Vinci said:
The reason people are suggesting that a new Wii might come early, GAK, is because the Wii has basically followed the DS's strategy from the word go. Nintendo's current strategy with the DS, as far as anyone can tell at this time, is to cut Sony's handheld efforts off at the knees. They have the 3rd parties - at least Japanese - firmly onboard. Nintendo will focus on getting the mainstream and expanded audience, and the 3rd parties look set to deliver a system for the traditional gamers. This is devastating to any chances Sony might have had with a PSP2.
If a Wii 2 were to appear soon, ie. 2011 or early 2012, Sony and Microsoft's efforts with motion controls and everything they're trying to do would be cut off at the knees. Neither one is really in a position to counter with new hardware that soon; both are trying like hell to extend this generation. No one is suggesting that Nintendo would launch new console hardware without some hook to it, but they will not offer a system that is underpowered relative to the 360 and PS3 because it would be stupid to do so. It's immensely inexpensive to get hardware superior to those two systems at this point in time.
If 3rd parties were at all intelligent, they would support the Wii's successor as the lead platform for all software and down-port to the 360 and PS3. They could even bring out a Wii 2 level release for the PC as well. They would be able to sell their titles on all the systems. It makes logical sense for them to do that.
So there is some strategic advantage to Nintendo killing the Wii off slightly earlier than they absolutely have to.
1ST BOLD...
Sony & Microsoft's efforts with motion controls don't need to be cut off at the knee's. I know it's not popular around to think this but I don't think Kinect or Move have a chance in hell at wooing new audiences in to the degree that the Wii has *let alone* will they steal away Wii owners. They are late, expensive, add-on, half-assed reactions to the Wii...Nintendo really doesn't need to react back, counter-attack or do a "preemptive strike" because of Kinect or Move. I'm not saying Nintendo should be idle, but what most are suggesting is that Nintendo HAS to bring out a fully HD, fully online 3RD party powered Wii successor ASAP. Nintendo didn't need any of the aforementioned things to make the Wii what it is before, so why would they need to now?
In a way, they sorta are striking back at the competition though...with a portable no less. A portable with better power/visuals, (the promise of) better online and better 3RD party support. Wii owners have been crying for proper support: an original RE, a SF IV port, Ninja Gaiden anything, throw us some kind of MGS bone and now we're getting it, just now on 3DS! And it strikes at X360 & PS3 because the "hook" (3D) can't be done on those systems, while staying separate/different enough than Wii without interfering with it's "hook" (full motion controls).
2ND BOLD...
I really wasn't suggesting that a theoretical 2011/2012 Wii successor would be deliberately underpowered, I just don't think there will be a successor in that time frame at all.
3RD BOLD...
Nintendo has a stranglehold on the portable side, especially with Sony's failing to uproot them. The console side though, even after all Wii has done (granted the gap in power between it and the competing platforms is a problem) no one in "the industry" takes it seriously. I do think Wii's successor will get better support, but not to the degree of what 3DS is getting and will get and continue to get. Nintendo home consoles, even in the NES days, there's been this stigma against supporting them with seriousness...with their portables however, they always seem to get some kind of serious support. I know people here hate the anti-Nintendo conspiracy theory or whatever, but it is very true that some within "the industry" have more of a bias for or against certain companies. With the Wii's successor (especially under this theoretical "preemptive" premise) I think it would get some token support upfront, but there would be some new prefabricated excuse within "the industry" that would be used as a crutch not to support it in favor of the competition. The competition can thusly breath a sigh of relief as they now can follow Nintendo's lead into next generation with more powerful machines and the market share is reset to zero.
My thoughts are that Nintendo will continue on with the current Wii as-is for some time:
-help current Wii gamers graduate to more types of games beyond entry-level or bridge-type games (call them "core" games, call it "swimming upstream", work in the retro revival to bring back lapsed gamers, etc.)
-find new ways to bring in even newer audiences (Vitality Sensor/Wii Relax, new types of games/peripherals, price drops, Player's Choice pricing, etc.)
-further break down the "core VS casual" barriers "the industry" has brainwashed people into believing is there
-wait out Kinect & Move and watch the competition squirm as they fail bring in what they call "casuals" (read: retards) to revitalize their systems with these add-on's
-as the competition alienates the "core" more so by focusing on Kinect & Move, offer them a new refuge with deep exclusive experiences that are neither core nor casual in the form of: Zelda: SS, The Last Story, DQ X and the 3DS for the more prudent
-wait to do any talking of Wii's successor until after the competition talks of their successor's instead...this could take a while due to them needed to make good on their investment this generation, or...
-watch the competition (and it's investor's) not know what to do next except go for the old bigger/better/faster routine as they talk of their NEXT generation
-watch "the industry" of old self-destruct and implode as the chasing of Hollywood further raises prices and more publishers either fold in, get gobbled up or must merge to stay alive
-as the competition talks of their NEXT generational evolution, hype up yet another NEW revolution as Wii's successor instead
-then offer something (around the same time as the competition) that is more powerful yes, but more importantly: DIFFERENT
Most of the above can be done without the need of a Wii successor anytime soon, in fact...the longer they wait, the more they widen the gap, the more they make "the industry" more irrelevant, the more they make the competition sweat. They have more time to destroy old myths that Nintendo is: "only for kids" or "only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo platforms" or that they're "just a fad" or whatever other myth comes about...namely the "core VS casual" myths. To add, they give the 3DS it's spotlight time to shine, they bring in more expanded audiences, they satisfy the current Wii audiences with a longer lifespan than any generation before (something that should be much appreciated in current/future economy) and they find time to cook up the next big thing!