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Salvadora · Feb 28, 2014

Split away from the Ukrainian protest thread due to recent dramatic changes in the story:

Ukraine accuses Russia of 'armed invasion'

UPDATE:

CNNBreaking: Russia gives ultimatum to Ukrainian forces in Crimea: Clear out within 11 hours or face 'military storm,' Russian state media report.

Click to expand...
Troops in unmarked uniforms seize two airports
Russian personnel carriers, helicopters sighted
Acting Ukrainian president decries Russian ‘provocations’
US to Russia: ‘It would be a grave mistake to intervene’
Yanukovych in Russia: ‘I am the legitimate president’

Live updates to this fast moving story can be found here:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-russia-of-taking-over-airports-live-updates
Background:
What is so dangerous about Crimea?

In the aftermath of the revolution in Ukraine - in which pro-Western and nationalist Ukrainians have taken power after the fall of President Viktor Yanukovych - there are fears that the southern region of Crimea could become a battleground between forces loyal to Ukraine and Russia.

Armed men have raised flags over government buildings declaring "Crimea is Russia", while separatist and pro-Ukrainian groups have clashed with each other in the streets.

Why has Crimea become a flashpoint?

Crimea is a centre of pro-Russian sentiment, which can spill into separatism. The region - a peninsula on Ukraine's Black Sea coast - has 2.3 million inhabitants, most of whom identify themselves as ethnic Russians and speak Russian.

The region voted heavily for Viktor Yanukovych in the 2010 presidential election, and many people there believe he is the victim of a coup - leading to attempts by separatists in Crimea's parliament to push for a vote on whether it should leave Ukraine.

What's its legal status?

It remains legally part of Ukraine - a status that Russia backed when pledging to uphold the territorial integrity of Ukraine in a memorandum signed in 1994, also signed by the US, UK and France.

It is an autonomous republic within Ukraine, electing its own parliament. However, the post of Crimean president was abolished in 1995, shortly after a pro-Russian Crimean separatist won the post with a big majority. It now has a presidential representative, and a prime minister, but both are appointed by Kiev.

What could Russia do?

Russia keeps a major naval base in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, where its Black Sea Fleet is based. Some Ukrainians are therefore nervous about Russia's military might being brought to bear.

The lease stipulates that Russian personnel should not take military equipment or vehicles outside the base area without Ukrainian permission. Olexander Turchynov, Ukraine's acting president, warned that any move by Russian troops off of their base in Crimea "will be considered a military aggression".

There are reports of Russian envoys distributing Russian passports in the peninsula. Russia's defence laws allow military action overseas to "protect Russian citizens". This has sparked fears of Russia using this as a pretext for invasion.

Has that happened before?

Russia used a similar justification for sending troops into Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia in 2008, routing Georgian forces which had tried to take back control.

As with Georgia, Moscow resents what it sees as EU and Nato overtures to Ukraine. And after all, Nato decided not to come to Georgia's defence.

But Crimea is bigger than South Ossetia, Ukraine bigger than Georgia, and the Crimean population more divided than in pro-Russian South Ossetia - making Russian intervention in Ukraine a bigger gamble.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26367786

LQX · Feb 28, 2014

I wonder if Europe will step up or just let Russia do what they want.

iJudged · Feb 28, 2014

Wwiii. Noatradamus was correctus.

jufonuk · Feb 28, 2014

iJudged said:
Wwiii. Noatradamus was correctus.

anytime Nostradamus is brought up in a prediction, you know it aint gonna come true lol,

unless I just jinxed us all ?? whhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhy, i'm so so sorrrree

Guerrillas in the Mist · Feb 28, 2014

LQX said:
I wonder if Europe will step up or just let Russia do what they want.

I imagine if the Crimean parliament decides to break away and invite in Russia for defense purposes, it'd be hard to carry out any direct actions against them without the risk of escalation. It's a much smarter move than an outright Russian annexation of the area.

MacNille · Feb 28, 2014

Please, don't let an idiot with a gun make this any worse.

LiK · Feb 28, 2014

Fuck you Putin.

Steelrain · Feb 28, 2014

Shit getting real

~Devil Trigger~ · Feb 28, 2014

but.... Sochi!!!?!

iJudged · Feb 28, 2014

Seriously, Russians are doing a what they want, when and where they want not giving 2 fucks what anyone says lol.

CHEEZMO · Feb 28, 2014

Post-modern invasion.

smokeandmirrors · Feb 28, 2014

LQX said:
I wonder if Europe will step up or just let Russia do what they want.

No one is going to stop or tell Russia "No".

Mr.Awesome · Feb 28, 2014

CHEEZMO;102659495 said:
Post-modern invasion.

What do you mean

UnluckyKate · Feb 28, 2014

Oh come on guys, Putin is just freeing Crimea just like he did free Abkhazia some years ago. These are majorties of russian speaking people or russians anyway so he just takes backs whats is rightfully his. Also, great military airpots and harbor and nice gateway on the black sea.

Mr. RHC · Feb 28, 2014

We really don't need further escalation of this situation imo..

akira28 · Feb 28, 2014

~Devil Trigger~ said:
but.... Sochi!!!?!

the time for playing game in snow is over. Now Russian bear go back to work.

Forsete · Feb 28, 2014

Hopefully this is all just overblown and Russia just flexing some muscles.

LQX said:
I wonder if Europe will step up or just let Russia do what they want.

Hahah, not a chance.

gribbles · Feb 28, 2014

Woot, the leader of the Russia's far right party LDP, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, has visited Crimea and told to a cheering crowd that Crimea is Russian territory that is “occupied” by Ukraine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0yeS_2VDbds

For all of Russia's talk about respecting Ukraine's territorial integrity, they're certainly doing their darndest to prove the opposite.

CHEEZMO · Feb 28, 2014

Mr.Awesome said:
What do you mean

Nothing. But it's certainly an unorthodox way of doing things.

Longshot · Feb 28, 2014

This is going to end well, I genuinely feel bad for the people of Ukraine. It's a scary day for democracy anywhere when nobody really wants this.

ThatObviousUser · Feb 28, 2014

It's time for China and the US to come together to put an end to the Russian menace.

massoluk · Feb 28, 2014

Russia really loves Crimea.

maquiladora · Feb 28, 2014

President Obama to give a statement in the briefing room on Ukraine at 4:45 pm ET

iJudged · Feb 28, 2014

UnluckyKate said:
Oh come on guys, Putin is just freeing Crimea just like he did free Abkhazia some years ago. These are majorties of russian speaking people or russians anyway so he just takes backs whats is rightfully his. Also, great military airpots and harbor and nice gateway on the black sea.

jufonuk · Feb 28, 2014

Obama to make a statement in 15 mins,

darkwing · Feb 28, 2014

so basically Russia is trying to take back Ukraine?

Succinct Verbosity · Feb 28, 2014

Remember those people that took Russia's side over Syria? Jeez.

DrM · Feb 28, 2014

darkwing said:
so basically Russia is trying to take back Ukraine?

Only Crimean peninsula

for now

SomethingInTheSea · Feb 28, 2014

The Russians are smart, they're using 'salami tactics' so that there isn't anything too much to protest until its too late.

Explained brilliantly in this Yes Prime Minister episode;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX_d_vMKswE

Damaniel · Feb 28, 2014

jufonuk said:
Obama to make a statement in 15 mins,

My guess is he'll make the usual grandstanding threats about how Russia escalating the situation in Crimea would be a bad thing. And then we'll do nothing but grumble about it.

(And honestly, that's perfectly fine with me. I'm kind of sick of being the world police anyway. The more interesting response will be from the European Union - what would *they* do about it if Russia decided to annex the Crimean peninsula?)

GK86 · Feb 28, 2014

maquiladora said:
President Obama to give a statement in the briefing room on Ukraine at 4:45 pm ET

You wouldnt happen to have a streaming link?

jufonuk · Feb 28, 2014

SomethingInTheSea said:
The Russians are smart, they're using 'salami tactics' so that there isn't anything too much to protest until its too late.

Explained brilliantly in this Yes Prime Minister episdoe;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX_d_vMKswE

holy shit this is timeless lol

SomethingInTheSea · Feb 28, 2014

Damaniel said:
My guess is he'll make the usual grandstanding threats about how Russia escalating the situation in Crimea would be a bad thing. And then we'll do nothing but grumble about it.

(And honestly, that's perfectly fine with me. I'm kind of sick of being the world police anyway. The more interesting response will be from the European Union - what would *they* do about it if Russia decided to annex the Crimean peninsula?)

Absolutely nothing. At the moment its politically impossible for the UK, Germany isn't going to take an agreesive action like that, which mainly leaves France and a host of relatively smaller players.

maquiladora · Feb 28, 2014

GK86 said:
You wouldnt happen to have a streaming link?

http://www.whitehouse.gov/live/president-obama-makes-statement-13

Agnostic · Feb 28, 2014

GK86 said:
You wouldnt happen to have a streaming link?

http://www.whitehouse.gov/

edit: beaten by seconds!

GK86 · Feb 28, 2014

maquiladora said:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/live/president-obama-makes-statement-13

Agnostic said:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/

Thanks, fellas.

Amir0x · Feb 28, 2014

Wow they're not even like secretive about this shit, gross.

darkwing · Feb 28, 2014

Amir0x said:
Wow they're not even like secretive about this shit, gross.

it's not like some country can do something about it, sure they can complain and stuff but they really don't want to antagonize Russia or the situation

GTP_Daverytimes · Feb 28, 2014

iJudged said:
Seriously, Russians are doing a what they want, when and where they want not giving 2 fucks what anyone says lol.

When you have been the second strongest country for close to 70 years giving a fuck disappears from your language.

Amir0x · Feb 28, 2014

darkwing said:
it's not like some country can do something about it, sure they can complain and stuff but they really don't want to antagonize Russia or the situation

That's why it's fucked up. We know what's happening, but what can we do? The world is a volatile place of course, but dark days ahead for Ukrainians (as if they weren't currently already dark enough).

maquiladora · Feb 28, 2014

Damaniel said:
My guess is he'll make the usual grandstanding threats about how Russia escalating the situation in Crimea would be a bad thing. And then we'll do nothing but grumble about it.

(And honestly, that's perfectly fine with me. I'm kind of sick of being the world police anyway. The more interesting response will be from the European Union - what would *they* do about it if Russia decided to annex the Crimean peninsula?)

Nobody is going to do anything unless this grows beyond Crimea. Even Ukraine's own military isn't taking on the Russians at the moment.

The danger is if one of Ukraine's NATO member state neighbours somehow get involved in something down the road. If that happens then all bets are off.

TCRS · Feb 28, 2014

wth does russia want with more clay. they've got plenty already.

but seriously, this is fucked up. and no one is going to do shit about it.

kirblar · Feb 28, 2014

Is there a possibility that this could (in the long term) calm things down by splitting two distinct ethnic groups into different countries?

Freaky Fred · Feb 28, 2014

GK86 said:
Thanks, fellas.

also here for youtube lovers

jufonuk · Feb 28, 2014

maquiladora said:
Nobody is going to do anything unless this grows beyond Crimea. Even Ukraine's own military isn't taking on the Russians at the moment.

The danger is if one of Ukraine's NATO member state neighbours somehow get involved in something down the road. If that happens then all bets are off.

no country can be that insane can they?

Kabouter · Feb 28, 2014

jufonuk said:
no country can be that insane can they?

No. Russia is absolutely not going to be attacking a NATO member state, you can't be sure of many things when it comes to Russia, but you can be sure of that.

jufonuk · Feb 28, 2014

Kabouter said:
No. Russia is absolutely not going to be attacking a NATO member state, you can't be sure of many things when it comes to Russia, but you can be sure of that.

No i mean, a NATO state, trying to stop Russia, I think Russia will act strong and not retaliate as long as they are left alone, but as soon as someone steps in, they will kick ass.

Phoenician_Viking · Feb 28, 2014

LQX said:
I wonder if Europe will step up or just let Russia do what they want.

Europe will do jack shit.

Sviatoslav · Feb 28, 2014

gribbles said:
Woot, the leader of the Russia's far right party LDP, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, has visited Crimea and told to a cheering crowd that Crimea is Russian territory that is occupied by Ukraine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0yeS_2VDbds

For all of Russia's talk about respecting Ukraine's territorial integrity, they're certainly doing their darndest to prove the opposite.

Zhirinovsky is a known crazy though. He's not exactly taken seriously in Russia.

DUFFMCWALIN · Feb 28, 2014

SomethingInTheSea said:
The Russians are smart, they're using 'salami tactics' so that there isn't anything too much to protest until its too late.

Explained brilliantly in this Yes Prime Minister episode;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX_d_vMKswE

Great clip thanks for sharing it.

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