What lesson did they learn? For Sony especially sales didn't even really pick up until 3-4 years after launch.
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With XB1X and PS4 Pro. Can we expect this generation to last longer?
- Thread starter batman2million
- Start date
What lesson did they learn? For Sony especially sales didn't even really pick up until 3-4 years after launch.
IINM TSMC just disclosed their 2nd gen 7nm with EUV starts volume at 2019. So we're still possibly looking at mobile first, then premium GPUs that can absorb the yields, then only price-sensitive console APUs.
Maybe GF seems faster, though they have a very poor track record.
Shin
Banned
That's basically 7nm+, SoC's for mobile are far less complex and these corporation's have different and a handful of fabs to cater all segments.
Either GloFo/TSMC is fine really, IIRC PS4's APU was created by the latter (I could be mistaken though).
16k per eye and 300Hz (as fast a the eye of a bee IIRC)
or some shit like thathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjVKsvcVP8Y bad video but it gives you and idea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkU0bjZwJ0o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkliKYtR2sw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaLzb3M9bvE plus we don't have all these funky stuff yet and proper looking trees instead of cardboard ones (can download the source from the link)
Lol how many more K's until it becomes redundant?
To me 4k is pretty damn good. Big TVs will have to get a whole lot bigger for 8k to make a difference. At 70-80" 4k is the sweet spot.
The Jason
Member
The end of the console cycle is the most profitable time for console manufactures and publishers.
PS4 Pro and Xbox 1X are definitely intended to extend the console cycle.
Looks like its gonna be 2020 to me
Honestly the best games come out in the 5th, 6th, and 7th year of a console generation. Any earlier than 2020 and developers would have to start moving projects (that are a couple years out) to the next generation soon.
As a PS4 Pro owner I dont mind at all
PS4 Pro and Xbox 1X are definitely intended to extend the console cycle.
Looks like its gonna be 2020 to me
Honestly the best games come out in the 5th, 6th, and 7th year of a console generation. Any earlier than 2020 and developers would have to start moving projects (that are a couple years out) to the next generation soon.
As a PS4 Pro owner I dont mind at all
ronaldthump
Member
2020.
Sony & Microsoft aren't going to use ARM CPUs, they're going to use x86 again, almost certainly.
Shin
Banned
Most likely but not for the reasons you mentioned IMO, they are going to hit their 100m+ mark. Investors are going to eat that shit up like no tomorrow, they could release a PS5 next year or even 2019.
But that would leave the PS4 with 4 more years on the market, you'd be hard pressed to sell the newer model that's more expensive when consumers are price conscience.
That would create a situation similar to PS4/PS4P/XB1S/XBOX, the cheaper model will sell more, with that in mind I'm thinking late 2020. Sony needs to stop this 10 year shit, 8 years of support is enough.
AMD is in dire financial shape and nobody else is allowed to use x86, so it can be a shaky proposition to count on them
The ARM-based Tegra X1 really punched above its weight for Nintendo too
MilkyJoe
Member
Shin
Banned
PlayStation 1 / December 1995 - March 2005
PlayStation 2 / March 2000 - December 2012 // 4 years, 4 months
PlayStation 3 / November 2006 - May 2017 // 6 years, 8 months
PlayStation 4 / November 2013 - ??? 202? // 7 years, 0 months
PS1 was 10 years on the market
PS2 was 12 years on the market
PS3 was 11 years on the market
2020 might be the launch year for PS5, 7 years after PS4 while the latter stays in production till 2023/2025.
The only oddball was PS3 but that's because they were bleeding money, no reason to think with them winning like the other generations that they'll prolong it.
Keep in mind that prior or after a new console is launched Sony's focus will shift to developing countries (India, Brazil, etc etc so they'll still sell buckets of PS4's).
I don't think the console itself matters, it's about locking players in their eco-system, a new console helps with that especially since they are interested in the PC crowd.
Nothing speaks more to such players than a native 4K machine they can get for cheap instead of a $1000-2000 PC, it's all about the games and that's something they always had.
The big money is from services, PS+, games on PSN, they are probably selling PS4 Slim at a loss because revenue from their Network Services off-sets their loss on hardware.
PlayStation 2 / March 2000 - December 2012 // 4 years, 4 months
PlayStation 3 / November 2006 - May 2017 // 6 years, 8 months
PlayStation 4 / November 2013 - ??? 202? // 7 years, 0 months
PS1 was 10 years on the market
PS2 was 12 years on the market
PS3 was 11 years on the market
2020 might be the launch year for PS5, 7 years after PS4 while the latter stays in production till 2023/2025.
The only oddball was PS3 but that's because they were bleeding money, no reason to think with them winning like the other generations that they'll prolong it.
Keep in mind that prior or after a new console is launched Sony's focus will shift to developing countries (India, Brazil, etc etc so they'll still sell buckets of PS4's).
I don't think the console itself matters, it's about locking players in their eco-system, a new console helps with that especially since they are interested in the PC crowd.
Nothing speaks more to such players than a native 4K machine they can get for cheap instead of a $1000-2000 PC, it's all about the games and that's something they always had.
The big money is from services, PS+, games on PSN, they are probably selling PS4 Slim at a loss because revenue from their Network Services off-sets their loss on hardware.
Irishonion
Member
2020 is such a perfect time.
KingNoLife
Banned
The next generation hinges on AMD's Ryzen being small enough to fit, and their new GPU being a significant upgrade (which is not happening yet).
I'm betting on 2019 at the earliest, more likely 2020. Any earlier and it would cost too much to have an upgrade worthy of a next generation.
I'm betting on 2019 at the earliest, more likely 2020. Any earlier and it would cost too much to have an upgrade worthy of a next generation.
Sad Affleck
Member
That doesn't make much sense. Customers who want the best aren't as conservative with price as the rest of the market is. It is impossible for any console to match the power of a high-end PC so that part of the customer base will still gravitate towards PC. I'm sure many of those customers also bought a PS4 Pro to play Sony's exclusives at the best possible quality but the important question is whether these people started buying third-party games on Pro instead of their PC. That would be the big gain for Sony, luring in the PC whales.
Shin
Banned
It's a niche market but it is there, that crowd that love new electronics and all that.
Have to keep them enticed also or they'll look elsewhere, a new hardware with the games to boot can do that.
Probably more 4k TV's in homes than 4k monitors (assumption) as I keep reading that people are using their TV's as monitors.
In regards to AMD their CPU side of things seems to be doing fine, they knocked it out of the park with EPYC, Ryzen is a good foundation for Zen 2/3 (a needed one).
And they have the experience in creating APU's, it's the GPU side of things that's more worrisome.
There's nothing wrong with that statement.
ByWatterson
Member
At what point does the computing power available outstrip that which could be used in a cost-effective way?
In other words, how far away are we from simply not needing much more? We're not there yet, of course, but I feel like we're getting closer (as we have with smartphones and non-gaming PCs).
In other words, how far away are we from simply not needing much more? We're not there yet, of course, but I feel like we're getting closer (as we have with smartphones and non-gaming PCs).
12Dannu123
Member
Well unfortunately Sony and Microsoft are stuck with them regardless to keep compatibility.
Though since Xbox games are run inside a VM, I think they'll be able to shift to different architectures. Sony however is a different story.
Also AMD is held hostage and no one can buy them, since it'll get rid of the unique advantage they have. The we also have the fact that OG X86-64 patents expire soon.
SolarMystic
Member
Earliest we see new consoles is 2019, latest is 2020. Anything beyond that would be like someone still using flip phones today.
Shrike_Priest
Member
I think they have incentives to push this as far as they can.
My bet is that they'll quietly worsen support for the base models. Remember the end of the PS3 cycle? Games were pushing the hardware to its knees and framerates were dropping to 25-ish. Hell even TLOU had some real annoying framedrops. I think developers and publishers will eventually start pushing for the PRO/Scorpio-models as their baseline, with anyone left on the "budget model" having to bear some worse performance. Sony can say it gives developers "freedom" or whatnot, and blame it on them, and they can say that the base game is being developed for all platforms, including PC and that each console version gets as much fidelity as is possible.
Performance-driven gamers will move towards the PRO/Scorpio as they either get fed up with bad performance or replace dying OG consoles. And your average Joe-FIFACOD probably doesn't even know the difference and can stay on the base model. Maybe we'll see less checkerboarding, or more "choose resolution or fidelity"-options on the PRO models to keep them in line.
I think that's kindof the plan. Keep players from bleeding to PC as the performance lags by giving a speed bump, while giving some nice PR. I see no other reason for Sony and MS to push a second console release into the cycle if it isn't intended to lengthen the overall cycle.
I really hope they're holding out for some big leaps. PC can chug along all it wants and consoles can be holding "game development back." I think the end of last gen had some of the more interesting game releases of a long time. And, then, sometime around 2020/2021, the flood gates will open with a proper shift in capabilities again.
My bet is that they'll quietly worsen support for the base models. Remember the end of the PS3 cycle? Games were pushing the hardware to its knees and framerates were dropping to 25-ish. Hell even TLOU had some real annoying framedrops. I think developers and publishers will eventually start pushing for the PRO/Scorpio-models as their baseline, with anyone left on the "budget model" having to bear some worse performance. Sony can say it gives developers "freedom" or whatnot, and blame it on them, and they can say that the base game is being developed for all platforms, including PC and that each console version gets as much fidelity as is possible.
Performance-driven gamers will move towards the PRO/Scorpio as they either get fed up with bad performance or replace dying OG consoles. And your average Joe-FIFACOD probably doesn't even know the difference and can stay on the base model. Maybe we'll see less checkerboarding, or more "choose resolution or fidelity"-options on the PRO models to keep them in line.
I think that's kindof the plan. Keep players from bleeding to PC as the performance lags by giving a speed bump, while giving some nice PR. I see no other reason for Sony and MS to push a second console release into the cycle if it isn't intended to lengthen the overall cycle.
I really hope they're holding out for some big leaps. PC can chug along all it wants and consoles can be holding "game development back." I think the end of last gen had some of the more interesting game releases of a long time. And, then, sometime around 2020/2021, the flood gates will open with a proper shift in capabilities again.
brickarts295
Member
PS5 in 2019( 3 years after Pro would make sense, since Pro came out 3 years after PS4)
Xbox NEXT in 2020
Xbox NEXT in 2020
crazy monkey
Banned
2022 my guess. Give developer more time. Gaming becomes cheaper.
Bucket-o-roadkill
Member
They're going to be selling Xbox 1 X for 499 bucks at the end of 17, it would be a 32x Sega style fuck up to then expect the next xbox to be snapped up just a couple of years later (Especially with Microsoft and their track record of dropping current gen consoles like hot turds). No way, surely. The pro isn't that much older.
MilkyJoe
Member
20/21 for PS5
21/22 for X2
Why do you want a new one so soon? let the tech mature and you get a better box for your buck.
And this too
Shin
Banned
It will be mature in 2019, unless you want to wait on 7nm+, then what's from stopping them at that and not wait for 5nm or 3nm or 1nm?
2021/2022 is 8 to 9 years after the PS4/XB1 launched, let's not make it worse than it already is.
Console generations lasts way too long, PC is moving, mobile phones are moving just as fast why should consoles which is the cheapest among the lot lasts longer?
The old consoles can still be on the market and they'll just be cheaper and cheaper, but there are those that like new shiny toys and what they bring to the table.
There's no room for Jaguar to mature anymore. I want more physics, more on-screen characters, better AI. Don't care about 4K, 8K, 16K. But the Jaguar is really limiting game development.
MilkyJoe
Member
Im taking about Ryzen
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Shu is following my thread, mods closed it now though.
There's a lot of noise as of late regarding the PS5, can't help but feel something is up.
Of course, although we're unlikely to start hearing rumours and details about the designs until next year.
I think you're right on the launch and manufacturing process though. I'm expecting a late 2019 launch for PS5.
It'll be a Zen+ based CPU and Navi-GPU, possible with 32GB (i.e. 2 stacks) of HBM3 with 1+TB/s memory bandwidth or alternatively 16GB GDDR6 with 512GB/s mem. bw (depending on price).
The real question will be how much GPU they'll be able to fit within their silicon budget and at what clockrate they'll clock the GPU to fit within their TDP.
Shu is following my thread, mods closed it now though.
There's a lot of noise as of late regarding the PS5, can't help but feel something is up.
OMG what? Haha, that's awesome.
Shu, please talk with Cerny and look into HBM3 aka HBMx
Shin
Banned
I'd love for them (MS/Sony) to take a "small" hit and deliver kickass specs, akin to what they are probably doing now with PS4 Slim.
Make it back through services, which they are probably doing with the R&D for PS4/Pro.
A man can dream...
Not going to happen.
7nm+ is true 7nm. Regular 7nm is more like 10nm. Given Dev cost and time of development and available technology/price 2020/2021 is ideal.
Edit: also what memory solution? 2019 is too soon for HBM3. Next gen needs at least 32GB.
Shin
Banned
I wonder why people keep saying 7nm EUV is true 7nm, such a weird statement ...
32Gb most definitely that and CPU has priority for me above the GPU, GDDR6 will take up a lot of space but it has been done on the base PS4.
TrueOutlook
Neo Member
I wouldn't be expecting another generation until at least 2020, although 2019 is a slight possibility. With the amount of time required to make games nowadays, a longer generation is to be required for developers to get their moneys worth out of the systems.