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[Baraka in the White House]

From Eric Berger:

HOUSTON EFFECTS

Everyone here wants the rain Louisiana is going to get in abundance. The following map shows the latest rainfall accumulation estimate from the GFS model for the next eight days:

Eight-day rainfall accumulation estimate. (Ryan Maue)

This estimate brings about 1 inch of rain into the Houston area. At this point I think the city would be fairly fortunate to see widespread accumulations of 1 inch or more, although its certainly possible with such a large and unpredictable system.

Unless the storm makes a substantial wobble to the west we’re also unlikely to feel much wind from the system, except for coastal areas where winds and tides will be a bit higher.

There’s good and bad news in the long-range forecast. The models still bring the season’s first cold front into the greater Houston area on Monday. Yes, it’s really going to happen. Daytime temperatures should fall to about 90 degrees and overnight lows will be in the 60s. It may not sound like that much, but it will feel heavenly after August.

The downside is that the front will bring very, very dry air with it. In other words, if we don’t get rain this weekend we’re probably not going to get any for quite awhile.

Unfuckingbelievable.

Louisiana's practically falling into the ocean, let's give 'em a fuckload of rain.

Texas is about to pop in a giant cloud of dust. Fuck 'em, here's a surge of dry air.

You're a cruel bitch, nature.

 

[pestul]

How long do we have until this thing makes its mind up?

Probably won't have a clear picture for at least 48hrs.. probably 72.

 

[Miggytronz]

How long do we have until this thing makes its mind up?

could be never. Hurricanes are just as unpredictable as Tornados.

 

[mckmas8808]

so basically Katia is probably going to hit the east coast and depending on how fast it curves back out to sea it could drill new york/new england, or am i just completely reading this wrong?

That's the way I read it too. But we'll learn more in 3 days. Right now it's more about Mr. 13.

 

[HylianTom]

From Eric Berger:

Unfuckingbelievable.

Louisiana's practically falling into the ocean, let's give 'em a fuckload of rain.

Texas is about to pop in a giant cloud of dust. Fuck 'em, here's a surge of dry air.

You're a cruel bitch, nature.

Not funny.

I'm about to move back to NOLA (from Austin), and the last thing I need is for my parents' house to flood.
(of course.. they need to move the hell out of where they're living. I've been lecturing and lecturing, and they don't listen. dammit.)

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Not funny.

I'm about to move back to NOLA (from Austin), and the last thing I need is for my parents' house to flood.
(of course.. they need to move the hell out of where they're living. I've been lecturing and lecturing, and they don't listen. dammit.)

I don't think we're in disagreement here. NOLA doesn't need 20 inches of rain, but we sure as hell do.

 

[MiketheBSG]

Welcome Tropical Storm Lee. Lee officially formed into a 40 mph storm. And according to the latest, it could hit Lousiana twice thanks to the cold front swinging through the area, it's going to do a loop. Lousiana may get some serious ran out of this.

On a side note, wow Texas, did we get screwed out of some rain or what? There was a TUTT low that was suppose to swing through ahead of the cold front and this was going to bring lots of rain to the state. Thanks to Tropical Storm Lee, all that moisture got sucked into the storm and away from Texas. I've been watching the storm for a while and I couldn't believe my eyes a few days ago when signs of Lee was starting to show in the models.

 

[HylianTom]

I don't think we're in disagreement here. NOLA doesn't need 20 inches of rain, but we sure as hell do.

What has frightened me the most hasn't been the dying grass or the water restrictions or the day after day of cloudless skies; it's been that the number of yellowing/drying-up/dying trees is now becoming much more visible. Friends and co-workers have been quietly nervous up until the past month or so, but now more people are beginning to talk about it.

What happens if there's another year or two of this? I don't want to think about it.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

What happens if there's another year or two of this? I don't want to think about it.

Fuck that dude, 2012 has to be better. This shit we've had in 2011 was like a 1 in 10,000 year weather event.

It has to be better, right?

It's kind of silly how worked up I'm getting over this, but talk about the ultimate trolling of Texas.

 

[mckmas8808]

Welcome Tropical Storm Lee. Lee officially formed into a 40 mph storm. And according to the latest, it could hit Lousiana twice thanks to the cold front swinging through the area, it's going to do a loop. Lousiana may get some serious ran out of this..

How far is it going to go before it loops back and hits Louisiana? And how long with this whole process take?

We really need some rain in Texas geez.

 

[AirBrian]

FU, Lee!

 

[AbsoluteZero]

Starting to get nervous now. The storm going to be over Louisiana for practically five days unless things change. We can't handle that much rain for such an extended period of time.

 

[cajunator]

This is some God-Tier trolling on Texas, Nature.

 

[bigtroyjon]

Looking at the sat images and Katia looks like a cell splitting in half. So disorganized that I don't think any of the forecasts are worth looking at right now.

Sat images

 

[BigJonsson]

Looking at the sat images and Katia looks like a cell splitting in half. So disorganized that I don't think any of the forecasts are worth looking at right now.

Sat images

You think its going to split in 2? Would that be 2 hurricanes or a weaker hurricane and a bad storm?

 

[Snkfanatic]

If a High builds in the atlantic its very likely its gonna hit the east cost, how? nobody knows. Right now it looks like its not taking a solid northerly track at all and B lining towards NC/VA. So we'll see by weekends end to see where it is.

FUuuuuu lol I don't want another one right now. Will just have to keep an eye on it

 

[bigtroyjon]

You think its going to split in 2? Would that be 2 hurricanes or a weaker hurricane and a bad storm?

I don't think it's going to split into two(is that even possible?), that was just a reference to what the images look like, a biological cell splitting in two.

 

[BigJonsson]

I don't think it's going to split into two(is that even possible?), that was just a reference to what the images look like, a biological cell splitting in two.

Oh ok, yea, it does look like that

 

[cajunator]

It hasn't split into two. The center is somewhere under the lower blow of convection.

 

[Dead Prince]

FU, Lee!

it's okay. i'll make sure to blog it here how there's too much rain.

 

[cajunator]

It sucks that I have to work tomorrow. People are buying gas like crazy again.
Gonna be a busy Saturday night.

 

[Dead Prince]

It sucks that I have to work tomorrow. People are buying gas like crazy again.
Gonna be a busy Saturday night.

oh. should fill up the tank then lol. gas will be high on tuesday lol.

 

[cajunator]

I know what the prices are and when they will go up around here. I work as a fuel tanker dispatcher. I already filled up my car yesterday before the shit went down. Didn't have to wait at all.

Heeeere comes the rain. Glorious rain.

 

[mckmas8808]

I know what the prices are and when they will go up around here. I work as a fuel tanker dispatcher. I already filled up my car yesterday before the shit went down. Didn't have to wait at all.

Heeeere comes the rain. Glorious rain.

You live in Louisiana?

 

[cajunator]

Yeah.

 

[Xeke]

Lee and Katia merge on the east coast for a perfect storm.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Lee and Katia merge on the east coast for a perfect storm.

Perfect Storm gets overused, but what would happen if two systems got close enough?

Do they merge or repel each other?

 

[Miggytronz]

Outflow at the upper levels of the stronger storm will tear apart the weaker one. So they fight but the weaker one loses.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

^thanks

Any chance of Lee hitting CAT 1?

Sitting on the warmest waters on Earth right

 

[bigtroyjon]

^thanks

Any chance of Lee hitting CAT 1?

Sitting on the warmest waters on Earth right

22% chance of turning into cat 1 on Sunday.
Link

 

[Miggytronz]

small chance, but i wouldnt be surprised if it did. giving how hot the water is and how dry the air is coming from TEXAS.

 

[TheDrizzlerJ11]

My sister's such an idiot. Lived in SoFla for 30 years and she plans her wedding in the height of hurricane season. Wedding is Friday / Saturday, if Katia is hitting us it's probably gonna be Thursday / Friday?

All of these storms are so damn big this season

 

[NH Apache]

Oh yeah? Where at?

delayed reply, but Chartres and Toulouse. Working tomorrow morning, but I think I'm going to skip my shift on Sunday and head to the North Shore.

Whoops, edit.

 

[TheDrizzlerJ11]

Perfect Storm gets overused, but what would happen if two systems got close enough?

Do they merge or repel each other?

I'm imagining how gears link together and am picturing two really powerful storms with one right behind the other.

Nvm my imagination is broken. Linking gears rotate opposite each other.

 

[Relix]

Storms/Hurricanes DO NOT merge. Fujiwhara Effect takes hold, and if both storms are relatively strong and similar they will rotate around a common center in the middle between both. If one is stronger than the other and the steering is for them to collide the outflow from the strongest storm will basically kill the weaker one.

On a funny note:

 

[Bad_Boy]

update track pic for new page

north carolina is al bundy

 

[cajunator]

Storms/Hurricanes DO NOT merge. Coriolis Effect takes hold, and if both storms are relatively strong and similar they will rotate around a common center in the middle between both. If one is stronger than the other and the steering is for them to collide the outflow from the strongest storm will basically kill the weaker one.

It's also called the Fujiwhara effect.

 

[bigtroyjon]

11PM updates out and Katia moved pretty much directly west in the last 6 hours.(.1N, .8W)

 

[Relix]

It's also called the Fujiwhara effect.

Jesus Christ this! Not Coriolis effect! LOL! Coriolis is the effect of rotation due to Earth's movement. Whoooops!

 

[Miggytronz]

11PM updates out and Katia moved pretty much directly west in the last 6 hours.(.1N, .8W)

*sigh*

 

[Relix]

*sigh*

Not sure why NHC still called for a NW movement.

 

[Pollux]

11PM updates out and Katia moved pretty much directly west in the last 6 hours.(.1N, .8W)

So New England is safe?

 

[Miggytronz]

So New England is safe?

dont count yourself out just yet. Hurricane could get a shove and head dead north like Irene.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Doesn't seem funny to me in the least right now. We haven't had one fucking drop from Lee. Forecasters totally shit the bed for us on this one, that the Louisiana track was the least likely scenario was all they've been parroting this week.

The Houston area alone has lost 10% of its trees so far. That's about 66 million if my memory serves.

The drought's gone from a nuisance to concerning to depressing to frustrating.

 

[AlimNassor]

So no rain like ever? Oh well I didn't like it anyways

 

[teh_pwn]

Doesn't seem funny to me in the least right now. We haven't had one fucking drop from Lee. Forecasters totally shit the bed for us on this one, that the Louisiana track was the least likely scenario was all they've been parroting this week.

The Houston area alone has lost 10% of its trees so far. That's about 66 million if my memory serves.

The drought's gone from a nuisance to concerning to depressing to frustrating.

I expect significant wildfires soon in the Austin area. Lots of grass has turned into dirt. Trees are sickly redish/dark brown/yellow, many are completely dead. Tap water tastes like lukewarm bath water.

 

[cajunator]

Can somebody take pictures of the drought conditions?
Sounds pretty extreme, like a mini dust-bowl.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Can somebody take pictures of the drought conditions?
Sounds pretty extreme, like a mini dust-bowl.

I'm heading to Corpus Christi tomorrow and I'll try and take some roadside photos of the dried up ponds and dead fields I'm sure I'll encounter along the way. When I'm back I'll try and run over to Lake Houston, the water levels there are a pretty good illustration of how bad it's gotten.

Seriously, Lee could have dumped 20 inches of rain on us and we'd probably celebrate our almost fully replenished lakes and aquifers. Even then we'd still technially be behind a few inches of rain for the year, I think

 

[LOCK]

As a Plant Biologist I would like to see some images of the trees also. It is interesting to determine if they are dying or going into hybernation. If they are dying then you guys are in so much trouble.

Plus then that means it will take large quantities of water to satisfy the flora, much less fauna and refilling lakes.

 

[Applesauce]

Can somebody take pictures of the drought conditions?
Sounds pretty extreme, like a mini dust-bowl.

I planned on getting some shots of Lake Houston tomorrow. The fishing pier here is probably the most telling sight, if you were to cast your line out from the front it would be in about 2 feet of water. It's pretty bad.