Free online was hardly a major factor either way last gen (what did free online have to do with "losing America"? We both know how they lost their market share), but in a scenario like we have now where two sides are going in direct competition in the same year, free online play could be the tipping point for alot of casual gamers.
Both sides will want something to differentiate themselves from the competition. In particular Sony because they lost America.
But when the biggest selling points of this next gen console are presumably behind this new re-branded paywall, who cares if online play is free? It's free now, and it's not very good.