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[QuicheFontaine]

Well it is hardly just what 'Nicola wants' is it? The UK is in political disarray, and while the May's Tories do have a surprising amount of support considering their shambolic performance pre and post EU Referendum, there is always opportunity in chaose. Sure it is soon after the last one, but it is always going to be a gamble, and internally the situation in the UK is comparatively worse than it was prior to the first vote, particularly as perceived by those on the centre and left of politics.

I'm just saying that I think this is part of a larger strategy to boost support for independence down the line. By forcing the issue at this time and making the UK govt say "not right now", it gives the SNP something to rail against.

I don't think Nicola really wants another Indyref until polls show support for Yes to be consistently above 60%. I'm sure I read that somewhere following the 2014 result. It could actually be a strong move from Theresa May to simply say "go ahead". The result is not a gimme for Yes right now - it's not a gimme for either side right now tbh. That's why I'm saying Nicola wants her to say no.

 

[Bits N Pieces]

Turned the country against ye mate?

Aye they've turned the country against me!

 

[krang]

I'm just saying that I think this is part of a larger strategy to boost support for independence down the line. By forcing the issue at this time and making the UK govt say "not right now", it gives the SNP something to rail against.

I don't think Nicola really wants another Indyref until polls show support for Yes to be consistently above 60%. I'm sure I read that somewhere following the 2014 result. It could actually be a strong move from Theresa May to simply say "go ahead". The result is not a gimme for Yes right now - it's not a gimme for either side right now tbh. That's why I'm saying Nicola wants her to say no.

The problem is that the government would have to put effort and money into campaigning for the union. Ain't nobody got time for that, right now.

Although I agree, doing it now would close the issue for decades.

 

[Protome]

Although I agree, doing it now would close the issue for decades.

Kinda depends on if the UK campaigns with something that then changes again, like with EU membership.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

The problem is that the government would have to put effort and money into campaigning for the union. Ain't nobody got time for that, right now.

Although I agree, doing it now would close the issue for decades.

Yep, I think that will be the answer and the reasoning. It's a pretty smart move from the SNP.

 

[Clear]

It never ceases to amuse me how Scottish Nationalism is somehow noble and aspirational, whereas English Nationalism is tainted and ignoble. Like somehow racism, sectarianism and xenophobia disappear once you go north of the border!

 

[ClosingADoor]

It never ceases to amuse me how Scottish Nationalism is somehow noble and aspirational, whereas English Nationalism is tainted and ignoble. Like somehow racism, sectarianism and xenophobia disappear once you go north of the border!

That's because the power is not equal. And because the two are not the same. If the Scots were like "let's become independent so we can kick all foreigners out!" the sympathy would quickly go away.

 

[system11]

Enjoying watching everyone cheering for the nationalist SNP rabble rousers.

Brexit is just the latest excuse, there are elements of the SNP who will never be happy until Scotland leaves the union. I've not yet worked out if Sturgeon is the way she is because she needs to appease them, or if she genuinely believes the absolute rubbish she comes up with all the time. (They aren't even supported by a majority of Scots, and support for indyref 2 has actually been falling) - this was incorrect I've since learned, sorry.

Ultimately I don't actually care whether Scotland leaves or stays, it's their country and they should do whatever the majority feels is right. I'm just tired of the troll Sturgeon emerging from under her bridge every now and then with some trite soundbites and referendum threats, before returning to her lurking and plotting. Tracy Ullman did an excellent sketch lampooning her just last week.

 

[TrutaS]

If they manage to talk to EU representatives, and guarantee that an independent Scotland would be part of the EU, at least not long after - I think they will definitely win the referendum. From my perception of those around me (which is of course a sub-group) people are way more Pro-EU than Pro-UK. Also, they might open the vote to EU immigrants (I think they did last referendum), which makes this vote even clearer.

 

[Uzzy]

Wasn't that basically the campaign slogan for Brexit? Why is that situation any different?

Don't the people of Scotland deserve to chose their own union?

Of course. They were even granted a binding referendum on that question just a few years ago, something most other countries would never do.

 

[Maledict]

That's because the power is not equal. And because the two are not the same. If the Scots were like "let's become independent so we can kick all foreigners out!" the sympathy would quickly go away.

Let's not pretend there isn't a bad side to Scottish nationalism. Whilst it's only a small part of their supporters, there is a rabidly anti-English group of SNP supporters.

 

[Wrestlemania]

and support for indyref 2 has actually been falling

Nope.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.te...ndence-rising-ahead-brexit/amp/?client=safari

 

[Nerazar]

I have no issue with Scotland choosing to be independent. I think it would be a mistake, even in these awful Brexit times, but that's their right. I just object to this weird notion that Scotland isn't already free, or doesn't get respect. It's like when people post pictures of that fucking awful Mel Gibson movie.

It's as dumb as the Brexit folk claiming the UK isn't free in Europe. Being part of a union you choose to be in for the benefits it gives you, that you can leave if you want to, is not slavery or occupation! Hell, by every definition any state in America is not free given they can't leave the USA if they want to.

Cool, then I agree with you. I understand that the EU does have problems, it's not lean and sometimes not very efficient, but this whole notion of "take our country back!" was nonsense from the beginning. This is what right-wing populism will always turn out to be: arouse people's anger and their fears and then turn their tail if problems arise after the fact.

It's just that those Brexiteers shouldn't have a problem with another referendum by Scotland and should not bring up an uncertain future, because their whole campaign was based on the notion to "take our country back" and that it's better to be free than anything else. Ignoring every statement which basically said that it would be unwise to take a hard break and not negotiate.

So it would be fair, if anything, to allow Scotland to also have a referendum. I'm not saying that it would be the best choice economically, but it would be at least somewhat coherent. Or at least have Scotland be a major part of the negotiation of Brexit. But that won't happen as well. It's as if independence is only worthwhile if it's not from the UK.

 

[The Hamburglar]

Do they want a referendum every 2 years then until they get the result they want?

Awfully familiar of when the Irish rejected the Lisbon treat so the eu forced them to have it again.

Also to the poster above me, they just had one ffs...

 

[nelsonroyale]

Enjoying watching everyone cheering for the nationalist SNP rabble rousers.

Brexit is just the latest excuse, there are elements of the SNP who will never be happy until Scotland leaves the union. I've not yet worked out if Sturgeon is the way she is because she needs to appease them, or if she genuinely believes the absolute rubbish she comes up with all the time. They aren't even supported by a majority of Scots, and support for indyref 2 has actually been falling.

Ultimately I don't actually care whether Scotland leaves or stays, it's their country and they should do whatever the majority feels is right. I'm just tired of the troll Sturgeon emerging from under her bridge every now and then with some trite soundbites and referendum threats, before returning to her lurking and plotting. Tracy Ullman did an excellent sketch lampooning her just last week.

Nothing in the tone or the content of what you say suggets this at all. What you comes across as very concerned and rather bitter. Why not be honest and admit as such. It is pretty disingeneous otherwise, and would show a pretty low level of reflexivity.

 

[More Fun To Compute]

It never ceases to amuse me how Scottish Nationalism is somehow noble and aspirational, whereas English Nationalism is tainted and ignoble. Like somehow racism, sectarianism and xenophobia disappear once you go north of the border!

The population of white British in Glasgow is around 90% compared to more like 50% for London. Diversity concerns are less of a public issue because there is much less.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Do they want a referendum every 2 years then until they get the result they want?

Awfully familiar of when the Irish rejected the Lisbon treat so the eu forced them to have it again.

This wouldn't be a discussion if Brexit wasn't a thing. Situations change.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Nope.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.te...ndence-rising-ahead-brexit/amp/?client=safari

I read that that was caused by a sampling error: http://uk.businessinsider.com/scottish-independence-bmg-poll-sampling-error-behind-bmg-poll-putting-support-on-49-2017-2

 

[andythinkpad]

Haha the Scotts will vote staus quote.

 

[War Peaceman]

Do they want a referendum every 2 years then until they get the result they want?

Awfully familiar of when the Irish rejected the Lisbon treat so the eu forced them to have it again.

Also to the poster above me, they just had one ffs...

The EU referendum fundamentally changed things. I'd prefer Scotland to stay, but I think it is reasonable to say that the terms have massively changed (or are about to).

 

[kmag]

Enjoying watching everyone cheering for the nationalist SNP rabble rousers.

Brexit is just the latest excuse, there are elements of the SNP who will never be happy until Scotland leaves the union. I've not yet worked out if Sturgeon is the way she is because she needs to appease them, or if she genuinely believes the absolute rubbish she comes up with all the time. They aren't even supported by a majority of Scots, and support for indyref 2 has actually been falling.

Ultimately I don't actually care whether Scotland leaves or stays, it's their country and they should do whatever the majority feels is right. I'm just tired of the troll Sturgeon emerging from under her bridge every now and then with some trite soundbites and referendum threats, before returning to her lurking and plotting. Tracy Ullman did an excellent sketch lampooning her just last week.

GE2015: 1,454,436 voted for SNP, 39,205 voted for Scottish Greens from 2,910,465 votes (71% turnout). The combined total is over 50% of the vote.

 

[The Hamburglar]

This wouldn't be a discussion if Brexit wasn't a thing. Situations change.

More like any excuse to have a referendum and push the snp agenda.

 

[ClosingADoor]

More like any excuse to have a referendum and push the snp agenda.

Staying part of the EU was a large part of the Remain campaign for the Scottish referendum. Exiting the EU is a pretty major thing that might change the opinions of many people.

 

[kmag]

The population of white British in Glasgow is around 90% compared to more like 50% for London. Diversity concerns are less of a public issue because there is much less.

Yet in England it's the areas with the least diversity which are more inclined to be anti-immigration. Funny that.

 

[system11]

Nope.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.te...ndence-rising-ahead-brexit/amp/?client=safari

Hadn't seen that yet, thanks. It's changed since November. If they want it, they should do it.

 

[ShironRedshift]

Do they want a referendum every 2 years then until they get the result they want?

Awfully familiar of when the Irish rejected the Lisbon treat so the eu forced them to have it again.

Also to the poster above me, they just had one ffs...

Ain't about "getting the result they want." The deal last time was that as long as they remained part of the UK, they would be in the EU. That deal has clearly changed and been violated--the promises of the Remain campaign and "Stronger Together" didn't end up panning out. Therefore, Scotland definitely deserves to have its voice heard again, given the changed situation, and if people feel the same way or not given that the situation is so largely different now from what it was then.

 

[Clear]

That's because the power is not equal. And because the two are not the same. If the Scots were like "let's become independent so we can kick all foreigners out!" the sympathy would quickly go away.

Well, it seems to me that thanks to devolution Scots have more direct political control than most people in the North of England; for example how often do you see people in Liverpool celebrating a Tory victory?

Sorry but Nationalism/Secessionism as a sentiment, is the same anywhere if the people lobbying for it aren't fighting against oppression/occupation and are simply aiming to get more political power for themselves.

 

[Nerazar]

Of course. They were even granted a binding referendum on that question just a few years ago, something most other countries would never do.

I see that, but the situation has slightly changed, I suppose. The referendum back then would have been a bit different if staying with the UK also meant losing the EU and with it the access to the common market and free movement of people. But that was not on the ballot back then.

Another referendum will be necessary when (and not if) May's plans to negotiate bilateral deals fails. She's probably unaware of the whole situation, like Trump is, and reality will come back to haunt her and her ambitions. The UK is great and all, but the world is a bigger place now. Being part of the EU also meant getting the best deals with countries like China or the USA, because you were not a single party.

But the UK on its own will have to sell itself - hard. Cutting taxes to attract businesses, signing bad deals to keep businesses and basically be a chess piece of the US, of the EU, of Russia and of China.

The reality will be the middle ground between optimism and pessimism like my post, but it will involve a step back or a step down in comparison what the UK has now. And the budget of the Union will have to change accordingly which will have a (negative) impact on people's lives. And that may trigger another referendum by itself.

 

[Uzzy]

If they manage to talk to EU representatives, and guarantee that an independent Scotland would be part of the EU, at least not long after - I think they will definitely win the referendum. From my perception of those around me (which is of course a sub-group) people are way more Pro-EU than Pro-UK. Also, they might open the vote to EU immigrants (I think they did last referendum), which makes this vote even clearer.

The European Commission's head of representation here in the UK just said that an independent Scotland would need to reapply.

The fact that Scotland already complies with EU law and legislation would help with the application, but questions about which currency to use would probably hamper them. Of course, Scotland within the UK won't be staying in the EU anyway.

 

[SomTervo]

I want it now

 

[kmag]

Well, it seems to me that thanks to devolution Scots have more direct political control than most people in the North of England; for example how often do you see people in Liverpool celebrating a Tory victory?

Sorry but Nationalism/Secessionism as a sentiment, is the same anywhere if the people lobbying for it aren't fighting against oppression/occupation and are simply aiming to get more political power for themselves.

All politics (outside of a niche branch of socialism) is inherently nationalist. The Tories: Nationalists. Labour: Nationalists. UKIP: Nationalists. LibDems: Nationalist.

You just happen to agree with their form of nationalism, and it's more settled, but it's still nationalist. The rhetoric out of Theresa May on a daily basis recently is probably more nationalist than Sturgeon.

There's nothing wrong in any community seeking to claim more say in how they are governed.

 

[system11]

Nothing in the tone or the content of what you say suggets this at all. What you comes across as very concerned and rather bitter. Why not be honest and admit as such. It is pretty disingeneous otherwise, and would show a pretty low level of reflexivity.

I'm tired of the SNP and their posturing and threats. If Scottish people want independance they should have it, as is their right.

 

[More Fun To Compute]

Yet in England it's the areas with the least diversity which are more inclined to be anti-immigration. Funny that.

It's almost like people who don't like diversity avoid it and things like white flight exist to segregate society.

All politics (outside of a niche branch of socialism) is inherently nationalist. The Tories: Nationalists. Labour: Nationalists. UKIP: Nationalists. LibDems: Nationalist.

You just happen to agree with their form of nationalism, and it's more settled, but it's still nationalist. The rhetoric out of Theresa May on a daily basis recently is probably more nationalist than Sturgeon.

There's nothing wrong in any community seeking to claim more say in how they are governed.

This is not really true. Socialism is fundamentally an internationalist movement and the Tories are unionists. They are even called the Conservative and Unionist party, they are not a nationalist party at all.

 

[krang]

Yet in England it's the areas with the least diversity which are more inclined to be anti-immigration. Funny that.

That makes more sense, to be honest. High diversity would mean more exposure to people of other cultures, and therefore would feel more integrated into the every day. You're more likely to have friends and coworkers who are of a different ethnicity, for example.

 

[Shadowhelper]

Spain and another couple countries are unlikely to ever let Scotland join the EU if they leave the UK.

If Scotland leaves the UK they would have to apply for EU membership which would take a very very long time, EU said this themselves literally today.

The EU economic zone is broken and flawed, unless you are France, Germany, or what the UK had. Scotland would be poor under the EU, with perpetually worsening trades of balance since they don't export and the Euro doesn't adjust for an individual country.

But yeah, another referendum is needed to avoid this disastor, but Scotland doesn't have many options or is in a position of strength at all. The country runs off money London gives it to balance it books, like the rest of the country actually.

 

[Funky Papa]

Spain and another couple countries are unlikely to ever let Scotland join the EU if they leave the UK.

If Scotland leaves the UK they would have to apply for EU membership which would take a very very long time, EU said this themselves literally today.

The EU economic zone is broken and flawed, unless you are France, Germany, or what the UK had. Scotland would be poor under the EU, with perpetually worsening trades of balance since they don't export and the Euro doesn't adjust for an individual country.

But yeah, another referendum is needed to avoid this disastor, but Scotland doesn't have many options of is in a position of strength at all. The country runs off money London gives it to balance it books, like the rest of the country actually.

Not really. That will depend on the governing party. Anybody but the PP would accept them with open arms.

 

[Nerazar]

Spain and another couple countries are unlikely to ever let Scotland join the EU if they leave the UK.

If Scotland leaves the UK they would have to apply for EU membership which would take a very very long time, EU said this themselves literally today.

The EU economic zone is broken and flawed, unless you are France, Germany, or what the UK had. Scotland would be poor under the EU, with perpetually worsening trades of balance since they don't export and the Euro doesn't adjust for an individual country.

But yeah, another referendum is needed to avoid this disastor, but Scotland doesn't have many options or is in a position of strength at all. The country runs off money London gives it to balance it books, like the rest of the country actually.

Well, they would get fast-tracked, because most issues are already sorted out with them being in the EU right now. But yes, it's not automatic. And some countries need to be appeased somehow, but I think Spain can be silenced with some money.

The whole situation is not great. London will have to stop sending money up North eventually, because London is about to take a beating, depending on the willingness to compromise on May's side (which is zero). Take away the financial sector and all those big company HQs and what is left then?

So Scotland has to decide to stay on one sinking ship or to hop on another ship which is being steered towards an iceberg by far-right populists.

 

[Protome]

Spain and another couple countries are unlikely to ever let Scotland join the EU if they leave the UK.

 

[Frankfurter]

So Scotland doesn't export, good to know.

 

[chromatic9]

Weird thing about Scotland is how it's 96% white despite being part of the UK with the commonwealth and the EU. People have avoided going there

I think Scotland has to somehow turn the economy around.

Spain and another couple countries are unlikely to ever let Scotland join the EU if they leave the UK

Scotland is a separate country merely part of a Union. It isn't a region like Catalonia.

I've even read Spain officials say we'd have to explain to others about Scotland as they also acknowledge it's different for Scotland.

 

[sw26]

The problem is that the government would have to put effort and money into campaigning for the union. Ain't nobody got time for that, right now.

Although I agree, doing it now would close the issue for decades.

Well it was already stated to be 'once in a generation' the first time and look how that turned out...

 

[Protome]

Well it was already stated to be 'once in a generation' the first time and look how that turned out...

It was also stated that staying in the UK was the only way for Scotland to remain in the EU and look how that turned out...

 

[TrutaS]

I would say it's in the interest of the EU to welcome a newfound country that refused to leave the EU because they believe in it. It's just great publicity for the cause in my opinion.

 

[Nerazar]

I would say it's in the interest of the EU to welcome a newfound country that refused to leave the EU because they believe in it. It's just great publicity for the cause in my opinion.

Absolutely. I think that the diplomacy behind it is a bit more intricate since they don't want to break the UK during the Brexit negotiations, but they sure should fast-track any application and give Scotland a new home if that happens.

The Scoxit campaign has to coordinate with the EU so that the transition is well designed.

 

[Goodlife]

Haha the Scotts will vote staus quote.

Which is?

 

[Syder]

How long would it take Scotland to leave the UK and then join the EU?

Wouldn't it take years of a tanking economy to do this?

 

[DavidDesu]

It's almost like people who don't like diversity avoid it and things like white flight exist to segregate society.



This is not really true. Socialism is fundamentally an internationalist movement and the Tories are unionists. They are even called the Conservative and Unionist party, they are not a nationalist party at all.

...and Scotland is highly socialist in it's political leanings, far more so than rUK looking at the voting records... yet Scotland more often than not ends up with ultimate Tory leadership thanks to Westminster. We're far more accepting of immigrants, we have far more progressive ideas and actually want to protect the NHS where the Tories are clearly about to massively privatise the thing and turn it into an American style system (and sell it off to American private health care firms)... so I don't really see your point.

 

[Funky Papa]

How long would it take Scotland to leave the UK and then join the EU?

Wouldn't it take years of a tanking economy to do this?

Probably. Scotland is going to find itself between a rock and a hard place.

I think its biggest chance would rest in wooing some industries currently located in the rest of the UK, promising quick access to the common market once they are in. But it's not going to be easy.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

How long would it take Scotland to leave the UK and then join the EU?

Wouldn't it take years of a tanking economy to do this?

We don't know this really.

These are the things we know:
1. It is in the interest of the EU that the Scotland leaves the UK because the EU needs to look stronger, and the UK needs to be an example.
2. And so, it would be in the interest of the EU and Scotland that the transition is as smooth as possible. So we can not exclude the idea that some provisional things may be written down for Scotland in case it does leave the UK.

 

[Bananajama]

Call the bluff - give the referendum