StorablePrawn
Banned
Lobster said:
Damn close to it.
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Official March NPD Thread (The story? PS3 = weak, SW sales = insane)
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
Damn close to it.
Ah, pricedrops.
360: MS has no reason to pricedrop as long as they're stomping PS3. Handhelds don't matter, Wii doesn't matter (in their minds), PS2 sales will decline naturally every month from now on as the software flow dries up. I understand the wishful thinking, but that's all it is. No drop before 2008.
PS2: Sony has no reason to pricedrop this machine because there's no pent-up demand waiting for a lower price point. How many people are saying "no sale" at $130 but will rush out to the store at $100? Not enough to make the per-unit loss worth it, at least not right now. By Christmas, maybe, no earlier than October.
PS3: Sony won't drop the price, and even if they did it wouldn't help. Nothing will help except software. Sony chose in their arrogance to launch at $599, and now the damage has been done.
Ask yourself this fascinating theoretical question: Let's say Sony decides to pricedrop on May 1. How big of a drop would they need to beat 360 in the May NPD? (Keep in mind 360 will get Mass Effect and Forza 2 in May as exclusives; PS3 will get MLB 07 and not much else.)
I think even a $200 drop to $399 -- matching the 360 Premium -- would not be enough. They would have to drop at least $250. They would be selling their machine at the biggest loss of all time. It's unthinkable.
Basically, there is no smart pricedrop for the PS3. No matter what the amount, they lose even more money per unit and fail to raise sales significantly. Only software can save them. What Sony should do right now is chain all 3d-party devs to their workstations and not release them until their games go gold.
360: MS has no reason to pricedrop as long as they're stomping PS3. Handhelds don't matter, Wii doesn't matter (in their minds), PS2 sales will decline naturally every month from now on as the software flow dries up. I understand the wishful thinking, but that's all it is. No drop before 2008.
PS2: Sony has no reason to pricedrop this machine because there's no pent-up demand waiting for a lower price point. How many people are saying "no sale" at $130 but will rush out to the store at $100? Not enough to make the per-unit loss worth it, at least not right now. By Christmas, maybe, no earlier than October.
PS3: Sony won't drop the price, and even if they did it wouldn't help. Nothing will help except software. Sony chose in their arrogance to launch at $599, and now the damage has been done.
Ask yourself this fascinating theoretical question: Let's say Sony decides to pricedrop on May 1. How big of a drop would they need to beat 360 in the May NPD? (Keep in mind 360 will get Mass Effect and Forza 2 in May as exclusives; PS3 will get MLB 07 and not much else.)
I think even a $200 drop to $399 -- matching the 360 Premium -- would not be enough. They would have to drop at least $250. They would be selling their machine at the biggest loss of all time. It's unthinkable.
Basically, there is no smart pricedrop for the PS3. No matter what the amount, they lose even more money per unit and fail to raise sales significantly. Only software can save them. What Sony should do right now is chain all 3d-party devs to their workstations and not release them until their games go gold.
StorablePrawn
Banned
I could see the PS3 becoming a ****ing monster three years from now, when development costs are down and the console is affordable. And look at that gap between GoW2 and the rest of the list! The 360's online shooter image might keep it in moderate sales territory, while late-comer casuals who aren't biting Nintendo's bait -- the current SOCOM, Metal Gear, and casual Final Fantasy fans -- will finally start buying PS3s. I'm probably underestimating the 360's image, but the way things are going, while it's not a Halo box, there is a definite slant towards shooters, and I don't see that stopping anytime soon unless the PS3 flops harder than I'm expecting.
MightyHedgehog
Member
Three years from now? Somehow, I don't think the market's gonna wait that long. They never do. It's snowball effect for consoles. Doesn't mean PS3 can't be better on their own, relative to this current period of suck.
SuperPac
Member
mrpeabody said:
Yep, even if they're able to cost-reduce the hardware later in the year, they are gonna want to spend as long as they can at their current price points. I think any reaction they have to Wii will be too late. And Wii isn't what they should be reacting to anyway.
Maybe not even then because this is hardware they're making money on at this point (right?).
They have really screwed themselves this time. They figured the PlayStation brand would make them #1, even though that didn't work with PSP. They can't drop the price because even if they got within range of the 360's price, Microsoft would likely drop at the same time and keep the price difference just about the same. And if they did do a dramatic price reduction how likely is it that they'd piss off consumers that bought their machine at the much higher price just a few months before?
They need software and unfortunately for them they're looking down the barrel of several months' worth of licensed movie ports, multiplatform ports and a slow summer selling season. Next game I'm looking forward to is R&C:Future.
Synth_floyd
Banned
MS should drop the price. The Wii is a competitor. Maybe not in their minds but in reality it is. If the Wii continues to be such a big hit, developers will move away from big budget games on the PS3/Xbox 360 and towards the low cost Wii. Devs will go where the hardware is, and right now the Wii is on track to overtake the 360 this year. That hurts MS regardless of the PR spin of "the Wii is targeting a different demographic."
Also, what happened to Crackdown? Wasn't it a top software seller last month? Now it didn't even crack the top 10. Wonder if people really did just buy it for the Halo beta.
Also, what happened to Crackdown? Wasn't it a top software seller last month? Now it didn't even crack the top 10. Wonder if people really did just buy it for the Halo beta.
I have to respectfully disagree. I think Microsoft is going to hold on to their pricetag as long as conceivably possible. Unless Sony or Nintendo (<-not gonna happen) have a pricedrop soon, I could see Microsoft carrying on with current prices well into next spring. It would not surprise me at all if this particular generation lasted longer than the previous one, as well.
Nightstick11
Banned
Schlep said:
I have to wonder about listing the JRPGs. Xbox and Xbox360 haven't shown themselves to be receptive towards Japanese games.
Halo 3 will probably outsell all the games on this list combined. But we have to wonder if that would have any significant impact on hardware sales. Xbox 360 has a great attach ratio, but it seems relatively unimpacted hardware-wise by new software releases.
It wasn't an invitation to compare quality of games. It was simply to state that the perception that MS is heavily releasing shooters isn't really true. That said, they're not actively trying to bring in casual gamers right now, and they should be looking at balancing out their portfolio in 2008 to coincide with a price drop.
Fuzion Frenzy 3? 
goldenpp72
Member
So because they may not sell like halo, they stop exsisting?
Wow
Wow
Nightstick11
Banned
Schlep said:
way to misrepresent my argument. I said significantly impact, as in cause 4xthe previous month's hardware sales. Who implied it wouldn't sell consoles?
StorablePrawn
Banned
Schlep said:
Of course we know and look forward to those games, but what about the perception of the actual buying public? A couple of those besides Halo 3 will do very well, but I don't see Blue Dragon as a Final Fantasy-level contender (more like Dragon Quest VIII was for PS2 or something), and aside from perhaps Mass Effect and Forza 2, none of those games look poised for massive, console-identity-informing sales.
I expect Microsoft to focus on differentiating themselves from Nintendo over the next few years, so more violent shooters seem likely. It's not a bad thing; it just might give Sony some leverage. Alternatively (and this is very probable, now that I'm thinking about this more), enough games like Guitar Hero, Devil May Cry, etc. go multiplatform and the Xbox inherits the PS2 image.
As for PS3 coming to some success down the road: This generation is a total oddball. Having a console based on last-gen hardware proves that. With the right marketing, Sony could start moving units once their console is affordable, if they can keep enough third parties on their side.
For the record, I have no plans to pick up a PS3 anytime soon. I'm just so surprised by the Wii that I'm really seeing this generation as being exempt from most of the wisdom gleaned from previous rounds.
SuperPac
Member
Synth_floyd said:
You could drop the price of the 360 to compete with Wii, but what would be the point? Nintendo would likely respond with a drop of their own, something they can afford to do. Microsoft is still losing money on 360 at its current price. As long as they are beating the PS3, there's little need for them to adjust pricing.
Probably see a spike in May for when the beta's actually live but it's probably done most of its sales already.
YYZ said:
I'm sure what's going on now is "only in our wildest dreams" scenario. I don't think anyone including Nintendo themselves figured Wii was gonna do what it's done. Especially in the US market.
StorablePrawn
Banned
Schlep said:
Price drop it right before it releases, and that will make for some huge sales. But without that ... I'm thinking a good chunk of the Halo audience will have a 360 before then, so we're not going to see too much more beyond the standard holiday increases.
Not too exciting numbers, seems par for the course.
A lot of bannings from the early pages of the thread?
You should be more optimistic. You already have all the systems, and you'll (as you said) get a lot of great games along the way.
Don't buy into the "OMG technology is going to stop progressing!! RPGs, FPS, all game genres are going to wither up and die!" BS because it's all whining and hype. If the course remains the same, then two lessons will be learned here:
1. Don't overprice the shit out of your system.
2. The vast majority of gamers still like technology (look how the 360 HD software is selling, and a lot of them will consider the Wiimote new 'technology) provided it doesn't break Rule Number 1.
I think that combination could be a good thing.
A lot of bannings from the early pages of the thread?
Y2Kevbug11 said:
You should be more optimistic. You already have all the systems, and you'll (as you said) get a lot of great games along the way.
Don't buy into the "OMG technology is going to stop progressing!! RPGs, FPS, all game genres are going to wither up and die!" BS because it's all whining and hype. If the course remains the same, then two lessons will be learned here:
1. Don't overprice the shit out of your system.
2. The vast majority of gamers still like technology (look how the 360 HD software is selling, and a lot of them will consider the Wiimote new 'technology) provided it doesn't break Rule Number 1.
I think that combination could be a good thing.
gollumsluvslave said:
I think you're wrong on some points. The PS3's BOM will never be as low as the 360's because of:
a) 60GB HDD
b) Bluray drive
As well, Sony has indicated that they'll be outsourcing their 65nm Cell production to TSMC (or was it UMC?). Whichever, the point is that Sony will never realize the same economies
of scale that they have with the PS2. Will they outperform MS in this regard? Probably, but it won't be enough to offset the costs involved with including the HDD and Bluray drive IMO.
When you consider higher BOM + unremarkable economies of scale together, I just can't see the PS3 ever having a lower cost or lower price than the 360. I agree on your other points about MS. They're potentially dropping the ball right now.
I don't see them as hurting or being in trouble so much as missing a great opportunity. With a price drop they could probably hurt Sony quite a bit (especially now). I still think (don't know) that Ballmer's to blame for the 360's pricing.
It is, but that in and of itself is significant. I think we're going to see the three new consoles in this pecking order until the fall, when price cuts/holiday games could shake things up. Sales patterns do NOT change easily or quickly in this industry. Having all of Q1 cement the PS3 as falling further and further behind the 360 and Wii is not at all what I expected last holiday.Vyer said:
PS3 is shit but then there is no software.
Wii is clearly still selling on its promise as there is also no real new software in the channel (I doubt Paper Mario would sell systems, likely they'd already be in hands of hardcore Nintendo fans). Interesting to see whether it has legs, but its pretty scary to watch.
360, I don't know what to think. Those are fairly disappointing numbers, but at least its selling more than PS3. PS3 really needs to close the gap quickly if it wants to have any hope of winning the generation (or at least winning the HD part)
Wii is clearly still selling on its promise as there is also no real new software in the channel (I doubt Paper Mario would sell systems, likely they'd already be in hands of hardcore Nintendo fans). Interesting to see whether it has legs, but its pretty scary to watch.
360, I don't know what to think. Those are fairly disappointing numbers, but at least its selling more than PS3. PS3 really needs to close the gap quickly if it wants to have any hope of winning the generation (or at least winning the HD part)
We're just now entering the era of the 10GB install. Supreme Commander's "Recommended" system requirements are 10GB, and WoW with expansion also specifies 10.zoku88 said:
The big advantage PCs have in their media is not size but access speed and latency. Hard drives are much, much faster than optical discs. Of course, this will be less of an advantage as more console games use the hdd as a cache.
Son of Godzilla
Banned
GhaleonEB said:
I still remember Che spouting this PR line something along the line of "The PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 100k for all of 2007 and it'd still be behind *whatever*". It's just funny to think that this is what MS was expecting and then look at reality. I think the Elite definently shows that MS was assuming they'd be losing North America by this point.
Corwood Rep
Member
Forgive me for being irrelevant, but what the **** happened to Godfather Wii? It's a great game and it's a shame it doesn't look to even be in the top 20. How bad did it bomb?
Musashi Wins!
FLAWLESS VICTOLY!
mrklaw said:
I think it's too late. That's a big gap. It might be the Halo Box all over again, but PS3 has nothing on that level in the same timeframe. If they could have retained a GTA timed exclusive again? Hell, that might have helped.
Agreed. I think they had originally planned the Elite to coincide with the 65 NM shrink and price drop, myself. The timing would be about when Sony would no longer be supply constrained, and Microsoft's 1st party lineup is ready to start delivering. When the die shrink - and price drop - got delayed into the 2nd half they ran with the Elite anyways thinking they needed it, even at the higher price. That's my theory anyways.Son of Godzilla said:
My quickly this industry is being turned upside down.
Incredible for the DS.
Anyway, I need your help right now. Someone would like to know why such numbers prove that the Wii is supply-constrained (vs. selling poorly). In all honesty, I couldn't prove it right now, but you guys seem quite sure it is. Any links and/or reasoning to back up this theory?
Thanks in advance.
Anyway, I need your help right now. Someone would like to know why such numbers prove that the Wii is supply-constrained (vs. selling poorly). In all honesty, I couldn't prove it right now, but you guys seem quite sure it is. Any links and/or reasoning to back up this theory?
Thanks in advance.
DefectiveReject
Banned
sonycowboy said:
Kilrogg said:
You don't need these numbers to prove it. All you have to do is take a trip to any Target, Walmart, Circuit City, Best Buy, and use your eyes while in the games section.
Nobody ever sees Wiis in the wild, sitting on the shelves. People are spewing conspiracy theories about how Nintendo isn't shipping anything at all. Yet these numbers always come out, and they beat the 360 and PS3.
Kilrogg said:
Tell this someone to go visit 5 different stores in the US tomorrow that sell video game consoles. See if he can find a Wii in any of those 5 stores. If he cannot, the most obvious conclusion is supply constraint.
When 100 different people in different parts of the country all say the same thing, it's reasonable to conclude they're not all lying, and that there might very well be a supply problem.
Anecdotal evidence from one person is useless. Anecdotal evidence from thousands of people is a pattern.
Kilrogg said:
Shouldn't matter, I thought the Wii was supply constrained in France, too. The only places I know it isn't are Mexico, Spain, New Zealand and parts of Germany.
Doom and gloom thread as expected. Europe is the biggest/richest market and that's where Sony has to sell first and foremost. They should target that market now and release games there first.
Nintendo land (the US) they should wait with.
I can understand why there are a lot of disappointed MS supporters with those numbers. They have the games and still aren't winning.
Wii are basically winning on Wii play, Zelda, Warioware and Paper Mario if we go by the games...
PSP seems to gain ground too. Seems like it has enough games now.
Nintendo land (the US) they should wait with.
I can understand why there are a lot of disappointed MS supporters with those numbers. They have the games and still aren't winning.
Wii are basically winning on Wii play, Zelda, Warioware and Paper Mario if we go by the games...
PSP seems to gain ground too. Seems like it has enough games now.
godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
LAWL @ Java... If you wanna get paid only 30k per month, yeah, go ahead and code in Java. If you wanna get paid 3 times that amount, then code in C++.zoku88 said:
MightyHedgehog said:
They way things are going I could see Wii absolutely annihilating everything leaving the PS3 and 360 rummaging for scraps.
360 is dead in Japan, doing poorly in Europe and doing pretty well in US.
PS3 is doing poorly in Japan, pretty well in Europe and poorly in US.
Wii is dominating everywhere.
The question is the does the next-gen market truly want the Wii for the next 6 years or is it a diversion until the 360/PS3 price comes down?
DefectiveReject
Banned
alterego said:
With New Wii colours yet to come and a Wii with DVD still to come (People will buy them) Wii will continue to dominate.
And I expect Wii is only a short term console anyway, and well have a GBA/DS type situation where we get new revisions more often at market affordable prices.
PS3 is here for 10yrs anyway so has plenty of time to catch up.
I worry for Xbox 360 though as I'd expect most Halo fans probably already have a 360.
Son of Godzilla
Banned
justchris said:
Using anecdotal evidence to prove Wii shortages is retarded. Using Target and BB and CC running "Sorry Wii isn't in stock" in their circulars for most the month is a bit easier.
The Innocent X
Banned
DefectiveReject said:
You guys are great
mr_bishiuk
Banned
IF MS had any sense they would drop the 360 price to coincide with GTAIV
Imagine a 360 Core bundle.. core, mem card, GTA at $250 ish? Thats an attractive proposition to the GTA fans rather than a PS3 with the game for $650
Imagine a 360 Core bundle.. core, mem card, GTA at $250 ish? Thats an attractive proposition to the GTA fans rather than a PS3 with the game for $650
MobiusPigeon
Banned
Borys said:
how is it weak? $129 vs $399. HMMMMMMMMM