Karma Kramer
Banned
Speevy said:
:lol :lol :lol
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Official March NPD Thread (The story? PS3 = weak, SW sales = insane)
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
:lol :lol :lol
Nightstick11
Banned
I think Microsoft and Sony are fighting a futile, pyrrhic battle here, even though Microsoft is soundly thrashing Sony.
Playstation 3 is pretty much locked into third place. It's been 5 months, it has launched everywhere, and contrary to what people may hope, it is unprecedented for a console to magically make a comeback. It's never happened before, especially from a deficit this large.
Microsoft has accomplished its goal. Now they should focus on fending off Nintendo, because the way it's looking, the Wii will dominate the market within 2 years. Slash the price of the premium unit or throw in some pack-in games for crying out loud. If you want to be the hub of the living room, you have to move some hardware!
Playstation 3 is pretty much locked into third place. It's been 5 months, it has launched everywhere, and contrary to what people may hope, it is unprecedented for a console to magically make a comeback. It's never happened before, especially from a deficit this large.
Microsoft has accomplished its goal. Now they should focus on fending off Nintendo, because the way it's looking, the Wii will dominate the market within 2 years. Slash the price of the premium unit or throw in some pack-in games for crying out loud. If you want to be the hub of the living room, you have to move some hardware!
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
MightyHedgehog said:
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Quite frankly you know what I think is happening with Sony?
The same thing that has been happening with a lot of Western companies recently. The one we are most aware of right now is the automobile industry. Ford, GM, etc. They are all heading into a hole due to the following.
Basically, due to internal competition, lies are used to promote one's own reputation (be it one's personal reputation or the reputation of a branch within the company). Top middle-top management (the ones below the CEO but who come up with the ideas and manage their own departments), do not wish to bring up whatever issues they may have noticed, hence problems are swept under the rug. Eventually the problems once hidden away show themselves up. The CEO panics, because CEOs are really useless and can't do shit, so middle-top management says "Hey, relax pal, no problem, we'll take care of things!". Eventually they come up with THE WORST IDEAS EVER. But everyone below them thinks in the same way they do "Woah, let's not mention the issues we are noticing, we are better off smiling and giving thumbs up! We HAVE to beat that other department so stay quiet.".
Eventually the whole company runs on nothing more than "impressions". It's no longer about facts, it's just about giving the right impression to your superiors, all the way to the top. Eventually the problems become so obvious that shit hits the fan and everyone runs around with feces all over them.
An example? From a BBC article about what Ford intends to do to make up for its disastrous sales (note that this is their response to consumer demand for fuel-efficient cars over ego-boosting monster-vehicles, you'll get where I'm going with this):
"Rival Ford will pitch in with its Mustang convertible, while GM will showcase its Chevrolet Camaro concept.
None of these retro models are getting the blood boiling on Wall Street however.
There formerly loyal financiers are deserting in droves, taking cover as the relentless onslaught from the Asian car makers continues.
Investors are spooked by models such as GM's new Cadillac Escalade, a bulky luxury sports utility vehicle (SUV) that is more a symbol of what has gone wrong for the world's largest car maker than a hint at a better future."
This, I believe, is the same kind of corporate tumor that has taken a hold of Sony as a company. It is currently affecting a bunch of other industries, all due to internal competition among different departments (usually they are asked to make a pitch, and once the worst idea somehow comes up on top thanks to dirty tactics and lies, the winning department will drive their LIE to the end, up to the point where the company as a whole will have based its corporate philosophy on theirs, and by then it's too late and the company has already dug its own grave):
To give you a better idea:
Ken: I believe that Americans want BIGGER cars, trucks even, MONSTER TRUCKS!
Fat CEO whom has been given this title so that he can keep his sweaty hands off anyone's department and just sit on his salary and because department-leaders have noticed how easily manipulatable he is: Really? I keep hearing about how they want environment-friendly cars, they want to spend less on fuel. Shouldn't we make cheaper and more fuel-efficient cars?
Ken: No not at all! That is the "other guy"'s idea. Trust me, I made the Camaro afterall!
CEO: Hmm, well times have changed, but alright. You know this stuff better than I do! Harharhar (fat laughter)!
Ken: Yes.
A few months later.
Sweating fatter CEO: Blahrblrg (throat has gotten REALLY fat). It's not working. The Asians are beating us! Nobody wants our giant non-fuel-efficient truck-cars, what the hell is going on?
Ken: Well you see, remember when I said we should make MUCH bigger monster trucks and that OTHER important staff-member said we should not and that it would in fact be dangerous for the company? Well there you go, you listened to him. Our monster trucks are NOT BIG ENOUGH. We have to make them bigger! MUCH BIGGER! Here look at this new plan.
CEO: Blarghblrghgh. Hmmmrmm. I see. It's the same truck, but everything is bigger. How expensive is that going to be for our targeted market?
Ken: Expensive? No not at all! To us: profitable. To them: Convenient!
CEO: Mrwuahff! Ha! I see! Ingenious! Ok, I'll have to fire a lot of people and close a few departments that the "other" important staff member has been running. We don't need to waste another dollar in small fuel-efficient cars. Oh by the way Ken!
Ken: Hmm?
CEO: What would you say about... A PROMOTION! :OD
Ken: Yes.
CEO: Well there you go! You are now in charge of more stuff! Haha!
Ken: Ha. Ha.
Yep, that's how it goes!
The same thing that has been happening with a lot of Western companies recently. The one we are most aware of right now is the automobile industry. Ford, GM, etc. They are all heading into a hole due to the following.
Basically, due to internal competition, lies are used to promote one's own reputation (be it one's personal reputation or the reputation of a branch within the company). Top middle-top management (the ones below the CEO but who come up with the ideas and manage their own departments), do not wish to bring up whatever issues they may have noticed, hence problems are swept under the rug. Eventually the problems once hidden away show themselves up. The CEO panics, because CEOs are really useless and can't do shit, so middle-top management says "Hey, relax pal, no problem, we'll take care of things!". Eventually they come up with THE WORST IDEAS EVER. But everyone below them thinks in the same way they do "Woah, let's not mention the issues we are noticing, we are better off smiling and giving thumbs up! We HAVE to beat that other department so stay quiet.".
Eventually the whole company runs on nothing more than "impressions". It's no longer about facts, it's just about giving the right impression to your superiors, all the way to the top. Eventually the problems become so obvious that shit hits the fan and everyone runs around with feces all over them.
An example? From a BBC article about what Ford intends to do to make up for its disastrous sales (note that this is their response to consumer demand for fuel-efficient cars over ego-boosting monster-vehicles, you'll get where I'm going with this):
"Rival Ford will pitch in with its Mustang convertible, while GM will showcase its Chevrolet Camaro concept.
None of these retro models are getting the blood boiling on Wall Street however.
There formerly loyal financiers are deserting in droves, taking cover as the relentless onslaught from the Asian car makers continues.
Investors are spooked by models such as GM's new Cadillac Escalade, a bulky luxury sports utility vehicle (SUV) that is more a symbol of what has gone wrong for the world's largest car maker than a hint at a better future."
This, I believe, is the same kind of corporate tumor that has taken a hold of Sony as a company. It is currently affecting a bunch of other industries, all due to internal competition among different departments (usually they are asked to make a pitch, and once the worst idea somehow comes up on top thanks to dirty tactics and lies, the winning department will drive their LIE to the end, up to the point where the company as a whole will have based its corporate philosophy on theirs, and by then it's too late and the company has already dug its own grave):
To give you a better idea:
Ken: I believe that Americans want BIGGER cars, trucks even, MONSTER TRUCKS!
Fat CEO whom has been given this title so that he can keep his sweaty hands off anyone's department and just sit on his salary and because department-leaders have noticed how easily manipulatable he is: Really? I keep hearing about how they want environment-friendly cars, they want to spend less on fuel. Shouldn't we make cheaper and more fuel-efficient cars?
Ken: No not at all! That is the "other guy"'s idea. Trust me, I made the Camaro afterall!
CEO: Hmm, well times have changed, but alright. You know this stuff better than I do! Harharhar (fat laughter)!
Ken: Yes.
A few months later.
Sweating fatter CEO: Blahrblrg (throat has gotten REALLY fat). It's not working. The Asians are beating us! Nobody wants our giant non-fuel-efficient truck-cars, what the hell is going on?
Ken: Well you see, remember when I said we should make MUCH bigger monster trucks and that OTHER important staff-member said we should not and that it would in fact be dangerous for the company? Well there you go, you listened to him. Our monster trucks are NOT BIG ENOUGH. We have to make them bigger! MUCH BIGGER! Here look at this new plan.
CEO: Blarghblrghgh. Hmmmrmm. I see. It's the same truck, but everything is bigger. How expensive is that going to be for our targeted market?
Ken: Expensive? No not at all! To us: profitable. To them: Convenient!
CEO: Mrwuahff! Ha! I see! Ingenious! Ok, I'll have to fire a lot of people and close a few departments that the "other" important staff member has been running. We don't need to waste another dollar in small fuel-efficient cars. Oh by the way Ken!
Ken: Hmm?
CEO: What would you say about... A PROMOTION! :OD
Ken: Yes.
CEO: Well there you go! You are now in charge of more stuff! Haha!
Ken: Ha. Ha.
Yep, that's how it goes!
With MS considering the PS3 a non-factor, not caring about the Wii at all (yet), and trying to make money, I'm expecting MS to not drop price until right before Halo 3 drops. Of course with PS3 doing so poorly, an early PS3 price cut might pressure MS to do it sooner. Maybe.Borys said:
Flesh Into Gear
Member
those fat ass CEOs i swear to god
Haunted
Member
Ah, NPD threads on GAF. 'I came for the numbers, but I stayed for the .gifs'
Anyway, now I really want to see a month where the Wii is not supply restrained. Also, I'm really surprised that the GBA won The Grudgematch - I thought we were all just joking about it in the prediction thread. :lol
If you weren't Tabris, that would be grade A meltdown stuff. It's par for the course for you though.Tabris said:
Anyway, now I really want to see a month where the Wii is not supply restrained. Also, I'm really surprised that the GBA won The Grudgematch - I thought we were all just joking about it in the prediction thread. :lol
sooperkool
Member
duketogo88 said:
It is when previously you were far and away the number 1. Investors and shareholders don't want to hear about how it used to be or to hear good enough, they want a better position than previusly. Remember every business' true goal is to become a monopoly.
SuperPac
Member
Tabris said:
Even at 499, the PS3 is still a really expensive console. And even heavy-hitting series like GTA, Metal Gear, SOCOM, Killzone, etc. haven't been enough to light a fire under PSP. Can downloaded content like LBP (not a retail product till 2008), Home, Warhawk, etc. even be considered as contenders to sell systems?
I surely thought Casino Royale Blu-Ray would've helped sell some PS3s in addition to Motorstorm but it didn't really turn out that way.
When the industry you used to monopolize suddenly has a lot of competition, its only natural to assume your piece of the pie is going to get smaller. Not a calamity. Reduced profits yes, but as long as it is a profitable venture, it will continue. See: Nintendosooperkool said:
Nightstick11
Banned
duketogo88 said:
If going from a 115-million userbase to, I don't know, a possible 20-million or so userbase isn't a calamity, I don't know how you define the word.
For reference, the 360 is FIRST right now (though probably not for long). I see no reason why Microsoft can't toss their gloves off and refuse to give an inch to Nintendo. The difference between first place and second place is huge. Look at the last two generations. The gap averages 75 million units. Microsoft has a slim chance to explode and carve a nice 40-50 million userbase that blunts the Wii's dominance. Shouldn't they go for it? Or should they be content with merely parrying Sony's living-room push?
Chris Michael
Banned
Nintendo is officially at the top again.
The Golden Age is finally returning.
The Golden Age is finally returning.
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
He's just drawing out the inevitable meltdown...Flesh Into Gear said:
Sony's plan is much longer term than Nintendo or MS. Really, is the Wii and 360 going to be around as long as PS3? Microsoft seems more than happy to roll out new hardware revisions at an unprecedented rate. I don't think Nintendo would keep the Wii longer than they have their previous consoles. Nintendo didn't even release games for their Gamecube for 5 years, they ported the last two big games to the Wii. Microsoft dropped the Xbox like a bad habit.Nightstick11 said:
I think Sony will continue with the PS3 into 2015. PS4 launch holiday 2013, but it should be a year later (2014) since the PS3 is more futureproof than PS2 was. It has the foundations for better continued support (HDD, broadband content, Home, Blu-Ray). It will only take a few years for the manufacturing costs to drop to a level where a more mass market pricepoint is realistic.
However, with all that being said, if they don't drop the price to at least $499 for this holiday, I'll be in the GAF sidelines shaking my head, no pompoms.
duketogo88 said:
Umm.. it is, especially when you're nor making profit in that position. This isnt the kind of industry where profits are easily made with a humble hardware base- unless you're Nintendo, of course. Even in distant 3rd place, they were in the green. The potential profits they seem set to make this generation is colossal- just as collosal as the potential losses PS3 seems to be setting out to make this generation for Sony.
YYZ said:
And you really believe devs are willing and ready to wait 'a few years' for the system to start selling in a substantial amount? Please, regardless of how 'long term' Sony's goal for the PS3 is, the truth of the matter is that the here and now dictates long-term feasibility, and not Sony's aspirations.
MightyHedgehog
Member
Hmmm...Ether_Snake said:
The reason Sony is ****ing up right now is because they wanted to push a format first, a gaming system second. Perhaps, they saw it as pushing both at the same time, but when you see how high the price was out of the gate ($300 more than they ever debuted with for a console in NA), it's clear what was more important.
They simply miscalculated on how popular the format would be and how much their brand name would mean to carry them long enough to drop and be that competitively priced game system they've been for the last two generations. The blue diodes situation and resulting cost and time delays threw a major monkey wrench into their plans. They also had the typical problems with new technology and the development situation for them and third parties. Add grand plans to compete toe to toe with MS on online and the whole thing just lays itself out on the floor.
As Dragona and others would say, it's 1997. In the space of about a year and half, attitudes changed very, very dramatically about who would be front runner for the generation. Anyone who pinned a lot of money on the third place guy could easily lose their shirt.
thingonaspring said:
Don't be silly. Sony, at worst, will limp through the generation like the Saturn or Neo Geo...relying on their internal software devs and a few third parties to support the platform for anyone who wants it. There will be a PS4.
Nightstick11
Banned
zoku88 said:
Let's hope they've learned their lesson. Somehow I think Iwata's hand will be gentler on the proverbial cheeks of 3rd party developers than Yamauchi's was.
YYZ said:
This is very true and all, but Sony cannot afford to swallow the cost of keeping the PS3 around indefinitely. It's highly unlikely they'll make profit on it at this point. This is significant because the videogames division was responsible for upwards of 33% of Sony revenue. If that revenue suddenly plummets, Sony will either a) have to make up the difference from other divisions or b) scrap the PS3 and swallow their losses.
Sony could continue with the PS3 into 2015, but they probably won't. If trends continue, Sony will be forced to discontinue the PS3 far before 2015.
Also keep in mind that both Microsoft and Wii could easily fart out a just-as-powerful console in 2011 with more "Ooooh aahhhh" factor in the eyes of consumers, while the PS3 by 2011 will be looked at as old news.
well I stopped reading right around there, you have no idea what you're talking about and you just wasted all that time writing a big post of nothing. Do you think CEOs are paid the big bucks for shits and giggles? A company without a strong CEO is doomed to failure.Ether_Snake said:
Chief Executive Officer, look up "executive" in the dictionary pal. The president of America is at the top of the excutive branch of government. He's not useless and he can do shit.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
YYZ said:
EDIT: Basically yes, they put up CEOs that won't come and play and **** up their plans/departments. They sabotage their own businesses for their own sake, until shit hits the fan.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
I still can't believe how things have turned out. Shit...even the mention of nintendo possibily being #2 was enough to get a good laugh on gaf, let alone #1
Infernal Monkey
Member
TheOMan said:
I heard a rumour that the PS2 has an insane amount of extremely good games at awesome prices, and people may be wanting to actually play them.
DevelopmentArrested
Banned
nm
MiamiWesker
Member
TSA said:
Kind of far back but how accurate is this? What are the Europe and JPN numbers?
Well, I called the Wii totally wrong, but at least the demand is there, the Wii obviously is not, I ended up high-balling the PS3, I wonder how the spin machine at Sony is going to explain this one away, 130k over 5 weeks? that is frankly pathetic for a console that should have exploited March with some decent games out and decent announcements.
If this keeps up, Sony will be in an untenable position, unable to drop the price due to margin issues, unable to keep it the same due to sales issues, I wouldn't want to be Stringer right now.
If this keeps up, Sony will be in an untenable position, unable to drop the price due to margin issues, unable to keep it the same due to sales issues, I wouldn't want to be Stringer right now.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
MightyHedgehog said:
Sure, but the thing is to miscalculate you have to calculate first (you have to reason, to think, analyze, etc.). And this is done by people. Those people take information, and eventually the CEO takes all that info and says "Ok" or "No". But this comes from people who don't respect their CEOs to begin with, they are thinking about their plans, their careers, their departments, so the information they hand him is totally spinned in their own favors.
Of course it's not like that at every companies, but it appears to be what is going on at Sony, and quite frankly Kutaragi seems to fill that kind of profile perfectly.
Haunted One said:
I may have been the first to revive the jpg and get The Grudgematch back in the discussion for March NPD. But I was joking around. I honestly didn't expect the GBA to come out ahead. I haven't said anything about it yet because.. I was at a loss for words. It's funny, and kind of cool, and yet, sad and depressing all at the same time.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Heh. Xbox had a "Halo" from launch and that got it a distant, distant second.zoku88 said:
X360 was getting a head start, not falling further behind its most direct competitors each month. X360 was supply constrained, and still doing better.Kintaro said:
Probably.suffah said:
It's worth pointing out that PS1 dropped to $50 in the US in May 2002, having been out 6 years and 8 months. PS2 remains a much higher priced console than PS1 was.Hcoregamer00 said:
The PlayStation 1 and 2 strategy was to lose at first to keep the hardware affordable, then profit off of the giant user base. And in the case of PS2, being so popular they didn't have to drop the price much or often. PS3 isn't following that strategy. GameCube was designed to be cost-efficient, so Nintendo would take minimal losses and easily make the difference up through software. PS3 isn't following that strategy. That leaves the Xbox strategy: lose billions of dollars.duketogo88 said:
SuperPac
Member
YYZ said:
But if you don't sell enough systems, third parties won't stick around for long. If the console remains the most expensive item on the menu, you've gotta wonder how long that "long-term plan" will remain intact.
If they are consistently selling better than the PS3? Yes. Why not?
Does futureproofing a system actually make it better or worse to the consumer? If I'm a consumer that doesn't own an HDTV, doesn't have Internet anywhere near my TV, etc. then the PS3 offers a whole lot of features I don't need. Do most consumers buy excessively more than they need at the time or do they buy what they can afford? For this futureproofing to work you're expecting a lot from the mass market.
They're gonna have to do something, but even $499 is not enough. They really had to match the 360's price from the beginning. They didn't, so they've painted themselves into a bit of a corner.
MightyHedgehog
Member
Kutaragi's one guy and he has people that sign off on his work. There's more to blame than KK on this. (Stringer came in too late, apparently.) There was a group of people responsible for PS3. And their thinking, influenced by other people in their corporation, was to boost the entire company using its flagship product...the best single product line they've ever had...the same one that had saved the company's bacon for years...the Playstation.Ether_Snake said:
They came in at double the price they ever had before in NA (yeah, **** that 20GB model 'cause that shit was meant to be limited time only, but they wouldn't tell you that). No way you're jeopardizing your company's most important product for just anything. It had to be something that could sustain them on a long-term basis with little maintenance. What does that? Media formats. Royalties up the wazoo and nice hardware sales of their own players for years. DVD doesn't bring home the bacon quite as much any more thanks to super-price competitive Chinese, Korean, and Taiwanese made players.
Cell and all that shit would've been part of it. Those wheels were spinning on that shit years before...when they looked like they could do no wrong, at the beginning of their ascension with PS2.
JonathanEx
Member
Well, that about wraps it up for Nintendo!
truth-lasers
Member
Have anyone added up the total NPD for the different systems since their respective launch (or how far back the NPD tracks) or is that info on the net somewhere?
Phife Dawg
Member
Yep just shows that the stupid argument: "People will look at Wii's gfx in 1 or 2 years and will just stop buying the machine bc it looks so outdated" Is just, well, stupid.YYZ said:
It's just as stupid to say: "PS3 has a 10 year lifecycle ahead of it, you have to use different measures". If PS3 sales continue to be weak it'll have a short lifecycle-regardless of the technology being future-proof or not. PS2's lifecycle is so long bc it has the userbase to keep software development alive and people still buy the hard- and software.
If PS3 continues at this pace it'll be on first/second-party life support pretty soon (like GC). And you can't keep a console alive 10 years mainly on first/second-party software. The market will move on and you'll be left behind.
YYZ said:
PS2 and GBA also annihilated their competition when they were in the early parts of their life cycles.
edit - and whatever happened to us being able to request a few sales numbers outside the top ten? If that's still a possibility, how about the numbers for EDF on 360 and Virtua Tennis on 360/PS3?