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Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
So then, PS5 in Fall 2020 it is, and will be a true generational leap from PS4 and even PS4 Pro.
The only thing Pachter can be right about is backwards compatibility with PS4.
Edit:
As for 240 frames per second, Sony has already "been there, done that" with a Gran Turismo 5 demo running on four PlayStation3s back in 2008.
The GT5 demo was capable of doing 1080p at 240fps, on a FED (Field Emissions Display) screen, or alternatively, native 4K / 2160p at 60fps.
https://www.geek.com/games/gran-turismo-5-shown-off-at-240-fps-and-in-2160p-resolution-628782/
http://kotaku.com/5093592/gran-turismo-5-prologue-running-at-240-fps--3840x2160-resolution
http://gizmodo.com/5094334/ps3-tech-demo-runs-gran-turismo-5-in-2160p-or-240-fps
https://www.slashgear.com/fed-display-runs-gran-turismo-5-at-240fps-with-no-motion-blur-2023546/
http://www.sonyinsider.com/2008/11/19/sony-shows-off-gran-turismo-5-at-240fps-on-a-fed-display/
https://web.archive.org/web/20090107034158/http://www.gran-turismo.com/en/sp/d2788.html
The only thing Pachter can be right about is backwards compatibility with PS4.
Edit:
As for 240 frames per second, Sony has already "been there, done that" with a Gran Turismo 5 demo running on four PlayStation3s back in 2008.
The GT5 demo was capable of doing 1080p at 240fps, on a FED (Field Emissions Display) screen, or alternatively, native 4K / 2160p at 60fps.
https://www.geek.com/games/gran-turismo-5-shown-off-at-240-fps-and-in-2160p-resolution-628782/
http://kotaku.com/5093592/gran-turismo-5-prologue-running-at-240-fps--3840x2160-resolution
http://gizmodo.com/5094334/ps3-tech-demo-runs-gran-turismo-5-in-2160p-or-240-fps
https://www.slashgear.com/fed-display-runs-gran-turismo-5-at-240fps-with-no-motion-blur-2023546/
http://www.sonyinsider.com/2008/11/19/sony-shows-off-gran-turismo-5-at-240fps-on-a-fed-display/
https://web.archive.org/web/20090107034158/http://www.gran-turismo.com/en/sp/d2788.html
You have no idea how this stuff works
Barkley's Justice
Member
Of course it won't be 2018.
... Yes, that is why he/she asked...
Head.spawn
Junior Member
Take into consideration, Xbox One X needed to price itself at $499 to get the tech they wanted out there and that is at cost.. how much are we expecting an Xbox One X to run them in 2018 and 2019? I feel like that was MS's intention to push something out of the typical price range so that a device coming out the following year or the year after that would need to punch harder to compete in the typical price range ($399) to look like a decent jump.
ErasureAcer
Banned
PSVision in 2020.
Sony, give me a $1,000 for my title.
Sony, give me a $1,000 for my title.
So then, PS5 in Fall 2020 it is, and will be a true generational leap from PS4 and even PS4 Pro.
The only thing Pachter can be right about is backwards compatibility with PS4.
Edit:
As for 240 frames per second, Sony has already "been there, done that" with a Gran Turismo 5 demo running on four PlayStation3s back in 2008.
https://www.geek.com/games/gran-turismo-5-shown-off-at-240-fps-and-in-2160p-resolution-628782/
http://kotaku.com/5093592/gran-turismo-5-prologue-running-at-240-fps--3840x2160-resolution
http://gizmodo.com/5094334/ps3-tech-demo-runs-gran-turismo-5-in-2160p-or-240-fps
https://www.slashgear.com/fed-display-runs-gran-turismo-5-at-240fps-with-no-motion-blur-2023546/
The demo was capable of doing 1080p at 240fps, or alternatively, native 4K / 2160p at 60fps.
That's pretty much like PS3's in quad sli, but instead of just 4 gpus together its the all 4 systems working together right?
Well, we will never have 240 fps games, so asking when we would be able to have hardware that supports it doesn't really make sense.
dano1
A Sheep
Basically, yes, to put it very simply -- It's the easiest way for me to understand it.
And it will be named something other than PS5.
Head.spawn
Junior Member
He did say 2020 before though.
If he says 2021 in a few more months I wouldn't be totally surprised.
I mean, really, 2019 has been what I've been thinking for awhile. You release a mid-gen upgrade 3 years in, and then the next console doesn't come out for... 4/5 more years? That doesn't make sense. If you're planning 2020 or later, you wait an extra year for your mid-gen upgrade.
Hmm
Hmm
not gonna happen. XB1X doesnt even do 4K for all titles. When we're talking about next gen titles, expecting 4K in all scenarios makes no sense, i expect plenty of devs to skimp on resolution.
Hehe, a 20 TeraFlop PS5 would be a "half-step" to Tim Sweeney's target 40 TFLOPs for photorealistic graphics combined with fully dynamic environments and characters.
It's all good
It's all good
Because most other electronic goods - brown, white, mobile devices - are frequently purchased on credit or the true cost of the item is obscured by a hire contract.
If yo look at price bands for TVs, for example, while there isn't a price wall there is most definitely a top line price between low-medium & high volume sales. Console makers don't have the luxury of being able to scale their products ranges the way you can a TV, so initial price-point weighs heavier plus the long-term success of s console is currently mole toy reliant on software, which will only be developed if audience projections make the investment worthwhile.
Tl:dr - consoles have different pressures other CE items don't have, making initial price point far weightier.
cookie-monster
Member
there is no mystery anymore surely. There is no quantum leap in x86-64 or GPU technology on any roadmap.
gone are the days when Sony would turn up with an exotic new processor.
the only question is when, and that will dictate the size of the leap.
the fact that Sony released the ps4 pro has already ensured that a ps5 released on normal timescales will be a half step.
gone are the days when Sony would turn up with an exotic new processor.
the only question is when, and that will dictate the size of the leap.
the fact that Sony released the ps4 pro has already ensured that a ps5 released on normal timescales will be a half step.
Mr. Pointy
Member
It'll be like PS4 Pro, where the OS may have spare pool of RAM to store apps. Probably looking at 16GB GDDR5X or HBM, and 2-4GB of DDR4.
Type_Raver
Member
I think this is the new cyclic pattern going forward. Similar to smart phones, but with a little more time between revisions, something like every 3yrs were we see a half step forward, rather than 6 year for a full step next gen console. Effectively, it will probably be the same power output at the same cost, but the only added thing is the half step forward console.
Seems to be a more progressive way, taking advantage of hardware SoC refinements/optimisations, keeping existing technology relevant for partners (AMD/Nvidia) and developers remain enthusiastic & engaged, and hopefully ensuring better and seamless backward compatibility meaning deeper libraries.
Seems to be a more progressive way, taking advantage of hardware SoC refinements/optimisations, keeping existing technology relevant for partners (AMD/Nvidia) and developers remain enthusiastic & engaged, and hopefully ensuring better and seamless backward compatibility meaning deeper libraries.
There doesn't need to be another quantum leap in x86-64 CPU technology because for PS5, going from Jaguar in PS4 to any given generation / version of Zen in PS5 will be a quantum leap, in itself.
Lilalaunebaer
Member
2 half steps make a full step.
2019 can see that. If it was next year i´d think we would have heard some leaks already. At least something. Anyway, we just have to look at amd and see what they have coming up tech wise, since MS and Sony don´t just make new processors specifically for their consoles. They just use customized already existing tech. We´ll see when we can have like a 10tf box or whatever for ~400 bucks.
2019 can see that. If it was next year i´d think we would have heard some leaks already. At least something. Anyway, we just have to look at amd and see what they have coming up tech wise, since MS and Sony don´t just make new processors specifically for their consoles. They just use customized already existing tech. We´ll see when we can have like a 10tf box or whatever for ~400 bucks.
Allonym
There should be more tampons in gaming
Who would buy a PS5 that's marginally better than a PS4 Pro though? I think that'd be stupid of Sony. I want to see games that couldn't have been done on this generation of hardware, just like how we have games that are far beyond PS3 levels of graphical achievement. I hope he's wrong.
Sad Affleck
Member
2019 sounds plausible. A half step from PS4 Pro would be a good upgrade from base PS4 so that is likely as well. 240 fps is probably for VR so yeah, could be. PS4 backwards compatibility is a given imo.
...Well damn. A reasonable and logical prediction by Pachter. I thought I'd never see the day.
...Well damn. A reasonable and logical prediction by Pachter. I thought I'd never see the day.
No one. Nor would anyone try to sell that.
SebastianM
Member
it's 2020 for sure, new gen means new CPU, I hope Sony and MS don't skimp on it next time around.
Allonym
There should be more tampons in gaming
That's the impression that I got with the half step nonsense. I don't think PS5 will operate at normal time tables considering PS4 is still selling like crazy, has a ton of big name, AAA games in the pipeline and Pro was released not too long ago. There's too many things in place that give the idea that Pachter is wrong. Hopefully Sony realizes this and doesn't rush a PS5 to the market in response to Scorpio or anything else.
GameAddict411
Member
Now imagine if they put in a 10 tflops gpu with the same Jaguar cores. It's highly possible, but it would be so disappointing.
geordiemp
Member
So do I, but it will be 4K60 with Ryzen and maybe 8 -12 TF in late 2019.
BC with Ps4.
Nah.
Monkeyball
Banned
I wonder how many people lost all their money by listening to Pachter.
I was also going to say, the first gen Zen (RyZen) 52% increase in IPC (instructions per cycle) is only beyond the previous generation of high-end AMD CPU architecture ( Excavator, which was the final upgrade of the Bulldozer platform). However, Jaguar to Zen should be much more than 52% (right?) nevermind what Zen 2 and Zen 3 bring to the table.
Lets play it safe and assume PS5 would use a Zen 2 based CPU in 2019. If it ends up with Zen 3 (and launches in 2020) even better, but my point is, Jaguar to Zen alone should be a massive improvement, even IF the core count (8) and clockspeed (1.6 ~ 2.1 GHz in PS4/Pro) stayed the same.
Lets play it safe and assume PS5 would use a Zen 2 based CPU in 2019. If it ends up with Zen 3 (and launches in 2020) even better, but my point is, Jaguar to Zen alone should be a massive improvement, even IF the core count (8) and clockspeed (1.6 ~ 2.1 GHz in PS4/Pro) stayed the same.
LOL. what did I just watch.
That is not what he meant. He meant that even if it does, the real question would be if it was bc with PS4 (Pro).
Fredrik
Member
I doubt that PS5 was in Microsoft's minds when making XB1X, seems difficult to plan that far ahead since they've probably worked on it for years.
I have no idea what triggered Pro and X tbh, people say that they're just answers to the 4K revolution, but I don't know. To me it seems strange that Sony thought it was so important to be out in 2016 that they had to deal with fake 4K and forgot UHD playback.
I'm thinking that Sony clearly rushed it and MS was just slow and maybe that the unknown Nintendo console triggered them both. No? At the time they started with the upgrades they had no idea that Nintendo would make a portable/hybrid.
Anyhow, I'm sure XB2 is already planned out and will be the answer to PS5. Only question is if they'll wait another 4 years or if they'll go with a 3 year gap like Sony to better counter PS5?
I see this put forward a lot, the idea that Pachter just plays the clown for the media but is really some astute analyst in the background.
I don't think it's actually the case at all l. I mean, I know picking stocks is a crapshoot at the best of times, but I don't think he's particularly great at it.
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/michael-pachter
Nightengale
Member
If Patcher is right, then it makes perfect sense that Pro had to be out last year and not this year.
If PS4 Pro is this year instead, that means the gap between Pro and PS5 is two years, whereas the gap between PS4 and Pro is four years.
Hidden One
Member
I doubt it