R_GILL said:
Our pitching last year was superb while our offense was anemic. Our one strength from last year will take a huge hit this year with the loss of our 2nd best pitcher in Marcum and Burnett who had overall had a decent season. Halladay is Halladay but after that their are huge question marks everywhere. Barring any signings our rotation is shaping out to be:
Halladay
McGowan
Litsch
Purcey
Richmond/Parrish/Cecil
McGowan is a huge question mark, he started off well but then struggled and then suffered a pretty serious shoulder injury. Even if he comes back how good will he be? Litsch had a pretty good season. I actually do believe he will pitch well next year but his stuff really isn't that good and he does have the potential to blow up. Purcey pitched really well in triple A, but really didn't do much at the MLB level and his walk rate was even worse then it was when he struggled mightily in the minors. Richmond and Parrish are really just filler and we might have both in the rotation as McGowan really isn't scheduled to come back till May. Cecil did struggle a bit in AAA, he probably isn't ready yet and probably won't be until mid season.
On the offensive side. Overbay has sucked 2 years in a row now and if not for his OBP he would be completely useless. Rolen is a huge injury risk, even when healthy his power looks completely shot. Hill probably won't do any better then Inglett did last year. Barajas sucks. Other then Furcal I don't see any SS who will put up much better numbers then Scutaro did last year. Snider possibly can have a huge impact, but then again he is only going to be 21 years old, realistically you can't really expect him to do any better then Jay Bruce did this year (keeping in mind he will probably do worse as Bruce is a better overall hitter then him). The only places where I see definite improvement from last year are the OF positions where Rios will most likely bounce back, and we will have Lind and Wells for the whole season.
The Jays are offering something like 15 mill for burnett, they will use that money to sign some pitcher.. so no, the rotation isn't shaping up like you project. If they can't get Burnett, they can go for Lowe or Sheets, who very well could be improvements on Burnett but might not make as much. Cecil looks ready to make the majors to me, a groundball pitcher with strikeout numbers is as much of a lock as there is.. but yeah he did walk a bit too many in AAA, but was still striking out a batter/inning. I think a rotation of Halladay,Burnett/Lowe/Sheets,Litsch,McGowan,Purcey/Cecil/Janssen would be very good.. There are questions about McGowan, true.. he might not be back till the allstar break or something.
Rolen is not really a liability, because of his outstanding defense - you can expect an 800 OPS from him next year i'm sure. His OPS this year was above 800 every month except one where he was clearly injured. Overbay, I agree, is finished offensively.. but his 375 OBP is still nice, and he hits righties very well (865 ops last year) - get him a platoon partner and you have above avg 1B production. Offensive improvement from the Jays has to come from a DH signing and a RH bat to spell Overbay/Lind, and steps forward from one of Lind or Snider, and return to form of Rios and Wells. I don't think that's too optimistic.
Griffey's probably done now?
