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Doctor, Doctor MAFIA | It's not Lupus

cabot

Member
DAY 1 BEGINS

The doctors gathered and rode the nostalgia wave on Theme Hospital, the unanimous favourite game ever choice.

Distant whispers could be heard talking about 'Game of the year' Kerbal Space Program.

The doctors grew angry.

1. [m] Sorian
2. [m] *Splinter
3. [m] Burbeting
4. [m] Ty4on
5. [m] squidyj
6. [m] Hobohodo
7. [m] CrimsonFist
8. [m] nin1000
9. [m] flatearthpandas

DAY 1 COUNTDOWN:
red_1470344400.png
 

Sorian

Banned
Is this a pre-typed post? Why yes, yes it is. I wouldn't want to get rusty.

So first off, considering the nature of this game, none of you really have anything to claim so telling you all to be careful on your claims would be useless. Everyone is a doctor, cool. Scum is going to pretend to be that and the utility of the nurse (what little there is) is lost if they claim. Keep in mind that with there being one nurse, that's essentially a get out of jail free card if you are about to be lynched. Scum could try that as well but they could just be trading a 1:1 with town if they claim nurse in a pinch and actually succeed.

Real order of business, let's talk pros and cons of revealing who we are going to target tonight. Not a choice to be made until closer to the end of the day but I've been thinking this one over since seeing the set-up. The con is the usual, scum would actively see what we are doing and can try to fudge the results and would also be able to work through where to hit so that they don't sloe their NK. The pro is that we can piece together what the dead are and with this set-up, we are probably looking at 2 kills a night on average (giving the CPR doc benefit of the doubt on being good on their targets) so being able to piece together that puzzle is going to be big on figuring out what pieces we have left to work with once the numbers dwindle down.

Another thing to note is we're in for a bad time if everyone acts N1, the results are going to be all over the place and we're in for the potential of a lot of death. Something to keep in mind since today, everyone is essentially a crap shoot.

VOTE: Ty4on

((For anyone who cares, when I ran random.org, I got a "1" result twice in a row before getting the 4 which was Ty4on. Go take a look at the player list for lolz.))
 

nin1000

Banned
It's 23:10 here and I am going to go to bed. But first I want to lay out my plan.
I am a doctor ( holy moly right?!) and therefore will try to save the MVP in this game. Guess who I will try to be saving?!

It's Sorian. Yes Sorian you will be the one I will hopefully be saving. Since there are 6 Doctors the chance of you dying will be 33%. It's high but I am swing to take the risk since I will take those 33%. Feel free to comment on the plan agree or disagree on it. He'll even take it apart and try to give me a better one. I would love to argue but for now I will head to bed. I cannot wait to read all those pages. I am pumped everyone and happy to be back from my long break. In love
Nin 2.0
 

Ty4on

Member
What happens if we all target the person after us in the list of names? (fep would target sorian)
I thought of this before starting the game. The easiest kills for scum are those they are supposed to target.

An alternative if we don't want everyone targeting is odd/even numbered people target either the person one or two places up (randomly so scum doesn't know whom they're targeting).
 

Sorian

Banned
It's 23:10 here and I am going to go to bed. But first I want to lay out my plan.
I am a doctor ( holy moly right?!) and therefore will try to save the MVP in this game. Guess who I will try to be saving?!

It's Sorian. Yes Sorian you will be the one I will hopefully be saving. Since there are 6 Doctors the chance of you dying will be 33%. It's high but I am swing to take the risk since I will take those 33%. Feel free to comment on the plan agree or disagree on it. He'll even take it apart and try to give me a better one. I would love to argue but for now I will head to bed. I cannot wait to read all those pages. I am pumped everyone and happy to be back from my long break. In love
Nin 2.0

Same headline as always I'm sure. Nin kills Sorian N1.

What happens if we all target the person after us in the list of names? (fep would target sorian)

Well, there are blank spots where scum are and they can mess with that as they see fit. We'd also definitely have a 2-3 kill night which I'm not sure I'm on board with. The CPR doc and quack doc (is that the one that's a straight vig?) would be narrowed down to 3 people though on the upside (scum would "frame" the 3rd potentially)
 

Burbeting

Banned
Hi. I can't say it's very surprising that the game began with pre-typed Sorian post :D. I do agree with most of his points, so that's good.

The important thing to figure out is if we reveal our targets before the day ends, like Sorian said. There are lot of pros to it (it's easier to piece together what happened during night later on), but also some cons (scum are able to mess up with the results).

Alternatively we could reveal our targets after the night has ended. That makes scum interference harder, but on the other hand we won't know who the dead people targeted during the night, which might be a bigger con. I would most likely lean on the "reveal before" camp, but I'd like to hear what others think.

What happens if we all target the person after us in the list of names? (fep would target sorian)

I mean, it's a possible tactic, but wouldn't that make CPR and Quack definitely kill someone? That would help us figure out who they are, but with 9 players...

D1 - 9
N1 - 8
D2 - 5 (assuming Scum, Quack, CPR kills)

We would be at LYLO at D2 situation (no mylo since no lynch isn't an option).
 

Burbeting

Banned
In general I think that the really short timespan we have until the game reaches LYLO can be a problem, especially if there are multiple night kills in more than one night phase.
 
Everyone targeting the person after us would probably maximise the number of deaths: (Vig target wouldn't be blocked unless the jailer was above them, and CPR doctor would hit someone otherwise not being killed), and scum could just target who they're supposed to to get a kill. We'd likely end up with three deaths in that scenario. Although non-zero odds on the vig or cpr doc hitting scum too. The main point of this I can see would be able to have some idea as to who has killing roles.

Otherwise, I do think that revealing targets is the best option. The only investigative role we have is the weak doctor, and the only way we can know who they targeted would be if everyone claims targets before hand. Over multiple nights, that should at least let us help figure things out.
 

*Splinter

Member
We would need to plan actions in advance to figure out powers. But is it even feasible to know what everyone (or most) does before the game ends? We aren't going to know what any one doctor is before tomorrow, maybe day 3 we will have ideas. I don't know our odds on even seeing day 4.

Maybe this shouldn't be the focus. Maybe we should be picking our top 3-4 townies and splitting everyone to protect them? Let me look at the docs again to see if that even protects them or not...
 

Sorian

Banned
No way I'm withholding my shot, Scumrian }:(

Of course you aren't, it's a move I would expect from a more grounded thinker.

In general I think that the really short timespan we have until the game reaches LYLO can be a problem, especially if there are multiple night kills in more than one night phase.

That's where some of this comes down to luck. The best way for town to win without luck is figure out each of our own powers but in the process of that, we are already hitting lylo.
 

squidyj

Member
Same headline as always I'm sure. Nin kills Sorian N1.



Well, there are blank spots where scum are and they can mess with that as they see fit. We'd also definitely have a 2-3 kill night which I'm not sure I'm on board with. The CPR doc and quack doc (is that the one that's a straight vig?) would be narrowed down to 3 people though on the upside (scum would "frame" the 3rd potentially)

we could potentially have a 4 kill night although a 4 kill night would guarantee us a scum lynch.
 

Burbeting

Banned
Out of the six doctor-roles (excluding the nurse here), only two of them give definitive protection, the ordinary doctor and the jailkeeper. The Weak doctor can give protection, but it can also end up on the weak doctor's death. The CPR and Paranoid doctors can kill (tiny chance of protection with CPR), and the naive doesn't affect the game at all.

That means only one third of the town powers are sure-fire of saving someone. Maybe half, if we count the Weak doctor in. I'm bringing this point out mostly due to what Nin posted:

It's Sorian. Yes Sorian you will be the one I will hopefully be saving. Since there are 6 Doctors the chance of you dying will be 33%. It's high but I am swing to take the risk since I will take those 33%. Feel free to comment on the plan agree or disagree on it. He'll even take it apart and try to give me a better one. I would love to argue but for now I will head to bed. I cannot wait to read all those pages. I am pumped everyone and happy to be back from my long break. In love
Nin 2.0

You targetting Sorian might not bring his chances of living higher, but instead bring it to zero.
 

*Splinter

Member
We would need to plan actions in advance to figure out powers. But is it even feasible to know what everyone (or most) does before the game ends? We aren't going to know what any one doctor is before tomorrow, maybe day 3 we will have ideas. I don't know our odds on even seeing day 4.

Maybe this shouldn't be the focus. Maybe we should be picking our top 3-4 townies and splitting everyone to protect them? Let me look at the docs again to see if that even protects them or not...
Ok so we have 3 doctors that protect, 1 that kills, 1 does nothing, CPR fucks everything up, and nurse wildcard. And 2 goons that presumably don't protect. I'm not sure that works...

Cabot, what happens if someone has 2 protections + the CPR on them?
Protect -> CPR Kill -> Protect = survive
Or
Protect -> Protect -> CPR Kill = die
 

*Splinter

Member
That should be true. It does give scum completely free reign to kill anyone else, though.
Yeah we'd essentially be playing vanilla at that point - at least to begin with. We could use it to keep the nurse alive but ehhhh.

I was thinking we could stack on the top suspect. 2 kills would be scum kill and weak doctor dying, so the target was scum

...but scum know who we're targeting, so they'd just withhold their kill. At that point they know even more than we do (weak is dead, 2 protectors left, no investigative ability)

Hummz
 
If everyone was on one target, and there were two deaths, we should assume that those are the weak doctor and the scum kill, which would confirm that target as scum.

But scum could interfere with that by withholding a kill? and less than 2 deaths wouldn't confirm the target as town.
 

Ty4on

Member
It feels so hard to get anything from a weak doctor dying.
If we have two unexplained deaths and therefore know one is from the weak doc we only have a confirmed scum if one of the doctors killed didn't target anyone.
 

Burbeting

Banned
And how would we know that the weak doctor died?

Well if we assume that if everyone piles up on one person, they survive, but scum can kill one person freely that night. So that's one NK. If weak doctor dies too, that would be two night kills.

Scum could circle around this by not killing anyone that night though, since they would know if town was about pile up on one of them. That makes the plan more unreliable.
 

*Splinter

Member
Cabot are you *sure* we don't learn doctor types when they flip? Seems like we can't get anywhere without that info
 

Sorian

Banned
So you propose to not target him at all? I mean if he is a mafia goon it would be a good thing to see him dead.

Ok now I am off to bed.

If anyone is a mafia goon, it would be good to see them dead, that's faulty logic though.

Well if we assume that if everyone piles up on one person, they survive, but scum can kill one person freely that night. So that's one NK. If weak doctor dies too, that would be two night kills.

Scum could circle around this by not killing anyone that night though, since they would know if town was about pile up on one of them. That makes the plan more unreliable.

Well yeah, that's my point though, I was hoping there was a scenario that we could come up with that didn't let scum so easily control the results, thinking about it pre-game I came up empty.

Vote: Sorian

you're probably scum this game, that's what I think anyway.

Ace detective work.
 

Hobohodo

Member
What would be gained by only half of us doing an action at night? I know we can't guarantee that players will stick to it but in theory it would only mean we aren't all tripping over each other and maybe make it easier to work what went on?
 

*Splinter

Member
What would be gained by only half of us doing an action at night? I know we can't guarantee that players will stick to it but in theory it would only mean we aren't all tripping over each other and maybe make it easier to work what went on?
Well we might narrow down those players quicker, but we'd leave the remaining as complete unknowns.

We could stack half and see if that results in a kill... But again scum can interfere with that.

I really don't think we will work out what anyone does. Even WITHOUT the scum kill it would be a challenge, and with that there are just too many unknowns.
 

Sorian

Banned
We don't even know if nurse flips as a nurse or a doctor (assuming nurse is not killed before any foctors).

It's fairly clear that the nurse would flip as nurse.

Squidy is probably right tho.

From the pure odds standpoint, he's probably wrong actually :p

What would be gained by only half of us doing an action at night? I know we can't guarantee that players will stick to it but in theory it would only mean we aren't all tripping over each other and maybe make it easier to work what went on?

This is more the camp I'm in. Everyone acting is just going to lead to issues or no info (in terms of a plan like everyone targeting the same person).
 

*Splinter

Member
9 town with 1 protect
2 scum

It's not quite vanilla, is it a town-sided set up?

At the moment I'm only against this because it's boring :(
 

Ty4on

Member
Well if we assume that if everyone piles up on one person, they survive, but scum can kill one person freely that night. So that's one NK. If weak doctor dies too, that would be two night kills.

Scum could circle around this by not killing anyone that night though, since they would know if town was about pile up on one of them. That makes the plan more unreliable.

I tried finding flaws (losing two "real" doctors), but the nurse kinda makes this bulletproof. The only issue is if the CPR doctor acts as some kind of strongman, but that seems weird.

One possible issue is we lynch our weak doctor D1 and chase shadows, but I think one NK per night would trip us up.
 

*Splinter

Member
It's fairly clear that the nurse would flip as nurse.



From the pure odds standpoint, he's probably wrong actually :p



This is more the camp I'm in. Everyone acting is just going to lead to issues or no info (in terms of a plan like everyone targeting the same person).
Good thing we aren't pulling names out of a hat then.

Well I cant speak for squidy. Maybe he was.
 

Burbeting

Banned
I tried finding flaws (losing two "real" doctors), but the nurse kinda makes this bulletproof. The only issue is if the CPR doctor acts as some kind of strongman, but that seems weird.

One possible issue is we lynch our weak doctor D1 and chase shadows, but I think one NK per night would trip us up.

What happens when scum would just not do a nk the night they are targeted? The weak cop would die without any help.
 

Ty4on

Member
What happens when scum would just not do a nk the night they are targeted? The weak cop would die without any help.

That's true. I tried to find a scenario where the number of doctors left to protect was so low the target would die, but it seems impossible on N1.
 
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