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[eso76]

Either they decided to scrap generations and go with biannual updates (forward and backward compatible) or I don't see how.
The console they could release in 2018 would be twice as powerful as the Pro, marginally more powerful than the Scorpio. Basically only good to run checkerboard 4k games in native 4k and little else, unless there's some new groundbreaking tech round the corner I'm not aware of.
These mid gen updates kind of fucked the whole timing I think.

 

[Tajaz2426]

Lordy, I sure hope not. I upgraded to a PS4 Pro at release, upgraded to an XBox One S at release. I just got done building my i7 7700k, EVGA 1080 FTW2 Razer (Razer build with Razer H440 case) build.

I bought a Nintendo Switch when it was released and plan on getting a Scorpio, I sure could use a darn break, as I still want to upgrade my ram on my new build to some LED sticks.

 

[MaulerX]

This will be a sure fire way of losing their customers faith in their iterative hardware.

 

[Muchi Muchi Pink]

Ridiculous.

"I welcome 5 years cycles, more is too long"

So, instead of an unified platform with a big installed base and developers focusing efforts on that one platform you want to try and sabotage the success of the PS4 with a product nobody is asking for. And all because of what? Slightly better graphics?

Thank god these people aren't in charge, jesus. They tend to be the ones that don't even play that much, they just want their shiny hardware.

You guys bought all a PS4 pro.

 

[Baldwin_the_First]

I wouldn't be against it nor feel anything of it really, but I wouldn't be a early buyer for it that's for sure.

 

[Hux1ey]

If it brings completely new processors than I welcome it.

 

[BreakAtmo]

I'm thinking more like 2019, with things like a new AMD APU, a built-in SSD + replaceable HDD for storage (so every game would be built with the SSD in mind), PSVR 2 with quadrupled resolution, foveated rendering, built-in processor box, etc., and with checkerboard as an option in each game along with a high framerate.

 

[13ruce]

The PS4 is still selling very good there is no way they will release one in 2018.

2019 or 2020 3 years after PS Pro probably.

 

[DavidDesu]

2020 feels right. PS4 still feels quite new and fresh to me, and some of the games just look incredibly good. As an aside I'm also enjoying my Switch and honestly chasing raw graphics performance feels silly when the current gen can pull off games like Horizon or hell even Mario Kart 8 as a portable title.

I can wait, in fact for once I'm happy to sit on my cash and not throw it at the next big thing. I was going to get a Pro but for me personally it feels like a waste when the PS4 is still so good. Also, I'd much rather a real leap when I do buy my next console, rather than another Pro level of step up.

 

[StereoVsn]

I just don't see Sony going for PS5 before either 7nm or 10nm is available. It won't make sense due to power level and GPU size/power. So that means 2019 most likely which also gives 6 years from PS4 launch and 3 from the Pro.

Furthermore I can see Sony still selling either regular or Pro version of PS4 for a few years as the mass market option and vast majority of software will be supported due to similar architecture ala PCs.

 

[geordiemp]

The article is pretty stupid IMO.

The problem is not hardware, but software. This is a mistake MS did, but not Sony. Developers are not ready. Sony is not ready to do the jump. Without support there is no meaning to launch a new gen.

Do multi-platform games run on an i7 and 1080 or the new Titan ?

If the answer is yes, then devs are ready now as long as X86 and GCN remains.

 

[AmyS]

In theory, Sony releasing PS5 in 2018 would be hardware suicide. 2020 Is the best bet for PS5. reveal it early in the year at PlayStation Meeting, have a blowout at E3 2020, and launch in November, right around the next U.S. presidential election.

PSVR2 should follow 6 months later.

 

[Mathieran]

If they release PS5 next year I will probably wait to get it. I doubt it would be much of a leap over the Pro.

 

[wildfire]

It's fun to speculate but it's clear to me that PS5 will come out in 2019. The PS4 will be 6 years old and the Pro will be 3 years old.

They won't screw up the timing.


It will be interesting to see what the PS5 will look like after Sony has been able gauge trends from 2 years of the Scorpio and 2.7 years of Switch.

 

[ethomaz]

In theory, Sony releasing PS5 in 2018 would be hardware suicide. 2020 Is the best bet for PS5. reveal it early in the year at PlayStation Meeting, have a blowout at E3 2020, and launch in November, right around the next U.S. presidential election.

PSVR2 should follow 6 months later.

2019 is the right timing for launch but I'm not sure if 7nm will be mature enough.

 

[Fiendcode]

I think we'll see a Pro slim late this year, then PS5 in 2019.

 

[gafneo]

2018 PS5, 2023 PS5.5, 2025 PS6

 

[DieH@rd]

I think we'll see a Pro slim late this year, then PS5 in 2019.

Slim will arrive with a transistor node shrink, which means there will be no big hardware changes to Pro this year.

7nm process will arrive in a few years.

 

[jeffram]

7nm + ryzen + hbm in 2020 and 14tf

It really does depend on 7nm. Without it they won't push passed 50% TF improvement over Scorpio.

 

[LeleSocho]

2018 PS5? nah
Wouldn't look that different from ps4 and it would cost a lot to produce to be marginally better than the Pro.

Heck i would even say that 2020 might be too early.

 

[7DollarHagane]

Thr better proposal is to keep a $400 box on the shelf with a refresh of specs every 3 years or so. On the opposite years it gets bundled with software and dropped in price. The previous revision sells at $300 msrp.

After 3 cycles publishers can break compatability with previous models in new titles to improve their rngine capabilities.

 

[PLASTICA-MAN]

2019 is the right year in terms of the generation being "the right length", not as long as the horrendously drawn out previous generation, but not so short that games didn't have time to set themselves up.

2019 won't be where they want it, technically. The mid-gen refreshes only make sense if they're planning to draw it out longer than 2018, and probably more like 2020-2021. Even if we assume sub-native 4k is the target, as it is on PS4 Pro, that still means that you need essentially 16TF to get a 4x increase over PS4 Pro. If you say "the next gen will do 4k native" the comparisons get even worse since a portion of that 4x figure will be eaten by the increase in rendering resolution, and the actual power left over for other graphical things will be highly underwhelming for a generational transition.

In 2017, we have Nvidia chips doing 14tf. In 2018, we'll probably end out the year with the "Titan" level Nvidia chip pulling 20tf if it over-clocks well. But in terms of when that level of power will be available on a $399 console, the answer is 2020 and beyond.

Well said. Even 2019 is really very early for a true next-gen PS5. End of 2020-2021 will be the best period to release a new machine to meet the least of the expectations. Sony and Microsoft still have a wide margin to play with PS4 PRO and Scorpio that is why they released them to take their time for their next-gen consoles.

 

[Teletraan1]

Just release it when you have a proper Zen based APU. Make it compatible with Current PS4 and Pro games but start transitioning support to the PS5 and leave the PS4 in the trash heap by 2019/2020. Solves all the problems except for people who thought they were going to get 3-4 years out of a Pro before something better came out but those people were just lying to themselves to justify a purchase.

 

[RoboPlato]

Not expecting PS5 until 7nm hits.

That would allow for a massive boost in both CPU and GPU instead of just one.

2019 would be a decent goal if they want to still utilize techniques like checkerboard and temporal injection. If they really want to push increased fidelity at native 4k, it would probably be later.

Personally I think a zen CPU paired with a custom Vega GPU at 12tflops and focusing on improving the utilizion reconstruction techniques could be a very capable machine, even for games aiming for 60fps.

 

[PLASTICA-MAN]

Just release it when you have a proper Zen based APU. Make it compatible with Current PS4 and Pro games but start transitioning support to the PS5 and leave the PS4 in the trash heap by 2019/2020. Solves all the problems except for people who thought they were going to get 3-4 years out of a Pro before something better came out but those people were just lying to themselves to justify a purchase.

Core i9 is already coming this year and I don't think the PS5 could compete in the future if they use Zen at that time. We will see what kind of new APU they will pull then.

Not expecting PS5 until 7nm hits.

That would allow for a massive boost in both CPU and GPU instead of just one.

PS5 needs to be bigger jump from PS4 to what PS4 did from PS3 according to Moore's law and the exponential increase in hardware at the end of this decade.

 

[i-Lo]

What is the next BIG change that warrants a new generation right now? At least this gen we have had an almost ubiquitous implementation of PBR.

The refreshers improve on IQ or framerate or both but the base tech remains the same. As of right now we're targeting 4K when:

• Widespread tessellation is still absent
• Object & shadow pop in are still great issue and made FAR worse at higher resolution and
• LoD transitions are still shit
• Anisotropic filtering is still shit

At what point will the devs stop pushing prettier picture and deal with these fundamental issues that can affect immersion?

 

[ShowDog]

I wouldn't mind a shorter hardware cycle if the development time was shorter to match. The problem is game development is taking too long for a short cycle, a studio might only put out 1-2 games a generation on a 5 year cycle. Feels like missed opportunities and too much time on tech development as opposed to game design.

 

[Moon Presence]

Fall 19 is my prediction. By that point, all the big boys will be out(Death Stranding, TLOU2, SpiderMan, God Of War, GT Sport, Days Gone, SP's new IP, From's new game, etc ) and I would be very surprised if a studio like Guerrilla isn't already working on a next gen game, probably Horizon 2 as a launch game.

 

[InfiniteCombo]

I'm happy with my PS4 and could last a few years yet. The capabilities allow for games I find compelling and fun so I'm in no rush to upgrade.

+1

 

[Bgamer90]

It would be too soon if the PS4 Pro didn't exist.

The PS4 Pro exists so a PS5 coming out next year would be far too soon. There are still many PS4 exclusives coming soon (major ones) and it would be dumb for Sony to cut the PS4's momentum just for the sake of one upping the Scorpio in terms of power.

PS5 should release in Fall 2019 at the earliest. I'm thinking Fall 2020 though.

 

[pretty done]

2018 PS5? nah
Wouldn't look that different from ps4 and it would cost a lot to produce to be marginally better than the Pro.

Heck i would even say that 2020 might be too early.

2020 might be too early? The thing came out in 2013 ffs, it's been showing it's age for a while now.

5 years is long enough for a gen when the companies cheap out on hardware so much

 

[jeffc919]

2019 or 2020 feels like the right time for me. I definitely hope it's not any later than that though. I also hope that they do another mid-gen update and adopt a cycle where most games work on the 2 most recent hardware platforms. In other words, new PS5 hardware in '19/'20 with most new games supported on the PS5 and PS4 Pro and the OG PS4 being phased out. Then mid-gen an updated PS5-Pro comes out and the PS4 Pro is phased out.

 

[Shin]

What if it releases in 2019? What kind of specs can we expect for the same price as a PS4?

Wishful thinking on my part, but one can dream for Navi+, 512GB/s, 12TF, Ryzen+ 8core @ 4GHz and 32GB HBM3 if that's even possible.
It's crazy talk, but something along those lines for a PS5 at 449$ would make me more than happy.

 

[ShadowKingpin]

I would prefer a release in 2020. Give 1st Party a little more time to fully push the console.

 

[jelly]

I don't think you will see anything new until they can do 10nm or whatever is coming next, not worth it otherwise. PS4 Pro Slim in a year or two maybe if they can manage it on the same process. Big games take 3-6 years to make.

 

[Panajev2001a]

What is the next BIG change that warrants a new generation right now? At least this gen we have had an almost ubiquitous implementation of PBR.

The refreshers improve on IQ or framerate or both but the base tech remains the same. As of right now we're targeting 4K when:

• Widespread tessellation is still absent
• Object & shadow pop in is still a great issue and made FAR worse at higher resolution and
• LoD transitions are still shit
• Anisotropic filtering is still shit

At what point will the devs stop pushing prettier picture and deal with these fundamental issues that can affect immersion?

To be fair both Scorpio and PS4 Pro not having exclusive software and the great incentive for devs a new generation brings are IMHO not showing what they are capable of...

 

[Permanently A]

I would be very shocked. Because it honestly feels like the PS4 has barely any games compared to the gargantuan libraries of the PS2 and PS3.

 

[Eylos]

I expect 2019 i want 2020

 

[AcademicSaucer]

2 years of PS4 Pro seems reasonable.

 

[Apathy]

I mean in theory anything is possibly. Realistically hell no

 

[owasog]

What is the next BIG change that warrants a new generation right now? At least this gen we have had an almost ubiquitous implementation of PBR.

Good question. What kind of graphics horsepower improvements will make the average consumer run to the store to buy a PS5? Other than a 60 fps framerate, I can't think of anything that the PS4Pro doesn't already have.
Obviously nextgen will have better shadows, higher draw distances, better texture filtering, but that's scalable stuff already there for PC ports.
Without a wow factor, PS5 should not be released before 2020.

 

[facetheslayer92]

You won't hear about PS5 until 2020. The PS4 is on its way to 100+ million by then, don't take the wind out of its sails. They just got to milk their first party exclusives, have Rockstar put out the next GTA, and have Square drum up hype for FF7 Remake and KH3. PS5 will be an after thought with so many great PS4 games left.

 

[heathen]

This article isn't forward looking at all. It reads like what a PS5 could look like in 2017. 18 months from now TSMC 10nm won't be ready for console sized chips? Right.

 

[orioto]

Good question. What kind of graphics horsepower improvements will make the average consumer run to the store to buy a PS5? Other than a 60 fps framerate, I can't think of anything that the PS4Pro doesn't already have.
Obviously nextgen will have better shadows, higher draw distances, better texture filtering, but that's scalable stuff already there for PC ports.
Without a wow factor, PS5 should not be released before 2020.

I would think better motion blur, real global illumination, better simulation of things such as fabric, fluid etc.. are the thing that will make video game look more like cgi in movies. That's what people notice.

 

[The Praiseworthy]

There won't be PS5 before 2020..... earlier than that isn't reasonable at all.

 

[castaction]

i expect 2019 for the ps5

 

[Eylos]

I would prefer a release in 2020. Give 1st Party a little more time to fully push the console.

Yeah thats my concern, that in a 2019 release It Will be Like the PS4 release a lot of Cross gen and only knack and Killzone for a good time, then after some months infamous, then more waiting.


2020 would give developers more time and a better LINE up for release.

 

[icecold1983]

ideally for me, ps5 will launch when it can offer at least 15 tflops of gpu power. 8x should be the absolute minimum increase

 

[TLZ]

2019 the earliest IMO.

 

[PeakPointMatrix]

I wouldn't even pin an announcement down until E3 2020, with a launch in the Holiday. Way, waaay too early otherwise.