The Artisan
Member
Gemüsepizza;240768848 said:
The new hardware is still a Ps4 though.
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With XB1X and PS4 Pro. Can we expect this generation to last longer?
- Thread starter batman2million
- Start date
The new hardware is still a Ps4 though.
gimmmick
Member
Whether anyone likes it or not, this generation is going to last us 8 years. I don't expect anything happening till March 2020. (when the console get's announced). As for having the most powerful system, up until this generation sony never gave a damn of which system was the most powerful. I don't think they want to lose the 60 million install base that they have in present day to sell software.
The Artisan
Member
i hope you're right
12Dannu123
Member
Good luck doing that. That's almost impossible considering that you won't be able to run PS4 Games on a small farm factor and without talking about X86 efficiency problems.
Jaguar Victory
Member
They learned their lesson. They released mid gen refreshes.
What lesson? 360 was a success overall, and PS3 gained steam in the later years.
reptilescorpio
Member
They are saddled with X1 & PS4 so no, expect PS5 in 2019
Hoho for breakfast
Member
Next year we'll potentially see Red Dead, Anthem, God Of War, Spider-Man, Metro, Days Gone, Death Stranding, Kingdom Hearts 3, and The Last Of Us 2.
That will almost certainly mean there won't be any more big games from at least Rockstar and Naughty Dog this generation after that.
Some of those will probably fall into 2019, so I don't think there's any way they'll release new consoles until Fall 2019 at the earliest. And since that's when I'd like to see a new console, but they never seem to come out soon enough for me, I would expect a new console a year later in Fall 2020.
So, 7 years.
That will almost certainly mean there won't be any more big games from at least Rockstar and Naughty Dog this generation after that.
Some of those will probably fall into 2019, so I don't think there's any way they'll release new consoles until Fall 2019 at the earliest. And since that's when I'd like to see a new console, but they never seem to come out soon enough for me, I would expect a new console a year later in Fall 2020.
So, 7 years.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Not remotely true. Game developers will just target cross-gen games again like they did at the beginning of this gen. until the new gen console installed bases are large enough to support sales of the latest games alone (i.e. usually by fall of year two).
PS4Pro/XB1X are still crippled by Jaguar CPUs. There's little chance that devs on PS5 will have any desire to be held back throughout next-gen by such a shitty CPU... no chance.
Perhaps the same way it was done during the 360/ps3 to x1/ps4 transition.
This is what I'm expecting and hoping for.
This is why I said MS might have a better head start going into next gen. The XBO X specs vs the PS4 Pro's.
I wouldnt expect them to make them work for the 2013 machines. From Pro, XBO X is better.
Lovely Salsa
Banned
I hope we see next gen 2019
Just look at xbox one x, nothing during their game announcements impressed me visually, besides Anthem. And thats not because its at 4k res....
Just look at xbox one x, nothing during their game announcements impressed me visually, besides Anthem. And thats not because its at 4k res....
But last September Mark Cerny said PS4 Pro was arriving mid generation, and that was 3 years after PS4 launched. Another 3 years from then means 2019.
I think PS5 will probably arrive Fall 2020.
However, there are a few arguments to be made for 2021 or 2022 and that being, having access to a 5nm process using Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. It might be the only way to get a truly huge leap in CPU/GPU over PS4 Pro and Xbox One X.
2021+ also might mean having access to not overly expensive HBM3, hopefully anyway. HBM3 would allow for several TB/sec memory bandwidth with 64GB and won't be as expensive to produce as HBM2 is currently. HBM3 is meant to first be available for PC cards in 2020.
Anyway, there are both good *and* bad reasons to start the next gen in any given year, be that 2019, 2020, 2021, or later.
CoffeeKillquest
Member
As someone who just bought a pro and is thinking about buying an Xbox one s I would like to see this gen last till at least 2020. But who know how it will actually play out.
You know, Soapbox Killer, this really is the last gen for us.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Both Pro and Xb1X are gimped by Jaguar CPUs.
If next-gen consoles go big on the CPU with a full fat 4-8 core Zen-based CPU on a 7nm process, there's next to no chance that the mid-gen consoles will continue to be supported throughout the rest of the new gen.
Tbh, next-gen could be looking at consoles with beefy Zen-based CPUs and 13-15TFLOPs GPUs. Why on earth would anyone want these new machine to be held back by 3-4 year old hardware with exceptionally shitty netbook CPUs?
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
AmyS, this is a unique take. But I suspect neither Sony nor MS would want to wait for 5nm when the 7nm TSMC volume production process will be mature by 2019.
Depending on the target performance of next-gen machines (i'm hoping for around 15TFLOPs), GDDR6 chips at 16Gbps should provide enough memory bandwidth to feed a GPU at that level. I'm not sure that HBM would ever really be cheap enough for console adoption. Also having the HBM stacks on die might limit fabrication options, which wouldn't be desirable for console makers who will want to be able to shop around for the best price.
Also, there an argument that launching at 7nm gives you a nice easy shrink to 5nm in two years time for you slim unit. Whereas, with 5nm getting closer to the physical limits of existing lithographic process tech, you may not have anywhere to go after that, or at least for a very long time (even the mighty Intel is feeling the heat here).
Rumblebones
Banned
Sony is making money hand over fist on a console that is showing no signs of stopping.
We're not getting a PS5 until 2020 at the earliest.
We're not getting a PS5 until 2020 at the earliest.
All reasonable points, especially going for 7nm at first, because there's only one shink left within a reasonable amount of time, 5nm a couple years later.
I'd hope that Sony and Microsoft aim for 7nm+ (aka true 7nm) rather than vanilla 7nm which is really more like 10nm, in the same sense that 14/16nm is similar to 20nm.
therealbigrich
Member
Speaking of gens I think MS not doing any more "generations" . I think they will make a Xbox one X2 in 2019 with ryzen CPU and bump in gpu and kill off the Xbox one S.
new consoles are indicative sony and MS aren't ready to wrap things up for another year or three but i doubt the Pro and 1X will in and of themselves extend the gen's life. they're still tethered to base hardware requirements so you're still only going to get so much mileage out of them
seentursch
Member
They will build another box when it comes time to cut off support for OG Xbox one and PS4.
That's really PR speak IMO.
Microsoft will have another console, but not before 2020 or 2021. It would be suicide for them to launch yet another new console just two years after Xbox One X, even though Xbox One X is still tethered to Xbox One,
Xbox One S and Xbox One X will remain Microsoft's consoles through the rest of this decade.
Earliest Microsoft would have a new console is late 2020, but I think they're more likely to have new & more powerful consoles at 4 year intervals, not including slim revisions.
2013: Durango / Xbox One.
2017: Scorpio / Xbox One X
2021: Xbox ???? (this will be 8 years after Xbox One and PS4 released)
HellofaMouse
Member
Looking at pro and x, I would say it'll last untill 2020 at least , but the whole gaming industry was on a halt at the end of last gen cuz it lasted so damn long, so who knows.
Unlike last gen though, sales dont seem like they are gonna slow down in the next 2 years because unlike last gen, there are alot of diverse and exciting games coming out this time around.
Unlike last gen though, sales dont seem like they are gonna slow down in the next 2 years because unlike last gen, there are alot of diverse and exciting games coming out this time around.
hogendaz85
Member
Im with you. I feel like most times people don't even consider those very realistic points.
Who cares if technology is growing faster, the tool sets need time to mature to make use of the hardware.
therealbigrich
Member
Everyone will have different opinions on what's right or wrong .maybe every 4 is what's best and a new Xbox one will come then but I do think they will keep it connected to Xbox one .
I doubt it will be connected to Xbox One and therefore, be limited to games that have to run on the 2013 console.
While I am sure the next Xbox will be backward compatible with all Xbox One games (including Scorpio upgraded games) but at some point, games cannot be held back by the Jaguar CPUs and the original Xbox One hardware. I think Microsoft will keep going forward with 4x to 5x more power every 4 years. The names won't matter but Xbox Two X in 2025 will be tied to Xbox Two in 2021. Xbox Two and Xbox Two X will play their own games in addition to all Xbox One games.
Dlacy13g
Member
I think the notion of generations of console kinda died with PS4 Pro and more importantly Xbox One X. I think these consoles are a bridge between this generation and the next.
System architecture will be done in a way to allow continuation of compatibility. The new gen will consist of games that can run on newest hardware in about 3 yrs time but also can run on PS4 Pro / Xbox One X as a min spec machine for the platform but they will cut out the lowest spec Xbox One S/PS4 base models.
System architecture will be done in a way to allow continuation of compatibility. The new gen will consist of games that can run on newest hardware in about 3 yrs time but also can run on PS4 Pro / Xbox One X as a min spec machine for the platform but they will cut out the lowest spec Xbox One S/PS4 base models.
Exactly, if they wanted an early gen reboot it would have happened differently.
Costs are high, and player populations need not be fragmented now that the consoles use PC architecture. Lowest common denominator will be the philosophy going forward I think.
SimpleCRIPPLE
Member
Doubt the performance jump necessary to justify a new generation of hardware will be cheap enough by then.
Soul of the Beast
Member
Generation doesn't end until the machines are literally struggling to run the latest Battlefield, Crysis, GTA level games.
So far the OG PS4 is still doing very good, third parties games like RE7, Battlefield 1, For Honor all look fantastic and runs pretty well on the consoles, I see NO ONE complaining about the graphics or the performance on these new PS4/XBO releases.
Even I feel like my PS4 is holding up perfectly fine, I don't even feel like I need a PS4 Pro, let alone PS5...
You do not move on to the next generation until the masses feel like their machines are old and weak. That's how business work.
This generation can last another 5 years and I would have no problem with it.
So far the OG PS4 is still doing very good, third parties games like RE7, Battlefield 1, For Honor all look fantastic and runs pretty well on the consoles, I see NO ONE complaining about the graphics or the performance on these new PS4/XBO releases.
Even I feel like my PS4 is holding up perfectly fine, I don't even feel like I need a PS4 Pro, let alone PS5...
You do not move on to the next generation until the masses feel like their machines are old and weak. That's how business work.
This generation can last another 5 years and I would have no problem with it.
PeterOliver
Member
I fully anticipate another revision each from XBOX and Playstation. They can't even do 4k properly yet in intense games, so why not squeak out another 2 years with the same giant game libraries.
Playstation Ultimate and XBOX XS incoming 2020.
Playstation Ultimate and XBOX XS incoming 2020.
Koutsoubas
Member
I believe from next year games will start dropping to 720p on OG PS4/XO.
No way the added fidelity like Anthem's can run on these consoles
So probably new generation is 2 years away
No way the added fidelity like Anthem's can run on these consoles
So probably new generation is 2 years away
Astral Dog
Member
Thats right
Head.spawn
Junior Member
2023.
You know it's true.
You know it's true.
Allonym
There should be more tampons in gaming
I think and hope that this generation lasts longer because of the advent of the Pro/X. Some developers have only put out 1 game or none at all. I'd hope we receive at least 2 games from the likes Naughty Dog, Sony Santa Monica and Sucker Punch. So until that happens and technology reaches a point to where its a large enough jump to what would be done on that tech can't be replicated on Pro/X and is affordable, then and only then should we have new consoles.
Deputy Moonman
Member
There's almost no way MS lets Sony release the PS5, assuming it incorporates Ryzen tech, without having their own counter release. MS won't make up any ground by waiting, and, if the PS5 does release on its own, MS can kiss the next generation good-bye too. The only way MS climbs back into the console race is by releasing a good console at a good price with some good exclusives to coincide with the PS5's release. Or at least that is the way I see it. You have to sway consumers at the beginning of a generation, not in the middle when it's too late. And the longer Sony takes to release the PS5, the better shape MS will be in when next gen does come around. I think Q4 2019 is very doable. Announcements begin at E3 next year followed by release in a little over a year after that. 2020 at the absolute latest, but 3 years away from the end of this year seems really really... really............ long.