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Xbox One is selling exceptionally well, but...

jayu26

Member
is it doing as well as MS want it to?

I will be honest, I did not think Xbox One was going to sell as well as it has been. Most estimates puts it at ~4million, which is very good for a system that costs $500. Hopefully, even the most anti-Xbox/MS person can see that these are exceptionally good numbers. Then they started doing unofficial (later official) price cuts in UK and started doing $500 TitanFall and Forza bundles (these are two separate bundles) in the US. This is probably also happening in Canada. Which leads me to believe that either of following scenarios are taking place at the MS HQ:

Scenario One: Internal targets for Xbox One at MS are/were ridiculous. This is a case that we have seen all too often last gen, albeit in the software side of things. Take recent example of Tomb Raider for instance. Last year when most of us were surprised and kind of jubilant about Tomb Raider's sales numbers, Square was talking about how they were disappointed that it did not meet their internal projections. Could MS have fallen for these kinds of over expectations from a product that was never going to achieve them? Although I don't subscript to this notion, I think this is one of the possibilities. After all, companies don't do price cuts or perceived price cuts unless they are not hitting internal targets.

Scenario Two: This is the one that I think describes what is actually happening. MS actually likes those numbers and Xbox One is on track or exceeding their internal projection. What they don't like is the fact that PS4 has out sold them in two of their best markets two months in a row (and might be on track to doing so in the month of March). This is big problem for a them because so much of their business model relies on locking up third party content early on in the generation. If PS4 continues to outsell Xbox One in US and UK, then TitanFall 2 exclusivity becomes that much more expensive. Call of Duty and Battlefield map packs become much more expensive. MS might have a lot of more money than Sony to burn on these things, but at certain point it will become ridiculous from the business stand point.

Do you guys think either of my scenarios is what is happening or is it something I haven't even thought of?

Edit: It seems that some people are taken aback by my use of the word "exceptional" (I did over use that word actually). I meant it was exceptional from my stand point. PS4's numbers are Godly, but Xbox One's numbers are not what I thought they would be and hence they appear exceptional to me.
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
Scenario Two. It's all about market share.
 

gazele

Banned
I can't imagine they'd predict their console at 500 dollars selling better than their competition at 400

I do think they are below where they thought they'd be by a little bit, not too much though

There are some indications that they have stock on shelves that aren't selling (bundles, price drops, no titanfall console) but I think they think Titanfall will help that a lot (and it probably will)
 

shamanick

Member
Mindshare still belongs to PS4, titanfall is not enough for Microsoft. They will continue to be aggressive because they are paying attention.
 
well they wanted it to be Apple wii

I'm guessing it's not the hit they had hoped for, and original profit streams got "temporarily" delayed due to the 180.
 

Toki767

Member
You have to think anything other than being #1 in the US is a failure for Microsoft in their eyes after the 360 dominated last gen.
 

netBuff

Member
How is it selling "exceptionally well"? It really doesn't seem that way anywhere.

And PS4 isn't outselling them in "two of their best markets" but worldwide.
 
MS projections for Xbox One sales are (were?) at 400 million to 1 billion lifetime. So says Yusuf Mehdi in May of last year.

Totally unlikely to ever happen. Ever.
duhlines495.jpg
 
Scenario Two, IMO.
I honestly think launch was probably shaky, but they seem to have recovered nicely and Microsoft has been real quick on reactionary moves, so I think it'll stabilize just fine.

It's just being compared to the wafflemonster that is PS4 at the moment.
 

SPDIF

Member
MS projections for Xbox One sales are (were?) at 400 million to 1 billion lifetime. So says Yusuf Mehdi in May of last year.

Totally unlikely to ever happen. Ever.

I still dont understand how something that stupid came out of that mans mouth...Unless they plan on selling the Xbone for 60 years...lol

What? At first I thought you meant dollars but even then that didn't really make sense. Holy crap.

He's talking about all next gen consoles combined, not just the XB1.
 
I'm pretty sure it'll fall behind the 360's trajectory soon enough, so no, I doubt MS is happy with this. They're getting beat in the US where they absolutely dominated. Even if they maintain parity, their marketshare here in NA is going to shrink dramatically. And in Europe it's going to be a massive decline since the X1 is pretty much irrelevant outside the UK. Everywhere else, the X1 probably won't even launch and if it does it won't do much.

They'll be lucky to sell half of what they did with the 360.
 

jayu26

Member
How is it selling "exceptionally well"? It really doesn't seem that way anywhere.

And PS4 isn't outselling them in "two of their best markets" but worldwide.

For a video game console those numbers are exceptionally well, IMO. Just because PS4 is in a beast mode does not mean that Xbone's numbers are not impressive.
 

Lemondish

Member
I still dont understand how something that stupid came out of that mans mouth...Unless they plan on selling the Xbone for 60 years...lol

I have a lot of respect for that guy, but this is probably the dumbest thing I have ever heard anybody say in reference to this hobby. I mean, its ridiculous to think anything will ever topple the PS2 in sales...but more than twice that amount? As your low end? With features that are pretty much worthless outside North America?

Maybe he expects China to absolutely explode for the damn thing.
 
It's obviously not, otherwise we wouldn't have the Titanfall bundle, the Forza giveaway, and various other promotions such as gift cards and such, not to mention the price drop in the UK.

MS projections for Xbox One sales are (were?) at 400 million to 1 billion lifetime. So says Yusuf Mehdi in May of last year.

Totally unlikely to ever happen. Ever.

MS couldn't have really thought that was achievable could they?

God Yusuf says some terrible things. Someone keep him away from the press.
 
Yup. They are doing great. Far better than I expected but I do think they expected better. Look at the supply. PS4 is doing better than expected hence it not being available. Sony didn't expect it to sell this well. MS on the other hand probably expected it to sell like hotcakes and destroy PS4 in America. It's doing great but I think they wanted more which is why there is such a great supply. I think they really thought people would see the supposed value and buy it on that and brand loyalty

And they were first for so long they do not want to fall behind early. Yes, it's a marathon and not a sprint but getting behind early, especially on their home turf cannot be comforting
 
Might be getting one tomorrow. I hope it's good. With Titanfall, Killer Instinct, Garden Warfare, etc. being pretty appealing to me I feel like it's time.
 
I'm pretty sure it'll fall behind the 360's trajectory soon enough, so no, I doubt MS is happy with this. They're getting beat in the US where they absolutely dominated. Even if they maintain parity, their marketshare here in NA is going to shrink dramatically. And in Europe it's going to be a massive decline since the X1 is pretty much irrelevant outside the UK. Everywhere else, the X1 probably won't even launch and if it does it won't do much.

They'll be lucky to sell half of what they did with the 360.
Its like people just know nowadays
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
I think if they can keep pre price-drop sale split to 60-40 or 55-45 vs PS4 they're doing well, but if it starts getting into 75-25 territory that's a problem, because they might get to the situation where a price drop isn't enough to recapture momentum.
 

Lemondish

Member
He's talking about all next gen consoles combined, not just the XB1.

"Microsoft’s senior vice president of Interactive Entertainment Business Yusuf Mehdi has stated that given the broad multimedia focus of Xbox One, there’s no reason why it can’t shift between 400 million and 1 billion consoles in its lifetime. "

Doesn't sound like that's what he meant. Mind linking me to the clarification?
 

netBuff

Member
For a video game console those numbers are exceptional well, IMO. Just because PS4 is in a beast mode does not mean that Xbone's numbers are not impressive.

They aren't impressive, especially not with MS stuffing the sales channel the way they have and reporting estimated sell-through numbers. We live in a world of heavily front-loaded sales, with big launch hype: The Xbone seems to have slowed down very severely. The big price drops MS has had to to very early speak volumes.

The direct competition doing much better absolutely IS indication of this happening.
 

LX_Theo

Banned
Scenario Two. It's all about market share.

Yep. Market share means mind share. The more people are aware of the consoles, the more people buy it and buy their games on it. The big money maker in this all is game sales. If you lose mind share, then you lose a lot of potential sales of multiplatform games that get bought on other systems instead. It was an issue that hit the PS3 pretty hard, especially early on.
 

Lemondish

Member
I think if they can keep pre price-drop sale split to 60-40 or 55-45 vs PS4 they're doing well, but if it starts getting into 75-25 territory that's a problem, because they might get to the situation where a price drop isn't enough to recapture momentum.

Are you talking worldwide or just in North America?
 
I think they are doing well especially considering how awful they came out the gate. I didn't expect to want one at this time last year, but they do have a great lineup of games right now and convinced me to own both a ps4 and Xbox one. Both are worthy of a purchase IMO!
 

Lemondish

Member
Name another console (other than PS4) that sold 4million in the first 4 months.

I don't think the numbers being exceptional is really what we're discussing here. Sure, they should be happy about these numbers, but its obvious this isn't what they wanted. How is it obvious, you say?

Well, you don't really tend to drop the price of the product this quickly if its selling like you had hoped. The tOP really seemed to try and push us into discussing whether these numbers (admittedly great) are anywhere near their projections. My thinking is that it isn't close to what they hoped.
 

netBuff

Member
It is exceptional from my stand. Question is, is it exceptional from MS's stand point?

Very obviously not, otherwise they wouldn't be pulling their emergency measures, like the Titanfall bundles at base price, the Forza bundle and price drops
 

SPDIF

Member
"Microsoft’s senior vice president of Interactive Entertainment Business Yusuf Mehdi has stated that given the broad multimedia focus of Xbox One, there’s no reason why it can’t shift between 400 million and 1 billion consoles in its lifetime. "

Doesn't sound like that's what he meant. Mind linking me to the clarification?

Moreover, Medhi thinks the general entertainment capabilities of Xbox One and PS4 will more than double their selling power. "We think you can go broader than a game console, that's our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units [Update: just to clarify, he's talking about all next gen consoles combined here]. That's how we're thinking of the Xbox opportunity as we go forward."

The original source

400mil to 1bil is still absofuckinglutely ridiculous for all next gen consoles combined.

True. But it's not as crazy as what people thought he originally said.
 
i think they are good numbers but way below MS projections

"we want xbox to be the next water cooler"

they wanted everyone in north america to own one right next to their cable box. IMO their projections were unrealistic to begin with, especially with the product they have
 
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