Well. You could always run an unofficial one which will be ignored.
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Nicola Sturgeon: 2nd Independence Referendum IS on the table - supported by manifesto
- Thread starter Pankratous
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Well. You could always run an unofficial one which will be ignored.
KurtSloane
Banned
Where was that spirit during the first referendum, you Scots really disappointed me with that one.
Better get it right this time.
MassiveNights
Banned
Ignored by who? The international community would back Scotland.
Unofficial or official, if Scotland votes to become independent it can't be denied unless there are troops on the streets.
Worked well for the Catalans.
KurtSloane
Banned
If you think it would simply be ignored and not a huge amount of pressure on the UK government then you are tripping.
Audioboxer
Member
Salmond wasn't good enough. He was okay (considering he still managed to get 45%), but got ganged up on and torn to shreds many times. Didn't inspire enough Scots to get past the fear-mongering, much like has just happened in England now.
This time around the division is only larger after the failed vow promise, and this EU ref. The folks in Scotland like Sturgeon a lot more than Salmond as well. She's just gotta get her facts from the EU first about our potential future and then she will be savage at swatting Better Together bullshit if it arises. Can't go into this one half cocked like Salmond.
KurtSloane
Banned
Hardly the same thing at all, come off it now.
Apologies for dealing with actual facts. If Scotland wants to leave then they need Westminster approval. That is incontrovertible and not debatable.
It's exactly the same. It's another unofficial referendum.
Audioboxer
Member
Good news for you is Westminster will cave considering their campaign against Scotland was about staying in the EU (lol, backfire), and the SNP manifesto was allowed to exist with the exert about a material change in circumstances.
The boys down South won't be able to ignore this one, you'll see soon enough.
MassiveNights
Banned
They only had a turnout of 40%.
The turnout for the Scottish referendum was 85%.
Completely different circumstances.
They don't even need a referendum, that is just to see what the own population thinks. Kosovo managed to declare independence fine without one. They even use the Euro as currency.
There is also some information on what the European Union requires: Montenegro had to have a 55% majority on at least 50% turnout to count.
There is also some information on what the European Union requires: Montenegro had to have a 55% majority on at least 50% turnout to count.
Audioboxer
Member
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
The SNP manifesto is of no concern to Westminster. They can't control what is put into it.
Any real referendum is years away.
Audioboxer
Member
It'll take some of us a year to sober up and stagger to the polling stations anyway.
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
Catalonia isn't a country. Scottland is. Also the Catalans only had like 40% turnout (which isn't enough looking at Montenegro as precedent).
There are only that many decisive votes of the entirety of Scottland that Westminster can ignore (taking the clear outcome of the EU referendum in Scottland and the legally binding election of the SNP last month AND their manifesto into account that already happened). Ignoring local backlash and civil disobedience coming from Catalonia as Spain is also an entirely different dimension than the same happening with Scottland and Westminster.
Scotland hasn't been a separate state since 1707.
MassiveNights
Banned
Country does not mean sovereign state.
Incontrovertible you say? Challange accepted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unilateral_declaration_of_independence
Check out a couple of the countries on that list, now members of the EU.
While a Westminster approved referendum is the preferred option, it is not the only option. Debate away.
blu
Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
I don't think it will be as far away as you think Scotland will want to leave before the uk leaves the eu so they can argue that they haven't left the eu the rest of the uk have.
Stallion Dan
Member
Can delay it near forever though. First thing will be to say holding one now when fear of unknown and panic isn't wise and need leave EU first, then will be time for UK to adapt to non EU and things to settle so people can see benefits of it before deciding, and if EU getting shaky with other referendums then even more delays because we'll need see how that goes first.
Croatia and Slovenia are decent examples, the rest not so much. I do not see Scotland attempting this. It's a very different time and situation.
Audioboxer
Member
They can try but if Sturgeon gets some sort of concrete greenlight from the EU that Scotland will at least be negotiated with if independent the folks up here are going to be pushing for it sooner than later.
Pissing off the Scots with the answer of "We're not letting you hold it yet because... reasons" is not going to go down well. If anything that will only make it an almost concrete leave the UK vote if Westminster starts to play with Scottish emotions and act like a bratty big brother.
Another thing is we have no clear idea of the level of public support for another referendum.
Audioboxer
Member
I'll give you that, it's all anecdotal for now, but there is support. How much? Up to the SNP to analyse and try and show in their case for indyref2.
You can't really just say Scotland woke up on Friday and went, "62% in favour, 100% coverage... ah fuck it, let's just jog along with what the English and Welsh want."
Agreed. iirc Sturgeon did want 60% of public support for another referendum before calling for it. How you gauge that I am unsure. Which poll do you go with? I saw one pre referendum that had support at 32%.
I saw another from Kantar that said if UK left but Scotland voted to stay, would you still want independence. 56% said no to that.
Audioboxer
Member
That's up to her to wade through. If polls show us anything given the decision gone there they are not concrete evidence of anything. Polls for the GE said Tory minority/possibly Labour... Conservative majority. Polls for this ref said remain win, although probably close, leave win by a decent % considering the chances given to the campaign. Over 1m votes leave win.
Admiral Woofington
Member
Scotland wants to follow the footsteps of little brother "the colonies" in leaving mama. We support you Scotland.
Audioboxer
Member
Looks like Hadrian's wall will be getting an upgrade.
KurtSloane
Banned
There is a clear level of support for the SNP how where elected on a manifesto that included another referendum.
They have a massive majority, there is a mandate.
You may have Unionist sympathies but the SNP and the majority of voters don't.
Audioboxer
Member
There's still a decent percentage of the country with unionist sympathies. What is important for the SNP is to try and work out what % of the 55% may have been swung to NO because of the economy/the EU/fear. They aren't winning the Unionists over to YES, but they probably will those now upset the EU promise is in tatters (nevermind the vow).
I'd say the high end of optimism at indyref2 would be 60/40. In reality it's still likely to be as close as the last was, but in reverse if anything 55 YES, 45 NO. Anyone thinking it would be a landslide is wrong. The SNP will have to be smart, patient and run a hell of a good campaign. Something I think Sturgeon can do better than Salmond any day of the week.
Voting SNP doesn't automatically suggest someone wants a referendum, no more than me voting Sinn Fein and wanting a United Ireland.
Audioboxer
Member
No, but you're not going to get diehard Unionists voting SNP, ever. There is serious hate for Sturgeon/SNP up here, still on a fairly widespread scale. One trip to my social media portals even has extended family who just bash her and call her a cunt wanting to break the UK to this day.
However 56/59 MPs in London was still a massive win. The GE results were fairly favourable for SNP as well.
It's about what I said above, what % of the NO voters who went on to vote SNP can be converted. They are the only chance. Re-committed NO voters will still be out in numbers at indyref2, regardless of the state of England/Wales and the UK post brexit.
MassiveNights
Banned
It's a decent barometer when they have in their manifesto that they'll seek another referendum if we vote to stay in the EU and the UK votes to leave.
S
Steve.1981
Unconfirmed Member
Hang about mate. Just noticed this. Run it by me again please.
Which Ayrshire council voted Tory at the last General Election? As far as I'm aware, every single one voted SNP.
And are you sure you're not thinking about the Borders when you talk about a Tory stronghold? Because I've lived in Ayrshire my whole life and this is the first I'm hearing about this.
Audioboxer
Member
South Ayrshire
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/election-2016-conservative-john-scott-7908385
750 votes IIRC is the lowest he's ever won by.
S
Steve.1981
Unconfirmed Member
Oh you're talking about the Scottish Elections this year? I thought you said General Election, which is where every Ayrshire council returned an SNP candidate.
Anyway, my point still stands. One Tory MSP from Ayr doesn't make the whole of Ayrshire a Tory stronghold. It's not.
Audioboxer
Member
And they'll make the English pay for it!
Audioboxer
Member
Scotland is trying to break away from England so it can stay in the EU. Essentially Scotland leaving the UK.
Scotland voted to stay in the EU, but as England is a larger part of the UK its vote counts heavier. So we have to leave against what our country as an individual entity within the UK voted.
S
Steve.1981
Unconfirmed Member
Yeah sorry that was my mixup. Just recently moved here
No worries. It's just, as you'll understand, damn near everyone I know and all our families going back years are working class die-hard Labour. A lot of us have switched to the SNP now, but the Tories?!...
Audioboxer
Member
Yeah my family and myself started as Labour. My first vote ever was labour, mainly due to my family, but still. Now everyone is SNP and pro independence. Close family anyway.
Extended family is a mixed bag. As I've said on GAF already some real hate for the SNP and Sturgeon within some of my family ranks. Sad thing though is the strongest hate isn't based upon policy, it's just the blind "she wants to breakup the UK". Which is losing whatever merit it did once have now that Better Together looks like a laugh on reflection and we're leaving the EU against the popular country vote.
PastorOfMuppets
Banned
As an outsider looking in, this entire situation has been so fascinating to follow.
So if Scotland leaves, do you guys still consider yourself a part of the Commonwealth ala Canada, Australia, India, Jamaica and New Zealand or are y'all gonna tell us all to go fuck ourselves as well? I can't imagine you'd still want to be associated with England in any way following the recent Brexit debacle.
So if Scotland leaves, do you guys still consider yourself a part of the Commonwealth ala Canada, Australia, India, Jamaica and New Zealand or are y'all gonna tell us all to go fuck ourselves as well? I can't imagine you'd still want to be associated with England in any way following the recent Brexit debacle.
Audioboxer
Member
Don't worry we'll still love you all. We're just getting seriously pissed off with England making the opposite decision of us then forcing us along cause they have a bigger population.
We don't want Conservative governments we keep getting and we don't want to leave the EU now.
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