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[mightynine]

Is it wrong if I feel like the master chief collection is going to come out and put all the naysayers to bed?
I mean, surely that should drive some sales

In my opinion, it will sell very well, but mainly to those who have already bought the console.

Now, if Microsoft does a MCC bundle for the holidays - perhaps $399 with Kinect - that could move some units.

 

[1st Course]

Most important thing to take from this earning

Commercial cloud services revenue grew $564 million or 147%, driven by continued triple-digit growth in Commercial Office 365 and Microsoft Azure. The annual run rate for our Commercial cloud business now exceeds $4.4 billion.

Office 365 and Azure are doing incredibly good. Expect MSFT to spike over this news.

 

[Dragonborn]

True, but at the same time the ps4 looks like it''s declining a bit in one of the PS brands key markets. I don't think it's safe anyway to make 100 million+ predictions for the ps4 right now because of what's happening in Japan and no one knows how well the console will sell outside Europe and NA.

I think it'll crack 100 million, but no more. It'll be in third (for PlayStation consoles) after PS2 and PS1.

 

[FDC1]

Best estimates suggest the Bone is at around 4.6-4.9 sold WW so far. Let's not forget that a huge 2 million of those were sold around launch.

So let's estimate that from between now the end of the year, another 3.5 million are sold WW. So we end up with 8.5 million in a little over a year.

Who knows, from next year, demand could certainly drop or it could pick up with a massive price cut. But the way Sony is hammering them with sales and 3rd party marketing support and games, I can't see them selling significantly over 8.5m ww each year. Call me crazy.

So if 8.5m is the average per year, you're looking at 42.5 million sold WW in 5 years on the market, 4 years from now, when I think this gen could come to an end,

It doesn't make sense. "in a little over a year" in this case means a year + a launch + a Holiday season. That's a huge difference . You should count 8.5M (which by the way is a very optimistic number) - 2M from the end of 2013= 6.5M a year

 

[Karak]

That's a problem in itself, too. You can't just ditch support for the 360 because it's still selling, but you need to get those 360 owners to get the XB1

Tough spot Microsoft are in

They need to offer an insane insentive for people to upgrade specifically if they have a 360. Larger deals than what have occured so far.
Even if its some kind of insane drop in price for them.

 

[Sayad]

So what is happening here?

Is it a case of 360 owners moving to PS4? Or is it 360 owners continuing to buy 360 games cause it's not worth upgrading to XB1 yet?

Or maybe it's both

360 owners are too satisfied with their 360s to change into next gen.

 

[mo60]

I think it'll crack 100 million, but no more. It'll be in third (for PlayStation consoles) after PS2 and PS1.

Somewhere between the ps1 and ps3 is a safe prediction for the ps4 anywere.

 

[SerTapTap]

Actually, I think this generation will mirror the PS1 generation.

Harsh. But...possible. Depends how much Wii U picks up. 2015 is a good year for games. They're already 2/3rds of the way to Saturn levels of sales.

 

[Gator86]

I'm surprised people are blown away by these numbers. A lot of GAFfers get too wrapped up in GAF and forget this place doesn't matter. People just want consoles to play COD, Madden, and Assassin's Creed. This gen that's obviously the PS4. There's been a huge amount of negativity surrounding the XBone essentially since it's reveal. I'm sure a lot of non gaming consumers still think it has DRM and such. I don't know how rational people can think stuff like Forza and fucking Killer Instinct were going to matter up against a bigger brand, cheaper price, and more powerful console that does all the exact same stuff.

 

[Khalifa Jayy]

I think MS really has a problem if they're relying on a remastered collection to save their new console.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Thats a strange math. You are comparing oranges with apples.

Looking at the last quarters, the X360 being dropping sales at average of 57% compared to last fiscal year

Xbox 360

  FY          Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr    Ap-Jn      FY       LTD

2011/12        2.3      8.2      1.4      1.1       13.0     68.3

2012/13        1.7      5.9      1.3      1.0       9.9      78.2

2013/14        1.2      3.5      0.8       ???      5.5      83.7

Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014 = 41% drop

Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014 = 68% drop

Q3 2013 vs Q3 2014 = 62% drop

So if X360 had a similar drop, it would be around 430K. For reference, the X360 had a 53% drop YoY in the last June NPD

Your math doesn't make sense

Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014 = 1.2 / 1.7 = 0.705 -> Q1 2014 is 70.5% of Q1 2013 or there was a ~ 29.5% drop

Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014 = 3.5 / 5.9 = 0.593 -> Q2 2014 is 59.3% of Q2 2013 or there was a ~ 41% drop

Q3 2013 vs Q3 2014 = 0.8 / 1.3 = 0.615 -> Q3 2014 is 61.5% of Q3 2013 or there was a ~ 38.5% drop

Thus average YOY drop is ~ 36.3%

Thus with 1M shipped in Q4 2013, then estimate of 360 shipped in Q4 of 2014 should be 1(1-.363) = .637 -> 637k 360 shipped -> 463k XB1 shipped in Q4 of 2014

For your method to determine 360 sales in Q4 of 2014, it should be 1/1.57 = .6369 -> 636.9k

---------

Let me add in QOQ comparisons for completeness

Q3 2012 vs Q4 2012 = 1.1 / 1.4 = 0.786 -> Q3 2012=2 is 78.6% of Q4 2012 or there was a ~ 21.4% drop QOQ

Q3 2013 vs Q4 2013 = 1 / 1.3 = 0.769 -> Q3 2013 is 76.9% of Q4 2013 or there was a ~ 23% drop QOQ

Thus average QOQ drop is ~ 22.25% -> 0.8 (1-.2225) = .6219 -> Thus QOQ estimate gives us 622K 360 shipped in Q4 of 2014 ->478K XB1 shipped in Q4 of 2014

 

[Into]

They dont even have a hailmary to latch onto, like if MS was serious about VR like Sony is, one could say "well if this thing hits off they can ride that wave". Leaning on a collection of Halo games people have already played and can play them *right now* with worse visuals is not exactly great.

If PS4 is to hit 100m and beyond, one would think VR would have to play a role in that, or MS to completely crumble and give up on XB1, funneling everyone to the PS4. I dont think that is going to happen. They have the money to stay in and fight

But obviously making predictions in how everything looks in 5+ years is a bit premature and impossible.

 

[Mermandala]

2 words : HALO AMiiBO

 

[Miles Quaritch]

We're missing the good part. If Xb1 continues to do really badly (and MS are still interested in a Xb2), then they might do an OG Xbox and cut things short to get a 12-24 month headstart on Sony. Nintendo might be tempted too. A staggered generation could be really interesting. Xb2 in 2017

I don't see them doing this again. They'll want to try and make the X1 as successful as they can before moving on.

The OG to 360 transition was unique due to them coming so late to the sixth gen market and them haemorrhaging money thanks to nvidia deal that was poorly thought through before release.

 

[DieH@rd]

The Black Friday bundles are going to be out of control

 

[SerTapTap]

Those were truly golden times for gifs.

 

[marc^o^]

Most important thing to take from this earning



Office 365 and Azure are doing incredibly good. Expect MSFT to spike over this news.

I don't think so. Cloud revenue is growing fast, but has far lower margins than the previous business model (licence + maintenance for the licences). This issue is hurting all IT giants pretty badly.

 

[SDCowboy]

That's not saying much. There aren't anywhere near as many One's in the field than 360's.

People need to stop using this as an excuse for anything. It's completely irrelevant.

 

[Lynn616]

We're missing the good part. If Xb1 continues to do really badly (and MS are still interested in a Xb2), then they might do an OG Xbox and cut things short to get a 12-24 month headstart on Sony. Nintendo might be tempted too. A staggered generation could be really interesting. Xb2 in 2017

2018 Xbox 720. 5 years on the dot.

If MS wants Marketshare they need a $299 without Kinect and $399 with Kinect.

Needs a redesign with the new prices. Hell rename the thing too.

 

[DustyVonEric]

It's good for those of us waiting on a deal to buy one.

Yeah, and bad for us waiting on sweet deals and bundles for ps4.

I really want ms to bounce back, because really what's the incentive for Sony to price cut ps4 anytime soon unless ms steps up?

 

[Hoo-doo]

I actually think you can. I mean, it's hard to accept, but maybe people just don't want the Xbox One? Or rather, not as much as they want a PS4.

I think this is kind of it. People seem to keep thinking that a pricedrop is all that's needed for the Xbox to start selling big numbers again.
It won't. It's a product held back by negative mindshare and not just among hardcore gamers, it has spilled over into the mainstream months ago.

Around launch, Microsoft being in the spotlight with bad news and terrible PR semi-daily certainly didn't help. It has damaged their image. Seeing it on store shelves with slashed prices everywhere certainly won't inspire confidence in the fact that it's a healthy product either.

 

[Izayoi]

Hmm... Hopefully the MCC and FH2 can turn things around.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

It doesn't make sense. "in a little over a year" in this case means a year + a launch + a Holiday season. That's a huge difference . You should count 8.5M (which by the way is a very optimistic number) - 2M from the end of 2013= 6.5M a year

Yeah my predictions were best-case for the Bone.

But I included 2m since launch as don't forget all consoles get a huge boost at Christmas time.

Let's say average of 7m a year added to a predicted 8.5m by the end of this year. So 36.5M sold WW for a 5-year gen.

 

[GoofsterStud]

Was not expecting things to be this bad where they have to resort to combining shipped numbers with x360. Another thing out of Sony's playbook .

 

[AyaisMUsikWhore]

It sold units. Imo, it's doing good. I'm not down with this constant grim outlook everyone loves to cast. It will catch stride soon. Which ever the case, the Xbox is doing fine and customers are happy.

 

[Xando]

good times

 

[Raist]

Let's face it, if MS suddenly decided to group the 360 and XB1 together, it's probably because it doesn't look pretty for the latter at all. I doubt they'd have done that if they had shipped 0.9M, which would have been a fairly normal drop for a Q1/Q2 transition. I don't think they're anywhere near 6M shipped. And quite some of that is sitting on shelves.

 

[Death2494]

Wii U to pick up second place confirmed...

GAF.......believe!!!!

1.1million shipped? XBO/360

That looks absolutely horrible. Titanfall for 360 should figure in there somewhere. Does anyone have a estimate of how many Xbox 360 where shipped during this last quarter?

 

[Shin-Ra]

Yeah, and bad for us waiting on sweet deals and bundles for ps4.

I really want ms to bounce back, because really what's the incentive for Sony to price cut ps4 anytime soon unless ms steps up?

How much pressure was there to cut the PS2 price when they did?

 

[Principate]

Let's face it, if MS suddenly decided to group the 360 and XB1 together, it's probably because it doesn't look pretty for the latter at all. I doubt they'd have done that if they had shipped 0.9M, which would have been a fairly normal drop for a Q1/Q2 transition. I don't think they're anywhere near 6M shipped. And quite some of that is sitting on shelves.

It's almost certainly less than 0.7 million since they were still willing to post Xbox 360 shipment data when it reached that low. (That was like the second Q4)

 

[NickFire]

Based on the highly touted leadership change, I was hopeful that all of the backlash and lost market share they suffered the past 12 months was bringing the horrible spin machine to a stop (as well as their obnoxious anti-consumer / cash grab policies). Clearly I was wrong on the spin, but I am sure they were telling the truth about listening to what gamers really want now. No chance that was a lie.

 

[Katze mit Hut]

It sold units. Imo, it's doing good. I'm not down with this constant grim outlook everyone loves to cast. It will catch stride soon. Which ever the case, the Xbox is doing fine and customers are happy.

Get out the chalkboard and add "randomly catching the stride soon" will save the XBox One!

Spoiler

sry

 

[Amir0x]

It sold units. Imo, it's doing good. I'm not down with this constant grim outlook everyone loves to cast. It will catch stride soon. Which ever the case, the Xbox is doing fine and customers are happy.

I mean... people are not being "grim" for no reason. And I think the term here is realistic. I think it'll be a decently performing second place system, but there's no hope for better than that. Is that grim? Many people here feel the same, but by sales-ages standards based on historical trends, these are not particularly good numbers. In my view, the only way a person can think 1.1mil shipped Q4 for XBO/XB360 combined is a good thing is if they don't have context for this specific sales discussion.

This whole post actually reads like a Baghdad Bob post really. "Xbox is doing fine and customers are happy." As if that's going to change the reality of the numbers?

 

[Mass Effect]

I see some talk of MS potentially wanting to start the next generation early to get the jump on Sony. Am I the only one who thinks this gen won't end early and will probably last as long as the previous one? I just can't see any of these three companies wanting to rush into dumping billions into R&D all over again so soon.

The Wii U will probably be Nintendo's last traditional console, it's looking like they might actually be going for the hybrid console idea we've been hearing about. And I think if it got to the point where the Xbone is doing so badly that MS would be itching to start a new generation ASAP, that we wouldn't even get another Xbox, at least not in the current form of a core gaming console.

Why do they need to play nice? Windows is the only game in town for desktop PC gaming. They do not have to work to get customers at all.

I find it weird that they haven't forced funneling yet, its like free money. I'm really curious to see where they take things with 9.

PC gamers aren't just going to flock to whatever store/ecosystem Microsoft might conjure up to sell their games. I seriously doubt you'll find many PC gamers so desperate to play MS' games that they'll go running to, say, the Windows 8 store. We saw this was the case last gen with GFWL. If MS is smart, they'll release their games on Steam. Period.

This is all assuming MS decides to even put their games on PC anyway, which is unlikely (barring a few exceptions).

So what is happening here?

Is it a case of 360 owners moving to PS4? Or is it 360 owners continuing to buy 360 games cause it's not worth upgrading to XB1 yet?

Or maybe it's both

Probably a good mix of both, but there are definitely a lot of 360 owners jumping ship. And this will probably continue to be the case unless there is a huge shake-up or something.

Yeah, I expect them to bundle MCC with the console and that will provide a nice bump, but they really need to be more aggressive and much sooner. Halo can't cure all ills the console is facing and while another price cut probably isn't possible just yet, I think they can make it a better proposition with value adds from their launch line up.

Digital DR3, Forza 5 and Ryse + one month of gold for the current RRP would be a pretty good start.

Yeah, I expect to see some crazy deals on the Xbone come this holiday. I could even see two bundled games and a year of XBL Gold along with a retailer price-drop/gift card.

200k monthly in the states? 7k per week in Japan? 100M?

Sales typicallly improve as the generation goes on though. While I think Japan is a lost cause, sales in NA and EU will pick up more as the software lineup grows stronger and last-gen completely dies off.

And also by this time next year, I expect the PS4 will drop $50 at least. Wouldn't be surprised to see a $299 PS4 with a bundled game.

 

[Reg]

All this doom and gloom. Just wait till it launches in japan and then we'll see where the buck shits in the buckwheat.

 

[Principate]

All this doom and gloom. Just wait till it launches in japan and then we'll see where the buck shits in the buckwheat.

What's launching in Japan going to do everyone and their mothers know how badly it's going o bomb, even MS knows this.

 

[shinnn]

Your math doesn't make sense

Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014 = 1.2 / 1.7 = 0.705 -> Q1 2014 is 70.5% of Q1 2013 or there was a ~ 29.5% drop

Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014 = 3.5 / 5.9 = 0.593 -> Q2 2014 is 59.3% of Q2 2013 or there was a ~ 41% drop

Q3 2013 vs Q3 2014 = 0.8 / 1.3 = 0.615 -> Q3 2014 is 61.5% of Q3 2013 or there was a ~ 38.5% drop

Thus average YOY drop is ~ 36.3%

Thus with 1M shipped in Q4 2013, then estimate of 360 shipped in Q4 of 2014 should be 1(1-.363) = .637 -> 637k 360 shipped -> 463k XB1 shipped in Q4 of 2014

For your method to determine 360 sales in Q4 of 2014, it should be 1/1.57 = .6369 -> 636.9k

Yes, my math was broken lol. Thanks for correcting me.

You compare YoY with those reports, not quarter vs quarter.

edit: looking at the previous quarters, They shipped more XB1 than X360. Seems a little odd that it changed with the price drop on XB1.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

I still think MS doesn't even care THAT MUCH. I have a feeling they will pull the plug on windows phone, surface, and xbox within the next few years. They're just waiting for the right time for each. Nadella has constantly implied their plans for the future and I don't feel like those things, including xbox (AS WE KNOW IT) is part of it. Key words there being as we know it.

 

[Death2494]

It sold units. Imo, it's doing good. I'm not down with this constant grim outlook everyone loves to cast. It will catch stride soon. Which ever the case, the Xbox is doing fine and customers are happy.

Sold in = retailer
Sold through = consumer

Why do you think they number always evenly rounded to the nearest 100k? Wii U might have outsold it last quarter worldwide.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

I mean... people are not being "grim" for no reason. And I think the term here is realistic. I think it'll be a decently performing second place system, but there's no hope for better than that. Is that grim? Many people here feel the same, but by any standard, these are not good numbers. However, the only way a person can think 1.1 shipped Q4 for XBO/XB360 combined is a good thing is if they don't have context for this specific sales discussion.

This whole post actually reads like a Baghdad Bob post really. "Xbox is doing fine and customers are happy." As if that's going to change the reality of the numbers?

Well in the context of this earnings report, which is for investors, the console really isn't doing very good because of the hundreds (actually billions) that constitutes this product's budget.

It's doing quite badly, in fact.

 

[Katze mit Hut]

All this doom and gloom. Just wait till it launches in japan and then we'll see where the buck shits in the buckwheat.

I chuckled

 

[Captain Tuttle]

And here...we...go.

Microsoft is now Sony
Sony is now Microsoft
Nintendo is Nintendo

A decent summary.

 

[Oppo]

I feel like, behind the scenes in all this, there was a whole plan for a subscription-based and cable box-based model for the Xbox that just completely fell through, on top of all the other stuff we've seen.

 

[Clarkus Darkus]

Well i was one of those that switched too the ps4 from 360 along with my brother and friends, Just the better valued console.

But in truth i do miss the xbox brand, The X1 pad to me personally feels better and i am just kinda used too the product so i'll defo pick one up at some point but i don't know when as the MCC doesnt interest me as i have already played and completed them all.

Sony on the other hand have the best exclusives, And now the best system out of the two to play multi-plat games on, I really can see sony having a ps2 type era with the ps4.

I mean games like Bloodborne will sell ps4's surely as the PC crowd will be too tempted by that gaming series to not play it?

 

[Toki767]

I still think MS doesn't even care THAT MUCH. I have a feeling they will pull the plug on windows phone, surface, and xbox within the next few years. They're just waiting for the right time for each. Nadella has constantly implied their plans for the future and I don't feel like those things, including xbox (AS WE KNOW IT) is part of it. Key words there being as we know it.

Oh they care. They just probably have no idea what to do to turn the tide at the moment.

 

[Raist]

200k monthly in the states? 7k per week in Japan? 100M?

Ignoring the crazy launch and holiday period, the average for the PS4 is 270k monthly in the US. And it's never First year > all the rest. You have a clear example for this just looking at the 360 numbers in the OP.

 

[Zombie James]

We're missing the good part. If Xb1 continues to do really badly (and MS are still interested in a Xb2), then they might do an OG Xbox and cut things short to get a 12-24 month headstart on Sony. Nintendo might be tempted too. A staggered generation could be really interesting. Xb2 in 2017

Can they afford to do another rushjob with all the risks that come along with it? Especially with that new guy in charge?

 

[PanicFreak]

They need to offer an insane insentive for people to upgrade specifically if they have a 360. Larger deals than what have occured so far.
Even if its some kind of insane drop in price for them.

They should have moved heaven and earth to get compatibility for XBLA titles.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

Oh they care. They just probably have no idea what to do to turn the tide at the moment.

well they care in the sense that they've invested in it for the next while but I mean in terms of their overall business plan. Don't think xbox as a gaming console like it is now is part of it. This will probably be the last one. I said it in another thread too. They're more likely to release a cheap box to play mobile/cloud games.

 

[Amir0x]

Well in the context of this earnings report, which is for investors, the console really isn't doing very good because of the hundreds (actually billions) that constitutes this product's budget.

It's doing quite badly, in fact.

Right, I'm talking about projecting it going forward. I would not say it is doing at all what Microsoft as a business wants it to do. It is clearly not, and that's a dangerous place for the Xbox brand to be right now with what's going on internally. They need a good recovery over the course of the gen.