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[Shadowhelper]

Weird thing about Scotland is how it's 96% white despite being part of the UK with the commonwealth and the EU. People have avoided going there

I think Scotland has to somehow turn the economy around.



Scotland is a separate country merely part of a Union. It isn't a region like Catalonia.

I've even read Spain officials say we'd have to explain to others about Scotland as they also acknowledge it's different for Scotland.

No, not really. The UK is a country. Made up of many other countries. It's not that different at all, actually. Certainly the same idea, absolutely. Spain is on record as saying they would not be amenable to allowing an independent scotland to join.

In fact, EU is so unenthused about the idea of Scotland joining the EU, every single thing they have said is just pouring cold water about Scotland joining. If they do join, it will take a long time, and they won't get any special deals. They will have to use the EU, and will not get the concessions the UK has.

They said it literally today.

Minor said the commission's position on Scottish membership had not changed since the independence referendum in 2014, when it repeatedly said Scotland could not automatically take up separate membership just because it was part of an existing member state.

”The position in Scotland hasn't changed," Minor said. There is a clear process for any applicant country under article 49 of the European treaties. ”That would also apply to Scotland. If Scotland became an independent country I think article 49 is the normal starting point," she said.

Minor, who is the commission's spokeswoman in the UK, also implied that timing could also be an issue since Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the commission, had said he did not want to see any more enlargement of the EU beyond its current 28 members during his term of office.

Doesn't seem like the EU really cares to have Scotland join, and they would have to join the Euro Zone and not have any special concessions. Unless you are a massive net exporter, the Euro Zone is an objectively horrible economy to be a part of. So Scotland is fucked either way. They cannot keep the current UK EU deal, nor even join anytime soon, or stay in a diminished UK.

The EU sure doesn't seem to care one bit about Scotland, and Spain has said many times they will not allow them to join the EU, they're not the only country opposed to Scotland joining.

 

[Funky Papa]

The EU sure doesn't seem to care one bit about Scotland, and Spain has said many times they will not allow them to join the EU, they're not the only country opposed to Scotland joining.

This is false.

You keep repeating falsehoods.

 

[Vivalaraza]

They aren't getting another referendum anytime soon.

 

[DavidDesu]

The difference people seem to keep forgetting is that the UK does actually hold a lot of power in the EU. It's funny to see people moaning about having no clout yet I remember seeing a statement that something like 80-90% of new EU laws were voted for by the UK anyway. The UK had power in the EU to shape it. Maybe not as much power as it wanted but it still had power.

Scotland in the UK union however is completely and utterly shut down. At every turn. The power the devolved Scottish parliament has is ultimately not that great, we have what seems like almost perpetual Tory dominance over a country which simply votes entirely differently and is far more socialist in it's leaning (and yes it is a country in a supposed union of equal nations, lol).

Ergo we would still have far far greater sovereignty being out of the UK and pursuing membership of the EU than we currently have now. In the EU we generally see far more people thinking along the same lines as us on many issues. More progressive about the climate, highly sceptical of Israeli decimation of Palestinian people, dismissive of idiots like Trump, while our Tory overlords we do not vote for are far more right on these issues.. Scotland in the EU is a good fit, it's where we want to be, it's where I think and hope we end up. We can wake up every day knowing whatever some elitist Tory is planning to do that day finally won't directly affect us. That's enough for me.

Talk of economy can go down a rabbit hole. I see the UK has a huge deficit which has massively grown under the Tories.. and I see a small nation that can be nimble and has a massive potential in renewable energy in the near future. I honestly can't see Scotland going down the pan they way some automatically assume it will.

 

[Uzzy]

We don't know this really.

These are the things we know:
1. It is in the interest of the EU that the Scotland leaves the UK because the EU needs to look stronger, and the UK needs to be an example.
2. And so, it would be in the interest of the EU and Scotland that the transition is as smooth as possible. So we can not exclude the idea that some provisional things may be written down for Scotland in case it does leave the UK.

Here's another thing we know. Scottish exports totalled £78.6bn in 2015, of which £49.8bn went to the rest of the UK. That's 63%. Only £12.3bn went to the EU, or 16%.

Putting an economic barrier between Scotland and the rUK is probably not going to work out well.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I expect the results to be even less favorable, as people will be even more afraid of the consequences of being out if the UK and not in the EU.

 

[Shadowhelper]

And having to adopt the Euro would be devastating to Scotlands economy like it has been to so many countries. This is why Scotland has always been so desperate to keep the British pound, but if they want to join the EU that is not possible. Having to join the EU zone can be a death kiss.

Like I said, Scotland themselves know this, which is why even to the detriment of their own pride they clung onto and obsessed over London produced currency over the European currency. This idea, that Scotland can live its own fairy tale in the EU is not true. There will be no special deals for them, and they will have to adopt the euro and be stuck in an endless loop of increasing deficits. They don't want the EURO, but they will not have a choice. Scotlands economy is going down either way.

The UK is better off economically without Scotland, because Scotland doesn't contribute, it takes money. But politically, it would be devastating to the power of the UK, of course. I think Scotland would join the likes of Spain and Portugal economically speaking in the EU.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

And having to adopt the Euro would be devastating to Scotlands economy like it has been to so many countries. This is why Scotland has always been so desperate to keep the British pound, but if they want to join the EU that is not possible. Having to join the EU zone can be a death kiss.

Like I said, Scotland themselves know this, which is why even to the detriment of their own pride they clung onto and obsessed over London produced currency over the European currency. This idea, that Scotland can live its own fairy tale in the EU is not true. There will be no special deals for them, and they will have to adopt the euro and be stuck in an endless loop of increasing deficits. They don't want the EURO, but they will not have a choice. Scotlands economy is going down either way.

The UK is better off economically without Scotland, because Scotland doesn't contribute, it takes money. But politically, it would be devastating to the power of the UK, of course. I think Scotland would join the likes of Spain and Portugal economically speaking in the EU.

Can you please explain why the Euro is so bad?

 

[Rourkey]

Have the SNP decided what currency they will go with in Indyref2? euro, their own, or just use sterling and hope the BOE print notes for scotland to use and set interest rates and money supply with them in mind?

 

[Maledict]

The difference people seem to keep forgetting is that the UK does actually hold a lot of power in the EU. It's funny to see people moaning about having no clout yet I remember seeing a statement that something like 80-90% of new EU laws were voted for by the UK anyway. The UK had power in the EU to shape it. Maybe not as much power as it wanted but it still had power.

Scotland in the UK union however is completely and utterly shut down. At every turn. The power the devolved Scottish parliament has is ultimately not that great, we have what seems like almost perpetual Tory dominance over a country which simply votes entirely differently and is far more socialist in it's leaning (and yes it is a country in a supposed union of equal nations, lol).

Ergo we would still have far far greater sovereignty being out of the UK and pursuing membership of the EU than we currently have now. In the EU we generally see far more people thinking along the same lines as us on many issues. More progressive about the climate, highly sceptical of Israeli decimation of Palestinian people, dismissive of idiots like Trump, while our Tory overlords we do not vote for are far more right on these issues.. Scotland in the EU is a good fit, it's where we want to be, it's where I think and hope we end up. We can wake up every day knowing whatever some elitist Tory is planning to do that day finally won't directly affect us. That's enough for me.

Talk of economy can go down a rabbit hole. I see the UK has a huge deficit which has massively grown under the Tories.. and I see a small nation that can be nimble and has a massive potential in renewable energy in the near future. I honestly can't see Scotland going down the pan they way some automatically assume it will.

The Scottish parliament has some of the widest set of devolved powers in the world. It chooses to not use a lot of them for obvious reasons, e.g. The power of raising taxes.

 

[KarneeKarnay]

I think we are reaching a point where the British government has to change and react to an issue that has dogged it since the union was first formed.

Representation. Each of the Union members has it's own parliament, but England. Instead all the shots are called for England and the rest of the Union, by the British Parliament. This is inherently unfair and makes it almost impossible for an equal standing relationship between itself and the other members.

I do not believe we need to fedralise like the US, but we do need to address this issue and surrender some of the power to the other member parliaments. A good option would be to create an English Parliament and a British one. Allow the British one to dictate international policy and polices that impact the whole of Britain and let the other parliaments handle regional issues .

I don't think there is too much hope of this happening in my life time, but I would like to see some movement towards this to keep Scotland.

 

[Shadowhelper]

Can you please explain why the Euro is so bad?

Because the fiscal and monetary policies are not aligned, and the euro doesn't adjust for your economy.

If your economy tanks, then the currency becomes cheaper. You get more tourists, and exports increase due to how cheap it is, then your economy improves. That's the self balancing effect of currency price drops and increases. There's an equilibrium. But that natural self correcting mechanism doesn't happen if your currency never reflects the state of your economy.

Well if the Greek economy tanks, the euro will not adjust to reflect this, will not drop due to Germany's economic strength, therefore, their terms of trade, their deficit will just continue to increase as it has been. Their exports will still be more expensive than they should be. Greece continues to owe more and more money, because the EU has a fundamental economic flaw. Greeces deficit is increasing, which is why they are planning a referendum to leave the EU.

This is why Scotland has been absolutely desperate to not adopt the Euro. They don't want it. They hate it. They want to keep the British Pound, and it's a big deal.

You can get around this by pooling the wealth together and making the rich countries subsidize the poorer ones much more greatly. But as it stands, the EU zone is designed by mistake to enrich germany and keep other countries in a loop of poverty. This is also why the UK has a ridiculously amazing deal currently, and why other EU countries have resented the UK. We have our own currency but are part of the single market, which is an amazing position to be in. But the EU doesn't care about Scotland enough to offer this to them, clearly.

It's funny, English nationalism made the country throw away an amazing and beneficial deal to them. Now Scottish Nationalism is going to do the exact same thing, make Scotland throw away a very beneficial position to them in the UK.

 

[Syder]

We don't know this really.

These are the things we know:
1. It is in the interest of the EU that the Scotland leaves the UK because the EU needs to look stronger, and the UK needs to be an example.
2. And so, it would be in the interest of the EU and Scotland that the transition is as smooth as possible. So we can not exclude the idea that some provisional things may be written down for Scotland in case it does leave the UK.

I can see the rest of the UK doing all it can to make the transition as long and strenuous as possible.

Let's say Scotland do gain independence and join the EU, what good is it for them to upset their closest neighbours? and what good would it be for the EU to have another failing economy in it's union?

 

[DavidDesu]

The Scottish parliament has some of the widest set of devolved powers in the world. It chooses to not use a lot of them for obvious reasons, e.g. The power of raising taxes.

What does that have to do with being a sovereign independent nation... what we have is far FAR removed from being a sovereign nation.

 

[GrantDaNasty]

Do they want a referendum every 2 years then until they get the result they want?

Awfully familiar of when the Irish rejected the Lisbon treat so the eu forced them to have it again.

Also to the poster above me, they just had one ffs...

Things changed when England and Wales decided to fuck Scotland and Northern Ireland by completely disregarding their COMPLETE SUPPORT FOR REMAINING WITHIN THE EU. NOT A SINGLE FUCKING DISTRICT VOTED MAJORITY LEAVE IN THOSE NATIONS.

Scotland should get a vote for independence every single day of the week at the rate the British Parliament has been raking their people over the fucking coals.

As several posters have mentioned, a lot of the Remain vote in the last Indyref was based around the fear of losing EU membership, which is now redundant, as the UK as it were was advertising the benefits of it [The EU membership] to the Scottish people, meanwhile they voted "nah, that shit's useless" while all of Scotland said "hey...wait a minute.."

 

[Maledict]

What does that have to do with being a sovereign independent nation... what we have is far FAR removed from being a sovereign nation.

I'm responding to your point that the Scottish parliament ultimately doesn't have much power. It does. It chooses not to use it.

(It also chose to fuck over the Scottish NHS, by doing what even the tories wouldn't do and actually cutting its budgets, but that generally gets ignored).

 

[DavidDesu]

Let's not pretend there isn't a bad side to Scottish nationalism. Whilst it's only a small part of their supporters, there is a rabidly anti-English group of SNP supporters.

Love this argument.. not. Let's see, the SNP are very very loud about being pro immigration, and generally being highly progressive. A lot, like a hell of a lot of people who voted for Brexit did so entirely around one issue, reducing immigration. It was all over Twitter and everywhere else. The Scottish independence referendum being fought on some anti-English sentiment likely accounted for 0.5% of anyone's arguments... the remaining 95.5% of people stating clearly they gave no fucks and just wanted a progressive nation, nevermind who happened to be citizens or where they originally hailed from.

Brexit really was fought on a massively nationalistic racist tone, Scot indy was absolutely not, and trying to equate the two as I feel like you're doing is nonsense.

 

[Onyar]

This is false.

You keep repeating falsehoods.

It's true. http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2016/06/30/577402d5ca474191038b4582.html

Spain had always be against the independence of Scotland because Catalonia/Euskadi.

 

[DavidDesu]

I'm responding to your point that the Scottish parliament ultimately doesn't have much power. It does. It chooses not to use it.

(It also chose to fuck over the Scottish NHS, by doing what even the tories wouldn't do and actually cutting its budgets, but that generally gets ignored).

You're talking nonsense.. whatever powers you think Scotland has which it doesn't use, it's STILL far from being a remotely sovereign nation. That was my point.

 

[Maledict]

Love this argument.. not. Let's see, the SNP are very very loud about being pro immigration, and generally being highly progressive. A lot, like a hell of a lot of people who voted for Brexit did so entirely around one issue, reducing immigration. It was all over Twitter and everywhere else. The Scottish independence referendum being fought on some anti-English sentiment likely accounted for 0.5% of anyone's arguments... the remaining 95.5% of people stating clearly they gave no fucks and just wanted a progressive nation, nevermind who happened to be citizens or where they originally hailed from.

Brexit really was fought on a massively nationalistic racist tone, Scot indy was absolutely not, and trying to equate the two as I feel like you're doing is nonsense.

Which I specifically didn't do? And please go read my posts on Brexit, and the campaign they ran, you'll find me far more critical of them than the SNP. The majority of the SNP aren't at all like that, but it is factually true that there is a core group of SNP support which is rabidly racist towards English people. in the same way there's a small but horribly anti-Semitic element to left wing politics. It isn't all supporters, or even approaching a majority, but it is there.

 

[Maledict]

You're talking nonsense.. whatever powers you think Scotland has which it doesn't use, it's STILL far from being a remotely sovereign nation. That was my point.

I'm sorry but then you need to write your posts wth greater clarity and accuracy. The point you specifically made was that the Scottish parliament ultimately does not have much power. It does. By any reckoning it's one of the most powerful devolved governments in the world.

Does that equal sovereignty? Nope, absolutely not. Never said it did. But you didn't make that point, you commented on the powers it has.

 

[Protome]

It's true. http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2016/06/30/577402d5ca474191038b4582.html

Spain had always be against the independence of Scotland because Catalonia/Euskadi.

Maybe I'm misreading because google translate but that article just seems to be about Sturgeon not being allowed to negotiate with the EU while part of the UK and not about Spain saying they'll block Scotland from entering the EU?

 

[Bananajama]

They've never come out and definitively said Spain.

From what I've read there would be a low chance of them Veto'ing a Scottish application

Not the high I often see touted

The bigger question is - can Scotland meet the requirements needed to join the EU?

 

[Funky Papa]

It's true. http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2016/06/30/577402d5ca474191038b4582.html

Spain had always be against the independence of Scotland because Catalonia/Euskadi.

It is thoroughly false.

Spain is not saying that it will block Scotland from accessing the EU, but that it won't allow Scotland to negotiate said accession while it's still part of the UK nor Scotland remaining in the EU while the rest of the UK leaves. Scotland will have to exit the EU along the rest of the UK and then apply for membership.

Maybe I'm misreading because google translate but that article just seems to be about Sturgeon not being allowed to negotiate with the EU while part of the UK and not about Spain saying they'll block Scotland from entering the EU?

You are correct.

 

[Protome]

They've never come out and definitively said Spain.

From what I've read there would be a low chance of them Veto'ing a Scottish application

Not the high I often see touted

The bigger question is - can Scotland meet the requirements needed to join the EU?

Yeah, I wonder about this too. We wouldn't get the deals that the UK got because quite simply we wouldn't be able to offer what the UK does. So taking that into account, how many of the requirements of EU membership does Scotland currently not meet? And how big a change would it be to implement them?

 

[Onyar]

Maybe I'm misreading because google translate but that article just seems to be about Sturgeon not being allowed to negotiate with the EU while part of the UK and not about Spain saying they'll block Scotland from entering the EU?

Las competencias de Escocia para negociar eso son ninguna. El Gobierno español se opone, y coincidimos con todo el mundo seguro, a que la negociación se haga con alguien distinto que el Reino Unido

What Rajoy (PM of Spain) said is that Spain oposes to allow talks between Scotland and EU, meaning that the issue is all about the United Kingdom.

 

[Protome]

What Rajoy (PM of Spain) said is that Spain oposes to allow talks between Scotland and EU, meaning that the issue is all about the United Kingdom.

Yes, the context of that article being Sturgeon trying to start negotiations without the UK before Article 50 has been invoked. The EU as a whole wont negotiate until the article is invoked and Rajoy was saying that Scotland is still part of the UK, so it falls under the same rule.

That whole article is completely unrelated to the idea that Spain would be opposed to Scotland joining the EU.

 

[DavidDesu]

I'm sorry but then you need to write your posts wth greater clarity and accuracy. The point you specifically made was that the Scottish parliament ultimately does not have much power. It does. By any reckoning it's one of the most powerful devolved governments in the world.

Does that equal sovereignty? Nope, absolutely not. Never said it did. But you didn't make that point, you commented on the powers it has.

Feel like you're trying to obfuscate what was actually a pretty easy to read statement.

Scotland in the UK union however is completely and utterly shut down. At every turn. The power the devolved Scottish parliament has is ultimately not that great, we have what seems like almost perpetual Tory dominance over a country which simply votes entirely differently and is far more socialist in it's leaning (and yes it is a country in a supposed union of equal nations, lol).

Ergo we would still have far far greater sovereignty being out of the UK and pursuing membership of the EU than we currently have now.

I did mention sovereignty. And if you think the devolved parliament is remotely close to holding the same powers over our own affairs and destiny as what being a truly independent sovereign nation would then you're deluded. Devolved governance but with unelected Tories (as far as Scottish voters go) still holding the reigns for the vast majority of what the Scottish Parliament doesn't hold powers over (and the power to give, and take away what those powers are in the first place)... is not powerful.


EDIT: POWEERRR!

 

[Funky Papa]

What Rajoy (PM of Spain) said is that Spain oposes to allow talks between Scotland and EU, meaning that the issue is all about the United Kingdom.

Shadowhelper claims that Spain "has said many times they will not allow them to join the EU". This is a falsehood.

 

[Nerazar]

What Rajoy (PM of Spain) said is that Spain oposes to allow talks between Scotland and EU, meaning that the issue is all about the United Kingdom.

Yeah, because opening up two parallel negotiations (with special treatment for Scotland which the UK would exploit) would be unwise and detrimental to the whole process. But this only applies to Scotland as a member of the UK, not Scotland as a souvereign country.

 

[Protome]

Yeah, because opening up two parallel negotiations (with special treatment for Scotland which the UK would exploit) would be unwise and detrimental to the whole process. But this only applies to Scotland as a member of the UK, not Scotland as a souvereign country.

It's also only relevant while the UK is not allowed to negotiate, pre-Article 50.

 

[Toytown Assassin]

NOT A SINGLE FUCKING DISTRICT VOTED MAJORITY LEAVE IN THOSE NATIONS.

Nah some parts of Northern Ireland voted leave. They just decided to have the entire country as one counting zone on the map. Presumably for political reasons given the history of the place.

 

[tolkir]

If Scotland leaves UK legally with the approval of the British parlament, Spain won't say anything.

 

[GeordieMark]

I would say it's in the interest of the EU to welcome a newfound country that refused to leave the EU because they believe in it. It's just great publicity for the cause in my opinion.

The EU doesn't need another 'problem' country though, which Scotland could well end up being if they were to leave the UK. Losing the UK and gaining Scotland wouldn't be a win for the EU. Its hard to see that as a win for anyone.

 

[Maledict]

If Scotland leaves UK legally with the approval of the British parlament, Spain won't say anything.

Absolutely. The issue over Spain and an independent Scotland has always been hugely conflated by people. An independent Scotland which left as part of a legal deal with the rest of the UK, that met the criteria for joining the EU, would be welcomed with open arms.

The issue was always around Scotland declaring independence unilaterally. In which case it wouldn't just be Spain causing issues - most countries in the world wouldn't recognise it, barring some like Russia to cause trouble.

 

[Stinkles]

No, not really. The UK is a country. Made up of many other countries. It's not that different at all, actually. Certainly the same idea, absolutely. Spain is on record as saying they would not be amenable to allowing an independent scotland to join.

In fact, EU is so unenthused about the idea of Scotland joining the EU, every single thing they have said is just pouring cold water about Scotland joining. If they do join, it will take a long time, and they won't get any special deals. They will have to use the EU, and will not get the concessions the UK has.

They said it literally today.



Doesn't seem like the EU really cares to have Scotland join, and they would have to join the Euro Zone and not have any special concessions. Unless you are a massive net exporter, the Euro Zone is an objectively horrible economy to be a part of. So Scotland is fucked either way. They cannot keep the current UK EU deal, nor even join anytime soon, or stay in a diminished UK.

The EU sure doesn't seem to care one bit about Scotland, and Spain has said many times they will not allow them to join the EU, they're not the only country opposed to Scotland joining.

Sure Jan.

 

[Charles Brandon]

I think this is a precarious time for Scotland.

I am about a third Scottish, two thirds English but I've always identified as English, I'm pro-EU and pro-union but I accept the reasons why the Scots might want to leave.

However, economically, pragmatically it could be an absolute disaster.

There are the old problems about self-financing. Previously the case for self-sufficiency was made on the basis of $120 oil. That looks laughable now.

But the EU is an even bigger issue. It is by no means clear whether an independent Scotland would be within or outside the EU, assume the UK leaves as planned. But either way, they would be in difficulties

If they manage to stay in, that would mean no-trade deal with the UK and a hard border. I don't suppose Scotland could possibly survive a situation where there is no free trade and freedom of movement with England. It would be an absolute clusterfuck.

If they had to follow us out, that would mean that they would be so beholden to UK trade that any paper independence would be a sham.

Either way, I can't see this working.

If the UK manages to stay in the single market I imagine it will be OK though.

 

[8bit]

EU Officials Are Discussing How To Fast-Track An Independent Scotland’s Entry

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/eu-officials-are-discussing-how-to-fast-track-an-independent

I think it's pretty much inevitable in the next few years, May is inept yet somehow supported and is hell bent on fucking the country and alienating Europe, Corbyn has set the Labour Party on fire for the next few years and as much as I like Tim Farron I don't think the Lib Dems are going to gain popularity quickly. Sturgeon is reasonably well liked and sharper than Salmond, she will have done her homework this time.

 

[Onyar]

Yes everything that you said it's true, but the issue is that a lot of people will be convinced to vote for independence if they can be sure that Scotland will be in the UE and this is what Spain and France is blocking.

The fact that these countries are blocking the talks means they won't support the independence because they aren't giving any support for one of the main logics the independence has, remain in the UE.

So I guess the question in here is that if UE aren't giving any clue if Scotland will be admited in the union or not, or how many time this will take, basically to know how UE will behave, is not supporting the independence or not.

 

[Protome]

Yes everything that you said it's true, but the issue is that a lot of people will be convinced to vote for independence if they can be sure that Scotland will be in the UE and this is what Spain and France is blocking.

The fact that these countries are blocking the talks means they won't support the independence because they aren't giving any support for one of the main logics the independence has, remain in the UE.

So I guess the question in here is that if UE aren't giving any clue if Scotland will be admited in the union or not, or how many time this will take, basically to know how UE will behave, is not supporting the independence or not.

You're missing the context of that article.
France and Spain are blocking Scotland from talking to the EU about membership because they are part of the UK and part of leaving the EU is that negotiations can't be started until Article 50 is invoked. EU states wont negotiate with Scotland because they wont negotiate with the UK. Nothing in that article is about not negotiating with Scotland ever or not letting them in post independence.

 

[Shadowhelper]

I think this is a precarious time for Scotland.

I am about a third Scottish, two thirds English but I've always identified as English, I'm pro-EU and pro-union but I accept the reasons why the Scots might want to leave.

However, economically, pragmatically it could be an absolute disaster.

There are the old problems about self-financing. Previously the case for self-sufficiency was made on the basis of $120 oil. That looks laughable now.

But the EU is an even bigger issue. It is by no means clear whether an independent Scotland would be within or outside the EU, assume the UK leaves as planned. But either way, they would be in difficulties

If they manage to stay in, that would mean no-trade deal with the UK and a hard border. I don't suppose Scotland could possibly survive a situation where there is no free trade and freedom of movement with England. It would be an absolute clusterfuck.

If they had to follow us out, that would mean that they would be so beholden to UK trade that any paper independence would be a sham.

Either way, I can't see this working.

If the UK manages to stay in the single market I imagine it will be OK though.

Yeah, Scotland was really fooling itself when it thought it could take over the UKs position in the EU just like that. LOL

The EU poured cold water on that very very quickly. Ain't happening. Doesn't seem like Scotland really has any good options, just choosing between a few bad ones.

Even if they are able to join the EU, even though, just today the EU said they are not really interested in considering more countries, in specific reference to Scotland, they'll have to adopt the euro, and will now be net contributors to the EU, whereas right now they are net takers from London.

Economically, you would absolutely expect Scotland to really flounder in the Euro Zone, and not having easy access to the rest of the country or London, ouch. Impossible to see how GDP per capita for Scotland wouldn't dramatically drop. Scotland leaving the union automatically increases the GDP per capita for the rest of the UK, so in terms of our economy, it won't be devastating for Scotland to leave, like it will be for Scotland.

And when it come to foreign direct investment, the thing the country lives off, its all South East, and London, not Scotland at all, as per the Financial Times. So enjoy trying to run a broken economy with no more FDI, and having to adopt the euro. Like I said, there's a reason Scotland has been desperately refusing to adopt the euro. Can't have your cake and eat it too, this time.

 

[ittoryu]

Yeah, Scotland was really fooling itself when it thought it could take over the UKs position in the EU just like that. LOL

The EU poured cold water on that very very quickly. Ain't happening. Doesn't seem like Scotland really has any good options, just choosing between a few bad ones.

Even if they are able to join the EU, even though, just today the EU said they are not really interested in considering more countries, in specific reference to Scotland, they'll have to adopt the euro, and will now be net contributors to the EU, whereas right now they are net takers from London.

Economically, you would absolutely expect Scotland to really flounder in the Euro Zone, and not having easy access to the rest of the country or London, ouch. Impossible to see how GDP per capita for Scotland wouldn't dramatically drop. Scotland leaving the union automatically increases the GDP per capita for the rest of the UK, so in terms of our economy, it won't be devastating for Scotland to leave, like it will be for Scotland.

And when it come to foreign direct investment, the thing the country lives off, its all South East, and London, not Scotland at all, as per the Financial Times. So enjoy trying to run a broken economy with no more FDI, and having to adopt the euro. Like I said, there's a reason Scotland has been desperately refusing to adopt the euro. Can't have your cake and eat it too, this time.

If they leave the UK, they can apply to be part of the EU, regardlesss of what you are trying to push with your agenda here.

 

[Charles Brandon]

The only way that Scotland can sensibly be independent is if the UK slimes it's way into a free trade deal with the EU, then it might work. It would still be economically bad but survivable. If they go it alone against a backdrop of the UK dropping out of the EU lock, stock and barrel it's going to be a mess. Scotland will not be able to survive without trade with England.

 

[Nerazar]

The only way that Scotland can sensibly be independent is if the UK slimes it's way into a free trade deal with the EU, then it might work. It would still be economically bad but survivable. If they go it alone against a backdrop of the UK dropping out of the EU lock, stock and barrel it's going to be a mess. Scotland will not be able to survive without trade with England.

It's not like England would rebuild Hadrian's Wall and stop any trade. It's not in their interest to kick a neighbor in the crotch.

 

[Maledict]

It's not like England would rebuild Hadrian's Wall and stop any trade. It's not in their interest to kick a neighbor in the crotch.

It wouldn't be a choice. If Scotland was in the EU then scotlands trade with the UK would have to follow the UK / EU trade deal, which (without single market access) would mean tariffs which would absolutely cripple scotlands economy. Scotlands trade with the rest of the U.K. Is an even bigger issue for them that the UK losing EU access.

 

[Elfotografoalocado]

The relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK is totally abusive the same way they are in couples.
The UK keeps hurting and fucking over Scotland, and whenever Scotland makes a movement for leaving the shithole Westminster reminds them how "they are nothing outside of the Union, how the Union loves them, how they are stronger together, blah blah blah."
Only to them bash them into the wall again, completely disregarding any promise they made before.
On top of that Thatcher 2.0 is set on destroying the welfare state of the UK, so I'd say it's time to get the fuck out of there. Don't believe their lies.

To those speaking against nationalism, fleeing the UK is now an anti-nationalist movement, as the proverbial English pride and entitlement is what caused this shit show.
The days of enslaving half the world are done.

 

[sflufan]

Now if they leave Britain, how fast could it be possible for them to join the EU?

Technically, it will be quite difficult for Scotland to leave "Britain"

 

[Nerazar]

It UKs the be a choice. If Scotland was in the EU then scotlands trade with the UK would have to follow the UK / EU trade deal, which (without single market access) would mean tariffs which would absolutely cripple scotlands economy. Scotlands trade with the rest of the U.K. Is an even bigger issue for them that the UK losing EU access.

That is true. That's why I would hope that the "hard Brexit" argument will turn soft after some negotiation rounds. I don't understand why they're pushing for it this hard even though only 52% were in favor of leaving the EU (without even indicating whether it should be a hard or a soft exit). If that's a negotiation strategy, fine, but I think May's bluff will be called.

 

[Charles Brandon]

That is true. That's why I would hope that the "hard Brexit" argument will turn soft after some negotiation rounds. I don't understand why they're pushing for it this hard even though only 52% were in favor of leaving the EU (without even indicating whether it should be a hard or a soft exit). If that's a negotiation strategy, fine, but I think May's bluff will be called.

It's absolutely a strategy. She is hoping that business interests in the EU will trump national interests in making an example of the UK. A face saving fudge where the UK pays onto the EU but has a cap on free movement and access to the single market is a possible outcome. I won't suggest it is a likely outcome. But if that does not happen, Scotland would have to be insane to leave the UK.

 

[Maledict]

That is true. That's why I would hope that the "hard Brexit" argument will turn soft after some negotiation rounds. I don't understand why they're pushing for it this hard even though only 52% were in favor of leaving the EU (without even indicating whether it should be a hard or a soft exit). If that's a negotiation strategy, fine, but I think May's bluff will be called.

The best bet for an independent Scotland would be the UK having single market access, so not trade issues would arise. But of course if that is secured, it's far less likely Scotland would vote to leave in the first place.