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With XB1X and PS4 Pro. Can we expect this generation to last longer?
- Thread starter batman2million
- Start date
MikeE21286
Member
Id say 2020 at the latest. I dont know if Ps4 Pro makes it that far though. They probably should be first mover at that point
I even venture to say that all PS5 games until PS5 Pro comes out will work on Ps4 Pro at least. Maybe even Slim too.
Then when PS5 Pro comes out they probably phase out PS4 Slim support.
I even venture to say that all PS5 games until PS5 Pro comes out will work on Ps4 Pro at least. Maybe even Slim too.
Then when PS5 Pro comes out they probably phase out PS4 Slim support.
JayhawkerStL
Banned
The question is really for Sony to answer. Microsoft is set up in a position that they now only need to plan on power upgrades. They've proven adept at upgrading their OS and dashboard and adding features to the current OS. When the Ps5 drops, all Microsoft will have to do is drop in a more powerful console and keep on keeping on.
Will Sony try to mark a new generation by making the PS5 a brand new system in which nothing carries over? I mean, they seem like they thought that was a good plan, which allows them to charge their customers multiple times for the same games, whether it is remasters or their streaming game service.
So yeah, when the PS5 drops, you will be able to download and play your XB1 launch titles on the new Xbox console that comes out. Will Sony let you do the same with Knack?
Sword Of Doom
Member
Development cycles of games are so long now that generation need to be longer.
Around 7 years seems right
Around 7 years seems right
ShadowFox08
Member
The big question is how powerful of a console can we make 3 years from now based off the the trend that is following since 2013 when ps4 came out? Seems like its slowing down a bit. It took 3 years to get a 2.3x more powerful GPU of PS4, and 4 years to make a 3.33x more powerful GPU than PS4, but also with only 50% more memory and the CPU was about a 40% to 50% increase as well.
Unless something changes in moore's law like quantum computing , I think we probably won't get higher than 10TFLOPs in 2019-2020 fall for less than $400-500. CPU and RAM need to catch up with GPU as well.
Unless something changes in moore's law like quantum computing , I think we probably won't get higher than 10TFLOPs in 2019-2020 fall for less than $400-500. CPU and RAM need to catch up with GPU as well.
IMHO Q4 2020 is the soonest time (not the latest) that might be reasonable considering everything, especially game development cycles. Not to mention technology advances and pricing.
It also might make the difference of being able to manufacture chips on 7nm+ rather than the first generation 7nm which is really more like 10nm.
It also might make the difference of being able to manufacture chips on 7nm+ rather than the first generation 7nm which is really more like 10nm.
i don't think there will be conventional 'crossgen' anymore. I kinda expect PS5 to be fully BC with Pro and PS4. So TLOU will come out on PS4, but it will be playable on PS5 and maybe have upgrades via patch similar to Pro. The divide in gens will be when devs decide they want to make an exclusive PS5 game
As for the thread title, i have focused on 2019 and 2020 since PS4 launched, so i don't think pro really changes that
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
I don't really want a new console until 2020. I'm seriously done with upgrading.
Sony was light on announcements at E3. Its very likely that their PS4 output is winding down in 2018/2019. They've positioned themselves for a Fall 2019 PS5 launch. I hope it has BC and uprendering for PS4 games so we can skip "UHD Remaster" bullshit.
Microsoft will then be able to launch XB2 in Fall 2020. A comfortable three years after One X. I'm sure it'll launch with full BC, Ultra HD Bluray, etc. It'll be an amazing value proposition, especially if it's more powerful than the PS5.
Not sure about Nintendo. I'm certain that their next console will be a Super Switch, but will they wait 4 years? 5 years? They can't drag the Switch too long or it'll have a software drought.
Microsoft will then be able to launch XB2 in Fall 2020. A comfortable three years after One X. I'm sure it'll launch with full BC, Ultra HD Bluray, etc. It'll be an amazing value proposition, especially if it's more powerful than the PS5.
Not sure about Nintendo. I'm certain that their next console will be a Super Switch, but will they wait 4 years? 5 years? They can't drag the Switch too long or it'll have a software drought.
Honestly, I think PS4 Pro and Xbox One X have bought this generation an extra year (to fall 2020) otherwise if these mid-gen upgraded consoles had not happened, we'd be looking at 2019 for PS5 and Xbox Two.
But mid gen upgrades did happen, and technology advances are slowing down, while game development times are getting longer. That's why I believe next gen isn't going to happen until late 2020.
almostjuliuscaesar
Member
i expect it to be just as long as last time. they Pro & Scorpio were so we didn't feel like it's been forever this go around. I don't expect another playstation until 2020. which would be 7 years again. But the real question is what does microsoft do, because no matter what they call it, the XBOX is damn near a new console. the CPU is what's holding it back.
Kssio_Aug
Member
And that's exactly what I was thinking some days ago. If the next Xbox packs all the BC and services XBX offers + BC with XB1 it will be a pretty insane value and most certainly a console that will worth the money right from the start. I think MS is taking the right steps for the future...
ToxicPhantom
Member
I actually didnt have an issue with last generation lasting as long as it did. I was kind of hoping it lasted a full 10 years before we got the current hardware.
Shin
Banned
Curious what they'll do with PSVR 2.0 and if 2560 x 1440 will be the resolution they target for it, seems like a sweet spot resolution wise and to keep 90+fps with bells and whistles.
As to the when, feel free to read this thread where we're mainly discussing price, technology development and when (specifically the last couple of pages).
As to the when, feel free to read this thread where we're mainly discussing price, technology development and when (specifically the last couple of pages).
Nah, 2020 at the earliest with 2021 or even later being a good possibility. It goes beyond just the hardware being ready, which won't be the case in 2019, where we have to look at the longer development cycles. If next gen started in 2019, many studios would have only created just one game this generation. Asking them to move over to a new generation when they've hardly had a chance to recoup from their investments into this generation is bad for the industry as a whole. I mean think about it. Rockstar North has only released a Remaster, 4A has only released a Remaster collection, PD hasn't even released their full fledged GT game, Bioware Edmonton has only made Inquisition while the other team in the studio has been working on Anthem, and so on. This gen could very well be longer than the last.
It should last a bit longer. Trying to sell gamers on upgrading to Pro, a substantial cost, then pushing out a new console only a few years after is pretty shit.
This gen looks looks excellent - they should stick around a bit longer.
Shin
Banned
Everything lines up for a late 2020 launch, CPU (Zen3), GPU (Navi), RAM (HMB3, Low-Cost HBM, GDDR6), node shrink (7nm) and whatever else I missed.
I don't agree with them trying to "sell" PS4Pro, it is offered as an option and caters the enthusiasts crowd which is all about the latest and greatest, price be damned.
Three to four years later after Pro is longer than most of us would have imagined, regardless the base model is their bread and butter and 2013 - 2020 is seven years.
Hawk269
Member
I think it will last longer. I think with the XBX coming out and it seems Sony is finally talking more about the PRO, I think that both companies will push those 2 consoles this holiday the most. Even though the Slim PS4 and the Xbox One S will sell the most, I think there will be a lot of advertising of the XBX & PRO.
is 7nm+ ready by 2019 for big chips at good yields?
I think it will last longer than it would have without the "enhanced" machines. But I don't think they'll be able to do this sort of refresh more than once a generation... whatever comes next will be the "next gen", PS5, Xbox One-Two, even if they're still just as iterative on paper.
Alexander DeLarge
Member
I hope they release a new Playstation in 2019 and phase out the base PS4 model. There's nothing worse than being a PC gamer being held back by 8 year old processing (which was already laughable back in 2013)
killer rin
Member
The concept of generations is dead. Consoles are moving to an incremental approach of one release every couple of years
Doubtful.
Shin
Banned
If things keep up as they are at the moment it will/should be ready yes, 7nm EUV.
Yields, well that's up in the air but considering that it's still 7nm I don't think there will be any issues there.
Papo Swing
Member
With Sony and MS being clear that Pro and X are premium versions and not really new hardware, maybe sooner than later. I'd say credible rumors and maybe a code name by late 2019.
diablos991
Can’t stump the diablos
This generation will undoubtedly last longer as processor tech slows down.
That and older consoles will continue to hold new consoles back due to the blurred generational lines.
That and older consoles will continue to hold new consoles back due to the blurred generational lines.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Is 5 nm going to be ready by 2020/2021? May be a better idea to wait and get a bigger leap
Shin
Banned
Shifting to 5nm in 2021 for GloFlo, 2020 TSMC, so mass production in 2021/2022 (if all goes well).
I think Sony will go with the same business model next gen, release ASAP with what's available and come out a Pro model down the line using current tech.
Which will most likely be the GPU after Navi, whatever CPU after Zen3 and on 5nm/EUV with silicon nanosheets.
Which would mean that once again they could technically launch a Pro model at $399.
PS4 peeps will move to PS5, Pro is just an option, not a generation, not anything - a option.
http://www.fudzilla.com/news/proces...oundries-and-samsung-come-up-with-5nm-process
potatohead
Member
Ps5 in 2020 is ideal imo
Seven years made such a worthwhile hardware upgrade from 7Th to 8Th gen
When we hit for 9th gen the same would be perfect
Maybe hbm will be more ready then and some killer new amd cores hitting now could be thrown into the apus of the next consoles
Seven years made such a worthwhile hardware upgrade from 7Th to 8Th gen
When we hit for 9th gen the same would be perfect
Maybe hbm will be more ready then and some killer new amd cores hitting now could be thrown into the apus of the next consoles
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Good point, I guess Sony will likely keep offering upgrades with each major node shrink and will allow a certain lapse of time between generations so things like RAM, CPU, etc can be substantially better
Although if next gen targets 4k minimum, I wonder what the point of a pro would be? 8k seems silly. Maybe 60 fps?
Shin
Banned
More bells and whistles, more FPS due to CPU clock speed bump, more maxed out settings a la PC, hard to say really.
There's also PSVR (2.0) which might become an integral part of their eco-system, what resolution will be the new baseline 2560x1440?
A Ryzen 1700 with 1070/1080 can do that while maintaining 90FPS, I think that will be a better option than 4k PSVR2 cuz it might look like shit.
On that note I hope if they release a second version of it that's well thought out and the hardware is there to support it.
If PSVR is compatible with PS5 which I think there's a high chance otherwise they'll piss off the very little customers that bought into it.
The system would enhance the experience I guess, much like PS4 Pro made the games look a lot better (don't have one, but it seems to be the case?).
There's also PSVR (2.0) which might become an integral part of their eco-system, what resolution will be the new baseline 2560x1440?
A Ryzen 1700 with 1070/1080 can do that while maintaining 90FPS, I think that will be a better option than 4k PSVR2 cuz it might look like shit.
On that note I hope if they release a second version of it that's well thought out and the hardware is there to support it.
If PSVR is compatible with PS5 which I think there's a high chance otherwise they'll piss off the very little customers that bought into it.
The system would enhance the experience I guess, much like PS4 Pro made the games look a lot better (don't have one, but it seems to be the case?).
Poimandres
Member
Historically, Sony has barely cared about being the most powerful. Not sure why they would care now unless the XB1 X does crazy numbers (doubtful).
I think 2019-2020.
UltimaKilo
Gold Member
7nm tech in 2019 is a pipe dream. You won't see that kind of tech readily available until 2023 at the earliest.
Nonetheless, the next gen is likely 2020/2021. This gen's systems are selling too well to undercut them, plus developers like extending generations too. We'll see if the next gen will be the last generation or not, but right now the infrastructure doesn't really exist for that, and probably won't within the next 10 years.
Nonetheless, the next gen is likely 2020/2021. This gen's systems are selling too well to undercut them, plus developers like extending generations too. We'll see if the next gen will be the last generation or not, but right now the infrastructure doesn't really exist for that, and probably won't within the next 10 years.
Shin
Banned
ShadowFox08
Member
8 TFLOPs console with 12GB of RAM and maybe 2x as better CPU as PS4's for $500 in 2018/early 2019 isn't all that great.
That's like a Wii U --> Switch or Xbone -->Xbone X jump which is isn't a whole lot. Gen leaps are usually 10x in GPU at least. But I'm a bit skeptical about the next gen jump too in what could be 2020-2021 as well. I can't see anything more than 12 TFLOPS in 2020 tbqh..
Here's an update on 7nm, from a week ago.
https://www.extremetech.com/computi...ilability-40-improved-performance-14nm-finfet
https://www.globalfoundries.com/new...ver-leading-performance-7nm-finfet-technology
https://www.extremetech.com/computi...ilability-40-improved-performance-14nm-finfet
https://www.globalfoundries.com/new...ver-leading-performance-7nm-finfet-technology
SenjutsuSage
Banned
For sure considering what the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X will make possible in a lot of games going forward. We've hit a very nice sweet point for what consoles can achieve in games. I'd say the soonest we could see new consoles is 2021 or even 2022 could be the sweet spot. That might sound like too long, but I just have a feeling these consoles might last that long.
Shin
Banned
I hope not, since you're just upgrading components for the most part R&D shouldn't be batshitcrazy.
Innovation, don't know about that and usually comes more in the form of peripherals so I hope we see shorter generations.
Still the same eco-system / generation, just with better and more up to date hardware in all aspects.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
7nm is 40% more efficient and draws 60% less power?
Does that mean a Scorpio sized APU on 7nm would be 19.2 TFlops? 6 x 2.2 density x 1.4 efficiency = 19.2
Does that mean a Scorpio sized APU on 7nm would be 19.2 TFlops? 6 x 2.2 density x 1.4 efficiency = 19.2
They do overpromise a lot though, and on top of that those are usually for small mobile SoCs.
Shin
Banned
That is what risk production and engineering samples are for, we're not talking about 1 fab here but at least 3 that are on track.
And mobile SoC's tend to use the oddball processes like 12, 10,8, 6, 4nm's and the likes.
Jaguar Victory
Member
You may be right. I was thinking 6TF*1.4 or 8.4TF. If efficiency is multiplied by density then that's pretty damn awesome.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Also less power consumption, in theory would let you clock even higher
Next gen could be 20+ TFlops? Would be incredible