Trigonometrize.
Member
If the PS4 to PS4 Pro is a 0.3333333333 step, I agree that the PS4 Pro to PS5 is a half step. 2019 is probably correct. PS4 BC is like a 15% chance.
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Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
Just how tech advance, price go down. I highly doubt they'll sell the next baseline console (be it the ps5 or the xbox whatever after scorpio) more than 399$ that's what move a lot of unit.
Nowhere near an expert, just a guess.
Yea feels like some people coming in don't read the op lol.
A better CPU is happening. 15TF AMD GPU's will be what the highest single GPU's are in 2019. Like a 7970 was to the PS4's GPU. Aka its not happening. Right now the fury X is 8.6 tflops and the strongest single GPU AMD has.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
They can't run with Jaguar again under any circumstances.
You really think so? We already up to 11.5 now. I could see a Nvidia GPU at 18-20TF by late 2019. I know AMD is well behind them so it doesn't mean much for PS4 though.
I would hope PS5 would have about 12TF to run 4K with no compromises.
Omnii-chan
Member
Cerny said at least 8TF for true 4k, so I expect at least that.
Then they can also say for marketting "double performance of PS4 Pro".
Then they can also say for marketting "double performance of PS4 Pro".
Lol no
Patcher is probably right. Xb1x is coming later this year (4 years after 4 and xb1 base) at 6tf/12gbram/jaguar for $499.
Getting near twice the flops, better/more ram, and a significantly better CPU + a small case in 2/3 years at $399? No.
I'm guessing around 7 or 8tf, 12-16gb of ram, and a new CPU at $399 in 19/20.
I think the mid gen refreshes are gonna give some folks higher expectations for next gen. Especially the XBO X.
I agree with both of these posts tho.
Mr_Antimatter
Member
They aren't going to go with Jaguar again. Hell, I don't think AMD woudl even care to make another jag derived chip.
My thought is it's going to be Zen based probably off the AMD Pinnacle Ridge line of APU's, or at least, the laptop/mobile versions of those chips.
My thought is it's going to be Zen based probably off the AMD Pinnacle Ridge line of APU's, or at least, the laptop/mobile versions of those chips.
RealityPales
Member
There's a huge difference between analysts and predictors.
Pachter is very much the former. Let's stop listening to this guy.
Pachter is very much the former. Let's stop listening to this guy.
I think it is not going to be a half step at all. I expect 10-13TFLOPs and a much better CPU. That alone will be a generation leap. And then of course you have to take in mind that PS5 will have exclusive games, so unlike Pro it wont be held back by PS4.
I also think it is going to be 2020, not 2019. Backward compatibility is a given imo.
I also think it is going to be 2020, not 2019. Backward compatibility is a given imo.
Interficium
Banned
That stance could change tomorrow if Cerny's bosses wanted to. NeoGaf really, really hates the idea of there not being hard reset generations but clearly the industry is headed that way. I think it would be really hard for Sony or Microsoft to pitch the huge AAA third parties on another hard reset of their install base in the face of dev costs that are continuing to skyrocket.
I see PS5 improvements more in the CPU side than GPU, and 100% ps4 pro compatible with forced high quality texture filtering ala Xbox One X
HDMI 2.1 doesn't seem to support 240Hz native so whatever VR things might either use some pushed through HDMI 2.2 or some half-spec custom 1080p/240 setting through 2.1 48 Gb cables. Honestly, I see variable refresh being the big VR QoL improvement than 240 Hz but the nicest VR stuff I've used was Oculus DK2
No way, a console releasing late 2017 has 6tf and a weak jaguar CPU and is still launching at $500. No way we're getting a system that has over twice the gpu AND CPU power three years later at a lower price.
You think 6-7 years between consoles is "too early"? Dude no. Sony, liberate us from this Jaguar wasteland
ScaryShark
Banned
Xbox is going to maul them in the States if the PS5 doesn't work with PS4 games natively right out the gate.
Duxxy3
Member
Still going with my idea that it'll be 8ish tflops. Ryzen based processor. 16GB of ram.
Basically double the overall capability of the PS4 pro, and almost 5 times that of the regular PS4.
But it will come out at $499 and won't really harm mainstream PS4 sales. Especially considering how the majority of games are still playable on a regular, cheapo, PS4.
Basically double the overall capability of the PS4 pro, and almost 5 times that of the regular PS4.
But it will come out at $499 and won't really harm mainstream PS4 sales. Especially considering how the majority of games are still playable on a regular, cheapo, PS4.
crustchump
Member
not saying this to start a fight, but could anyone tell me what it is about pachter that made him a sort of high profile video game analyst? is it just because he's one of the only full time "analysts" with a media presence?
i feel like i've been hearing about him for a decade at this point, but never really learned anything about him other than 1) he makes predictions and 2) it's sort of funny how much he misses the mark sometimes.
was there ever a point when pachter was consistently correct in his commentary or predictions? is he actually right most of the time and i'm just being ignorant because my perspective is informed by only reading gaf posts about him?
edit: also to actually contribute to the thread, i feel like he's probably right here but hopefully it won't be called "ps5." that would be kind of confusing for a half-step console.
i feel like i've been hearing about him for a decade at this point, but never really learned anything about him other than 1) he makes predictions and 2) it's sort of funny how much he misses the mark sometimes.
was there ever a point when pachter was consistently correct in his commentary or predictions? is he actually right most of the time and i'm just being ignorant because my perspective is informed by only reading gaf posts about him?
edit: also to actually contribute to the thread, i feel like he's probably right here but hopefully it won't be called "ps5." that would be kind of confusing for a half-step console.
So we can't even tell him not to quit his day job without irony.
I hate to say this, but 60 FPS doesn't sell AAA nearly as well as more pretty graphics and tricks to make 30 FPS look smooth
StrongBlackVine
Banned
What? When PS5 comes out Sony first party studios will be making games exclusively for it. PS4 and PS4 Pro will be legacy consoles at that point. Also there is no way it going to be only 8TF and $499. That would be pitiful.
Part of his job is to make forecasts.
zerokoolpsx
Member
240 fps and PS4 Pro BC? I agree with the 2019 release, but nothing else.
Considering even at 7nm Sony has to contend with 16GB of GDDR6 or HBM in addition to the CPU, and balancing out the GPU has to take a priority for them with an APU, so i think 10tflops is right around that point.
And considering Cerny thinks running all current gen games at 4K easily(at console settings of course) would need 8tflops, an extra 2 is more than enough.
godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
2020. 2019 is too early to cut on the userbase.
7nm and architectural improvements are inevitable.
A Zen 3 CPU at 7nm in an APU will likely not cost much more, or take up much more space than jaguar does right now. GPU advancements as well at 7nm are doable in 2 to 3 years for Sony to hit 399$.
Jaguar is never being used by a console again after XB1X, you heard it here first
Consoles are more than numbers and the PS5 needs to be able to render or introduce some sort of feat that directly draws a line in the sand.
Cerny himself has mentioned its not about the power, but what the power enables the developers to do.
I see the PS5 as the next shift towards techniques considered too resource heavy for this generation. Universal global illumination, primitive voxel based rendering, higher fidelity ambient occlusion techniques, etc.
Cerny himself has mentioned its not about the power, but what the power enables the developers to do.
I see the PS5 as the next shift towards techniques considered too resource heavy for this generation. Universal global illumination, primitive voxel based rendering, higher fidelity ambient occlusion techniques, etc.
12tf with roughly 700gb/s of RAM bandwith and a Ryzen CPU of 3.2GHz or better (8 cores/16 threads) would be a very nice baseline for next gen. Really hoping they get there.
That said, if the 12tf figure can't be reached I hope they focus on the CPU.
Honestly if more games use temporal injection like Spider-Man does an 8tf GPU would probably be enough to run that at 60fps when paired with a proper CPU. I certainly wouldn't be complaining about that level of fidelity and performance.
NoctisVsStar
Member
Could you price those specs at 399.99?
Yeah, I was just reviewing the Eurogamer PS4 Pro pre-launch article, and there's a sidebar with a list of custom features.
The X1X is also awash with this kind of custom hardware featureset, so I fully expect a PS5 to deliver more than the basic numbers suggest.
I honestly have no idea what the pricing would be like in a few years from now after 7nm is in play and HBM2/GDDR6 production ramps up. I think it would absolutely be doable by 2020, maybe not 2019.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I really hate that we have this artificial price wall for consoles. No other tech is constrained like that.
pretty done
Member
All I'm gonna say is PS5 better be doing 4K on all games. Would be embarrassing for Sony if the One X was outperforming their next gen console.
BigEmil
Junior Member
Fuck 4k. 1080p 60fps all day.
Or 1080p 30fps but with VERY high visual fidelity.
More pixels will just compromise and hold back the game it's a waste we need next-gen leaps of gaming not pixels
That's not a concern.
I think reconstruction techniques/dynamic res will still be common next gen. Lots of performance benefits with minor visual tradeoffs.
bitbydeath
Member
Maybe, 16 doesn't sound like enough though.
Are you saying they need a Mode 7?
Blast Processing or bust.
bitbydeath
Member
What about 240fps through 120 fps? Do you think that is possible?
Keep in mind PSVR already does 120fps through 60fps.
Fredrik
Member
Only 2TF higher than XB1X, 2 years later? Seems too low imo, and you'd barely notice that jump which would be a hard sell if it's supposed to be a completely new gen starting from scratch with the installed base.
I'm thinking things will advance about 2TF per year, at least, so it'll be about 10TF by 2019 since XB1X is 6TF this year, and 12TF if they go with a 2020 launch. 14TF for XB2 in 2021.
2016 - PS4 Pro - 4TF
2017 - XB1X - 6TF
2019 - PS5 - 10TF
2021 - XB2 - 14TF
2022 - PS5 Pro - 16TF
Something like that. Unless they go up in price, then anything could happen.