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[kswiston]

Mad max and creed set the bar stupid high this year

I'll be happy if it's better than the prequels or Jurassic World (which I thought was about on the same level as the Star Wars prequels).

Hell, Age of Ultron level of OK would be fine with me. I'm trying not to get myself too hyped, and go in expecting something I would call a good-great film.

 

[X05]

Any last predictions before the entire 1st page of OT is flooded with FA box office threads?

Might as well adjust my original prediction, which was:

OW: ~140M
Domestic total: ~600M
Worldwide total: ~1.7B

to:
OW: ~170M
Domestic total: ~660M
Worldwide total: ~1.8B
I wouldn't mind to be wrong though!

Spoiler

Seriously

Something to take in mind though, where I live Disney has prohibited cinemas to run any kind of special promotions or deals during the first week (including the opening weekend). If they set that rule worldwide, I'm guessing Disney is *really* gunning for a record.

 

[More_Badass]

Huh

Whoa...
Star Wars: The Force Awakens advanced ticket sales have crossed over $100 million already

Previous record was TDKR, with $25 million

 

[lastplayed]

The Force Awakens smashes NZ opening day record

The new Star Wars movie, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, has smashed New Zealand opening day box office records, taking in $1,567m in day one ticket sales.

Star Wars' New Zealand distributor, Sony Pictures, revealed the figures on Friday, saying they had smashed the previous record, set by The Avengers, which opened on April 25 2012, and collected $1,020m on its first day in cinemas.

Well I did my small part by seeing it twice already.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

I think the weird pet stat I've decided to keep an eye out for is whether or not this film will cross triple digits for three straight weekends.

The drops would have to be pretty fucking nuts, and the WOM would have to be a lot better than I've been seeing so far, though. But then again, newcomer/regular joe might be more appreciative of the Greatest Hits angle this movie is taking than someone who's already got all the albums memorized.

 

[kswiston]

The Force Awakens smashes NZ opening day record

Well I did my small part by seeing it twice already.

I think that the opening records (and possibly LTD records) are going down in most English countries. UK might be an exception due to their love of Bond.

I think the weird pet stat I've decided to keep an eye out for is whether or not this film will cross triple digits for three straight weekends.

I really think that the money required to hit $100M for 3 weekends is too crazy to consider plausible. Jurassic World "only" had a $54M third weekend and was sitting at a $500M total. To hit your pet numbers, and considering we would be looking at holiday grosses during the weekdays, you'd basically have to peg Star Wars at around $700-750M by Jan 3rd. And since movies don't just collapse into a black hole after new years, you'd probably be predicting around $1B domestic.

 

[JeffZero]

I think the weird pet stat I've decided to keep an eye out for is whether or not this film will cross triple digits for three straight weekends.

The drops would have to be pretty fucking nuts, and the WOM would have to be a lot better than I've been seeing so far, though. But then again, newcomer/regular joe might be more appreciative of the Greatest Hits angle this movie is taking than someone who's already got all the albums memorized.

I don't see it happening, for precisely the reasons you've stated. WOM would need to be stronger than the current going rate.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Basically, I'm wondering if WOM right now is lower than it would normally be, due to the number of high-level enthusiasts that have seen it already, whereas people who don't care near as much might leave the theater like "That was a really good movie. I see why people go apeshit for this Star Wars stuff"

I really think that the money required to hit $100M for 3 weekends is too crazy to consider plausible. Jurassic World "only" had a $54M third weekend and was sitting at a $500M total. To hit your pet numbers, and considering we would be looking at holiday grosses during the weekdays, you'd basically have to peg Star Wars at around $700-750M by Jan 3rd.

I don't think it's likely at all, but it's what I'm keeping an eye on.

I mean, I suck at math, but working backwards from 3rd weekend being 100 mil flat, what kind of weekend-to-weekend drops are we looking at if we get 230 by Monday? I know it's gotta be somewhere in the 20-30 range, right?

It's a mild winter, it feels like a legit media phenomenon, the 2nd weekend is Christmas weekend...

Again - don't think it's likely. But it's interesting to look at.

edit: It'd basically have to have weekend to weekend drops of no more than 35% for two straight weekends - and that's IF it clears 230 OW.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

Basically, I'm wondering if WOM right now is lower than it would normally be, due to the number of high-level enthusiasts that have seen it already, whereas people who don't care near as much might leave the theater like "That was a really good movie. I see why people go apeshit for this Star Wars stuff"

its weird because EVERYONE I know.. fans, co workers, family, friends all have tickets already purchased for the next week + so like who do I even tell to go see it?

 

[kswiston]

Basically, I'm wondering if WOM right now is lower than it would normally be, due to the number of high-level enthusiasts that have seen it already, whereas people who don't care near as much might leave the theater like "That was a really good movie. I see why people go apeshit for this Star Wars stuff"



I don't think it's likely at all, but it's what I'm keeping an eye on.

I mean, I suck at math, but working backwards from 3rd weekend being 100 mil flat, what kind of weekend-to-weekend drops are we looking at if we get 230 by Monday? I know it's gotta be somewhere in the 20-30 range, right?

It's a mild winter, it feels like a legit media phenomenon, the 2nd weekend is Christmas weekend...

Again - don't think it's likely. But it's interesting to look at.

edit: It'd basically have to have weekend to weekend drops of no more than 35% for two straight weekends - and that's IF it clears 230 OW.

Second weekend drop will be higher than 35% because we're probably going to see $50M+ in Thursday previews if the presale numbers are anything to go off of. Preview share of the first weekend was less than 10% for Avengers and Jurassic World. I'd expect previews to count for at least 20% of The Force Awakens first weekend. Possibly 25%.


To hit your numbers, you'd need something like:

$230M
$130M
$100M

Subtracting Previews, that would be a 28% drop on the weekend proper in W2, and a 23% drop in W3. Jurassic World was 44% and 49% not counting previews.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

I just need it to break the OW domestic record/make more money than Jurassic World, cuz fuck that movie.

 

[JeffZero]

I just need it to break the OW domestic record/make more money than Jurassic World, cuz fuck that movie.

TheKoolAidJurassicWorldHateShoto.

I didn't enjoy JW either, but eh. Such is life.

Edit: Whoops, I missed Bobby's post.

Basically, I'm wondering if WOM right now is lower than it would normally be, due to the number of high-level enthusiasts that have seen it already, whereas people who don't care near as much might leave the theater like "That was a really good movie. I see why people go apeshit for this Star Wars stuff"

I don't think it's likely at all, but it's what I'm keeping an eye on.

I mean, I suck at math, but working backwards from 3rd weekend being 100 mil flat, what kind of weekend-to-weekend drops are we looking at if we get 230 by Monday? I know it's gotta be somewhere in the 20-30 range, right?

That sounds about right. Disclaimer: I also suck at math. Quite a tag team we are.

I'm noticing some of my very-not-SW friends over in Europe are going crazy over this film. I think whether we see that for a full week or two and across the world is going to play the big role in where things go from here. Based on what I'm hearing, I know which of my local friends will rave and which of them may just rant.

 

[Forsaken82]

Opening weekend gross - $120 M

Domestic gross - $900 M

Worldwide gross - $3.6 B


Yes, I have high expectations for this movie.

Apparently not that high if you think its gonna do nearly half the opening weekend that Jurassic World did over arguably the busiest movie weekend of the year.

If I am not mistaken, Jurassic World opened to over 200 Million domestically.

 

[opoth]

TheKoolAidJurassicWorldHateShoto.

I didn't enjoy JW either, but eh. Such is life.

How is it kool aid hate if you concur? Did you drink it?

 

[JeffZero]

How is it kool aid hate if you concur? Did you drink it?

It isn't. I was referencing an inside joke. I've recently been informed JC hails from the same humble e-origins as I do, and I'm not yet sure if he's realized I'm the Jeff Zero from those parts.

Mainly I was just looking for a weird opportunity to reference the past with him

 

[ViewtifulJC]

I didn't even put two and two together until just now

JeffZero you mothafucka, we don't have to go back to Board8 until the next contest in 3 years

 

[JeffZero]

I didn't even put two and two together until just now

JeffZero you mothafucka, we don't have to go back to Board8 until the next contest in 3 years

The best feeling.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Would the fact the 2nd Friday of Star Wars' run be right ON Christmas Day make any sort of difference?

Hell, when was the last time a Christmas weekend actually started on a Friday?

 

[mcfrank]

Would the fact the 2nd Friday of Star Wars' run be right ON Christmas Day make any sort of difference?

Hell, when was the last time a Christmas weekend actually started on a Friday?

Sure, theaters typically have shorter hours on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, so it will be losing a Thursday night and Friday morning, but should more than make up for it with people being off work on Friday.

 

[JeffZero]

Would the fact the 2nd Friday of Star Wars' run be right ON Christmas Day make any sort of difference?

Hell, when was the last time a Christmas weekend actually started on a Friday?

I've always had a hunch that Disney planned things this way for a reason. Christmas is good for business, and they knew they had at least some kind of crowd-pleaser with Abrams and Kasdan at the helm. "Let's go see Star Wars" are five words Iger & Co are banking will be ushered often, and loudly, across the many families of the Western world next week.

And then the third week starts on New Year's. Yeah... this was planned, haha. I look forward to seeing how it pans out.

 

[George Oscar Bluth II]

Odeon cinemas had a huge ad right before the film started saying they are open on Christmas day. I can see some families going for a screening then.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

And then the third week starts on New Year's. Yeah... this was planned, haha. I look forward to seeing how it pans out.

Ha, shit, it didn't even occur to me the 3rd weekend was also New Year's Day.

Although I'm not sure New Year's Day gets the same sort of bump Christmas does.

How much of a bump does Christmas day typically see, anyway. Or is that just conventional box-office wisdom that isn't necessarily so conventional?

 

[CrichtonKicks]

Basically, I'm wondering if WOM right now is lower than it would normally be, due to the number of high-level enthusiasts that have seen it already, whereas people who don't care near as much might leave the theater like "That was a really good movie. I see why people go apeshit for this Star Wars stuff"



I don't think it's likely at all, but it's what I'm keeping an eye on.

I mean, I suck at math, but working backwards from 3rd weekend being 100 mil flat, what kind of weekend-to-weekend drops are we looking at if we get 230 by Monday? I know it's gotta be somewhere in the 20-30 range, right?

It's a mild winter, it feels like a legit media phenomenon, the 2nd weekend is Christmas weekend...

Again - don't think it's likely. But it's interesting to look at.

edit: It'd basically have to have weekend to weekend drops of no more than 35% for two straight weekends - and that's IF it clears 230 OW.

You are treating it like a summer blockbuster with "normal" weekdays. But the Christmas-New Years period is going to be a bonanza that will syphon business from the weekends. Like kswiston pointed out- those kind of drops combined with the higher than normal weekday business would put TFA on a track to clear a billion which is beyond what even the most optimistic people have predicted.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

You are treating it like a summer blockbuster with "normal" weekdays.

I've already said I don't think it's likely at all. I'm just kicking the hypothetical around because it's the one that seems the most interesting to me. I'm trying to figure out what kind of notches on the measuring stick it'd need to hit.

That the notches are super-outlandish makes sense. They'd absolutely need to be fucking nuts. It's just interesting to me to even see where they'd land on the yardstick since we're doing the theorycraft right now.

It's why I'm asking lots of questions instead of making statements.

 

[mcfrank]

I just checked 2 theaters near me. One has 25 showings before 1 am tonight. They are all sold out or sold out to the front 2 rows. The other has 18 showings sold out or sold out to the front two rows. There has never been anything like this. Selling out 25 showings at a single theater in 1 night? Insane.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

Ha, shit, it didn't even occur to me the 3rd weekend was also New Year's Day.

Although I'm not sure New Year's Day gets the same sort of bump Christmas does.

How much of a bump does Christmas day typically see, anyway. Or is that just conventional box-office wisdom that isn't necessarily so conventional?

Here is the last time Christmas was on a Friday: 2009

Sherlock Holmes and Avatar were on top.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2009-12-25&track=alvinandthechipmunksii.htm

 

[DopeyFish]

Would the fact the 2nd Friday of Star Wars' run be right ON Christmas Day make any sort of difference?

Hell, when was the last time a Christmas weekend actually started on a Friday?

When Avatar came out

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Here is the last time Christmas was on a Friday: 2009

Sherlock Holmes and Avatar were on top.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2009-12-25&track=alvinandthechipmunksii.htm

Thanks!

 

[kswiston]

Ha, shit, it didn't even occur to me the 3rd weekend was also New Year's Day.

Although I'm not sure New Year's Day gets the same sort of bump Christmas does.

How much of a bump does Christmas day typically see, anyway. Or is that just conventional box-office wisdom that isn't necessarily so conventional?

Last Friday Christmas was Avatar's second weekend I think. Not really much to go from using that for obvious reasons.

Christmas is typically a Top 5-10 single day gross of the year regardless of when it falls, so the hype there is real.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Thanks K-Swiss.

Does New Year's Day usually fall in that top 5, too? From personal experience, it never really occurs to me to go to a movie that day, whereas Christmas it's always a question as to whether or not I'm gonna. (Seeing Hateful Eight in 70mm this year, for example)

 

[kswiston]

Thanks K-Swiss.

Does New Year's Day usually fall in that top 5, too? From personal experience, it never really occurs to me to go to a movie that day, whereas Christmas it's always a question as to whether or not I'm gonna. (Seeing Hateful Eight in 70mm this year, for example)

New years is bigger than typical for whatever day it happens to fall on, but not bigger than Xmas. For instance, Jan 1st 2014 was bigger than every Wednesday in 2013 other than Jul 3rd, and X-mas, but X-mas was bigger than Jan 1st by 50%.

It doesn't help that no one bothers to release movies that week. I think this year is an exception with Hateful 8 going wide.

But I guess to answer your bigger question, every day between Dec 24 and Jan 1st is better than typical for holdovers. It's like Thanksgiving week on steroids.

 

[DopeyFish]

for winter releases... star wars will prove whether or not front loading (like on summer blockbusters) can be done

no movie has really been able to do it yet...

so far every movie that releases in this window really needs legs and good word of mouth

 

[CrichtonKicks]

for winter releases... star wars will prove whether or not front loading (like on summer blockbusters) can be done

no movie has really been able to do it yet...

so far every movie that releases in this window really needs legs and good word of mouth

For December? Yeah it has to be a special case- something so big that people work their holiday plans around it. The first Star Wars movie in a decade and the first with the original cast in 30 years can justify it. A more normal blockbuster probably couldn't and would need to rely on the holiday legs or just open in November where you can get a more conventional opening weekend and rest of run.

 

[Vault Dweller 111]

I just don't see how it beats Avatar.

IMO it will be like an Avengers movie. Hardcore fans geeking the fuck out (me included), setting opening weekend records, stuff like that. But the legs just won't be the same. Star Wars is certainly a big cultural thing. But there is still a very large group of people who don't really care to see some space fantasy movie, and those are the type of people who DO go to watch Titanic and Avatar. Totally different types of movies. That appeal to different people.

Superhero, fantasy, space, etc. type movies have a limit on how much they can make at the box office. That limit is whatever TFA ends up making. And I'm gonna guess it's less than 2.8 billion.

I think the real fight will be beating Titanic. A good estimate is 2 billion. So that will be an interesting race to watch.

I hope I'm wrong because it'd be cool for my favorite franchise to have the most successful movie ever, but I don't see it.

 

[DopeyFish]

Superhero, fantasy, space, etc. type movies have a limit on how much they can make at the box office.

i am curious to know what genre you think avatar falls under

 

[Vault Dweller 111]

i am curious to know what genre you think avatar falls under

Was rereading my post and face palmed.

Hopefully people catch my meaning.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

EDIT- Already addressed.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

I just don't see how it beats Avatar.

IMO it will be like an Avengers movie. Hardcore fans geeking the fuck out (me included), setting opening weekend records, stuff like that. But the legs just won't be the same. Star Wars is certainly a big cultural thing. But there is still a very large group of people who don't really care to see some space fantasy movie, and those are the type of people who DO go to watch Titanic and Avatar. Totally different types of movies. That appeal to different people.

Superhero, fantasy, space, etc. type movies have a limit on how much they can make at the box office. That limit is whatever TFA ends up making. And I'm gonna guess it's less than 2.8 billion.

I think the real fight will be beating Titanic. A good estimate is 2 billion. So that will be an interesting race to watch.

I hope I'm wrong because it'd be cool for my favorite franchise to have the most successful movie ever, but I don't see it.

Star Wars is a known quantity so, yeah, I doubt it will beat Avatar (just as I don't think Avatar 2 will beat Avatar). But it's also reductive of Star Wars itself. The original movie was the Avatar of it's time. Just 2 years before Jaws was the first film to pass $100 million at the domestic box office and Star Wars more than doubled it on initial theatrical run. It was the very definition of a four quadrant hit that got people of all ages in the seats.

So, no, I don't think TFA can beat Avatar because it would require a performance similar to ANH's original run. But I think there is an appeal to the franchise that goes beyond the typical blockbuster comic book movie.

 

[Abounder]

France led with $5.2 million, one of the best showings of all time and almost double the opening-day results of Jurassic World. It's also the biggest launch ever for a Disney film, and more than double the first day of the studio's Marvel tentpole, Avengers: Age of Ultron.

Force Awakens also landed in Italy on Wednesday, grossing an impressive $2 million. That's the best start for December.

The Disney and Lucasfilm release — placing No. 1 everywhere — smashed records in Sweden and Norway, scoring the biggest single industry day of all time with $1.7 million and $1.1 million, respectively. And it nabbed the biggest opening day ever in Belgium ($800,000), Finland ($600,000), the Netherlands ($800,000) and French-speaking Switzerland.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-star-wars-force-849779

Vive la France!

 

[wachie]

I just don't see how it beats Avatar.

IMO it will be like an Avengers movie. Hardcore fans geeking the fuck out (me included), setting opening weekend records, stuff like that. But the legs just won't be the same. Star Wars is certainly a big cultural thing. But there is still a very large group of people who don't really care to see some space fantasy movie, and those are the type of people who DO go to watch Titanic and Avatar. Totally different types of movies. That appeal to different people.

Superhero, fantasy, space, etc. type movies have a limit on how much they can make at the box office. That limit is whatever TFA ends up making. And I'm gonna guess it's less than 2.8 billion.

I think the real fight will be beating Titanic. A good estimate is 2 billion. So that will be an interesting race to watch.

I hope I'm wrong because it'd be cool for my favorite franchise to have the most successful movie ever, but I don't see it.

It has a very good chance of outgrossing Avatar in domestic even with shitty legs. The overseas bo is a different animal as it has a lot of other factors in play.

 

[Soapbox Killer]

Its the first "True" sequel to the biggest IP of all time. Its appeal surpasses Avatar by some margin.

200 million by Monday is a foregone conclusion.

Im thinking 450 million by New Years Day.

700 million by February.

That's when itll get interesting.

I think it will settle in the mid 7s close to 800.

The WW box office will be desimated. The market is far bigger than 7 years ago. 3billion

 

[Vault Dweller 111]

Its the first "True" sequel to the biggest IP of all time. Its appeal surpasses Avatar by some margin.

200 million by Monday is a foregone conclusion.

Im thinking 450 million by New Years Day.

700 million by February.

That's when itll get interesting.

I think it will settle in the mid 7s close to 800.

The WW box office will be desimated. The market is far bigger than 7 years ago. 3billion

Nah

 

[JeffZero]

The Force is not Awakens-ing to three billion dollars worldwide.

 

[kswiston]

It has a very good chance of outgrossing Avatar in domestic even with shitty legs.

I wouldn't say that. Massive Thursday previews are going to make high first weekend multipliers harder to get, even if WOM is the same.

For argument's sake, lets say this weekend sees $50M in previews and $230M total. The weekend total minus previews would be $180M. The film would need to gross $710M after previews to beat Avatar. That's a 3.94x weekend multiplier setting aside Thursday previews.

Go back through some of the bigger December openings and do the same calculation. Some easily make that (The Hobbit, Avatar obviously). Some don't (Desolation of Smaug, I Am Legend, Sherlock Holmes). If the second group is shitty December legs, The Force Awakens will need better than shitty legs to top Avatar.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

Its the first "True" sequel to the biggest IP of all time. Its appeal surpasses Avatar by some margin.

200 million by Monday is a foregone conclusion.

Im thinking 450 million by New Years Day.

700 million by February.

That's when itll get interesting.

I think it will settle in the mid 7s close to 800.

The WW box office will be desimated. The market is far bigger than 7 years ago. 3billion

Wanna place an avatar bet on that? If you're right, you can choose my avatar to wear for a year. If you're wrong, I get to choose your avatar to wear for a year.

I miss Pheonix Dark's old avatar.

 

[freenudemacusers]

Oh shit bros avatar bets!!!

 

[kswiston]

Betting on Star Wars hitting $3B worldwide (in its initial run) is about on par with betting that Xbox One will end the generation in the #1 spot worldwide. We already have enough info to know it isn't happening.

Opening day in South Korea was 27% of Age of Ultron's opening day. Ultron ended at 78M in South Korea. Even if TFA has especially good legs, and eventually hits 40% of Age of Ultron overall, you're looking at $31M in South Korea. Avatar made $105M in South Korea.

Avatar made $109M in Spain, $175M in France, $171M in Japan, and $162M in Germany. For comparison, Jurassic World made $25M, $41M, $75M, and $48M in those same countries. Even if TFA doubles JW's gross in all of those countries, we're looking at a >$400M deficit in just those 6 territories. China and Latin America isn't going to make that up.

 

[Soapbox Killer]

Place an avatar bet on "Avatar"? There is a kinda poetry to that.

However I just got here and I would hate to replace my girl with with some new ish before my seat gets warm. Respectfully declined my friend.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

Can't blame me for trying.

 

[JeffZero]

Opening day in South Korea was 27% of Age of Ultron's opening day. Ultron ended at 78M in South Korea. Even if TFA has especially good legs, and eventually hits 40% of Age of Ultron overall, you're looking at $31M in South Korea. Avatar made $105M in South Korea.

Good find.

Yep, "it's Star Wars though" only actually applies to certain territories. The brand is not big at all in other key areas.