Your 9 million figure is more accurate.nextgeneration said:Hmm, I have ps2 at approximately 9 million in the same time frame. All my other numbers are in line with what you have.
Your 9 million figure is more accurate.nextgeneration said:Hmm, I have ps2 at approximately 9 million in the same time frame. All my other numbers are in line with what you have.
Kilrogg said:13.9 million units for the PS2!? Wasn't the Wii supposed to be selling at a faster rate than the PS2 already?
This is actually a selling point that Best Buy and places use to push PS3s. Let's not forget that the PS3 is not only a blu-ray player but a complete home entertainment system!DonDepre said:I think that Sony has fooled completly the other members of the BR consorcium. With all that bullshit of BR 1.0, 1.1, 2.0 versions, the BR reproducers of the other companies are getting old quickly. That makes the PS3 the best option for a BR player. You know that if you buy a Phillips BR player for $200, it will be old in two years, meanwhile PS3 can update to next versions.
So, I think Sony made the BR standar in a way that the PS3 takes the advantadge over the other BR players. Ey, and also play games!
Kilrogg said:Actually, yes, there are people who know how this will play out. At least, the big picture. These people are those who know things about business in general, the videogame industry in particular, and know the strategies used by the three manufacturers.
Zefah said:No one knows anything. We can only speculate.
Remember at the beginning of this generation how most "analysts" stated, as if as fact, that the Playstation 3 was going to dominate the competition and that the Wii would be a relatively short-lasting 'fad'? They are certainly wrong at this point...
PepsimanVsJoe said:It could happen.
Gaborn said:Aliens could land on the white house lawn in an hour. It's just not really probable.
Ok. Let's grant them that.DonDepre said:I don't believe that PS3 had sold only 10 millions. The official numbers of the Finantial Results of Sony were 3.57 sold in finantial year 2006 and 9.24 sold in finantial year 2007.
That means that in march 1, 08, the total amount was 12.81. So I don't fount so strange a value of near 15M units. Yes, probably is shipped, not sold, but the PS2 numbers are with the same criteria, so the similitudes in the sells of PS2 & PS3 are clear.
dead souls said:It's more probable than the PS3 reaching 150m units sold.
Gaborn said:I hope so, because that would unquestionably be awesome!
AdventureRacing said:Maybe they will buy 100M PS3's, perhaps Kaz knows something we don't.
Anasui Kishibe said:only the Doctor could make it happen
Hunahan said:Ok. Let's grant them that.
By March 1st, let's say that they were at 15million units.
That leaves 104 months until their 10 year deadline, and 135million units left to sell for this forecast to be accurate.
They need to sell 1,298,077 units per month, every month, for the next 104 months straight for this equation to work out.
They aren't off to a great start in that objective.
And I'm really not sure when they are expecting to be able to meet it, which will only make things more difficult, since the remainder aggregate continues to build, making the requirements for future months even higher.
kpop100 said:or they are really banking on the non-gaming features to sell it.
DonDepre said:I think that Sony has fooled completly the other members of the BR consorcium. With all that bullshit of BR 1.0, 1.1, 2.0 versions, the BR reproducers of the other companies are getting old quickly. That makes the PS3 the best option for a BR player. You know that if you buy a Phillips BR player for $200, it will be old in two years, meanwhile PS3 can update to next versions.
So, I think Sony made the BR standar in a way that the PS3 takes the advantadge over the other BR players. Ey, and also play games!
bdouble said:the PS3 is not the only BRD player that can update its firmware.
Hunahan said:Ok. Let's grant them that.
By March 1st, let's say that they were at 15million units.
That leaves 104 months until their 10 year deadline, and 135million units left to sell for this forecast to be accurate.
They need to sell 1,298,077 units per month, every month, for the next 104 months straight for this equation to work out.
They aren't off to a great start in that objective.
And I'm really not sure when they are expecting to be able to meet it, which will only make things more difficult, since the remainder aggregate continues to build, making the requirements for future months even higher.
jay said:What's more amusing, that Kaz is paid to make up absurd claims or that there will always be people who believe any absurd claim he is paid to make up?
Kinitari said:Mmmm, not saying they're GOING to hit that 150mil or anything, but it doesn't really work like that...
If you look at the Ps2's cycle, before it got real cheap, you'd see something like 200-400k sales per month from around Feb-September, then October -> January it would be anywhere from 600-700k to 1.5mil a month (And as far as I can tell, this is only US data).
So it's really faaaar to erratic to break it down to an even 1.3mil a month calculation.
FightyF said:If Kaz told us a year ago that the PS3 price would have dropped $100, none of us would have believed him.
I think that the PS3 can hit that target with an aggressive pricing plan. I KNOW there will be a day when the price is something that I, at one point, will find irresistible and I'll grab ANOTHER PS3 so it can be another BluRay machine at another HT setup I have. It's been so convenient having 2 360s, and I wouldn't mind doing the same with the PS3.
The question is how soon can that happen, and can it match the price drops that other BR players are seeing.
I'm in the middle of the road here...I'm not one of those laughing at Kaz's claim, and I'm not taking it as gospel either. I think it is possible if Sony can do some things, namely, keep up their 1st party output, and reduce the price by the nearly same factor they did last year, for the next few years. $100 price drop this year is too much to ask for, but $50 wouldn't hurt.
laserbeam said:The PS2 was already breaching the 30 million unit mark after 2 full years on the market. The PS3 is attempting to breach the 15 million unit mark.
laserbeam said:The PS2 was already breaching the 30 million unit mark after 2 full years on the market. The PS3 is attempting to breach the 15 million unit mark.
Kinitari said:Mmmm, not saying they're GOING to hit that 150mil or anything, but it doesn't really work like that...
If you look at the Ps2's cycle, before it got real cheap, you'd see something like 200-400k sales per month from around Feb-September, then October -> January it would be anywhere from 600-700k to 1.5mil a month (And as far as I can tell, this is only US data).
So it's really faaaar to erratic to break it down to an even 1.3mil a month calculation.
Of course not. There's also the factor that November/December period time sales always spike dramatically, etc.kpop100 said:Well you can't really break it down that simply since most of the sales in a console's lifespan will come at the $199 or lower price. So obviously sales will be very back heavy. At this pace it will be another 4 years until the PS3 is that price, so either there will be a 10-15 year lifespan, or they are really banking on the non-gaming features to sell it.
Hunahan said:Of course not. There's also the factor that November/December period time sales always spike dramatically, etc.
I was just trying to offer some perspective. Whether they have sold 10 million or 15 million by this point doesn't really matter. The sales spike necessary to reach these cumulative figures is equally outlandish.
The problem with the $199 factor is that the longer they wait, the tougher that climb will be. But even if there was a price drop in April, and all "best case scenario" factors are granted, I really doubt that it would have made enough of a difference for these numbers to be viable.
Just to illustrate this:
If they have sold 15,000,000 in 20 months, they're averaging 750,000 units per month.
Now let's be extra-generous and assume that they retroactively increased those sales from April by 50% for the next two years solid (by, for example, price drop). So their average volume would be 1,125,000 per month from March 08 through December 09.
That would mean that they were starting to push ~810k per month on the off-season, and having something like 2.7m units each month for both Nov. and Dec. (Let's just ignore the reality of March-June numbers for now to illustrate).
They still need to average 1,767,857 units per month for the next 7 years to actually make this 150m figure within the alloted 10 year time frame.
So they need yet another 50% sales increase after December 09.
That would mean something like ~1,296k per month on the off-season, and having something like 4.3m units per month for Nov&Dec. for the next 7 years (2010-2017)
An easier way to digest this might be that they would need to increase their sales volume to over 235% of their current levels by March 09, and then sustain for what basically amounts to an entire standard console cycle, for this to actually be the case.
I understand that price drops lead to sales bumps.....but just how big of an increase are we legitimately expecting to see here? Over 235%?
I'm not saying it's impossible, but....well.....come on. It ain't happening.
llTll said:you have been playing a gaming system :lol
honestly, Wii is nice system. i like it. but its not fair to compare it to higher end systems like PS3 and 360. you cant compare the Wii sales to PS3/360 just like how you dont compare PSP/DS sales to PS3/360.
Wii might be your fav system. and its all fine.
but if i ever was a nintendo fanboy, i cant come here and say " oh but my loved nintendo Wii console is kicking ur PS3/360 ass. "
do you understand the point i am trying to make?
kpop100 said:Hey I'm not saying it's probable or even possible. I was just stating there are more variables than you had presented earlier. And I still think you understate the effect of a price drop, although I do agree (and I even mentioned earlier) that I don't think the price will drop that fast.
Tobor said:I'm way late, but this is some high order of magnitude bullllllshit right here.
I know you're having trouble getting some logic and reason mixed in with your random thoughts, but the Wii is absolutely 100% competing with the 360 and the Wii. And it's crushing them both. People are buying Wii's to play video games on, same as the other two. You want to try and call me a noob now?
DonDepre said:I'm not completly sure about this.
I mean, all that Wiis used in gymns, in geryatrics or rehab, are counted as videogames consoles sold, even if the use is more "therapeutic" than gaming. It happens the same with the DS. DS sells a lot, everywhere. But if it's used only as a cooking manager, it's a videogame console?
With Wii don't happen too much, but with DS, i've seen some documentals about how wives are using the Ds, in japan, as cooking manager (months ago the cooking for everyone cames to west), face trainer, and similar things.
Yep, it's basicly a portable console, but, it's not getting, in some cases, more similar to an iPhone?
In the other way, PS3 should be examined, also, if the sells are from people that buy it as a console or simply as a BD player.
manueldelalas said:what??... oh.. junior...
DonDepre said:I'm not completly sure about this.
I mean, all that Wiis used in gymns, in geryatrics or rehab, are counted as videogames consoles sold, even if the use is more "therapeutic" than gaming. It happens the same with the DS. DS sells a lot, everywhere. But if it's used only as a cooking manager, it's a videogame console?
With Wii don't happen too much, but with DS, i've seen some documentals about how wives are using the Ds, in japan, as cooking manager (months ago the cooking for everyone cames to west), face trainer, and similar things.
Yep, it's basicly a portable console, but, it's not getting, in some cases, more similar to an iPhone?
In the other way, PS3 should be examined, also, if the sells are from people that buy it as a console or simply as a BD player.
DonDepre said:Well, that junior thing is a matter of time...
What I'm asking is... if iPhone gets a powerfull gaming machine, their sells will have to be considered in the same way as DS-PSP?
Where is the limit of a "gaming console only" or a "electronic device that also play games"?
yoopoo said:Don't forget the biggest non-gaming device around, the PSP.
DonDepre said:Well, that junior thing is a matter of time...
What I'm asking is... if iPhone gets a powerfull gaming machine, their sells will have to be considered in the same way as DS-PSP?
Where is the limit of a "gaming console only" or a "electronic device that also play games"?
kpop100 said:And it was already $199 at this point in it's lifespan too. I don't think price can be stated enough.