I think Lin would work best in a D'Antoni system, which is more PG-centric than most, and SSOL definitely seems to benefit him, since he seems to do best before defenses are set up. The Knicks have Lin if they want him for the next 5 years anyway.
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Jeremy Lin: Asian American, Harvard Grad... NBA great?
- Thread starter Dali
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I think Lin would work best in a D'Antoni system, which is more PG-centric than most, and SSOL definitely seems to benefit him, since he seems to do best before defenses are set up. The Knicks have Lin if they want him for the next 5 years anyway.
TBH, not been a big basketball fan, I don't understand the odds against him on this one.
It simply seems to me, if he's a decent player, above average, that in the length of a decent career, he'll have a good chance of playing on a team good enough to get the championships.
I mean... what's the length of an average career? 10 years?
And if he's exciting to watch, he's going to be very popular with the asian crowd, meaning that he'll be compensated well due to his star power. Which in turn means that he's got a better than average chance of going to a high profile championship winning team.
Assuming of course that he hasn't just completely fluked his first 4 games. But as other analysis has indicated, and as his personal history has indicated, he has a considerable amount of talent - even if the question of been a MVP or Hall of Fame player is way too early to be answered.
I can understand that never is a pretty damning indictment (and implicitly reveals your bias against the dude). Improbable despite limited data would be a far fairer qualifier.
Adam Blade
WWKC
Don't be mad that Lin is better than your boy Irving and will get a ring before he will.
... now that is hyperbole.
What does... D'Antonio system and SSOL mean?
The coach, D'Antoni, uses a system that emphasizes getting the shot off in Seven Seconds Or Less (even though you have 24 seconds to make a shot). The theory is that the defense takes more than 7 seconds to set up (after running back from the other side). If the defense sets up, it's harder to get your shot up.
The system tends to give a lot more shot and rebound opportunities to players, which is why a lot of players turn into statistical stars while playing for D'Antoni. Especially for point guards, since the ball is in their hands and it is up to them to set themselves or their teammates for a shot within 7 seconds.
Here's an article that actually discusses it:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...system-is-main-reason-for-jeremy-lins-success
It's not a very good system in the playoffs, when all the teams slow the game down to a crawl and emphasize defense.
Top 10 Players Never to Win an NBA Title | The Urban Daily http://theurbandaily.com/theurbanda...els/top-10-players-never-to-win-an-nba-title/
Dreams-Visions
Member
we can tell.
the odds are against him as they are against 90% of players. It takes rare talent, endurance and consistency to even be a starter in the NBA. there are lots of guys warming benches that have had good runs. He'll need to show consistency. If he can, he'll be here for a long time.
That's the thing you'll learn about the NBA, should you ever become a "big basketball fan": longevity and decent ability do not necessarily provide a good chances of winning championships. Such is the nature of team sports. Most of the NBA's talent resides on clubs NOT named Los Angeles, San Antonio, Boston, Detroit or Chicago, but that's where almost all of the rings have been won over the last 20 years or so. Hundreds of players have played and retired without ever reaching the playoffs, let alone a Conference championship or the NBA Finals. There are Hall of Famers who played 20 years and have no rings. It's not about individual talent so much as being on the right team with your talent at the right time.
There's no reason to discuss championships with regard to Lin 4 decent games into his career. Well...unless he gets traded to Chicago, Miami, Indiana, Los Angeles, Dallas, San Antonio, Oklahoma City...
less than 5.
He'll be compensated by his team's owner group for producing on the court. He'll be decently compensated by endorsements if he can keep it up, however.
Not a fluke. But consistency over time is required. And we'll have to see how he works with Carmelo and Amari when they return.
lol. it's not even a subject, much less a "question" "to be answered". bringing it up is fucking laughable, disrespectful to the game and to the rest of the NBA players, stars and greats.
"never" has never come out of my mouth. the question is what is your rush? why do you need to crown a guy after 4 games? have you never seen a random player play well for a week or two that didn't turn out to be a star? If not, watch more basketball. I have no bias against the dude. I simply say, "let him prove it". If he is an annual 20ppg scorer in the NBA, we'll know it at the end of the season. Take a chill pill.
For some reason, your response to "let him prove it" is "omg you must not like him!"
:-(
I've said many a time that Kyrie Irving has a lot to prove to me before I'll even like him. I've said as much in just about every comment I've made about him in the NBA thread...and he's averaging damn near 20ppg as the starter @ 19 years of age. So yea...I'm a "show me a body of work" kinda guy.
Dreams-Visions
Member
lol damn it.
Probably already discussed here but -- this is a great article written by statistician Nate Silver.
Lin's 4 straight games of 20+ points, 6+ assists, and 50% shot percentage puts him in good company.
Lin's streak ended last night, as he made just 33% of his shots. He did record 20 points and 8 assists though. Something should be said about number of games started, which in Lin case, is a mere 5 games.
The first 5 games started in his career.
Lin's 4 straight games of 20+ points, 6+ assists, and 50% shot percentage puts him in good company.
Lin's streak ended last night, as he made just 33% of his shots. He did record 20 points and 8 assists though. Something should be said about number of games started, which in Lin case, is a mere 5 games.
The first 5 games started in his career.
Lol, I do. I get it, lol.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Tell who to do wat?
:O
Love ya, DY
Shurs should post in BEST-GAF with daggers like that.
LOL, this is laughable to anyone who follows college sports. That's not how it works, at all. There's something called an academic index(http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/25/s...-the-ivy-league-some-math.html?pagewanted=all) that is used primarily for athletes in the Ivy league due to academic requirements. Football and basketball coaches have a certain number of kids they can get through admissions each year if they really want them.
He was not admitted into Harvard like your average student and "athletic scholarships" are not allowed, but do happen at the Ivy and D3 level through different forms of "financial aid packages".
If you've watched any of his interviews, he can certainly speak well and hold a coherent conversation much better than most athletes.
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
Kobe isn't on that list? Wow.
I don't disagree with letting the guy prove himself. But you're pretty much assuming the dude is trash until it's absolutely certain.
Which is ok I guess, but is nonetheless dismissive of the data we already do have on the guy.
Like your response to the line about MVP - disrespectful to the sport? 4 games to the standard he's played is a rare feat in the NBA - and to do it at the start of your career, after a history of excellent playing at prior levels is unprecedented. Even if much more data is required, even at this point, it's not absolutely out of the question. Indeed, the data seems to indicate that he's got a good shot.
The general attitude of your posts aren't - hey, this is interesting, lets keep a close eye on the guy. It's more, yeah bullshit. I'll believe it when I see it.
That's why I asked - At what point do you switch from skepticism? I suppose I've already answered this one... until the guy gets the ring on his finger. Until then, it could just be "a long hot streak, or a series of hot streaks".
ryutaro's mama
Member
In case this isn't a troll, the list requires 50% shooting and 6+ assists per game for 4 or more.
Herpes Reasons
Banned
i raise you derek fisher.
should a player with a proven endurance and consistency, but now a hobbled mess of a train wreck even start in the nba?
That's a shame. Would've been awesome to watch the growth of an unassailable legend before our eyes. Even so, it's not like that 5th game is anything less than impressive.
Actually it was pretty bad for the most part. Dude was exhausted on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Knicks did win though, so that's something I guess.
Ah. Ok, this shed's much more light on the skepticism surrounding the data so far. It's not unfair, but hey, one can hope!
Dreams-Visions
Member
where is this coming from?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=35058629&postcount=11
Do you know what the colloquialism, "balling the fuck out" means? Your hyperbole is killing me softly. Point out the post where I said he's "trash" or otherwise lacking talent.
Don't worry. I'll wait.
Saying a guy needs a body of work to be considered a "star" is neither shocking nor unfair. I say the same about the best player on my team. That doesn't mean I think Kyrie Irving is trash, young man. You really need to resolve in your mind that "wait and see" != "he's trash". It means "wait and see".
Hold up. There are players that have been hyped to the high heavens and called stars before even joining the league. You're over selling this "needs a body of work" thing.
My apologies. I falsely accused you on the basis of an impression I got from reading few of your posts out of context. Still, without the context of understanding the D'Antonio system, and given the context of Nate Silver's analysis, and his back story, his promise, even this early in was very high indeed. Seemed unnecessary to downplay that to the extent that you appeared to have in the posts I read.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Like Adam Morrison?
Like Ed O'Bannon?
And what happened to guys like that when they presented their full body of work?
That's actually a great point, which should be factored into judging the data. Another variable not mentioned, is Lin's freshness. In a shortened season where teams are playing 3 games on a row, a player off the bench is bound to be two steps faster than everyday players - physically and mentally.
Dreams-Visions
Member
and many of them turn out to be busts or simply average players. your point?
see: Olawakandi, Oden, Okafur, O'Bannon, Shawn Livingston, Johs Childress, Luke Jackson, Darko Milicic, Dunleavy, Jr., Jay Williams, Kwame Brown, Eddie Curry, Sam Bowie....need I go on?
and of course some go undrafted and become stars like Ben Wallace.
Regardless of hype, players have to PROVE it on the court. They do that over the course of seasons. Those that do get anointed, crowned, whatever. So no, "body of work" is not being over-sold.
it will be interesting to see how the young and older players finish out this season. what their legs are like. so many games in such a short span of time. Teams are essentially playing every other day this month. Crazy. I expect the rookies and younger players to struggle come April.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Outside of Raymond Felton, there really haven't been many PGs who had their stats increased by that system. Toney Douglas, Chris Duhon, and the other terrible Knick PGs didn't really improve in the system and Steve Nash has kept up his unbelievable numbers even after the system was changed dramatically.
However, Lin previously was a very poor shooter and yet is on a shooting hot streak right now. If he quits shooting very well and the league adjusts to some of the ball handling weaknesses he has, he could fall off a good bit. He's still playing very well.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Agreed. Which is why the question of what happens when Carmelo and Amari come back is so important. He won't get the opportunities he's getting now in some ways...but other opportunities may be more plentiful. Will Carmelo continue to dominate the ball? and how will the decrease in attempts (and they will decrease) affect Lin's consistency? All questions to be answered soon.
Duhon doubled his point production and almost doubled his assists in his first year under D'Antoni. Now in Orlando, he's about 25-50% of his NY stats. Toney Douglas has only played for D'Antoni, so its hard to say. Billups had his numbers improve when he was in NY too.
Steve Nash's system changed for like half a season. Then Terry Porter was fired and Alvin Gentry re-instituted the D'Antoni system.
Yeah many of them turn out poor. But for feel good hype, star of the week, Lin has done more than enough for him and his fans to enjoy their moment, to get a bit of buzz going, to be able to talk about potential without being laughed at. You need a body of work to be considered MVP, 'yellow mamba' or whatever the ludicrous label some people are tossing at him but there's nothing wrong with looking at what he's done so far and saying it's the start of something great (even if he turns out to be a flop). There is a history of people ignoring Lin's accomplishments. Don't overcompensate just to be a curmudgeon.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The Suns' pace has slowed dramatically this year and Nash is still putting up his numbers. Chris Duhon's minute-adjusted numbers were nearly the same in New York and Chicago, he just got more minutes and touches because of desperation.
edit: This also ignores that Duhon's numbers declined dramatically while still in D'Antoni's system.
I'm in the NBA threads a lot, and I still think the people that do the above are stupid. Its unnecessarily hostile to new posters. And there's no good reason for it. Especially on a message board that we all know you can lurk on for YEARS before getting an account approved. There's never been a good reason for the hostility. GAF isn't even primarily a sports message board, you don't get to judge another mans interest in the game/team by how frequently you see them post in the NBA thread, and even if you could, noone cares but you.
Herpes Reasons
Banned
But him?
You're being disingenuous.
Almost everyone there tramples on lifelongers and driveby posters
Even minute-adjusted, his NY numbers were career highs.
Dreams-Visions
Member
dude, I'm not over-compensating for shit. It may be the start of something great, and it may not be. How can anyone say definitively after 4 games? It's stupidity and I won't endorse it. If he's still putting up 20ppg at the end of March, I'll agree that he is a budding star in this league. Until then, who knows what's going to happen? We know people are excited for him atm and that's the definition of the "flavor of the month", or "hype of the month" as we have no body of evidence with which to believe that it will continue. It's cool for people to be amped up about him, but being excited for him and his potential is where it should end until we have enough minutes and production under his belt to start making serious assessments. He certainly has potential...but so do a lot of players. We'll see. Sorry if that's not me moving fast enough to excite you.
Now do me a favor and read through this thread. People are mentioning him in the same breath as "star" and talking about potential for "championships" and "MVP" in the future...
...based off of 4 fucking games. And concluding that anyone who is more cautious about handing out titles like, "budding star" or "star" or "NBA great" (lol) is somehow anti-Lin. It's preposterous and embryonic. it's the argument I expect a teenager to make...but maybe I'm debating with a teenager.
I too can enjoy great play without someone having to be labeled a star and have been doing so with Lin. But titles of the nature we're talking about are solidified when players prove themselves over time. Don't overcompensate for ill-perceived over-compensation by jumping on the silly ship.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
PER 36, his numbers in his second and third years in Chicago were basically the same as the ones in New York. Slightly more assists in New York, but more turnovers.
Regardless, everyone who watched the Knicks play in those two years could tell Duhon wasn't an NBA player and was only playing out of desperation whereas Lin has looked pretty good so far. I don't think Lin is this good, but that's due to lack of scouting and a shooting hot streak, not the system.
I think it's a combination of the system, the lack of scouting, and the fact that Amare and Carmelo are out.
Dreams-Visions
Member
the biggest reason.
We'll see how he handles his attempts/game cut in half. As long as his court vision remains good, he can certainly account for 12 and 8 assists @ 50% shooting in that offense on a nightly basis. Why not? Not star numbers, but certainly what the Knicks need at that position. I'd be more excited for his production potential if Melo wasn't on the team.
Yes it is.
Herpes Reasons
Banned
sounds like an unassailable legend to me.
He's not some scrub picked off the street and played 4 games. He had a good high school career, good college career and gaffers have been following him since he showed up in the NBA. At each point, despite excelling for his level, he wasn't acknowledged in the same way other prospects were; some would even say he was purposely ignored. Given that background, not just 4 games, can you understand where his (bandwagon) fans are coming from?
By the way this GAF, what other kind of arguments were you expecting?!
Be-LIN-eve
Your right, but still, I think it would be much better without all the hate. Plus, it always just seems like the bitter folks do it anyway. If their teams loses to another, they lash out at every new poster that celebrates the win. Why get mad at them? They weren't with Lin shooting in the gym!
Herpes Reasons
Banned
because its fun to target them. its part of the culture of sports fans.Your right, but still, I think it would be much better without all the hate. Plus, it always just seems like the bitter folks do it anyway. If their teams loses to another, they lash out at every new poster that celebrates the win. Why get mad at them? They weren't with Lin shooting in the gym!
what better way to make yourself feel bettere by targeting driveby posters?
ps-please dont post that gif again, it makes my right eyelid twitch.
Angelus Errare
Banned
el-oh-el
Dreams-Visions
Member
Yes, I can understand. But that sort of resume is...the same resume that every player in the NBA has. Can people busy dick-riding understand that? How many players who make it to the NBA (!) did NOT have:
1.) A good high school career.
2.) A good college career (assuming they went).
?????
I mean seriously. It's fine if people want to dick-ride. I wouldn't even be posting if people hadn't taken my "wait and see" commentary as "zomg, you must hate him don't you! I don't understand!" That's how we arrived here. And all I've said in this thread is that (1) he's been balling, (2) most dick-riders are enjoying the freshness and hype, (3) that alluding to high accolades in the NBA are, at present, unwarranted and baseless based on lack of resume. He could be great, but he may not even be a starter in the end. We'll see when he has more than a hand full of games under his belt.
Why is that an unfair position? It's objective and reasonable. You know what? I'm done. Don't bother replying because I won't be reading it. This shit has been ridiculous. I've been neither unfair nor unreasonable, yet the accusations come anyway, and despite the commentaries to the contrary. I'm not going to waste my time being trolled.
Red Blaster
Member
I haven't seen Dreams-Visions get this heated since before The Decision
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