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Wkd B.O. 05•16-18•14 - Efron's hard abs unable to stop Godzilla's blue meth breath

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B

BlackNMild2k1

Member
I have a question.

What is the likelyhood of Cap 2 making another 10.5 million domestic within the next 2-3 weeks?
or will it be pulled from US theaters before then?

I only ask because in another $10.5M domestic, Cap 2 will have passed The Incredibles, and more importantly Amazing Spider-man on the charts for the #11 spot on the "Superhero" list just under Man of Steel.
 
C

crimsonspider89

Banned
Road said:
Last minute guesses for X-Men Days of Future Past:

Realistic: $500 million ($200m domestic $300m foreign)

Optimistic: $600 million ($220m domestic $380m foreign)

Ceiling: $700 million ($250m domestic $450m foreign)

My fanboy wet dreams because it deserves it: $800 million ($300m domestic $500m foreign)
Click to expand...

Those are way too low. The movie at least will make 600 million. School is ending in a lot of places in the US so first summer blockbuster.

The movie will end up making 680 to 750 million.

It will do just as good as Spidey if not better.
 
D

Discotheque

Banned
i dunno if it will even make as much as amazing spiderman 2. it looks to be the best blockbuster of the summer but xmen was never that huge.
 
J

jtb

Banned
X-men 3 opened huge then crashed hard because it was total shit. if DoFP is good, could have some staying power. especially if Edge of Tomorrow is the bomb everyone seems to expect it to be
 
C

crimsonspider89

Banned
That was before international markets became as big as they are now.

If the good will continues then yes will beat ASM2 definitely(how Cap 2 beat MoS).

Plus a lot of high schools are having graduation ceremony so that is a lot of money to be spent.
 
K

kswiston

Member
BlackNMild2k1 said:
I have a question.

What is the likelyhood of Cap 2 making another 10.5 million domestic within the next 2-3 weeks?
or will it be pulled from US theaters before then?

I only ask because in another $10.5M domestic, Cap 2 will have passed The Incredibles, and more importantly Amazing Spider-man on the charts for the #11 spot on the "Superhero" list just under Man of Steel.
Click to expand...

$10.5M is probably on the high side, but not impossible.
 
N

numble

Member
Road said:
Last minute guesses for X-Men Days of Future Past:

Realistic: $500 million ($200m domestic $300m foreign)

Optimistic: $600 million ($220m domestic $380m foreign)

Ceiling: $700 million ($250m domestic $450m foreign)

My fanboy wet dreams because it deserves it: $800 million ($300m domestic $500m foreign)
Click to expand...
I think foreign will do well with several China factors going for it. Next weekend is a holiday weekend for China, and they have a big Chinese star starring in the movie.

I'm going with 11 Chinese people in a couple of hours and I think only 1 is really familiar with the series. Some are going just because they saw a movie poster.
 
B

BlackNMild2k1

Member
The Wolverine = $414M ($132M Domestic)
X-Men First Class = $353M WW ($146M Domestic)
X-Men Origins: Wolverine = $373M ($179M Domestic)
X-Men: The Last Stand = $459M WW ($234M Domestic)
X2: X-Men United = $407M WW ($215M Domestic)
X-Men = $296M ($157M Domestic)

Road's predictions don't seem way too low to me.
Maybe a little generous actually, but close enough based on history.
Good word of mouth could get it there and then some.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
I'm expecting around 220-230 domestic and 350+ foreign for Xmen. Tracking has it at 100m+ for the four day so it will definitely break 200m domestic.
 
K

kswiston

Member
BlackNMild2k1 said:
The Wolverine = $414M ($132M Domestic)
X-Men First Class = $353M WW ($146M Domestic)
X-Men Origins: Wolverine = $373M ($179M Domestic)
X-Men: The Last Stand = $459M WW ($234M Domestic)
X2: X-Men United = $407M WW ($215M Domestic)
X-Men = $296M ($157M Domestic)

Road's predictions don't seem way too low to me.
Maybe a little generous actually, but close enough based on history.
Click to expand...

His overseas grosses are on the low side. Wolverine almost did $300M overseas. This series has been trending up overseas with every entry, and DoFP is getting a bigger marketing push than First Class or The Wolverine.
 
B

BlackNMild2k1

Member
kswiston said:
His overseas grosses are on the low side. Wolverine almost did $300M overseas. This series has been trending up overseas with every entry, and DoFP is getting a bigger marketing push than First Class or The Wolverine.
Click to expand...

So you're betting on "optimistic" or "the ceiling" or are you saying that it will break though the ceiling and reach new heights for the series (which optimistic already would have.)
 
C

crimsonspider89

Banned
He is saying that all the factors are lining up to allow this movie to do much better than the past. Word of mouth, PR, timing, and casting.

Optimistically would be 800 million but see this beating ASM2 and it and Cap 2 being on par in sale wise.
 
K

kswiston

Member
BlackNMild2k1 said:
So you're betting on "optimistic" or "the ceiling" or are you saying that it will break though the ceiling and reach new heights for the series (which optimistic already would have.)
Click to expand...

We already have early grosses for South Korea and Taiwan, and they are way up from First Class. Probably double. I'm expecting China to come close to doubling the Wolverine's gross ($40M). Overall, I think $400M overseas is not going to be that big a hurdle.
 
S

SCULLIBUNDO

Banned
This film is the return to form lay-up for X-Men Apocalypse to wreck shit at the box office so long as Singer isn't in jail.

X3 squandered all the good will that X2 garnered.
 
R

Road

Member
kswiston said:
We already have early grosses for South Korea and Taiwan, and they are way up from First Class. Probably double. I'm expecting China to come close to doubling the Wolverine's gross ($40M). Overall, I think $400M overseas is not going to be that big a hurdle.
Click to expand...

Putting more thought into it, $300m is more "pessimistic" than "realistic" for overseas indeed.

But we'll see. I hope you're right. =P
 
R

Road

Member
XDoFP with $8.1 million est. for Thursday "midnights".

image__140523150346-575x134.png

http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/box-office-x-men-nabs-stellar-8-1m-in-late-night-thursday-opening/

Lower than TWS, TASM2 and Godzilla.

Taking into consideration it had less showings (10pm vs. 7/8pm), it's a good number.
 
K

kurahador

Member
jtb said:
X-men 3 opened huge then crashed hard because it was total shit. if DoFP is good, could have some staying power. especially if Edge of Tomorrow is the bomb everyone seems to expect it to be
Click to expand...

Oh jeez...I hope not. With the positives word of mouth so far and being an adaptation of great japanese light novel, I really hope it does well.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Really early Friday numbers are pointing towards $38-42M for Days of Future Past. That would put the 4-Day well above $100M.

Godzilla is shaping up to have a $10M Friday, which is actually pretty mediocre. The long weekend will soften the drop though.
 
J

jett

D-Member
I can only say that I hope X-Men is rewarded with huge success. It's the best comic book movie I've seen in a really long fucking time.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Early estimates were too high. I guess the evening shows weren't as strong as the matinees suggested.

Friday Studio Estimates:

1) X-Men Days of Future Past - $36.0M
2) Godzilla - $8.84M - $126M total
3) Blended - $4.4M
4) Neighbors - $4.2M - $104M total
5) Amazing Spider-man 2 - $2M - $179M total

- DOFP came in lower than previously estimated, but it should still manage at least $95M+ for the 3 day and $110+ for the 4-day weekend.


- Knowing the budget of Sandler movies, Blended is probably a flop

- Godzilla's Friday to Friday drop was 77%, and its second Friday was under Amazing Spider-man 2. Memorial Day weekend will help, but $200M might not be as much of a slam dunk as expected.

- Amazing Spider-man 2 continues to have shit legs, dropping another 56%
 
R

RevoDS

Junior Member
kswiston said:
Early estimates were too high. I guess the evening shows weren't as strong as the matinees suggested.

Friday Studio Estimates:

1) X-Men Days of Future Past - $36.0M
2) Godzilla - $8.84M - $126M total
3) Blended - $4.4M
4) Neighbors - $4.2M - $104M total
5) Amazing Spider-man 2 - $2M - $179M total

- DOFP came in lower than previously estimated, but it should still manage at least $95M+ for the 3 day and $110+ for the 4-day weekend.


- Knowing the budget of Sandler movies, Blended is probably a flop

- Godzilla's Friday to Friday drop was 77%, and its second Friday was under Amazing Spider-man 2. Memorial Day weekend will help, but $200M might not be as much of a slam dunk as expected.

- Amazing Spider-man 2 continues to have shit legs, dropping another 56%
Click to expand...
Damn, that's rough for Spidey. Does it even still have a chance to hit $200M domestic or has that ship sailed?
 
T

Toa TAK

Banned
RevoDS said:
Damn, that's rough for Spidey. Does it even still have a chance to hit $200M domestic or has that ship sailed?
Click to expand...

Fo-get Spidey, I hope Godzilla makes it money back. Had a lot of fun watching that movie, and almost everyone I know did, too.
 
O

ohhthegore

Member
Sho_Nuff82 said:
The Raid 2 is better than Winter Soldier, didn't help it much.

I'm seeing X-Men this afternoon, if it's at least as good as First Class I feel like I'd get my money's worth.
Click to expand...

The Raid 2 is better than a lot of things, doesn't make WS trash though. I think in the end it will end up the best of all the big summer blockbusters
 
J

jtb

Banned
damn, that's a little disappointing for Godzilla—though not totally unsurprising. mixed word of mouth, and a loaded month of big releases.
 
T

Tucah

you speak so well
Disappointed that Godzilla dropped so much but I'm not surprised - I personally liked it a ton but everyone else I know who saw it had more mixed reactions. I can't wait to see DoFP sometime this weekend though, X2 remains one of my favorite superhero movies.
 
V

Verendus

Banned
BlackNMild2k1 said:
The Wolverine = $414M ($132M Domestic)
X-Men First Class = $353M WW ($146M Domestic)
X-Men Origins: Wolverine = $373M ($179M Domestic)
X-Men: The Last Stand = $459M WW ($234M Domestic)
X2: X-Men United = $407M WW ($215M Domestic)
X-Men = $296M ($157M Domestic)
Click to expand...
When you see this, you realise how badly Fox messed up with X-Men.

With the way the international market is right now, and how The Wolverine was received, X-Men and X2 are essentially $500-600+ million grossing movies. Their totals are deceiving in terms of their potential compared to today due to the international market back then. Their domestic total is very good. Even X-Men 3 would have crossed the $600 million mark with that kind of domestic figure today.

They really messed up their own ship by making X-Men 3 because they're only now about to correct it with Days of Future Past. The first X-Men was an average movie but it did a good job of laying the foundation for a very good sequel in X2. Then Fox just went crazy and jumped off a cliff. They had nowhere to go after that abomination, then did a couple of spin-offs and struggled to reboot the mess they caused.
 
B

BLACKLAC

Member
kswiston said:
Early estimates were too high. I guess the evening shows weren't as strong as the matinees suggested.

Friday Studio Estimates:

1) X-Men Days of Future Past - $36.0M
2) Godzilla - $8.84M - $126M total
3) Blended - $4.4M
4) Neighbors - $4.2M - $104M total
5) Amazing Spider-man 2 - $2M - $179M total

- DOFP came in lower than previously estimated, but it should still manage at least $95M+ for the 3 day and $110+ for the 4-day weekend.


- Knowing the budget of Sandler movies, Blended is probably a flop

- Godzilla's Friday to Friday drop was 77%, and its second Friday was under Amazing Spider-man 2. Memorial Day weekend will help, but $200M might not be as much of a slam dunk as expected.

- Amazing Spider-man 2 continues to have shit legs, dropping another 56%
Click to expand...

I'll be surprised if DoFP doesn't top Winter Soldier in 3-day weekend. I figured the release date would guarantee it.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Days of Future Past is doing really well in China. Opening Day was over $10M, making it the biggest opening of the year. $80M is probably locked, $100M could happen. Considering the fact that First Class didn't even release in China, that's going to be a big boost to the OS box office. The film seems to be playing really well in the rest of non-Japan Asia.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
kswiston said:
Days of Future Past is doing really well in China. Opening Day was over $10M, making it the biggest opening of the year. $80M is probably locked, $100M could happen. Considering the fact that First Class didn't even release in China, that's going to be a big boost to the OS box office. The film seems to be playing really well in the rest of non-Japan Asia.
Click to expand...

Damn. Give it a decade and America will be irrelevant when it comes to BO hits.
 
K

kswiston

Member
3-Day Weekend Studio Estimates:

1) X-Men Days of Future Past - $90.7M
2) Godzilla - $31.4M - $149M total
3) Blended - $14.25M
4) Neighbors - $13.9M - $114M total
5) Amazing Spider-man 2 - $7.8M - $185M

- Horrendous hold for Godzilla
- Not amazing for X-men either
 
F

Fudgepuppy

Banned
I really hope Godzilla doesn't fail in the long run. It would be so sad if the movie only amassed a die-hard audience that went on opening day, with it withering for its remaining BO-time.
 
H

HalfBakedProphet

Member
I don't find it surprising Godzilla was so front loaded. It will still be over 150 domestic after this weekend which is more than I thought it would do total a few months ago. 450-500 WW will mean it was profitable
 
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