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Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
DerZuhälter
Member
I've been seeing PS4pro discounted to 300 and less. PS4 Slim to 180 and less. I don't think Sony is willing to miss out on the magical price point of 399 for too long.
How much is PS4pro going to be christmas 2018? 200? When are you going to introduce the next hardware? 2019 Black Friday?
This is too long of a gap. Sony will introduce new hardware before 2019. I am absolutely certain of that. It might be a new VR headset model, a handheld or a console. But something will be sold for 399 in 2018 by Sony.
If PS5 is fully BC it doesn't even have to have a software library when introduced in 2018.
How much is PS4pro going to be christmas 2018? 200? When are you going to introduce the next hardware? 2019 Black Friday?
This is too long of a gap. Sony will introduce new hardware before 2019. I am absolutely certain of that. It might be a new VR headset model, a handheld or a console. But something will be sold for 399 in 2018 by Sony.
If PS5 is fully BC it doesn't even have to have a software library when introduced in 2018.
DerZuhälter;242819121 said:
that's the main thing i am taking from this whole conversation , they don't want to mess up with the price point again. It will be around 2019 and 399$ and will featue whatever tech available at that point of time and price.
Of course it will have some Hardware specific features as well.
Jonneh3003
Banned
Man we got some hostile reactions to Pachter.. it would be very funny if this turned out to be true.
I know those interviews aren't actually his real "work", but he is so bad at predicting stuff.
PS5 most probably won't come out in 2019 and even more certainly it won't be half step. Because PS5 will likely support 4K as a target, it would have to be very powerful so they can show an actual step up in visuals and not just res, diminishing returns is a bitch and if PS5's games trailers on Youtube will look like PS4 games only running at 4K no one would be fucking impressed by it, especially since most people will look at those trailers on their 1080P monitors, no one would notice how those games are looking any better than PS4's and Pro's games.
4K is already a huge resource drain (undeservedly, I prefer that they would target 4K CB and leave more resources for actual graphics and gameplay, I don't believe that the true 4K effect over CB is worth all the extra resources), they know that they need a really beefy rig over the Pro to impress people, it's already going to be harder with diminishing returns in the first place, so a half step PS5 that supports true 4K is going to make it impossible.
PS5 most probably won't come out in 2019 and even more certainly it won't be half step. Because PS5 will likely support 4K as a target, it would have to be very powerful so they can show an actual step up in visuals and not just res, diminishing returns is a bitch and if PS5's games trailers on Youtube will look like PS4 games only running at 4K no one would be fucking impressed by it, especially since most people will look at those trailers on their 1080P monitors, no one would notice how those games are looking any better than PS4's and Pro's games.
4K is already a huge resource drain (undeservedly, I prefer that they would target 4K CB and leave more resources for actual graphics and gameplay, I don't believe that the true 4K effect over CB is worth all the extra resources), they know that they need a really beefy rig over the Pro to impress people, it's already going to be harder with diminishing returns in the first place, so a half step PS5 that supports true 4K is going to make it impossible.
Fredrik
Member
But why would PS5 have to be out in 2019?
The only reason we're talking about that now is because XB1X beats Pro in power, which happened because Pro was rushed out in 2016.
If Pro came out this year instead, more powerful than XB1X, then they could easily wait until 2021 with PS5 and give it a nice power boost to 14TF or something like that. Rushing out PS5 in 2019 will only put them in a similar situation since MS will yet again be out later with a more powerful box.
Yes I know that power alone doesn't mean much but I know that lots of people jumped from 360/XB1 to PS4 simply because PS4 got all the definitive version of multiplats, as did I.
So I think it would be unfortunate (for Sony) if MS got the power lead with XB1X until 2019 when PS5 arrives only to take it back again a year later with XB2. We would hear lots of "Nah I'll wait for the next Xbox instead to get the definitive versions".
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
In the flip side you do not wait until your current console is completely dead to introduce the successor, you still want it to be popular and selling well and having good mindshare when you introduce the successor console. Waiting for Wii sales to drop off massively and some of the users to flee to smartphones before releasing Wii U helped that console to fail.
SuperEpicMan
Banned
I think we will get:
Late 2019 Release.
Full BC with PS4 titles.
$399 Price.
In terms of power it is hard to say, probably will be as much as they can get in at a $399 price point.
I think the above are pretty much a lock (outside of it maybe being released in 2020). The things I am more curious about is how will the console and games be marketed, and will there be "PS5" games. I think we could see the PS4 and Pro being "forward compatible" where they can play current gen games, but at a lower performance and graphics or something. Basically, if Sony are adopting a release pattern similar to iPhones, then maybe they will also continue to support the PS4 consoles after the PS5 release.
Late 2019 Release.
Full BC with PS4 titles.
$399 Price.
In terms of power it is hard to say, probably will be as much as they can get in at a $399 price point.
I think the above are pretty much a lock (outside of it maybe being released in 2020). The things I am more curious about is how will the console and games be marketed, and will there be "PS5" games. I think we could see the PS4 and Pro being "forward compatible" where they can play current gen games, but at a lower performance and graphics or something. Basically, if Sony are adopting a release pattern similar to iPhones, then maybe they will also continue to support the PS4 consoles after the PS5 release.
I believe more in "who comes first wins". Why wait 1 more year to have a, probably, powerful console, more expensive (we can expect the first discounts on the PS5), less games....
Sure there will be people that will wait, but the price tag is always the real deal.
1) He doesn't call PS5 a half step - only a half step from pro, so a full step from PS4
2) Saying it'll play PS pro games just means it has BC which is (hopefully) a no-brainer if they stay on x86 architecture
Nothing in this is remotely controversial, insightful or that interesting
2) Saying it'll play PS pro games just means it has BC which is (hopefully) a no-brainer if they stay on x86 architecture
Nothing in this is remotely controversial, insightful or that interesting
BluenoseGames
Member
I'd say 2020 or 2021.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
This is not a reaction move, but simple business. The market is now not going for 7-8 years between generations and it is a bad practice to wait until your console is not a hot item anymore before announcing its successor. What the competition does overall matters (if MS were to wait until 2022 before releasing a new console would change things perhaps), but it is not the main driver of their strategy.
you're also selling to quite different audiences too - the people buying into PS4 at $199 six years after launch are not the same audience you're trying to persuade to buy a $399 PS5
They already clarified that they are not, they are continuing with the traditional generations, there will probably be a lot of cross gen games at the beginning (among PS5 only games) just like in most gens but at a certain point there will be PS5 only games coming out just like how now 99% of PS4's games that are coming out are only running on PS4.
To be honest I'm totally content with the PS4 lifecycle playing out abit longer, everything I'm playing is great and i just don't see how more power is going to make anything much better, i remember during other lifecycles were i felt like they dragged and was eagerly awaiting the next step. This is the first time I've been this content with current gen, some of my favourite games this time around haven't been the most graphically impressive but rather have employed stylised visuals w/ great art direction or have had great gameplay systems (See Persona 5/Overwatch/Nier)
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Nope. 3rd parties might do that, but not Sony first party. I expect the typical cross-gen multiplat releases for 1 or 2 years. There is no way Sony is going to hamstring their devs by forcing them to design games around base PS4 specs. New generation means games developed solely for that platform. They have been quite clear that they still believe in generations. Microsoft MAY be going for a generation-less approach, but it won't be industry wide.
The Praiseworthy
Member
Not going to happen before Holidays 2020 at earliest.
NingenJanai
Member
I doubt it will be a half step, specially since Microsoft are pushing Xbox One X as a powerhouse.
But it will probably be the same architecture so hopefully it will have PS4 BC.
But it will probably be the same architecture so hopefully it will have PS4 BC.
StereoVsn
Member
This sounds reasonable actually. I can't also see PS5 not being compatible with PS4 games. So a hypothetical PS5 in late 2019, coming in 3 years after PS4 Pro and Xbone 2 in 2020. 2TF per year increases on GPU, 7nm process, Zen CPU, ~16-20GB of RAM, all sound reasonable.
I do think the price may be higher then $399, judging by Xbone X cost but we may be pleasantly surprised. Also, you can bet that cross-gen games will be here for the foreseeable future from 3rd parties as publishers will be loath to lose the large install base of PS4/Xbone.
Edit: Oh yeah, I am sure 1st/2nd party games will be released that will only work with PS5 (and later on Xbone 2) although some might be PS4 Pro/Xbone X compatible.
Edit 2: If Sony does not have backward compatibility with PS4 games on PS5, I am sticking to PCs.
Uh no. Even before Pro, and during the run-in to launch, some of us we're discussing launch windows for the PS5, based around prior hen length, comments made by Cerny and Sony execs about last gen being too long - back in 2013 some people were talking about a 5 year gen after the hardware reveals with the Jags as CPUs.
Sony have their own roadmap, and its one that MS haven't influenced this gen and the X1X isn't going to change that.
Bitch Pudding
Member
DerZuhälter;242819121 said:
Whatever Sony introduces in 2018, it won't be a new VR set or a PS5. Because a next-gen VR set basically needs the powa of PS5 anyhow.
2019 is right in their 3 year cycle, and with new tech available from AMD and memory providers they can go for a significant increase in power, compared to even XBOX One X.
That said, as we discussed in another PS5 thread already, people should not expect a 20TF / 128GB RAM monster for 399 bucks - neither in 2019 or 2020...
autoduelist
Member
I know the gen started in 2013. We're in year 4. Historically, most systems are sold in years 3-5 - specifically, price drops 1 and 2 are generally very effective. PS4 is still selling fast, and there is no reason to shift gens anytime soon. Not only does Sony want all those mid and long tail buyers, they -need- them.
I realize that buying into a gen early makes it feel 'long' [I bought a PS4 day 1], but while early adopters are important at establishing a system, they are actually a pretty small percentage of buyers.
And those mid to late buyers aren't trying to buy an 'old' out of date system. They want to buy a system that plays all the newest games for at least 2-4 years.
bitbydeath
Gold Member
Eh, if you think X1X is a powerhouse then you'll be easily pleased nextgen
Elfotografoalocado
Banned
So if it comes out in 2019, 8TF GPU, 4 cores Ryzen and 12GB RAM?
With Xbox One X being $499 in November 2017, I don't see how PS5 can be cheap and a huge gap.
With Xbox One X being $499 in November 2017, I don't see how PS5 can be cheap and a huge gap.
freshVeggie
Member
Between 810tflops, more adequate CPU but still nothing outwordly, 240fps via interpolation for VR and a late 2019 does sound reasonable alright.
Freesync gonna be in likely but not expecting much beyond 60fps in nonVR gaming.
Games locked to 30fps will always be a thing. Some here are misreading the 240fps.
PS4 BC could be done. Doubt radical change in hardware ala PS3PS4 will occur, so it's about what Sony thinks how important BC is. Nice feature but not critical imo, so BC might or might not happen.
Price again 399. They noticed it's a sweetspot for success.
Freesync gonna be in likely but not expecting much beyond 60fps in nonVR gaming.
Games locked to 30fps will always be a thing. Some here are misreading the 240fps.
PS4 BC could be done. Doubt radical change in hardware ala PS3PS4 will occur, so it's about what Sony thinks how important BC is. Nice feature but not critical imo, so BC might or might not happen.
Price again 399. They noticed it's a sweetspot for success.
Nightengale
Member
Don't think of this from a "X > Pro" in power, so Pro/PS5 is/will be rushed logic.
Think of this from the perspective of financials, length of previous console generation, and audience ability to spend/invest in new products.
1. PS3 gen was 'too long' to many. That was a 7-year gen. If PS5 comes out in 2019, it'd be a 6-year gen.
2. XB1/PS4 gen was exemplified by extremely strong early adopter trend, where a huge chunk of sales came from core gamers who pick up consoles at a faster pace. This also means that product fatigue risk coming sooner.
3. The success of PS4 means there is financial considerations of maintaining momentum, and realistically speaking PS4 will see minor slowdowns in 2018/19, which means if there is a time to introduce a new stimulus to their business, 2019 is the best time for it.
4. Because "generations" are not defined by technological leaps, but by what hardware manufacturers feel is the right balance of price/performance ratio where the new product is more appealing than the old product that customers will be willing to pay a full-price for that product.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
PS4 will not stop receiving games or selling just because they announce PS5 and launch it. The buyers looking into a $149-199 PS4 deal are not the Year 1 adopters of a $399 successor. You do not want to wait until a product is considered obsolete and dead on the market before announcing a successor... it is commercial suicide for CE products.
Fredrik
Member
Maybe, but the core gamer word of mouth won't be as positive. PS3 hype and "it's more like Xbox 1.5" definitely hurt the Xbox 360 launch. PS2 hype hurt the Dreamcast launch.
MS got lucky last gen since PS3 didn't deliver and had a weaker GPU and was trickier for devs, if PS3 would've been more powerful and easier to code it would've been a slaughter.
I think the Pro launch has been hurt by XB1X in a similar way, "wait another year and get true 4K and the definitive versions on all multiplats for the rest of the generation" has been a problem for Sony when launching Pro.
If PS5 would come out next year it wouldn't be a problem, to battle XB1X I mean. But a 2019 or 2020 launch is simply too far away and they've just launched the Pro like half a year ago so they can't talk about PS5 yet or it'll hurt the sales of PS4/Pro. It's really not the best scenario.
Pasedo
Member
Ive suspected for a while that seeing people are happy to upgrade their smartphones every 2 years why cant it work for consoles. In a couple of years down the track you watch Gamestop putting consoles on 2 year plans so you can upgrade to the next half step machine with upgraded experiences.
Fredrik
Member
Considering how the talk goes in PC vs console discussions I doubt that it would be accepted by console gamers. Maybe if we have full forward and backwards compatibility but people around here don't seem to like that either if it holds back the newest gen.
Nightengale
Member
BC does not hold back new gen.
Full forward compatibility does not exist in PC or mobile. Games on both platforms have minimum specs, and there are games that simply cannot be played on hardware that is not sufficiently powerful.
The same will be true for the next Xbox/PS5. At a certain point, games will target those platforms as the minimum spec once there are the install base to justify it.
GlamFM
Banned
Fredrik
Member
I was thinking about forward compatibility regarding holding back, like today with Pro and X and no exclusives.
But BC can definitely hold back the new generation if they have to choose a specific CPU/GPU to not break BC.
If HDMI 2.1 VRR is there to catch the hiccups, why not target 30fps unlocked rather than 60fps with drops? Prettier graphics and VRR lets you have unlocked framerate and benefit from it.
(not saying they should, but they probably will - can't see 60fps suddenly being a thing, especially if the increase in performance is -relatively- small compared to previous generations)
What the fuck Sony? did they announce anything?
I'm most certain PS5 will support PS4 BC, it would be incredibly stupid and dangerous to their brand if it won't and they know it, people today are expecting their library to always move forward with them, it's a standard and they won't fuck with it.
Right, but a 15 TF, 64GB RAM system in late 2020 (for NA, EU) seems reasonable.
Japan and other countries wouldn't see it until early 2021.
SolarMystic
Member
Holiday 2019 is still over 2 years away, 2020 even longer. By then the Gen will have been current for 6-7 years. The PS3 itself was current for 7 years in what was by all accounts an unusually long gen. Having the same target isn't unreasonable IMO.
Nightengale
Member
What does a half-step console even mean? Insufficient power leap from the base model? The fact that its true potential is held back by not being allowed to be developed exclusively, but merely a console to play prettier/higher-res versions of PS4/XB1 games?
Whatever PS5 will be; if it's $399 in 2019, it will definitely be a big leap from the PS4, and the fact that PS5 will be the new target platform means games won't be held back. ( for the first two years as multiplat devs will do cross-gen )
But in terms of power leap? Realistically PS5 ( in 2019 ) will not be a huge leap over Pro, because 3-years isn't enough for a huge leap in processing power at the same price point.
GlamFM
Banned
I don't think any of this is true at all.
MS will be doing very well to match Pro's WW sales in the first 6 months of the X1X, the two consoles were conceived with similar but differently ordered priorities.
Early PS5 adopters will be core PS owners who've been with the platform for 20+ years in many cases. It'll be drawn from the audience groups that bought Pros & PSVR.
Sony have mentioned the PS5 a handful of times, and the only confirmation we have it's even in design is from Layden, to an enthusiast website. The idea that it's going to impact PS4 sales is a stretch.
As many of us have said:
PS meeting Jan 2019
E3 box & price reveal
November 2019 launch
PhantomZhu
Banned
Its is as I feared, the age of traditional generational leaps is over.
truely this is the bad dimension
truely this is the bad dimension