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[kswiston]

Good find.

Yep, "it's Star Wars though" only actually applies to certain territories. The brand is not big at all in other key areas.

See my edit.

The only places where Star Wars has a good shot at out-grossing Avatar are domestic, other English countries, Latin America + some of the smaller developing Asian markets. Perhaps China as well, but the Asian performance so far is making me think that Star Wars won't pass Avatar's $205M in China by much if it does.

 

[Soapbox Killer]

Can't blame me for trying.

No doubt.

Although I'm really confident about my prediction and here's why:
China's box-office is almost double what it was in 2010 when Avatar was released of there.

AND


Adjusted for inflation, even Attack of the Clones, (the lowest grossing Star Wars movie) with no 3D ticket sales made over $440 million US. TFA will sell far more tickets than Episode II

 

[JaseMath]

If it doesn't clear 3 billion WW, I'll eat cat food.

Will you drink cat urine?

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

why you guys had to make the thread disgusting?

 

[vinnygambini]

No doubt.

Although I'm really confident about my prediction and here's why:
China's box-office is almost double what it was in 2010 when Avatar was released of there.

AND


Adjusted for inflation, even Attack of the Clones, (the lowest grossing Star Wars movie) with no 3D ticket sales made over $440 million US. TFA will sell far more tickets than Episode II

There's been an influx of quality local films in the last few years in China that may hinder TFA's potential there.

Mission Impossible didn't double it's gross comparatively to its predecessor in spite of the growth in the marketplace.

 

[George Oscar Bluth II]

why you guys had to make the thread disgusting?

NeoGAF

 

[TheKeyPit]

It's sure looking good so far for TFA.

 

[massivekettle]

Betting on Star Wars hitting $3B worldwide (in its initial run) is about on par with betting that Xbox One will end the generation in the #1 spot worldwide. We already have enough info to know it isn't happening.

Opening day in South Korea was 27% of Age of Ultron's opening day. Ultron ended at 78M in South Korea. Even if TFA has especially good legs, and eventually hits 40% of Age of Ultron overall, you're looking at $31M in South Korea. Avatar made $105M in South Korea.

Avatar made $109M in Spain, $175M in France, $171M in Japan, and $162M in Germany. For comparison, Jurassic World made $25M, $41M, $75M, and $48M in those same countries. Even if TFA doubles JW's gross in all of those countries, we're looking at a >$400M deficit in just those 6 territories. China and Latin America isn't going to make that up.

But Ultron was heaving frontloaded, so you can't really apply linear maths to project TFA.

What's really going to kill TFA, ultimately, will be the strength of the USD. $2.7bn was always out of reach.

 

[gimmmick]

Box Office: 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' Hits Record $57 Million Thursday Night

 

[superdeluxe]

115-120 OD Likely.

Insanity.

 

[KINGofCRA5H]

@Reuters
BREAKING: Disney says ticket sales for Thursday night Star Wars screenings topped previous industry record

@Reuters
BREAKING: Disney says cumulative global sales for 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' near $130 million

.

 

[mcfrank]

Beat it by 31%

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

The previews put it already in the top 10 December opening weekends. lol

It will break the December record on OD.

 

[Ithil]

Star Wars is so Star Wars that it acts like a summer movie in winter.

 

[nOoblet16]

How much did Disney pay for the IP? 4 Billion? They'll have made it back + extra by the end of 2016

Here is a better question:

What is the MINIMUM the film needs to make opening weekend to not disappoint? My guess is anything under 220million domestic will be a huge disappointment to Disney.

End of 2016? Disney is predicted to get 5 billion from merchandise sale alone a lot earlier than that.

 

[Chamber]

.

But movies don't open huge in December. Holiday shopping and all that jazz.

 

[gimmmick]

But movies don't open huge in December. Holiday shopping and all that jazz.

Shop online while you wait in line (that's what I did while waiting in the theater last night lol).

 

[3N16MA]

Playing like a summer blockbuster in December.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

I'll hold myself back from bumping the Star Wars vs Avengers thread until we get the weekend totals on Monday.

 

[Sephzilla]

James Cameron woke up this morning and felt a slight disturbance in The Force. Then he went back to sleep and said "I'll get worried in two weeks"

 

[More_Badass]

Playing like a summer blockbuster in December.

Disney must have sacrificed to the weather gods for high 40s/low 50s and no snow on opening weekend

 

[Ithil]

But movies don't open huge in December. Holiday shopping and all that jazz.

To be a little fair, this is literally the first time such a thing has happened in the history of cinema. The biggest December opening of all time was only 84M, and that was in 2012, quite recently, and for the first successor to the LOTR trilogy, a massive deal.

 

[bananafactory]

57 million on Thursday

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/18/star-wars-the-force-awakens-thrills-fans-sets-records.html


God damn

 

[DopeyFish]

lol

The previews alone broke the Thursday all time record... Which won't count as they are including it with Friday gross

 

[FoneBone]

lol

The previews alone broke the Thursday all time record... Which won't count as they are including it with Friday gross

As I said the box office thread, it's kinda ridiculous to include preview screening as part of the next day's gross when they're starting as early as 7pm.

And that's not to say that the numbers shouldn't be considered impressive, but it's so blatantly a way of padding out "opening weekend".

 

[Soapbox Killer]

As I said the box office thread, it's kinda ridiculous to include preview screening as part of the next day's gross when they're starting as early as 7pm.

And that's not to say that the numbers shouldn't be considered impressive, but it's so blatantly a way of padding out "opening weekend".

Unless it makes more that 240 million this weekend, which it probably wont but close.

 

[bananafactory]

As I said the box office thread, it's kinda ridiculous to include preview screening as part of the next day's gross when they're starting as early as 7pm.

And that's not to say that the numbers shouldn't be considered impressive, but it's so blatantly a way of padding out "opening weekend".

Did Jurassic World also include the Thursday numbers for the OW total?

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Did Jurassic World also include the Thursday numbers for the OW total?

Yeah.

Thursday previews are a recent thing. They're basically meant to replace midnight screenings. The Force Awakens is getting a bit of an unfair advantage, in that usually the Thursday preview is just the one screening at 7pm (and sometimes a 9pm one) but Force Awakens basically carried through til this morning at a lot of theaters.

 

[freenudemacusers]

I'll hold myself back from bumping the Star Wars vs Avengers thread until we get the weekend totals on Monday.

Don't hurt em!

 

[diffusionx]

The fact that this movie is apparently really good will help it in all sorts of ways. To this day I'm confused as to why Avatar is the #1 movie of all time. Star Wars is good, it has a huge fanbase that has been waiting for a good SW flick, this movie's appeal stretches across generations, it's Christmas time, etc. I think it will have real legs. If a really good Star Wars can't beat Avatar I don't know what will.

 

[M.W.]

The fact that this movie is apparently really good will help it in all sorts of ways. To this day I'm confused as to why Avatar is the #1 movie of all time. Star Wars is good, it has a huge fanbase that has been waiting for a good SW flick, this movie's appeal stretches across generations, it's Christmas time, etc. I think it will have real legs. If a really good Star Wars can't beat Avatar I don't know what will.

Avatar 2

 

[Timu]

.

Yeah I read it's 129 million so that's about right...wow this movie.

 

[diffusionx]

Avatar 2

Does anyone care about Avatar as a franchise? I find that tough to believe.

 

[M.W.]

Deadline thinks 250-275

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

 

[Bobby Roberts]

No fucking way.

275?

In a single weekend?

I'm not seein that coming to fruition.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Deadline thinks 250-275

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

So no headlines of them screaming, "NOT A RECORD!" then?

 

[Chamber]

Good riddance to Jurassic World.

 

[Count Dookkake]

Wasn't so sure before, but after seeing the film and discussing it with series fans and newbs, I think Avatar will fall.







Lol, Ultron.

 

[DeathyBoy]

No fucking way.

275?

In a single weekend?

I'm not seein that coming to fruition.

We need you to make a ludicrous 'if it comes to fruition, I'll eat a bowl of Chewbacca's back hair' wager.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Did the newcomers you talked to like it more than the old-schoolers?

That's my experience so far.

 

[3N16MA]

250-275 would pretty much guarantee a new domestic record. I don't seeing it have a multiplier less than 3.

 

[Liquidsnake]

Good riddance to Jurassic World.

I will never in my wildest dreams understand how it made as much as it did.

 

[DieH@rd]

No matter what TFA makes this weekend [200-250], the next weekend will also be incredibly strong. I expect easy 400M+ by the time Christmas weekend is done.

I will never in my wildest dreams understand how it made as much as it did.

Lack of Transformers.

 

[TheXbox]

Are we talking domestic for these OW numbers? Like, how is that even possible? Isn't there a ceiling on these things? There's only so many theaters, man. Fuck.

 

[Futurematic]

Are we talking domestic for these OW numbers? Like, how is that even possible? Isn't there a ceiling on these things? There's only so many theaters, man. Fuck.

Domestic yes. Theatres are rolling 24 hours straight this weekend.

 

[Thaedolus]

I mean, I went by myself to an 8:15 AM screening. There's literally no other franchise I would ever do that for.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

My stupid-ass pie-in-the-sky scenario just got a tiny nudge, didn't it.

 

[DieH@rd]

Are we talking domestic for these OW numbers? Like, how is that even possible? Isn't there a ceiling on these things? There's only so many theaters, man. Fuck.

Only looking at theatre numbers is not good way to predict success/failure. Avengers got to ~207M opening weekend record with average sell rate of theatres at just 63%. There is a lot of room left for breaking records, the people just need to show up at higher numbers.

 

[Bloomers]

Ahh I found my original prediction from october. Can't believe I decided to lowball it.

OW: 210 mil
WW OW: 560 mil
DOM: 700mil
OS: 1.3 bil (not a record)
WW: 2 bil (not a record)

BOOK IT

New last min predicts, in light of Thurs showings:
OD: 130 mil
OW: 250 mil
WW OW : who knows lol

DOM: 700 mil +
OS: 1.5 mil +
WW: 2.2 mil +

 

[3N16MA]

Ahh I found my original prediction from october. Can't believe I decided to lowball it.

OW: 228M
Domestic: 810M
OS: 1.4B
WW: 2.210B

To think my domestic numbers might be low.