bitbydeath
Gold Member
It'll be a half step in that the resolution will still be 4K, where as every other gen has made a resolution jump.
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Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
It'll be a half step in that the resolution will still be 4K, where as every other gen has made a resolution jump.
Yeah I don't know how many times Sony has to say "we believe in generations" for people to stop talking about this perennial half steps bollocks.
Bioshocker
Member
Pretty much what Sony's been saying.
Darkstorne
Member
I thought I'd disagree with him, but from the wording he's not wrong. He just isn't saying anything of interest either. He only defines it as a "half-step" because the Pro was already a half-step. So compared to the original PS4 it's still going to be a full new console gen.
His 240fps comment is weird, but it sounds like he's deliberately exaggerating and making up figures there, to point out that the 4k factor of the Pro is locked now, and it will be other aspects that we see pushed with the PS5, not the resolution. Though of course in reality the Pro rarely hits native 4k so there's still a big push to be made here. But otherwise he's not wrong that the marketing focus will likely be on the other elements of the machine, and that backwards compat is likely. 2019 is also a smart bet though I'm leaning closer towards 2020 in light of Scorpio (MS won't be replacing that beast as early as 2019, and we don't want to see multi plat games hobbled by Scorpio's ancient CPU) - that might be me WISHING for 2020 though rather than any sound business logic supporting 2020 over 2019.
His 240fps comment is weird, but it sounds like he's deliberately exaggerating and making up figures there, to point out that the 4k factor of the Pro is locked now, and it will be other aspects that we see pushed with the PS5, not the resolution. Though of course in reality the Pro rarely hits native 4k so there's still a big push to be made here. But otherwise he's not wrong that the marketing focus will likely be on the other elements of the machine, and that backwards compat is likely. 2019 is also a smart bet though I'm leaning closer towards 2020 in light of Scorpio (MS won't be replacing that beast as early as 2019, and we don't want to see multi plat games hobbled by Scorpio's ancient CPU) - that might be me WISHING for 2020 though rather than any sound business logic supporting 2020 over 2019.
PS3/Xbox 360 to PS4/Xbox One wasn't a half step but they also stayed in the HD range for both generations.
Tertullian
Member
So if we rephrase that, he's saying the PS5 will come out 6-6.5 years after the PS4, will be a full step ahead of the original PS4, and will be backwards compatible? Because that all sounds perfectly reasonable to me. 6.5 years is a perfectly standard console generation length (longer than most, actually). And backwards compatibility is much more likely now that the Playstation has boring-ass normal architecture rather than lol cell.
The real question is whether there's any chance the PS4 Pro (or even the original PS4?) will have mandatory forward compatibility.
The real question is whether there's any chance the PS4 Pro (or even the original PS4?) will have mandatory forward compatibility.
Obviously no matter how powerful PS5 is, there will always be games that target 30fps, and others that target 60fps, depending on any given developer's target goal, for any given game. -- This is true of PS4 / PS4 Pro, it was true of PS3, and of PS2, the original PlayStation, as well as the PSP and Vita. Not to mention every other platform for polygon graphics. Really, the only segment of gaming where 60fps (and even higher refresh rates) is a certainty, is with VR.
... what about Trump?
bitbydeath
Gold Member
PS3 was generally 720p though.
If there were a PS3 Pro it probably would have been 1080p, which would then make PS4 a half step.
Those are two very different concepts.
While there are still a lot of things that can be done visually, the biggest improvements newer hardware can bring, especially with a better CPU, lie in the realms of AI, crowd simulations, framerate options for developers and so on.
Half step from Pro.
Full step from base.
You aren't going to get an affordable 4-5x uplift from Pro in the next 2.5-3 years, and by that time the PS4 will be slowing sales-wise in the core developed markets, and users will be thirsty for a new unit.
Well that depends if they stick with x86-64..
Ugh..you play the Trump card?
Hmm, you already got briefed(Knowledge) on Next gen console??
I think than 2019 is confirmed kind off.
bitbydeath
Gold Member
They could aim for 2019 but much can happen between now and then.
CertifiedFP
Member
For now.
I'd imagine that as VR gets more popular, if it does, that there is inevitably going to be at least ONE Corporate Suit Jackass who understands nothing about VR at all who tells their devs working on a VR game to prioritize THE SHINIES no matter what resulting in some 30FPS abomination.
...Though IIRC at the very least didn't Sony make it a certification requirement that a PSVR title cannot ever dip below 45FPS for any reason for any amount of time? So I guess that nightmare-scenario I described at least won't happen any time soon. And of course such a title would get assblasted so hard on PC for having performance issues on a VR-capable PC. Though I wonder what the VR landscape will end up looking like on XB1X and what regulations Microsoft will put in there.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Mark Cerny already told everyone what he considers a generational leap (big increase in CPU, RAM, bandwidth, and GPU)...so no, PS5 won't be a half step.
At the same time, I think we need to be realistic about TFLOPS, in that case it may only be 2X Scorpio or 3X Pro (12 TFLOPS), which is still 9X Xbox One performance.
I think the gains in RAM and CPU will be enough to offset the 'half step' in GPU.
I'm hoping they hit at least 16 TFLOPS though
At the same time, I think we need to be realistic about TFLOPS, in that case it may only be 2X Scorpio or 3X Pro (12 TFLOPS), which is still 9X Xbox One performance.
I think the gains in RAM and CPU will be enough to offset the 'half step' in GPU.
I'm hoping they hit at least 16 TFLOPS though
I think Sony will wait for 2020, if they are concerned with the Pricing, cause the New chip will be comparably expensive in 2019.
Stilton Disco
Member
Why so many talking heads are still so willing to believe Microsoft drive the direction the games industry is heading in I do not know.
D
Deleted member 465307
Unconfirmed Member
...I kind of agree with him.
- I'm expecting the PS5 somewhere between 2019 and 2021 (personally leaning towards 2020 if 7nm fabrication is ready).
- If we ballpark PS4 Pro as doubling the graphical power of PS4, I think we'll see PS5 make a similar relative jump compared to PS4 Pro (maybe 3x the power at most, so 8-12 teraflops). Really depends on where the tech is at in the next 1-2 years. The results of AMD's Navi could be a major determining factor.
- I'm guessing the default target resolution will move from 1080p to 4k but that we'll still see some of the more ambitious games use checkerboarding and dynamic resolutions to really wow people with the graphics at the cost of IQ.
- The prevalence of remasters could depend on how backwards compatibility is handled, but I'm guessing next-gen's remasters' main selling point will be native 4K, maybe 60fps.
- I expect the most noticeable jump will be in the CPU power.
SolarMystic
Member
The pro and xox will prolong the Gen 1 year at most. These consoles are supremely underpowered and they won't sell nearly as much as the base models.
I think your overestimating the importance of this mid gen refresh.
You need to better manage your expectations.
Allonym
There should be more tampons in gaming
What I said aren't two completely different concepts though. There are games that couldn't have been done on previous generations of hardware whether you're talking about visuals or world density, detail or complexity of the ai. I'd say that you can have an affordable console within the next 2-2.5 years that's a full step up from the Pro and honestly that's what the PS5 should be judged against. I think the Scorpio is a half step up from the Pro so the PS5 should be a half step above the Scorpio, at least. $429 price point should be enough to lure in casuals and hardcore gamers. I'm sure it'll be using parts that are available now or within the next year at the latest so I don't think it's going to be this machine that's using super new and exotic parts that'll hike up the price.
I don't mind that. I still don't have a 4k TV and I doubt if most people do, so going beyond 4k isn't a requirement for me. I'm totally fine with it remaining there.
you are teasing like crazy!!
12TF it is than?? Right?? I think they are going with the 399 price point again.
Why people keep so wrapped up in unrealistic stuff i'll never get. Your only disappointing yourself if you hope for 16tflops or even 12. Even if AMD had a single GPU at that time that wast 16tflops, it most def would be the highest of the high end in the desktop space, with a very high TDP and cost, and certainly not something anyone is putting in a console.
PS5 will have exclusive titles that can push its hardware to the limit. That's more than anyone can say for Pro or XB1X, and that makes all the difference regardless of what components are actually in the thing.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
16 -> 7nm = 2.28X transistor count
6 TFLOPS X 2.28 = 13.68 TFLOPS.
Factoring in other efficiency/architecture gains and 15-16 isn't that unrealistic imo.
At a minimum I don't see Sony going below 12. I bet they want to target 8X base PS4 for TFLOPS which is right around 15.
bitbydeath
Gold Member
Yeah, I'd imagine they'd have their sights set on delivering a high quality VR experience and seek out the appropriate hardware to deliver that.
If they can get in first it will likely return more value as opposed to waiting for the same hardware to drop in price. (All speculation of course)
michaelius
Banned
You realise than nm in process node name are mostly marketing ?
Your math doesn't tell anywhere near the whole story in regards to what is or isn't possible.
You need to manage your expectations better.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Given all Mark Cerny has discussed, my expectations are managed appropriately. I don't expect a 2019 release.
So please tell me where I'm going wrong, I think my math is reasonable.
Is that spoken as someone in the know or someone who is better at predicting?
I think 12TF is too high for 2019, but what about around 10TF~?
Sony mandate locked 60FPS and use reprojection to simulate 120 at that rate. They've stated 90 or higher is preferable. Your scenario isn't going to happen, VR simply doesn't work at all under 60fps.
I'm sorry, they are not.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Why?
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Not it is not possible. They won't go next gen until they can fix that flaw.
So a 10-12TF machine, which is pretty much where the math comes out if you assign the same level of uplift from PS3 > PS4 or PS4 Base > Pro.
4K TVs will be in the majority by 2020 in the US, and represent about 40% of installed TVs in the EU. They've pretty much all dropped into the sub-1000 currency unit range for a 49-55", and they're pretty much the only sets available to buy at major retailers - certainly they're the majority of new models.
ShirAhava
Plays with kids toys, in the adult gaming world
These "2020" people are weird thats way too late...ps4 and ps4 are weak as hell...xbox one x is weak too
16tflop gpus are coming out very soon consoles with 8 to 12 tflops of power in two years wouldn't be odd to see.
Base model ps4 and xbox one being supported in 2020 would be a nightmare
16tflop gpus are coming out very soon consoles with 8 to 12 tflops of power in two years wouldn't be odd to see.
Base model ps4 and xbox one being supported in 2020 would be a nightmare
cookie-monster
Member
bullshit.
whenever this console launches, it will still just be an APU and PCs will still run rings around it.
ryzen is not orders of magnitude better.
Monkeyball
Banned
I hope next gen all games have a 1080/60 mode.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Sony never said no PS4 backwards compatibility. I would love to see where some people are getting this nonsense from. I think the closest thing they said to that effect is that they would not let maintaining backwards compatibility constrain their ability to push forward the next generation. I see no technical innovations that would prevent PS5 from being BC with PS4 games.
bitbydeath
Gold Member
It's overkill and not worth the money for a jump within the same resolution. Keep in mind PS4 is just 1.84TF and can produce amazing visuals. Eg Horizon ZD.
PS4 Pro is 4.2TF which is a massive jump but that's mostly all going towards getting the games to run in or near 4K.
PS4 Pro -> PS5 obviously won't need that as it is already (almost) there resolution wise so it requires fewer TFLOPS to provide a nextgen experience.
The focus will be on the CPU so they don't get left behind in VR.
Full step from PS4, half step from PS4 Pro. I expect the same.
2013: PS4
2016: PS4 Pro
2019: PS5
Makes sense. I mean it can't really be a full step from Pro, that would be insanely expensive just after three years.
People believe Sony will continue the no BC because they have been defending it in every time they get the chance, but that's to be expected when your direct competitor has a feature you don't.
I actually believe the PS5 will really support BC with PS4, I hope they learned that changing completely the HW architecture with something Cell like is just nonsense... they should just power up what they have.
Better for developers, better for them in terms of research cost, better for us all probably.
EDIT:
And if they are smart enough they should keep also PSVR compatible, it will cost less so people will jump in, and then they can release PSVR2 some years later with a new and better technology, and people that bought PSVR and liked it, will be more interested in buying the new version. Also because to buy a PS5 plus a PSVR2 in the same period would be way too much expensive.
Better for developers, better for them in terms of research cost, better for us all probably.
EDIT:
And if they are smart enough they should keep also PSVR compatible, it will cost less so people will jump in, and then they can release PSVR2 some years later with a new and better technology, and people that bought PSVR and liked it, will be more interested in buying the new version. Also because to buy a PS5 plus a PSVR2 in the same period would be way too much expensive.