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[perfectchaos007]

and it looks like another bermuda storm will be following behind Charile!

 

[Xeke]

The coolest projections ever?

 

[Relix]

Invest 94L is well on his way to become our next TD and probably Tropical Storm. Outflow noted to the south and some forming to the north. New Orleans watch out.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Looks like Invest 94 aka TD5 made landfall, and looped around Mississippi and is now back over water. It could reform into something.

 

[Noisepurge]

i'm flying to Miami from Paris on saturday... Here's to hoping the plane can land!

Never been to Miami, good first experience to come during hurricane season.

 

[perfectchaos007]

i'm flying to Miami from Paris on saturday... Here's to hoping the plane can land!

Never been to Miami, good first experience to come during hurricane season.

you should be good. the wave in the gulf looks to be moving west away from Florida. You never know though something else could pop up in 6 days.

 

[perfectchaos007]

That Cape Verde wave looks promising.

 

[Hitokage]

So uh...


What happened? It's almost September.

 

[Relix]

So uh...


What happened? It's almost September.

It's been the quietest northern season (Pac and Atl) in over 100 years. Still... Season will soon pick up. Looks like 1995 and 1998 and 1950. Slow starters. Lots of hurricanes. The season is still prime, everything is set for explossion. The elements holding it back are nearly gone as well.

 

[Xeke]

 

[Hitokage]

I haven't really been keeping track, but is there a known factor that is inhibiting tropical development?

 

[Relix]

I haven't really been keeping track, but is there a known factor that is inhibiting tropical development?

It was related to that weird High setup in Russia. It caused a 60+ day heatwave there and that strange setup was inhibiting development in part. Also, there were an awful lot of Uper Level lows that create lots of shear for systems. Most systems so far have been affected by them. It was something unexpected and we'll need to wait some more months before scientists and meteorologists can determine what and why. There's a lot of stuff we don't know yet. So far it seems that we have once more an AB High setup in the north which will keep storms moving west from CV, unless a trough comes. One will come out soon which will allow our new CV wave to recurve to the sea. But it's all about timing, no one's sure yet. ULLs are less common now so we will probably see a rise in storms soon

 

[Xeke]

TD 6 has formed.

 

[Relix]

We should have our next hurricane in a couple hours

 

[Smiles and Cries]

shakes head

 

[Relix]

shakes head

Why? It should go to open sea. Well there's a risk to the NE Coast and Bermudas but it's too far out. Some were suggesting this could be the NYC Hurricane so many expect. Let's give it a few days.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Why? It should go to open sea. Well there's a risk to the NE Coast and Bermudas but it's too far out. Some were suggesting this could be the NYC Hurricane so many expect. Let's give it a few days.

I live in CT close to NYC so I'm not hoping for it to become anything

stop the cheering squad for these things

 

[perfectchaos007]

I live in CT close to NYC so I'm not hoping for it to become anything

stop the cheering squad for these things

Give me a H!
Give me a U!
Give me a R!
Give me a R!
Give me a I!
Give me a C!
Give me a A!
Give me a N!
Give me a E!

Whats that spell!?!

A Hurricane is coming for you! I'm sending it there because I cheered for it! Rah Rah!

 

[Relix]

I live in CT close to NYC so I'm not hoping for it to become anything

stop the cheering squad for these things

I love to get hit by a hurricane

It's probably gonna recurve and go towards Nova Scotia but who knows =P

 

[Smiles and Cries]

http://us.cnn.com/2010/US/08/23/tropical.storm.danielle/index.html?hpt=T2

(CNN) -- The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Storm Danielle to a hurricane, the second of the Atlantic season.


FUUUUU

I've been through enough of them... In Haiti when I was a kid, in Bridgeport CT in the 80s and down in Miami in 2004

 

[Hitokage]

stop the cheering squad for these things

Well, one actual benefit of hurricanes is the mass transport of moisture from the tropics to the temperate zones.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

They're stacking up now. It's a hurricane tango.

 

[Vestal]

Danielle Looks VERY VERY solid.

Personally Im not buying Danielle being a Fish right now.. The supposed recurve has yet to surface.. they will probably have to move the proyected path further west come next advisory.

 

[Xeke]

I live in CT close to NYC so I'm not hoping for it to become anything

stop the cheering squad for these things

They're some of the most interesting things on the earth.

 

[Relix]

 

[perfectchaos007]

poor Bermuda. Will the disturbance behind it follow Danielle?

 

[Relix]

poor Bermuda. Will the disturbance behind it follow Danielle?

At least until a certain point. By then the weakness between ridges that allowed Danielle to go that way will close. She will then steer west or WNW, maybe 55W and around the 19-20N Lat. Earl will be riskier to the EC, and the system has practically developed. We are just waiting for NAVY to issue the Invest renumber to 07L. It already has a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) since yesterday. Strangely though, it's been moving due west through the whole night. It was supposed to keep a 280-285 bearing (WNW) all the way through with maybe a west turn when it reached latitude 18L for a while.

Only NOGAPS forecast the west movement. Let's see what happens this could affect a lot of people, even the Antilles depending on how things work out. Fiona meanwhile seems like will form from that wave off Africa. The GOM trough split which NHC gives 10% won't do a thing surely.

 

[Relix]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al072010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008251224
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

We now have Tropical Depression 7 =), future Tropical Storm Earl.

000
WHXX01 KWBC 251234
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1234 UTC WED AUG 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072010) 20100825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100825 1200 100826 0000 100826 1200 100827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 30.3W 14.8N 33.8W 15.2N 37.0W 15.7N 40.1W
BAMD 14.2N 30.3W 15.0N 32.7W 16.0N 35.3W 17.1N 37.8W
BAMM 14.2N 30.3W 15.0N 33.3W 15.8N 36.5W 16.6N 39.5W
LBAR 14.2N 30.3W 14.7N 33.6W 15.4N 37.2W 16.3N 40.8W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100827 1200 100828 1200 100829 1200 100830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 43.1W 17.1N 48.7W 19.1N 54.8W 21.9N 59.5W
BAMD 18.1N 40.6W 19.4N 45.9W 20.5N 51.0W 22.5N 56.4W
BAMM 17.2N 42.6W 18.0N 48.9W 19.2N 54.6W 20.7N 58.3W
LBAR 17.0N 44.2W 17.8N 50.2W 17.7N 54.0W 19.7N 57.4W
SHIP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 85KTS
DSHP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 25.8W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 23.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

----

I bolded the current movement, west at 20 knots and the track I think is more feasible at the moment. LBAR ain't the best though =P

 

[perfectchaos007]

At least until a certain point. By then the weakness between ridges that allowed Danielle to go that way will close. She will then steer west or WNW, maybe 55W and around the 19-20N Lat. Earl will be riskier to the EC, and the system has practically developed. We are just waiting for NAVY to issue the Invest renumber to 07L. It already has a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) since yesterday. Strangely though, it's been moving due west through the whole night. It was supposed to keep a 280-285 bearing (WNW) all the way through with maybe a west turn when it reached latitude 18L for a while.

Only NOGAPS forecast the west movement. Let's see what happens this could affect a lot of people, even the Antilles depending on how things work out. Fiona meanwhile seems like will form from that wave off Africa. The GOM trough split which NHC gives 10% won't do a thing surely.

looks as if between 50W-55W the models start shifting the track northwest toward Bermuda though. As of now the models still have it as a fish storm so I suppose the models think theres still going to be a weakness in the ridge around that point? what are you seeing that would have you to believe the ridge is going to close?

 

[Gravijah]

As someone living in Fort Pierce, Florida I'm staying far away from this evil thread.

 

[Relix]

looks as if between 50W-55W the models start shifting the track northwest toward Bermuda though. As of now the models still have it as a fish storm so I suppose the models think theres still going to be a weakness in the ridge around that point? what are you seeing that would have you to believe the ridge is going to close?

Yeah that's about the point I say it starts recurving. It's obvious there will be a weakness there but timing is such a crucial factor. The ridge can grow stronger and close. Heck at the moment Danielle is moving WNW. It should be moving NW already and making that turn. Every hour that passes without a NW movement that means she gets closer to land and track should change. Half of the models bend Danielle at the end of their runs to the West and even stall her in the middle of the atlantic because the ridge would close.

If that scenario (ridge closing in the middle) happened, Earl could be absorbed into Danielle but it depends on its strength. Or it could very well take another track and ignore the weakness, probably aiming at the EC. Also, at the moment, TD7 (which the NHC just officially declared) is moving due west. She's expected to be at 14.7N LAT in 12 hours. She's at 14.1. If they miss that estimate the tracks will keep shifting south for now.

Those are the models I am telling ya

 

[Relix]

HURRICANE DANIELLE

(Auto Update images. For record/history purposes save them manually)

TD7/TROPICAL STORM EARL

 

[Dead Prince]

Good luck PR :lol

 

[Relix]

Good luck PR :lol

I think our luck will run out this year :lol

 

[Srsly]

Good luck PR :lol

Are you talking about future Earl? If so, its odds of hitting PR are quite low. Most likely, it will recurve well before even getting to 60W.

 

[Relix]

Are you talking about future Earl? If so, its odds of hitting PR are quite low. Most likely, it will recurve well before even getting to 60W.

Earl is a 50/50 chance. It will probably not recurve and follow Danielle seeing the current changes in the ridge and trough. Heck, I would say Danielle has a very high chance of a direct impact on Bermuda right now. It's too early to say anything about Earl but even the NHC puts it close to the islands. In fact, west motion should continue 36+ hours. Steering layers indicate pure west movement. This could be a close call. And I don't even want to talk about Fiona. That one will have the ridge over here and could move into the Caribbean. Of course these are week, 2 week forecasts. Way too long.

4 waves noted in Africa. Possible Fiona is seen in the coast, a weaker one right in the middle, another blob behind, and a bigger one in the east that has lots of potential. In fact all waves have potential. It has always been said this would be a CV season. We are seeing that now. You can also see the Indian ocean quite active. Expect a wave parade for 21 days or so. Just in time for September.

Edit: Dayuuuum. Earl (TD7 but its obvious its practically a TS) has some awesome banding.


EDIT2: Dr. Masters take:

Track forecast for Danielle
The trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean steering Danielle more to the northwest will wane in influence over the next two days, as a ridge of high pressure moves north of the storm. This will keep Danielle moving generally northwest towards Bermuda over the next three days. On Saturday, a new trough of low pressure that is expected to move off the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada should begin pulling Danielle due north, eventually recurving the storm out to sea without hitting land. However, one model--the NOGAPS--predicts that Danielle will be moving too slowly and that the new trough will not be strong enough to recurve Danielle out to sea. The NOGAPS keeps Danielle moving on a northwest course, passing very close to Bermuda, and coming perilously close the Northeast U.S. coast 7 - 8 days from now. The NOGAPS is an outlier in the models, and the official NHC forecast follows the consensus of our other reliable models, calling for Danielle to turn towards the north this weekend and miss Bermuda. These models include the three best-performing models from last year at making 4 - 5 day forecasts--the Canadian, ECMWF, and GFS models. Assuming Danielle follows the official NHC track, Bermuda can expect the storm's outer winds to reach the island Saturday night. NHC is giving Bermuda a 39% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Danielle, and a 9% chance of getting hurricane force winds.

History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 15% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. However, Danielle will bring high surf conditions to the U.S. East Coast beginning this weekend. The latest wave forecast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model (which uses the GFS model as its prediction for the position and intensity of hurricanes), calls for waves from Danielle to begin hitting the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. These waves will build to 6 - 9 feet in the offshore waters from Northern Florida to North Carolina by Sunday. The latest nearshore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 5 - 8 foot waves Saturday through Sunday. Waves will be much higher in Bermuda, where the Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 10 - 15 foot waves this weekend.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Seven
Wind shear is predicted to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next three days. SSTs will cool a bit to 27.5°C by Thursday, but this is still above the 26.5°C threshold for hurricane development. TD 7 may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which may interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for TD 7 over the next three days. The SHIPS model is indicating an increase in wind shear to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, 4 - 5 days from now. In combination, these factors should allow for a slow intensification of TD 7 into Hurricane Earl 4 -5 days from now.

The long range fate of TD 7 remains unclear. The storm is being steering by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. As TD 7 approaches the central Atlantic 4 - 6 days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that is expected to turn Danielle to the north. This trough should be able to turn TD 7 far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, it is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve TD 7 out to sea, east of Bermuda. This will, in part, depend upon how strong Danielle gets and how fast it moves. A stronger Danielle is likely to create more of a break in the ridge of high pressure steering TD 7, encouraging the storm to turn north and recurve out to sea. A weaker Danielle will make TD 7 more likely to miss recurvature, and follow a track to the west or west-northwest towards the U.S. East Coast early next week. History suggests that a storm in TD 7's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.

Dr. masters has been a bit off lately but its his forecast. Let's see how it pans out!

 

[Dead Prince]

Are you talking about future Earl? If so, its odds of hitting PR are quite low. Most likely, it will recurve well before even getting to 60W.

I always cheer that it hits. it's one of things my friends do because I guess storms are fun :lol

 

[Relix]

I always cheer that it hits. it's one of things my friends do because I guess storms are fun :lol

Storms are awesome. Hortense, Marilyn and then Georges with the Luis scare in 1995. I was a kid there and was thrilled by them, especially Georges. Oh God Georges was fucking awesome here. Of course damage and all that, but I like to be selfish about this. I like them. Jeanne was pretty good too. I remember trekking out mid-storm to watch shit fly and the SUV to sway with the wind haha.

 

[Srsly]

Earl is a 50/50 chance. It will probably not recurve and follow Danielle seeing the current changes in the ridge and trough. Heck, I would say Danielle has a very high chance of a direct impact on Bermuda right now. It's too early to say anything about Earl but even the NHC puts it close to the islands. In fact, west motion should continue 36+ hours. Steering layers indicate pure west movement. This could be a close call. And I don't even want to talk about Fiona. That one will have the ridge over here and could move into the Caribbean. Of course these are week, 2 week forecasts. Way too long.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

"The long range fate of TD 7 remains unclear. The storm is being steering by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. As TD 7 approaches the central Atlantic 4 - 6 days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that is expected to turn Danielle to the north. This trough should be able to turn TD 7 far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, it is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve TD 7 out to sea, east of Bermuda. This will, in part, depend upon how strong Danielle gets and how fast it moves. A stronger Danielle is likely to create more of a break in the ridge of high pressure steering TD 7, encouraging the storm to turn north and recurve out to sea. A weaker Danielle will make TD 7 more likely to miss recurvature, and follow a track to the west or west-northwest towards the U.S. East Coast early next week. History suggests that a storm in TD 7's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast."

I would personally give Earl a less than 10% chance of hitting PR. Even if it doesn't recurve (partially or fully), it is still unlikely to directly strike PR.

 

[dskillzhtown]

So uh...


What happened? It's almost September.

My gf was saying the same thing. She just moved here and her hurricane paranoia has completely died down. Of course Ike happened in mid-September, so it isn't over yet.

Though it would have been nice to have atleast a tropical storm hit the gulf to break up this heat wave.

 

[dskillzhtown]

I always cheer that it hits. it's one of things my friends do because I guess storms are fun :lol

They certianly are exciting. The entire build up, the stocking up on water, batteries, etc. Then the storm itself with the winds and rain. Even though I hated the 2 weeks of no power afterwards, the actual night/morning of Ike was very exciting.

 

[Srsly]

My gf was saying the same thing. She just moved here and her hurricane paranoia has completely died down. Of course Ike happened in mid-September, so it isn't over yet.

Though it would have been nice to have atleast a tropical storm hit the gulf to break up this heat wave.

I'm not sure what you were expecting -- it's not even the peak of hurricane season (sept. 10th is) and you're unlikely to get hit by a TC in any given year.

 

[Relix]

I would personally give Earl a less than 10% chance of hitting PR. Even if it doesn't recurve (partially or fully), it is still unlikely to directly strike PR.

I am constantly in Dr. Master's blog :lol Like I said there, I actually believe there's a medium chance of at least some effects aside from waves. It's highly doubtful it's gonna recurve and even more so with the recent model shifts of Danielle aiming at NJ/NY.

Also Dr. M has been more interested in global warming lately than forecasts and stuff. He's been very off this year.

 

[Dead Prince]

They certianly are exciting. The entire build up, the stocking up on water, batteries, etc. Then the storm itself with the winds and rain. Even though I hated the 2 weeks of no power afterwards, the actual night/morning of Ike was very exciting.

Growing up I was fine since internet and computer didn't come to me until I got older. I guess I enjoyed playing outside in the rain. I even tried to fly a kite during Hurricane Andrew.

Since i'm older I still enjoy the sound of rain but hate power outage. but the last couple of years kinda suck. and this year.. wtf :lol

at least I can hope for another snow day in Louisiana :lol.

 

[Srsly]

I am constantly in Dr. Master's blog :lol Like I said there, I actually believe there's a medium chance of at least some effects aside from waves. It's highly doubtful it's gonna recurve and even more so with the recent model shifts of Danielle aiming at NJ/NY.

Danielle isn't going to hit NJ/NY, no way at all..not with a 594 DM upper-level ridge parked over that region.

 

[Duane Cunningham]

So it doesn't look like any of these will hit The Bahamas next week, huh? It'll probably just make it rainy the whole time we're there.

 

[Relix]

Danielle isn't going to hit NJ/NY, no way at all..not with a 594 DM upper-level ridge parked over that region.

There's a good chance. That trough is not as strong as forecast, Danielle has been moving at a 285 general direction for now. The effects of the trough change. Heck she's expected to have effects on Bermuda and may even post a high threat to them in a day or so. That ridge will move westward as well, which is what models are suggesting and causes Danielle to stall mid-atlantic, allowing her to then resume WNW movement. The models are seeing it, but doesn't mean that's gonna happen.

Check the steering layers here:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPSTEERATL_0z/comploop.html

And see what some of the models are suggesting could happen. And they seem kinda spot on. That trough isn't as strong as advertised.

(Besides there's no High over the NYC area, but in the sea to the east)

The High you say is the one to the left. See how it's blocking Danielle at the moment? It all depends on what happens with the trough. Upper levels look so chaotic there :lol :lol

 

[Srsly]

A hurricane is not moving into that

 

[Relix]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_102l.gif

A hurricane is not moving into that[/QUOTE]

No, they just skirt around the edges =P. Remember that come the next days that should move out of the way. I am absolutely not saying this is impacting NYC directly, I give it a 30% chance, but its always possible.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Daaaamn Cape Verde is on a roll. It's spitting out storms like the Duggar lady spits out babies. I bet Fiona follows Earl within 3 days.