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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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Or not having his program yet and dismissing those who want to see it.
I think it's a bad argument though. A program is a bone sent to undecided voters more than anything else.
Alx
Member
I still don't know why the Algeria thing is such a big deal for some people. Even if some "Pieds Noirs" may disapprove of the independence of Algeria, do they deny some war crimes were commited there ? Beyond that, the difference between "war crime" or "crime against humanity" is a matter of semantics, where Macron may be technically wrong but that's a moot point.
Anyway it's expected that candidate polls will go up and down right now, considering the situation. And I don't think either that the current lack of program is an issue. It's true that people start looking into the programs in the last weeks (if they ever do), discussing it too early is just asking for trouble. See how Fillon is already backpedaling on some of his propositions.
I'm aware of that, I was just wondering how people felt about it.
I guess he is going to enter the race, otherwise he wouldn't call for a press conference in the afternoon and then attend the 20h TV news.
Anyway it's expected that candidate polls will go up and down right now, considering the situation. And I don't think either that the current lack of program is an issue. It's true that people start looking into the programs in the last weeks (if they ever do), discussing it too early is just asking for trouble. See how Fillon is already backpedaling on some of his propositions.
I'm aware of that, I was just wondering how people felt about it.
I guess he is going to enter the race, otherwise he wouldn't call for a press conference in the afternoon and then attend the 20h TV news.
Alx
Member
Can somebody please explain to me the poll results for the second round: for Le Pen to get over 40% she would surely need to get around 15m votes unless voter turnout is rock bottom but even a crook like Chirac managed to get the vote out in 2002. Looking at all the election arithmetic I can't see her getting more than 8-9m.
WHY
Different times...
Turnout will fall, whoever face Lepen.
Also Bayrou is in. Not really a surprise.
Alx
Member
Big personal risk for him if he's short on money, since he's currently hovering around 5%. If he gets below that he'll be broke.
Anyway it makes more sense for someone like him to go on his own rather than support a candidate he doesn't agree with. It was always his thing to defend ideas rather than political arithmetics. Which got him some respect. And most of his failures too.
Anyway it makes more sense for someone like him to go on his own rather than support a candidate he doesn't agree with. It was always his thing to defend ideas rather than political arithmetics. Which got him some respect. And most of his failures too.
Damn it Bayrou. I like you, but with our current voting system we can't split the moderates ad infinitum.
Regarding Macron's comments on colonization and Algeria, I'm not surprised that people were offended, but I don't see where he's wrong. Colonization was a crime against those colonized. And Algeria was as dirty a war as they get.
As things currently stand, it's either Macron or Fillon. If you don't like Fillon, a vote for Hamon or Bayrou is essentially a vote for Fillon (much like a vote for Stein was a vote for Trump in November). Stupid voting system.
Regarding Macron's comments on colonization and Algeria, I'm not surprised that people were offended, but I don't see where he's wrong. Colonization was a crime against those colonized. And Algeria was as dirty a war as they get.
As things currently stand, it's either Macron or Fillon. If you don't like Fillon, a vote for Hamon or Bayrou is essentially a vote for Fillon (much like a vote for Stein was a vote for Trump in November). Stupid voting system.
HarryKS
Member
I still don't know why the Algeria thing is such a big deal for some people. Even if some "Pieds Noirs" may disapprove of the independence of Algeria, do they deny some war crimes were commited there ? Beyond that, the difference between "war crime" or "crime against humanity" is a matter of semantics, where Macron may be technically wrong but that's a moot point.
Anyway it's expected that candidate polls will go up and down right now, considering the situation. And I don't think either that the current lack of program is an issue. It's true that people start looking into the programs in the last weeks (if they ever do), discussing it too early is just asking for trouble. See how Fillon is already backpedaling on some of his propositions.
I'm aware of that, I was just wondering how people felt about it.
I guess he is going to enter the race, otherwise he wouldn't call for a press conference in the afternoon and then attend the 20h TV news.
Not the same thing, but gives an idea:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owFF0K9-jcs
Alx
Member
Oh well, I guess it's the safer decision. Still a bit disappointing though.
He does have several conditions for that alliance, I wonder what will happen if Macron doesn't accept them. (it was the perfect moment to ask for those anyway, just when Macron's popularity starts to deflate)
He does have several conditions for that alliance, I wonder what will happen if Macron doesn't accept them. (it was the perfect moment to ask for those anyway, just when Macron's popularity starts to deflate)
Alx
Member
Not popular enough to be elected, but he's generally respected. Which is more than most of the other candidates can say.
To be fair there was a Bayrou-shaped hole in the political spectrum between Macron and Fillon. He could have fitted there perfectly, but like he says it would benefit the FN in the end.
We don't know that. Everything points to the opposite (2002 and 2015 élections, +8 points BOTH times when the far-right was high or leading)
Yes, but turnover was low for both of these elections. 1st round in 2002 was the worst of the history of the 5th republic for a presidential election.
I heavily suspect that radical left voters won't show up for Fillon or Macron on the second turn, even of they are facing Lepen.
Palette Swap
Member
I honestly didn't expect Bayrou to explicitly, if conditionally, endorse Macron.
I had a couple of LR guys near me this morning in a TGV, they were having the mother of all arguments about Fillon, one following the party line ("it's Hollande", "everyone does it", "antidemocratic journalism") while the other was lamenting how bad they look ("we can't be credible when talking to people who earn 1000 and ask efforts of them when our candidate's wife earned more than they will in a lifetime"),
So what ?
Polls expect the rate of abstention to be bigger than 2012's election so it would allow a lower rate for the second round.
Maybe but we don't know. Also radical left voters are not the only one that could move the abstention up or down.
They were expecting an alliance with him in January.
Now we'll have to see how it changes things for Macron now that it's sure that Bayrou won't campaign against him : will he lose the "anti-system" credibility, given that you can perceive this alliance as a trade ? will all Bayrou voters, non-voting centrists people and christians/centrists from Fillon rally Macron ?
From what I read (so it's biased, please add what you read if necessary)
Most journalists and people that aren't pro-Le Pen said this was nicely done so that we don't talk about how the justice is investigating in their headquarters the same day. They also pointed out that she wasn't received by many officials and that they weren't exactly convinced by what she said.
Far-right was glad she stood up to "islamism" and defended "women's rights". Good old colonialism, éduquons ces bronzés avec notre laïcité.
Alx
Member
There were always limitations to how "anti-system" he can appear, especially when he was a major minister of the previous government. As a matter of fact Bayrou legitimizes him more as "anti-system" now, since he's always been the "maverick", doing his own stuff separately from the major parties.
With that alliance Macron can be more than "one of Hollande's boys", or "the evil banker who's all about business and money".
Meh, it's not like her opinions were a secret to anyone. I guess her base applauded and the rest didn't care much.
Comments about Macron and Bayrou on social media are really disgusting and vile, wow. I especially like the "tous sauf Macron" (anything but Macron) comments, like how can a centrist candidate be the worst of the worst? Of course it's mostly coming from Le Pen and Fillon fans, but there are some comments from the left side too.
Also, I live abroad and I don't know how they got my email address, but I'm starting to get anti-Macron propaganda. Some dude acting like he knows me telling me how Macron is the man behind the Fillon scandal etc. Say what you will about Macron, but he is triggering a lot of people
Also, I live abroad and I don't know how they got my email address, but I'm starting to get anti-Macron propaganda. Some dude acting like he knows me telling me how Macron is the man behind the Fillon scandal etc. Say what you will about Macron, but he is triggering a lot of people
Comments about Macron and Bayrou on social media are really disgusting and vile, wow. I especially like the "tous sauf Macron" (anything but Macron) comments, like how can a centrist candidate be the worst of the worst? Of course it's mostly coming from Le Pen and Fillon fans, but there are some comments from the left side too.
Also, I live abroad and I don't know how they got my email address, but I'm starting to get anti-Macron propaganda. Some dude acting like he knows me telling me how Macron is the man behind the Fillon scandal etc. Say what you will about Macron, but he is triggering a lot of people
Lord Putin is getting desperate.
Comments about Macron and Bayrou on social media are really disgusting and vile, wow. I especially like the "tous sauf Macron" (anything but Macron) comments, like how can a centrist candidate be the worst of the worst? Of course it's mostly coming from Le Pen and Fillon fans, but there are some comments from the left side too.
Also, I live abroad and I don't know how they got my email address, but I'm starting to get anti-Macron propaganda. Some dude acting like he knows me telling me how Macron is the man behind the Fillon scandal etc. Say what you will about Macron, but he is triggering a lot of people
Astroturfing starting up? Putin has a vested interest in not getting Macron. Macron has done nothing that I've heard of to warrant this level of hatred...
gutter_trash
Banned
Putin doesn't care, he wants Europe to fracture and wants to peddle nationalist candidates to get elected so each country's nationalist leader turns its back to the EU
Why are my friends expecting me to vote Macron ? I'm not voting for more austerity, more neoliberal policies and most of all for someone who doesn't even have a real program other than " I'm not the candidate of any party ".
As for Hamon I find him weak and even though I agree with him on some social and economic policies I feel like electing someone like him will be our downfall in these times of hightened terrorism and rampant radicalization of our youth. He completely lost me when he gave his opinion on la laicité. I can't stand this new left who keeps bending backward for outdated religions.
Who am I supposed to vote for ? No way I'm voting for a right wing candidate, even less a crook like Fillon.
I guess I won't vote in the first round and will vote for whoever is facing Marine in the second round ... What a sad state of affairs.
As for Hamon I find him weak and even though I agree with him on some social and economic policies I feel like electing someone like him will be our downfall in these times of hightened terrorism and rampant radicalization of our youth. He completely lost me when he gave his opinion on la laicité. I can't stand this new left who keeps bending backward for outdated religions.
Who am I supposed to vote for ? No way I'm voting for a right wing candidate, even less a crook like Fillon.
I guess I won't vote in the first round and will vote for whoever is facing Marine in the second round ... What a sad state of affairs.
Palette Swap
Member
I know we were all saying this in 2007, but this is the best shot Centrists have had at a presidential election in nearly 40 years.
I'm really curious to see if this will change the political landscape and how much it will. I'm not even sure Macron is the right guy, with the right ideas for it, but at the very least, he's a symptom of the rifts you can find in both mainstream parties.
The most disappointing thing so far is seeing UDI align itself with LR. I guess they bound themselves to Fillon with that primary, but I don't believe for a second they somehow share more ideas with Fillon than with Bayrou or Macron.
I'm really curious to see if this will change the political landscape and how much it will. I'm not even sure Macron is the right guy, with the right ideas for it, but at the very least, he's a symptom of the rifts you can find in both mainstream parties.
The most disappointing thing so far is seeing UDI align itself with LR. I guess they bound themselves to Fillon with that primary, but I don't believe for a second they somehow share more ideas with Fillon than with Bayrou or Macron.
I guess you could throw your first round vote at EELV if they have a candidate running. They're incredibly weakened and their party is a shitshow, but I usually do that, if only to signal that environmental issues matter.
At this point Macron is the vote utile to keep the FN away. A Fillon/Le Pen second round is getting increasingly dangerous as Fillon's image is deteriorating among the electorate. Most on the left would vote Macron against Le Pen, even reluctantly, but the risk is that not enough would want to vote for Fillon if he was to be on round 2.
Quite spectacularly, the markets seem to share this opinion. The news of Bayrou endorsing Macron had a major impact on CAC40, Euro value and French yields, just because it means less chances for MLP to win.
Quite spectacularly, the markets seem to share this opinion. The news of Bayrou endorsing Macron had a major impact on CAC40, Euro value and French yields, just because it means less chances for MLP to win.
BaronLundi
Member
Maybe because it looks like it could be our best shot at not getting a LePen presidency?
Anyway, you could start by considering voting for someone who is not a crook.
Although I totally understand you disagreeing with Macron and Hamon's policies they are NOTparangons of corrupted pro-Putin conservative bigots like LePen and Fillon. This is important. Lowering their score is important. Having these 2 make up 50% of the first round would not be a good sign by any measure. Hell, LePen getting good polls alone is starting to put financial duress on the country.
And there are other candidates.
As far as I'm concerned, Macron is pro-European and that's enough to convince to give him my vote regardless of any disagreement I might have with him on many other subjects. Given the current state of affairs I'm convinced having him take over the reins would be incomparably better than any other alternative.
on a side note I never realized how hilarious was Mélenchon's program, or at least what's exposed in his book "l'avenir en commun"
like leaving the WTO, NATO and quite certainly the EU but start working on agreements with the Bolivarian Alliance in South America. Or tax products based on how far they're coming from... not even scratching the part where he starts talking about building a permanent submarine base, cleaning Earth's orbit or studying space threats
like leaving the WTO, NATO and quite certainly the EU but start working on agreements with the Bolivarian Alliance in South America. Or tax products based on how far they're coming from... not even scratching the part where he starts talking about building a permanent submarine base, cleaning Earth's orbit or studying space threats
It's not going to fall so much that the FN will get 40%+ of the vote in the second round. The presidential election is a slightly different beast but more often than not the FN's percentage of the vote stays about the same or even dips when they get to the second round in elections, they don't make big gains. They're very few people's second choice.
And yeah Melenchon is a plank. On the surface he seems like an outdated lefty but harmless enough (plenty of those around in French politics!) however the more you scratch away you see just how ridiculous and dangerous he really is. I wish he would fuck off into orbit.
Like everyone is saying, your friends are desperate not to get Fillon or Le Pen (and obviously Le Pen is dreaming about facing Fillon in the 2nd round.) None of this is rocket science, it's the same shit we've been seeing during the whole of 2016.
Le Pen is dreaming of actually facing Macron in the second round to.
Macron is not as left as I would like him to be but in order to prevent a Le Pen from getting into the Elysee Palace if I lived in france I would have voted for Macron in the first and second round.
The FN will definitely break 30% in the second round, but I'm not sure if they will break 40% in the second round yet. Polls may actually be overestimating le pen's support in the second round right now.
Also who would the French far left vote for in a theoretical le pen vs macron second round?
Obviously you're entitled to your opinion but that doesn't make any sense. Fillon is tanking in the polls because he is seen as corrupt, and everyone on the left hate his guts. He's also the perfect cover-up for Le Pen's own judicial problems (her chief of staff was just indicted for - surprise! - organizing the theft of public money through fake jobs).
What opponent could be worse for Le Pen than Macron?
Le Pen thinks she can use Macron's history in the banking industry and his connections to the french elite against him.
Le Pen probably thinks a lot of things, but every poll and analysis I've seen points to Macron being her worst opponent by far.
Ether_Snake
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Le Pen would probably prefer Fillon, but one way or another her goal will be to attract those on the left who are tired of voting for the economic right just for the sake of not voting FN, who feel trapped and will be ready to give Le Pen a chance; the good old appeal of nationalism-populism/socialism.
If you really understand the average white "liberal", then you know that many of them see things as follows:
1- Immigrants are conservatives, but vote left because they put their economic needs first. As soon as they are out of poverty, they lean right; anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-public school, pro-religion, anti-women, etc. "This is why women are never elected PM/president on the left, only conservatives do it" they say. They don't like immigrants, they like socialism, and just want to beat the conservatives.
2- Anti-immigration policies don't affect them, so even if they were against those policies they can easily gloss over them if other policies not provided by other candidates attract them, especially left-of-center policies on healthcare and jobs.
3- They hate the establishment, the banks. A candidate issued from those is one they inherently dislike if not hate outright.
4- They can easily give up voting if they feel they are screwed either way.
So Le Pen has a chance to get her base, who will certainly show up to vote, and dissatisfied voters sick of the establishment and whatever candidates the establishment favors.
I think people underestimate her chances in the second round.
But right now I expect Fillon in third in the first round, Le Pen in first, and this will rally people to go out and vote for Macron in the 2nd round and win it. But the line is thin, you can't except people to go through this every election and always have to throw their vote to avoid Le Pen, there is a diminishing effect with every election in her favor.
It might be the most important election the EU ever had yet. If Le Pen wins, it's over.
If you really understand the average white "liberal", then you know that many of them see things as follows:
1- Immigrants are conservatives, but vote left because they put their economic needs first. As soon as they are out of poverty, they lean right; anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-public school, pro-religion, anti-women, etc. "This is why women are never elected PM/president on the left, only conservatives do it" they say. They don't like immigrants, they like socialism, and just want to beat the conservatives.
2- Anti-immigration policies don't affect them, so even if they were against those policies they can easily gloss over them if other policies not provided by other candidates attract them, especially left-of-center policies on healthcare and jobs.
3- They hate the establishment, the banks. A candidate issued from those is one they inherently dislike if not hate outright.
4- They can easily give up voting if they feel they are screwed either way.
So Le Pen has a chance to get her base, who will certainly show up to vote, and dissatisfied voters sick of the establishment and whatever candidates the establishment favors.
I think people underestimate her chances in the second round.
But right now I expect Fillon in third in the first round, Le Pen in first, and this will rally people to go out and vote for Macron in the 2nd round and win it. But the line is thin, you can't except people to go through this every election and always have to throw their vote to avoid Le Pen, there is a diminishing effect with every election in her favor.
It might be the most important election the EU ever had yet. If Le Pen wins, it's over.
You're making good points. I just wish Macron was a bit more on the left. He would have gotten my vote easily.
Anyways I just checked the polls and realized that Fillon is now ahead of Macron .. what the fuck is going on ?? I thought Fillon was steadily declining in the polls and Macron had the second round on lock.
Nah they are genuinely excited about Macron and think he's gonna change things for the better ... sigh ...
But again most of them are young " Grandes écoles " educated people who have good jobs in the banking industry.
Fillon poll numbers will drop again soon
I'm too much of a cynic to get excited by Macron, but he's the most exciting of the bunch. Hamon doesn't stand a chance, and the other options are Fillon or Le Pen. Eek.
So they like him because he's like them...
None of the above. That's the thing. I'm one of them, I live in the middle of them, and there is no way they vote for Macron.
The last 5 years had a terrible effect on leftists, they will never vote for Macron. Even if Mélenchon calls for voting against Lepen (like he did in 2012 against Sarkozy).
How hilarious to have a program indeed. Better screaming "Vision" and "Projet" all day long
I have a feeling some peoplee in france are not that happy that they have to worry about another le pen getting into the second round of a french presidential election this year. I don't what will happen in france if Marine Le Pen or her neice ends up as the frontrunner for the 2022 french elections.I seriously hope marine le pen gets crushed in the second round and the FN shrinks back into irrelvancy like what happened after the 2002 presidential election
Macron has a book too y'knowHow hilarious to have a program indeed. Better screaming "Vision" and "Projet" all day long
Also "at least he has a program" is hardly an argument. As I said it's a bone for non-decided voters, once you're in charge things aren't the same and you have to get rid of the silly stuff to actually govern the country. I can't bring myself to think Mélenchon sat down and thought for one second about the steps he'd have to take to bring his sixth republic, or renegotiate EU treaties.
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