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Hurricane Season 2013

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K

Konka

Banned
Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its predictions for hurricane activity, ahead of the official start of the storm season June 1. In the Atlantic, NOAA forecasts an active season with 13 to 20 named storms. Seven to 11 of those storms, NOAA said, could actually develop into Category 1 or higher hurricanes. As many as three to six of them have the potential to become Category 3 or higher hurricanes.

NOAA’s predictions for the 2013 hurricane season are comparable to those of other independent groups such as AccuWeather.com and Penn State University’s Earth System Science Center. All cite a similar cocktail of conditions that set the stage for a more active season.

“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive wind patterns coming from Africa.”

In 2012, when hurricanes Sandy and Isaac made landfall, there were 10 named storms. Destruction from Hurricane Sandy was so great that NOAA is now rethinking its approach to storm surge forecasts.

Meanwhile, activity in the Eastern and Central Pacific was predicted to be below normal.
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http://newswatch.nationalgeographic...ers-predict-active-atlantic-hurricane-season/

Hey everyone. This starts tomorrow. And just in time...

d3526a9b-d667-49c8-b616-1f6debdfa801_650x366.jpg

Potential First Named Storm in Gulf Ahead
Click to expand...

Remember Barbara?

Hurricane Barbara came ashore in southern Mexico Wednesday, a rare May hurricane landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico.

What does this have to do with a potential Gulf of Mexico threat?
Background

While Barbara's surface circulation dissipated one day after landfall, a weak low-mid level trough of low pressure remains, as you can see by looping our interactive satellite of the Gulf of Mexico.

Furthermore, surface pressures remain low in the southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Convection is, at times, festering near this "Barbara remnant" (shown by the the most vivid orange and red shadings in the satellite image above right).

For now, this festering area is disorganized, however winds aloft over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico aren't an inhibiting factor.

"Andrea" Next Week?

Numerical models which meteorologists use to diagnose the forecast are typically, and for good reason, taken with a bit of skepticism beyond five days in the tropics.

One of these models, the Global Forecast System or GFS model, has previously shown a tendency in the extended period (beyond seven days out) to spin up "boguscanes", a term coined by National Hurricane Center Senior Hurricane Specialist, Jack Beven in 1999 to describe model forecasted tropical cyclones that don't eventually happen.

In fairness, it makes sense that forecasting whether a cluster of thunderstorms will congeal and persist near a surface low pressure center in an unstable atmosphere lacking hostile wind shear five days out or more may be a challenge even for today's sophisticated numerical models.

With that said, seeing forecast trends and the large-scale pattern can at least give meteorologists an early heads up on a potential scenario.

Such appears to be the case next week.

If the "festering area" of convection persists and surface low pressure is able to form near the convection, a tropical depression or storm may form next week. Furthermore, forecast guidance suggests winds aloft may steer this entity toward the U.S. Gulf Coast late next week.

As you can see from the image above at right, this is a common path for named storms in the month of June.
Click to expand...

http://www.wunderground.com/news/potential-gulf-tropical-threat-20130531

590x362_05301322_severe3.png


GFS is putting landfall on the Florida panhandle with the European has Andrea farther west towards texas.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
Thanks for starting the thread.

All forecasts are predicting an active to hyperactive season.

CSU forecast :
Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2013 - PDF Format



2013 NHC Hurricane Preparedness Videos: Day 1 — Overview of a Hurricane
2013 NHC Hurricane Preparedness Videos : Day 2 — Storm Surge
2013 NHC Hurricane Preparedness Videos : Day 3 — Wind
2013 NHC Hurricane Preparedness Videos : Day 4 — Inland Flooding
2013 NHC Hurricane Preparedness Videos : Day 5 — The Forecast Process
2013 NHC Hurricane Preparedness Videos: Day 6 — Get a Plan!
2013 NHC Hurricane Preparedness Videos : Day 7 — Taking Action
 
R

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
Let me sub this so I don't make the thread again like an idiot haha. First TWO of the year as well!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND
3...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ANDREA AN- DREE UH LORENZO LOH REN- ZOH
BARRY BAIR- REE MELISSA MEH LIH- SUH
CHANTAL SHAHN TAHL- NESTOR NES- TOR
DORIAN DOR- EE AN OLGA OAL- GUH
ERIN AIR- RIN PABLO PAHB- LO
FERNAND FAIR NAHN- REBEKAH REH BEH- KUH
GABRIELLE GA BREE ELL- SEBASTIEN SUH BASH- CHUHN
HUMBERTO OOM BAIR- TOH TANYA TAHN- YUH
INGRID ING- GRID VAN VAN
JERRY JEHR- EE WENDY WEN- DEE
KAREN KAIR- REN

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER
THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE
1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE CAN ALSO BE USED
IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS ALSO ISSUED TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF INFORMATION REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND THE
CENTER CAN BE EASILY TRACKED WITH LAND-BASED RADAR. TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT
WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
http://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONA ... CENTER.GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED IS
AVAILABLE AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Click to expand...
 
C

cajunator

Banned
At least my Dad's radio tower has a hazer set up so we dont have to climb up there and take the antenna down. Much more convenient.
I also dont dispatch the New Orleans terminal anymore at work so the repercussions of a hurricane in the Gulf arent quite as bad (but still going to be crazy)
 
P

PrimaNocta

Member
As a florida native, I need to ready my survival kit which consist of Hennessy, a few joints & boxes of Oreos & Welch's Fruit Snacks.

Bring your worst!
 
T

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Come to Austin. Fill Lake Travis and keep the area < 85 all Summer please.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
Colorado State University June forecast for this season is out, no change in the numbers since the last forecast.

The important parts :

The team predicts that tropical cyclone activity in 2013 will be about 175 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2012 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was 131 percent of the average season.

The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil in 2013 are:

&#8226; Entire U.S. coastline &#8211; 72 percent (average for last century is 52 percent)

&#8226; U.S. East Coast including Florida Peninsula &#8211; 48 percent (average for last century is 31 percent)

&#8226; Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas &#8211; 47 percent (average for last century is 30 percent)

&#8226; Caribbean &#8211; 61 percent (average for last century is 42 percent)
Click to expand...

http://www.news.colostate.edu/Release/6880
 
M

maquiladora

Member
Canadian model is showing a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane heading for northwest Florida in 4 days. The other (better) models don't develop it as much though.

D0EmJSc.gif
 
M

maquiladora

Member
Up to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE..40 PERCENT..OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA..CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
Click to expand...
 
M

maquiladora

Member
50%. Slowly getting there, but it's not going to be anything stronger than a Tropical Storm at best.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Click to expand...
 
N

NH Apache

Banned
Just moved into a no flood zone (but got insurance anyway). I was talking to a couple people who work for NWS in New Orleans and they were thinking 3-4 big storms this year over Cat 3.

This actually might be the year to get the survival bags ready.
 
S

StrikerObi

Member
Tallahassee, FL here. Thankfully we're up in the top-east corner of the gulf so storms usually calm down by going over the rest of the state first. And when they come in via the gulf and recharge there first, they rarely turn sharp enough to hit us directly. Hurricane season here (been here since 2002) typically amounts of a fucking shitload of rain and occasional flooding.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
NH Apache said:
Just moved into a no flood zone (but got insurance anyway). I was talking to a couple people who work for NWS in New Orleans and they were thinking 3-4 big storms this year over Cat 3.

This actually might be the year to get the survival bags ready.
Click to expand...
I've got a storage closet at home full of baby wipes, nutri-bars, rice, etc etc. Enough food to feed three for a month or two, and enough water for at least a week or two. Then, I also have a secret cache of food & water at the hospital as well. Uptown never floods, but I still want to be prepared for the aftermath. I've got a feeling of dread for this year for some reason..
 
N

NH Apache

Banned
HylianTom said:
I've got a storage closet at home full of baby wipes, nutri-bars, rice, etc etc. Enough food to feed three for a month or two, and enough water for at least a week or two. Then, I also have a secret cache of food & water at the hospital as well. Uptown never floods, but I still want to be prepared for the aftermath. I've got a feeling of dread for this year for some reason..
Click to expand...

Same. We're moving inton the garden district by Washington and even though technically we are in that no flood zone, the seriousness from the NOAA/NWS guys kinda put the fear of god in me.

This weird foreboding feeling.
 
M

Macattk15

Member
Are any of these assholes predicted to come close to the NE coast of the US? I hope not.

Probably wayyy too early to tell.

I'm sick of working them (power company).
 
G

GazzaScotland

Member
Just back home from Florida this week, seeing all the coverage on the news for people to get prepared. Hopefully it isn't as busy a season as they are predicting and everyone stays safe.

The weather might be terrible here, but I'm thankful I don't have to live with the extremes the US often faces. Luckily never been caught up in any when I've been over
 
H

Hex

Banned
MIMIC said:
Moved to Tampa.

Can't wait for my first hurricane. w00t

</recklessness talk>
Click to expand...

Here is my best advice from living here as long as I have.
Chinese places are ALWAYS open.
No matter how shitty the weather is, count on it. (But tip well if you make them come to you)
 
S

sqwarlock

Member
Going to Florida in three weeks. Wonder if I'll encounter a storm this year. I was out there during Debby last year, and it was pretty interesting since we don't get storms like that too often in Arizona.
 
C

CF_Fighter

Member
Glad we're getting all this rain in the Tampa area, God knows we need it. Shame it had to come from a TS and not just regular rain showers. No tornado warning here in Sarasota...yet.

Valkyr Junkie said:
My St. Augustine grass is gonna be knee high before it dries out enough for me to cut it.
Click to expand...

Same here and our mower gave up the ghost last week so I'm gonna have a good few weeks of growth to cut through.
 
K

Kaladin

Member
This should be a fun day, right in Andrea's path across the GA line.

F you Andrea for making me pull out my umbrella.
 
T

TheSeks

Blinded by the luminous glory that is David Bowie's physical manifestation.
^^^ Gainesville or am I thinking of another area?
 
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