I'm feeling really stupid right now.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Batman [Mafia] |OT| The mafia game Gafia deserves , but not the one it needs
- Thread starter roytheone
- Start date
I'm feeling really stupid right now.
Vote count:
coppanuva (2)
sorian 907 (1024)
fireblend 1440
sorian 1459
camjo-z (0)
launchpadmcq 909 (1247)
fluxwavez (0)
fireblend 914 (1440)
xamtheking 1101 (1493)
weemadarthur 1160 (1229)
trigger 1171 (1254)
pop-o-matic (1)
fluxwavez 917
karu (0)
sorian 1024 (1232)
karkador (1)
sorian 1232 (1329)
camjo-z 1259 (1392)
tl21xx 1261
sorian (1)
karkador 1246
launchpadmcq 1247 (1453)
mazre (3)
weemadarthur 1307
trigger 1327
xamtheking 1493
tl21xx (0)
sorian 1329 (1329)
sorian 1451 (1459)
ty4on (0)
sorian 1329 (1451)
launchpadmcq (1)
camjo-z 1392
xamtheking (1)
launchpadmcq 1453
9 votes are needed for majority!
coppanuva (2)
fireblend 1440
sorian 1459
camjo-z (0)
fluxwavez (0)
pop-o-matic (1)
fluxwavez 917
karu (0)
karkador (1)
tl21xx 1261
sorian (1)
karkador 1246
mazre (3)
weemadarthur 1307
trigger 1327
xamtheking 1493
tl21xx (0)
ty4on (0)
launchpadmcq (1)
camjo-z 1392
xamtheking (1)
launchpadmcq 1453
9 votes are needed for majority!
Can you walk me through this a bit? Your role says nothing about an x-shot presumably? How did Roy let you know that it would only be a one time deal? Did he make a mistake, was there flavor, did he just say "oh hey, it's only one shot, sorry, bye"
Xamtheking
Member
ON THIS GLORIOUS DAY, EL TOPO HAS FINALLY REALIZED HIS PLACE IN THE GAFIA COMMUNITY
REJOICE, EVERYONE, FOR THE HEAVENS HAVE GIVEN US WHAT WE HAVE BEEN WANTING FOR ALL OF ETERNITY
Nah fam, you're cool, I'm just having some fun
Let that be a lesson folks: Read your Role PM properly. I mean, I would've used it anyway after I had to reveal, but still....fuck am I dumb.
All he wrote about me in #622 is "Topo is being cautious about Day 1, and I appreciate it". It's a bit of a weird read. Again, it's not even necessarily bad, personally I think I come off as town as it gets, but I've been repeatedly told otherwise, so when someone completely goes against the stream it stands out to me.
All he wrote about me in #622 is "Topo is being cautious about Day 1, and I appreciate it". It's a bit of a weird read. Again, it's not even necessarily bad, personally I think I come off as town as it gets, but I've been repeatedly told otherwise, so when someone completely goes against the stream it stands out to me.
So, Roy told you out of the blue that you only have one shot to your power even though it was already written in your role PM then? That seems.....oddly timed and convenient?
weemadarthur
Member
I was a harsh critic of your attitude toward read lists. When you eventually explained what you meant in detail, I was able to translate your opinion into my personal language. It might be stated "Topo hated Bad read lists". I'd like to hear your more thorough quality reads of more people now that you're here.
Last night, in response to Xam's Batcomputer theory, I made a post about what effect the Batcomputer had in the game. It's a post I think you should all read, as it's the important part of my schtick where I clean up the mess I made and catch the impurities.
But I think the thoughts needed some polish, and maybe I finally got it to shine.
First, a word from our sponsor:
Yes, the Batcomputer is a toy....or more like a mind game. I took the player list, and randomized it. First four names became "scum", last name became "neutral". Some of you caught on already, but I figured I'd get one last flavor post out of it anyway.
But does that mean it didn't have an effect? Did people see right through it?
I disagree. There was a reaction, and in that, I think the trap caught something.
Why do I think this? It's because there's evidence that scum reacted to the list.
Here's the Batcomputer list:
This list is random, but because I marked 5 out of the 18 names, there's statistically about a 1/3 to 1/4 chance that I actually marked a scum or neutral player here. Mind you, I only need to mark one scum to get a reaction from the lot of them. So even one marked name could get all the non-marked scum nervous. Even just the order of the names might make them nervous - the list may have actually grouped some scum together in order on the list.
Of course, they're not going to announce how nervous they are about the list.
So the first thing they might do is dismiss the list outright, as a fake, etc.
You got us! Is this in a particular order? - Sorian
I found the batcomputer input terminal. - Sorian (linked to random.org)
What's bold mean?
What's italic mean? - weemadarthur
Do you have reasoning for those five pls? - weemadarthur
Let's end this farce. - Mazre
Scum has clearly been cornered here. - Trigger
Kark, can we please get serious here.
Stop hiding behind your Batcomputer and shit. - Xamtheking
But then
Batcomputer is starting to grow on me oddly enough. - Mazre
I'm willing to lynch him to test the bat computer theory. - Trigger
D1, there's a push to lynch El Topo. El Topo is marked as "neutral" on the list. Lynching El Topo would test the Batcomputer theory.
El Topo's votes
The posts where these votes were made:
Trigger demonstrates much less reasoning in choosing Topo - he just wants to "test the Batcomputer". But rather than nominating someone on the scum list, as if that is the preferred thing to test on a list with mafia and a neutral.
However, things go sideways when I tie the vote, and when Camjo overrides the thing.
At night, scum kills SkyOdin, a member of the Batcomputer's "scum list". I don't think this was a coincidence. They wanted to test the list, and they wanted to kill someone who would make the list look false (and me look scummy).
It's possible that that list is somewhat accurate. Maybe scum is in the bolded. Maybe El Topo is the scum player. Maybe the list happens to have their names together, and they got paranoid about that. But I do think the list got tested because scum got worried about something.
Trigger, I choose you.
VOTE: Trigger
But I think the thoughts needed some polish, and maybe I finally got it to shine.
First, a word from our sponsor:
Toy Commercial said:
Yes, the Batcomputer is a toy....or more like a mind game. I took the player list, and randomized it. First four names became "scum", last name became "neutral". Some of you caught on already, but I figured I'd get one last flavor post out of it anyway.
But does that mean it didn't have an effect? Did people see right through it?
I disagree. There was a reaction, and in that, I think the trap caught something.
Why do I think this? It's because there's evidence that scum reacted to the list.
Here's the Batcomputer list:
This list is random, but because I marked 5 out of the 18 names, there's statistically about a 1/3 to 1/4 chance that I actually marked a scum or neutral player here. Mind you, I only need to mark one scum to get a reaction from the lot of them. So even one marked name could get all the non-marked scum nervous. Even just the order of the names might make them nervous - the list may have actually grouped some scum together in order on the list.
Of course, they're not going to announce how nervous they are about the list.
So the first thing they might do is dismiss the list outright, as a fake, etc.
You got us! Is this in a particular order? - Sorian
I found the batcomputer input terminal. - Sorian (linked to random.org)
What's bold mean?
What's italic mean? - weemadarthur
Do you have reasoning for those five pls? - weemadarthur
Let's end this farce. - Mazre
Scum has clearly been cornered here. - Trigger
Kark, can we please get serious here.
Stop hiding behind your Batcomputer and shit. - Xamtheking
But then
Batcomputer is starting to grow on me oddly enough. - Mazre
I'm willing to lynch him to test the bat computer theory. - Trigger
D1, there's a push to lynch El Topo. El Topo is marked as "neutral" on the list. Lynching El Topo would test the Batcomputer theory.
El Topo's votes
The posts where these votes were made:
Trigger demonstrates much less reasoning in choosing Topo - he just wants to "test the Batcomputer". But rather than nominating someone on the scum list, as if that is the preferred thing to test on a list with mafia and a neutral.
However, things go sideways when I tie the vote, and when Camjo overrides the thing.
At night, scum kills SkyOdin, a member of the Batcomputer's "scum list". I don't think this was a coincidence. They wanted to test the list, and they wanted to kill someone who would make the list look false (and me look scummy).
It's possible that that list is somewhat accurate. Maybe scum is in the bolded. Maybe El Topo is the scum player. Maybe the list happens to have their names together, and they got paranoid about that. But I do think the list got tested because scum got worried about something.
Trigger, I choose you.
VOTE: Trigger
Xamtheking
Member
Karker Spaniel, I agree with you on Trigger being Scum, but I'd like for a Mazre lynch to happen today. What do you think about that?
weemadarthur
Member
Ok Karkador.
That is possible or whatever.
Now here's an easier possibility.
Everyone ignored you after I questioned the batcomputer stuff and it became apparent it was some complicated gambit. Scum killed the towniest person.
I mean, overall, when I've read games....gambits don't work. I saw one work ONCE.
That is possible or whatever.
Now here's an easier possibility.
Everyone ignored you after I questioned the batcomputer stuff and it became apparent it was some complicated gambit. Scum killed the towniest person.
I mean, overall, when I've read games....gambits don't work. I saw one work ONCE.
You said this earlier and I presented the actual towniest person: Fireblend. I think scum did kill from the bolded purposely.
You should pay more attention
Why? Why would they kill someone bolded? They already know who is mafia and who is town (or at least neutral).
weemadarthur
Member
Xamtheking
Member
Because dumb scum might thought the list actually meant something
weemadarthur
Member
Inverse to previous question.
What player(s) could be bad enough scum player(s) to have fallen for this gambit, iyo?
I said this a few times already (and I'm too lazy to go quote myself).
Scum sees themselves on Kark's list.
Scum assumes the list is bullshit because the bolded isn't all of their teammates (and a role that knew all scum from the start would be ridiculous).
Scum doesn't want to deal with the possibility of people actually giving credence to Kark's list.
Scum kills someone who they know isn't scum from the bolded.
The next day, the person flips town (or maybe neutral if they are unlucky)
People chime in after the initial shock with "oh, the list was bullshit, Kark was lying to us" (which weemad and Camjo did shortly after day start)
Scum rejoices.
It's a simple plan but I see no reason otherwise to kill Sky, no hints he might be a PR. He was towny but not the most towny as weemad said. He was a medium-high activity poster. If not the bat computer than there really isn't anything on him so it's either the above or scum just wanted to hit someone middle of the road, which is possible but I feel like there were better middle of the road targets too.
Unless I've completely forgotten how probability is calculated there's a ~1/3 chance you only hit non scum in the bolded list and therefore a ~2/3 chance you hit at least one scum.
Assuming 4 scum -> 14 choose 4 over 18 choose 4 -> 1001/3060 -> ~32.7% to hit no scum -> Therefore the inverse percentage (67.3%) to hit at least one scum.
I'll just assume this math checks out.
Xamtheking
Member
We have had some stupid scum before
weemadarthur
Member
Xamtheking
Member
Well, I don't have experience with bad scum players that are in this game, but I like to think scum from PW were pretty all over the place, possibly including (I love you though) TheWorthyEdge
That makes little sense. I see the following (at least somewhat reasonable) scenarios:
1. SkyOdin got killed by a town member with a night kill ability.
-----------------------------
That seems somewhat possible, but unless the ability is x-shot, would said player not reveal himself? Or would the town player stay low, if only to keep mafia unaware that he is now ordinary? Also traditionally such a role would be the Hunter, who only kills upon his death, no?
2. SkyOdin got killed due to a switcher
-----------------------------
Possible. The player would obviously not reveal himself and it would make sense for a town player with such an ability to (maybe) test the list this way.
3. SkyOdin got killed by a neutral with a night kill ability
-----------------------------
Possible, but I would assume a neutral would not try this unless he was on the list or unless he had a specific condition that requires him killing mafia. Or is there in mafia some (neutral) randomized killer role? Either way, in that case someone else was probably saved, unless mafia pulled a Love Boat.
4. SkyOdin got killed by mafia
-----------------------------
Since mafia know the (rough) alignment, this would only make sense if several mafia members were on the list. It is of course also possible that SkyOdin died due to other mafia hijinx. Maybe they have a switcher.
It's fine to consider my vote for Topo as not being particularly well-reasoned, but let's be honest here: Your list is false and scummy. SkyOdin wasn't scum, and Topo isn't neutral (unless he's lying of course). I doubt scum would have been worried about it since very few people were taking it seriously from the beginning. If I were scum and a team mate was on that list I wouldn't have given it any credibility. They didn't have to target someone off there because you would have been exposed at some point. I took a small leap of faith, but I highly doubt scum players would fall for that as easily as you seem to think.
Your theory doesn't quite work because the person most advocating the idea that the batcomputer should be tested was a townie, plus El Topo had already been under suspicion for a while for his read list comments. I mean, if the El Topo lynch had gone through and SkyOdin was still alive, you'd probably be leading the charge on him right now.
weemadarthur
Member
Ayyy, Popomatic, where you at?
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Classic Kark, but I'm not sure your conclusions are as definitive as you seem to believe, detective.
Xamtheking
Member
I think he said he had stuff to do today
He said he would be back within the last 24 hours. weemad is obviously ready to throw punches on it but she gave him the benefit of 20 minutes before calling him out.
weemadarthur
Member
Scummy guy defends other scummy guy
Nice drive-by. How about you explain why you agree, considering his "plan" literally boils down to people doing exactly as he says for no reason.
Like, really think about this. If you're following him, you genuinely believe he has a power that:
1. Is so secretive, he can't even tell anyone his role name
2. Won't necessarily take effect tomorrow or even the next day
3. Has an incredibly specific day-phase method of activation, but is one-shot and prompted by a night command
4. If revealed at all, can be instantly nullified by mafia
5. Is still able to work even if he dies
Why would such a role even be in the game? To reward town for being brainless morons who believe anything they're told with nary a shred of evidence?
The role would exist if you were able to accurately gauge the climate of the following day phase and figure out who an extremely guilty party would be but possibly not the one that ends up getting lynched (I've theory crafted a bit on what the power is, I'm not assisting Launch in this endeavor because I don't agree with the target at all and the drip feed on info is as inherently scummy as the rest of the way this has been handled). Launch obviously did not accurately gauge that climate well at all if he is telling the truth and I find it odd that he even decided to do this when he subbed into a game with less than 24 hours left in the night phase and the power was only one-shot (he said this right? I'm not getting confused with Topo?)
I want to believe
Believe that Launch has some special power?
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Harvey Bullock
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Actually, the rest needs answering too, it seems.
2. Too soon to tell.
3. Yes, that's true.
4. Not nullified. I corrected you last time, I'll correct you again. It will affect the behavior of scum, therefore the outcome of the action.
5. Yes, that's true.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
If it wasn't obvious by how I'm trying to play this, the cop isn't a cop role, so I have no problem sharing the name.
Show me
I missed this. Where?
Show you what? That the person most advocating testing that batcomputer was town? Ok:
He was the first to bring it up and allowed sheep like Trigger to follow. Or do you mean that El Topo was under fire for his read list comments? I'm sure I could go back and pull tons of examples of that but I'd pop that not what you are referring to. Or do you mean the part that you'd be leading a charge on Sky right now? Well that's a hypothetical that is hard to answer but you yourself said the whole point of your list was to watch those who had zero'd in on the neutral, in this case El Topo, and if Sky were still alive then it might not be so clear cut for you, you'd have a bunch of votes on Topo but no flip so I could see it.
---------
I intended to come home and look at the thread and make a big post about who I want to lynch today and then I thought about it and I like where I am right now. I didn't put Coppa on my top scum list from last night but Kark is officially off for now. He still refuses to say it outright but he took a hardline and has claimed batman, that's something that will either get counter claimed by someone living or a flip or Roy was super ballsy and gave batman to scum as a fake claim. I'll side on the former for now and deal with the latter later if need be. Coppa was hovering outside my top 3 and now would be in with Kark's removal. I made my case for Coppa earlier, it's not just inactivity, it's the promise of something more (though a bit combined with this just isn't normal Coppa to me) that is never fulfilled. I'm fine with anyone from Karu, Xam, or Coppa for reasons I've made exceedingly clear all day long. I doubt I have interest in anyone else unless someone makes a damn good case but I'm not seeing it on Trigger and neither Kark's nor weemad's pressing so far has led to much there. I have no interest in a Camjo, Kark, weemad, or Fireblend lynch today so sorry Launch, I'm not coming down to play your game, isolated, it already feels scummy enough but now it would require me to vote for someone who is pretty much confirmed town right now? Nah.