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[orochi91]

And Phil Spencer was the one who made it happen! (along with the TV TV stuff)



Puts the "I believe in Spencer!" stuff in an awkward context...

Never believed in Spencer, not sure why he got a free pass when he was knee deep in the sewage like shit doesn't stick. He was as guilty as Medhi Yusuf and Don't Mattrick, the only difference is Mattrick didn't survive this and ended up taking the bulk of the blame and Yusuf wasn't as slick.

Not to mention Phil Spencer was also formerly head of MGS, which is renowned for their... well, let's say "underwhelming" output compared to Nintendo and Sony. Don't get me wrong, I think he'll do better than Mattrick, but I really don't get all the love. Especially up towards E3 when everyone was hyping him up and all he delivered was multiplats and CGI trailers for games we won't see for years (I'll get excited for them next E3, when we actually see them in action).

So yea, I honestly don't get all the love.


To be fair, Mattrick did make a lot of money for MS. As much as I dislike it, Kinect was a run away success and brought Xbox to profitability... pretty high too. It's, I guess he let that go to his head. But yea, it's not like he got that big payday for nothing.

I've been saying similar things about Spencer for some time now. This just further
cements my distrust in the guy.

I don't get why some are so quick to berate the "I believe in Phil Spencer" meme. Its just a fun avatar meme, similar to the luigi hats, Kaz heads, beanies, etc.

Phil's left a good impression on me and others through twitter, recent interviews, his appearance on Giant Bomb etc.

He's not some saviour or god, but he is a likeable guy. I'm happy with the direction he is taking Xbox. Obviously it's not in the best position, and likely won't see the same success as the 360, but as long as the games keep coming, it won't affect me.

My issue mostly stemmed from people asking for Yusuf Mehdi's resignation/firing
for saying shit that alluded to XB1's original policies; folks wanting him to be tossed out,
yet are completely willing to accept Spencer because of his knack for saying shit people
want to hear. All the while assuming Spencer had minimal role in drafting the original
XB1.

Here's one of the threads I'm talking about:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=835889

 

[RexNovis]

Yes, comparing Xbox with Playstation is a offense for some people. And they always came in group. lol.

Yes well I for one like it when most people take offense to factually incorrect statements. People call BS where they see it and the XB1=PS3 equivocation is absolute BS. I have explained to you why multiple times.

 

[TheUnsunghero26]

Actually, if you go back and look at Phil's twitter over the years, he didn't really make original posts all that much about games before he got this job. For a guy who was supposedly "the games guy" at Microsoft all this time, his Twitter doesn't really show it. Plus, you'll find funny stuff like GAFers looking for jobs. (That's how I stumbled on the above post.)

Hmm? He only became head of Xbox this March. There's hundreds of tweets about games and him replying to others before he was promoted. Almost every single tweet he has is about games, not sure how his twitter doesn't show that (and why that would matter in the first place).

 

[serversurfer]

Assuming a 65% US/WW ratio then given US LTD of ~2916k, WW sales would be ~4486k of sales WW, with ~1570k outside of the US which is what you're debating.

So in the UK, MS sold ~364k units in 2013. In the US MS sold ~1817k in 2013 to 1099k in 2014 so 60% as much. Extrapolating the final bit would mean .6 * ( 364) = 220k

So possibly the install base in the UK for XB1 is now 584k. I would argue though that the UK has received the best value via pricecuts, and promotions for XB1 from anywhere relative to initial launch value. It launched at 429 GBP or about ~731 USD which is actually higher than the intial PS3 launch price there btw

Since then they have dropped the price to 379 GBP for the kinect, 389 GBP for the TF bundle, and 349 GBP for kinectless BUT they did have the TF bundle for 349 GBP for several weeks so I feel XB1 might now be putting up more of a fight there then even in the US. Hard to tell though and the software certainly suggests PS4 is winning but I dunno.

Okay, I know they've been pushing hard in the UK, but I dunno if that indicates they're sustaining sales better than the US has. The US has 60% sales in the post-launch period, but you're guessing UK is maintaining 82% momentum? I would think additional price cuts would tend to indicate sales have been worse than the US, not better. Isn't that how it usually works? Flagging sales fuel price cuts and promotions? You mentioned the UK software charts indicate PS4 is winning, but do they indicate XBone is faring any better there than in the US?

I'd say maybe 300k more [instead of 220k] in the UK so like 684k total which leaves ~1M consoles WW. I don't really think it's so hard to imagine MS has garnered 1M sales in all other countries combined

I mean

126k XB1's sold in France in 2013, 36k in Spain in 2013, 100k in Germany in 2013, 66k in Australian Launch

So while not particularly impressive it does have sales outside the US just not as much usually

Okay, those are probably the biggest markets in Tier 1.5, and that's only 328K for last year. If we apply your 60% momentum — which is hugely generous for T1.5, I'd say, especially looking at the German charts — that's still only 525K units, maybe 775K with Canada. So yeah, I do kinda find it hard to imagine they sold 1M+ in T1.5, actually. Are Mexico and Ireland likely to have bought 100K each or something?

And I'd guess post-launch momentum in T1.5 was significantly lower than US/UK to begin with, so I don't see how they're close to 4.5M worldwide.

 

[Pristine_Condition]

Hmm? He only became head of Xbox this March. There's hundreds of tweets about games and him replying to others before he was promoted. Almost every single tweet he has is about games, not sure how his twitter doesn't show that (and why that would matter in the first place).

If we are talking about pre-XBone reveal, (which I thought we were,) he didn't make too many original (not retweets) Tweets about specific games. Just by scanning his tweets from May 14, 2012 to May 21, 2013, (the day before the Xbone reveal) he made just eight total original tweets about specific games in that entire year.

...I wouldn't say that's indicative of a Twitter feed of an avid "games guy," but that's just me.

When Xbone was revealed, he did pick up the pace, and as the narrative changed, it did become more and more about games, but that year before his Twitter feed reads like "sports, sports, TV, sports, TV, TV, TV," just like the Xbone reveal.

By contrast, I'd just bet that if you went to Shu Yoshida's Twitter, you'd probably find at least twice as many tweets in the year before the PS4 where Shu was tweeting about playing some games that weren't even on a Playstation system.

 

[ethomaz]

Thanks. So the chance of Wii U out-shipping Xbox One is almost guaranteed at this point, right?

Any guesses on PS4's install base numbers anyone

If Nintendo shipped more than 700k Wii U (not hard due Mario Kart) then yes.

Right now I best guesses for PS4 are 9 million sold do consumers and ~10m shipped but unless Sony releases something we will never know because they released combined numbers (PS4 + PS3).

 

[TheUnsunghero26]

If we are talking about pre-XBone reveal, (which I thought we were,) he didn't make too many original (not retweets) Tweets about specific games. Just by scanning his tweets from May 14, 2012 to May 21, 2013, (the day before the Xbone reveal) he made just eight total original tweets about specific games in that entire year.

...I wouldn't say that's indicative of a Twitter feed of an avid "games guy," but that's just me.

When Xbone was revealed, he did pick up the pace, and as the narrative changed, it did become more and more about games, but that year before his Twitter feed reads like "sports, sports, TV, sports, TV, TV, TV," just like the Xbone reveal.

Well, here's an archive of all his tweets (excluding retweets).

I really don't see where you're getting the "TV, Sports, Sports, TV, TV etc" thing from, and I don't really see how you can judge how much of a "gamer" someone is from their twitter feed.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Well first off this is all a guessing game to be honest as we have no real worthwhile data points to build off of other then I think this market did this or I think that market did that and try to generally extrapolate YTD sales based off of past holiday sales which is an approach incredibly flawed

Okay, I know they've been pushing hard in the UK, but I dunno if that indicates they're sustaining sales better than the US has. The US has 60% sales in the post-launch period, but you're guessing UK is maintaining 82% momentum? I would think additional price cuts would tend to indicate sales have been worse than the US, not better. Isn't that how it usually works? Flagging sales fuel price cuts and promotions? You mentioned the UK software charts indicate PS4 is winning, but do they indicate XBone is faring any better there than in the US?

There were certain weeks where we had confirmation that XB1 outsold the PS4 although that might have been as little as two for all we know. A 22% change that you're asking after is all of a 80k unit difference and a significant price cut and deals could certainly do that. However you bring up a good point in why MS would need to do those moves in the first place and so you're probably right that UK sales weren't tracking as well as MS had hoped and even more so compared to the US it would seem.

Okay, those are probably the biggest markets in Tier 1.5, and that's only 328K for last year. If we apply your 60% momentum — which is hugely generous for T1.5, I'd say, especially looking at the German charts — that's still only 525K units, maybe 775K with Canada. So yeah, I do kinda find it hard to imagine they sold 1M+ in T1.5, actually. Are Mexico and Ireland likely to have bought 100K each or something?

And I'd guess post-launch momentum in T1.5 was significantly lower than US/UK to begin with, so I don't see how they're close to 4.5M worldwide.

For console sales it goes something like,

1. United States
2. United Kingdom
3. Canada
4. France
5. Germany
   
   And so on

I didn't include Japan because I honestly don't know on that one. UK and Canada as well as Germany and France are probably relatively close I would say.

As far as I'm aware Ireland actually has the biggest propensity to buy consoles of any country if memory serves but they're not a particularly large population so it'd be hard to judge their worth in that regard. Mexico is actually a big Xbox country but is relatively low income comparatively and so I would imagine it would take a while before next-gen consoles start becoming the norm there

i wouldn't be surprised if there was 100k XB1's sold in Ireland since launch but doubt it would be anything close to that in Mexico. New Zealand hasn't been included but they're likely as small as Portugal is

 

[shinra-bansho]

Guranteed in the sense we don't know shit. We know MS shipments were bad but we don't know precisely how bad. So whatever number comes out for Nintendo it's out for interpretation unless it's more than 700k.

Isn't the maximum possible number of XBO units shipped last quarter 800k. (300K brings 360 to 84M). Probably some degree of rounding there too.

 

[Death2494]

Isn't the maximum possible number of XBO units shipped last quarter 800k. (300K brings 360 to 84M). Probably some degree of rounding there too.

I honestly don't think it's that high. 360 was moving vast amounts of software during last quarter. Titanfall launched on Xbox 360 April 8th.

For those that were quoting me, I was referring to the last quarter alone. Wii U, more than likely outshipped Xbox One.

 

[DarkMaturus]

Read the linked financial statements. It's all about growth!
Bing revenue up 40%
Commercial Rev. up 13%
Devices and Consumer revenue grew 42% to $10.00 billion
Commercial cloud revenue grew 147%

As a business school graduate I can tell ya. They are doing freaking great. The whole push to cloud and mobile is working, and gaming revenue is up.
"Computing and Gaming Hardware revenue increased $274 million or 23%, driven by higher Surface and Xbox Platform revenue."

Sony has their investor Earnings Announcement on July 31. What do ya'll expect to hear? Anything to pull them from "junk-bond" status?

This generation is off to a great start....period. As X1/PS4 exclusive games hit, the push will accelerate even quicker. As AC: Unity, Witcher 3, Sunset, Halo 5, and others hit, people will make choices. As an X1 fan, I want PS4 to sell!!! Why? Cause MS has so much damn money they will fight to hook me up even more. (i.e. free games, cheaper live, that whole Gamestop money blowout). Plus, as we ditch last gen, new games will get the true next gen attention from devs. So stop this damn hate bs. Ceasefire. Wish the competitor goodluck, cause all it does it help you personally.

 

[Abdiel]

Read the linked financial statements. It's all about growth!
Bing revenue up 40%
Commercial Rev. up 13%
Devices and Consumer revenue grew 42% to $10.00 billion
Commercial cloud revenue grew 147%

As a business school graduate I can tell ya. They are doing freaking great. The whole push to cloud and mobile is working, and gaming revenue is up.
"Computing and Gaming Hardware revenue increased $274 million or 23%, driven by higher Surface and Xbox Platform revenue."

Sony has their investor Earnings Announcement on July 31. What do ya'll expect to hear? Anything to pull them from "junk-bond" status?

This generation is off to a great start....period. As X1/PS4 exclusive games hit, the push will accelerate even quicker. As AC: Unity, Witcher 3, Sunset, Halo 5, and others hit, people will make choices. As an X1 fan, I want PS4 to sell!!! Why? Cause MS has so much damn money they will fight to hook me up even more. (i.e. free games, cheaper live, that whole Gamestop money blowout). Plus, as we ditch last gen, new games will get the true next gen attention from devs. So stop this damn hate bs. Ceasefire. Wish the competitor goodluck, cause all it does it help you personally.

Why do people continue to think that just because Microsoft, as a huge corporation with a lot of funds on hand, will just throw endless amounts of capital into the Xbox hand over fist? That's bad business, and even worse logic. Corporations look to remain profitable with their endeavors, and Xbox is a tiny fraction of their actual earnings. A pittance, really, and to start throwing that kind of cash into the division is to tank any remaining chance of profits. To what? Still come in second place, but by a less ridiculous margin?

And you seem to be bad at interpreting things. Some of our local stores had a end of the month 'send back' shipment, where excess product is sent back to the warehouses, either to be re-distributed, or be 'bought back' by the manufacturer. Some of our original remaining Kinect SKU packs (Standard SKU, not TF) XB1s were on those shipments. Does this mean MS is buying back the old SKUs? I can't track those exact shipments after they leave the stores, but considering we had some of that inventory sitting there for well over 2 months, it seems likely.

What does this translate to? MS was able to make some serious numbers in the initial launch, but they are not sustaining momentum. We're not getting big shipments anymore, cause even smaller shipments last us longer. That's not good for MS. That means that our stores aren't needing as much inventory, and if we're sending back old inventory, that's even worse. Do I think this is doom and gloom? Not necessarily. It just doesn't sign off on sunshine and roses.

 

[rokkerkory]

Just thinking out loud here. Since we haven't had a real pic drop here, we might see a price drop this year if this continues. Great for me.

$350 n $450 would be awesome.

 

[DarkMaturus]

Just thinking out loud here. Since we haven't had a real pic drop here, we might see a price drop this year if this continues. Great for me.

$350 n $450 would be awesome.

You can find great deals. Here's some good sites:

http://www.fatwallet.com/xbox-one-deals/
http://slickdeals.net/

 

[serversurfer]

Well first off this is all a guessing game to be honest as we have no real worthwhile data points to build off of other then I think this market did this or I think that market did that and try to generally extrapolate YTD sales based off of past holiday sales which is an approach incredibly flawed

True enough. Lemme try to explain my position like this. We had 60% US concentration after the holidays, and we're assuming that concentration has increased to 65%, since their non-US interest seems to be lacking, implying a higher concentration of post-launch sales in the US, or more accurately, lesser sales in places like Germany and France. Yes?

Well, 65% concentration means 1570K non-US sales since launch, but to get anywhere close to that number, you need to assume the non-US sales are running better than the 60% post-launch momentum they're carrying in the US, like your 82% momentum in the UK, and "they may be doing quite well in those other countries for all we know." Yes?

But, if we're assuming non-US momentum must be higher than the US' 60% "or where else would the 1.6M come from," then that would mean US concentration would be decreasing — since it's selling even faster elsewhere — and our entire premise is that it's likely increased.

Now do you see why I'm saying the numbers don't really add up? Or rather, they could add up, but only at higher US concentrations and lower total WW sales. We're turning the knob the right direction, but I don't think we've turned it enough to line up with the limited reports we've gotten from outside the US.



Oh, specifically regarding Ireland, it's only 10% the size of the UK, and the only stuff I could find about them buying more consoles per capita than anywhere else is this saying at one point there were more PS2s per capita in Ireland than in Japan, and this saying Ireland had pre-ordered more PS4s per capita "than any other country," though this was after the NA launch. Anyway, are we sure Ireland isn't Sonyland? Do you have any other links?


Edit: Hi, Adiel!! (^.^)/ How's the stock on the new XBone SKU? You're not gonna run out, are you??

 

[CoG]

Why do people continue to think that just because Microsoft, as a huge corporation with a lot of funds on hand, will just throw endless amounts of capital into the Xbox hand over fist? That's bad business, and even worse logic. Corporations look to remain profitable with their endeavors, and Xbox is a tiny fraction of their actual earnings. A pittance, really, and to start throwing that kind of cash into the division is to tank any remaining chance of profits. To what? Still come in second place, but by a less ridiculous margin?

The "keep throwing money at it" strategy made sense when the goal was to win the living room. That dream is now over. A $400 game console has zero chance of winning the living room against $35 Chromecast, $99 Apple TV and Fire TV, plus smart features in nearly every TV sold.

When the first Xbox shipped nearly 13 years ago that strategy made sense. When it didn't pan out we kept hearing that MS was in it for the "long game". The 360 also didn't win the living room yet people kept running the long game line. How long do they need?

Apple took over the smartphone market overnight. If you can't do it in < 5 years, you know what? It's not going to happen. Thinking the Xbox is a genius strategy that is unfolding over the course of nearly 1.5 decades is as insane as misterxmedia thinking there are stacked GPUs in the Xbox One.

The only hope the Xbox One has is to win marketshare in the US. They will most likely end up #2 unless some miracle has them close the gap with the PS4. For the rest of the world it's game over. So Satya has to figure out if he continues pump money into a second place console in the US only indefinitely. I think MS exits the console space this gen and licenses Halo et al. out next time around.

 

[Welfare]

I honestly don't think it's that high. 360 was moving vast amounts of software during last quarter. Titanfall launched on Xbox 360 April 8th.

For those that were quoting me, I was referring to the last quarter alone. Wii U, more than likely outshipped Xbox One.

Yeah, April 8th. MS announced it hit 84 million in JUNE. So thats 2 months for 300k. 360 isn't going to jump 250k in one month, so 400-500k is most likely for 360, leaving the rest for the One.

I just don't see Wii U out shipping Xbox One last quarter.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Read the linked financial statements. It's all about growth!
Bing revenue up 40%
Commercial Rev. up 13%
Devices and Consumer revenue grew 42% to $10.00 billion
Commercial cloud revenue grew 147%

As a business school graduate I can tell ya. They are doing freaking great. The whole push to cloud and mobile is working, and gaming revenue is up.
"Computing and Gaming Hardware revenue increased $274 million or 23%, driven by higher Surface and Xbox Platform revenue."

Sony has their investor Earnings Announcement on July 31. What do ya'll expect to hear? Anything to pull them from "junk-bond" status?

This generation is off to a great start....period. As X1/PS4 exclusive games hit, the push will accelerate even quicker. As AC: Unity, Witcher 3, Sunset, Halo 5, and others hit, people will make choices. As an X1 fan, I want PS4 to sell!!! Why? Cause MS has so much damn money they will fight to hook me up even more. (i.e. free games, cheaper live, that whole Gamestop money blowout). Plus, as we ditch last gen, new games will get the true next gen attention from devs. So stop this damn hate bs. Ceasefire. Wish the competitor goodluck, cause all it does it help you personally.

Your status as a business school graduate is dubious....

You conveniently left out the fact that MS underdelivered on profits. They missed their target. Also, Surface did worse than last quarter. MS earned $408M in Surface revenue this quarter. Last quarter, MS earned $500M in Surface revenue.

How MS does as a whole =/= How the Xbox is doing/will do. X1 is doing considerably worse than its predecessor. There's a possibility that the 360 is leading the X1 only after their first 7-8 months. From January to June, X1 + 360 shipped 3.1 million. It was confirmed previous quarter that 800k 360s were shipped. From the members of GAF, X1 might have sold less than half of the announced 1.1 million figure. Doing the math, the X1 has shipped less than 1.75 million units. That is half of the 3.5 million shipped 360s from its first January to June period.

 

[Renekton]

Why do people continue to think that just because Microsoft, as a huge corporation with a lot of funds on hand, will just throw endless amounts of capital into the Xbox hand over fist? That's bad business, and even worse logic. Corporations look to remain profitable with their endeavors, and Xbox is a tiny fraction of their actual earnings. A pittance, really, and to start throwing that kind of cash into the division is to tank any remaining chance of profits. To what? Still come in second place, but by a less ridiculous margin?

This "common sense" argument ignores gaming history where some successful consoles were sold at loss to gain market share, then recouped through software royalties (increased by said gained market share) and cost-savings from later manufacturing improvements.

 

[A_Gorilla]

This "common sense" argument ignores gaming history where some successful consoles were sold at loss to gain market share, then recouped through software royalties (increased by said gained market share) and cost-savings from later manufacturing improvements.

The era of loss leading consoles ended with the current global financial crisis as well as Sony's current money woes. Nintendo never did, Sega got destroyed for doing it, and Sony just can't afford to do it either hence the off the shelf PC parts for the PS4. MS could, but seeing as how we don't have a $299 XB1 model already its clear to they don't want to.

 

[spatenfloot]

This "common sense" argument ignores gaming history where some successful consoles were sold at loss to gain market share, then recouped through software royalties (increased by said gained market share) and cost-savings from later manufacturing improvements.

It is obvious by the design of the new consoles that neither company has any intention of doing that this gen.

 

[SwiftDeath]

True enough. Lemme try to explain my position like this. We had 60% US concentration after the holidays, and we're assuming that concentration has increased to 65%, since their non-US interest seems to be lacking, implying a higher concentration of post-launch sales in the US, or more accurately, lesser sales in places like Germany and France. Yes?

Well, 65% concentration means 1570K non-US sales since launch, but to get anywhere close to that number, you need to assume the non-US sales are running better than the 60% post-launch momentum they're carrying in the US, like your 82% momentum in the UK, and "they may be doing quite well in those other countries for all we know." Yes?

But, if we're assuming non-US momentum must be higher than the US' 60% "or where else would the 1.6M come from," then that would mean US concentration would be decreasing &#8212; since it's selling even faster elsewhere &#8212; and our entire premise is that it's likely increased.

Now do you see why I'm saying the numbers don't really add up? Or rather, they could add up, but only at higher US concentrations and lower total WW sales. We're turning the knob the right direction, but I don't think we've turned it enough to line up with the limited reports we've gotten from outside the US.

Server not to be rude but the problem with your argument is that it fails to explain the initial numbers we're trying to build off of.

We have these numbers to work with for XB1 sales.

US 2013 YTD = 1817k
WW 2013 YTD = 3000k

US:WW 2013 YTD = 60.56%

And here's the most important part: ROTW 2013 YTD = 1183k

So 1183k - 364k in UK - 126k in France - 100k in Germany - 66k in Australia at launch - 36k in Spain

So that's what? 491k outside of the US, UK, France, Germany, Spain and Australia [at launch] not accounted for? 500,000 XB1's or a sixth of the XB1's sales to consumers [at the time] we have no numbers for? Roughly 41.5% of MS's ROTW numbers [for 2013 YTD] are outside of the countries we have any numbers for

So let's try again

US 2014 YTD = 1099k -> Assuming 65% of sales are in the US -> WW 2014 YTD = 1691k

WW LTD -> 4691k [3000k + 1691k] [Changed to YTD based estimation because it's more accurate]

Thus ROTW LTD = 4691k - 2916k = 1775k -> ROTW 2014 YTD = 592k [ 1775k - 1183k]

So by combining 2013 YTD for the Rest of the World countries that gave numbers we have roughly 692k units accounted for

Following US sales trajectory then it would be down roughly 39.5% from 2013's YTD's

Thus ROTW [that had numbers] 2014 YTD -> 418.5k [692k * (.605)]

Now adjusting for the obfuscated tracking as shown above

418.5k * 1.415 = 592k -> Estimated ROTW 2014 YTD

Wow that actually worked? 0_0

I think you get my overarching point though. I should mention somewhere that the amount of assumptions used in this post would block out the sun etc.

Oh, specifically regarding Ireland, it's only 10% the size of the UK, and the only stuff I could find about them buying more consoles per capita than anywhere else is this saying at one point there were more PS2s per capita in Ireland than in Japan, and this saying Ireland had pre-ordered more PS4s per capita "than any other country," though this was after the NA launch. Anyway, are we sure Ireland isn't Sonyland? Do you have any other links?

It's been a while since I looked and I never claimed Ireland was pro xbox or playstation as I don't know, simply that they are often mentioned as being one of the countries with the highest propensity to purchase consoles per capita. But yeah I thought they were a small market

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

I don't get why some are so quick to berate the "I believe in Phil Spencer" meme. Its just a fun avatar meme, similar to the luigi hats, Kaz heads, beanies, etc.

There hasn't been endless new threads every time the Infamous beanie posts a new tweet though, or people high-fiving the Luigi stare for bringing the games.

 

[mrklaw]

Kinect was never a games focus for the XB1 though, it's an OS focus. The number of Kinect games in the pipeline now vs. announce or last years E3 is basically the same.

Shutting down "XBOX Entertainment Studios" has zero to do with the console itself being an all-in-one media machine, which it still is. Saying it's no longer a priority or focus does not match up with reality -- for example, simply look at the monthly OS updates. MS realizing that producing original entertainment exclusively for a console was a stupid idea does not change that,

The system still has all the differentiating features that it had. They are focusing their messaging and marketing on games, like most everyone here wanted them to do -- I readily admit that. I don't agree that it can be characterized as a different console. That implies that somehow features were lost -- they weren't. All of that stuff is still there and steadily being augmented.

If you remove kinect, the only difference between Xbox and PS4 as a 'media machine' is the TVs pass through. And PS3 had play TV and Torne (PS4 has Torne too), and PS4 is dish hopper compatible, so sony's choice for live TV is to use an accessory or have TV over IP.

I do expect that gap to widen if MS gets their 'one windows' off the ground and opens the Xbox to tons of windows 8 apps - that could be huge. But for now at least they are pretty similar

 

[soulassssns]

Still going to buy an X1 soon.

 

[Raist]

Oh, specifically regarding Ireland,iit's only 10% the size of the UK, and the only stuff I could find about them buying more consoles per capita than anywhere else is this saying at one point there were more PS2s per capita in Ireland than in Japan, and this saying Ireland had pre-ordered more PS4s per capita "than any other country," though this was after the NA launch. Anyway, are we sure Ireland isn't Sonyland? Do you have any other links?

Ireland is more like 10% of France/Germany. I don't know if there's much data out there apart from global market values. We used to have Irish charts via Chart-Track, but they stopped now. Anyway, they were All Format charts, so it's hard to tell if there's a strong bias towards one console. Paging Gofreak.

 

[MilkyJoe]

I'm still perplexed as to what the entire point of this was, I mean I get the goal of MS with it, but the fact that no one thought to say "hang on a minute chaps, you can get Internet, Facebook, Skype, NetFLicks, You Tube etc.. on your TV already, have you not seen these...

And they come with Wiimote style wands...

I have an XBone, for the life of me I don't know why I didn't just sell it when I had the chance... anyway... if I am going to use one of the Apps above I am going to use the TV, I could be watching that film on Netflicks before the xbone has even booted.

Already have a TV? want the apps? $500 on an Xbox or $100 on a smart Bluray player ?

I dunno... maybe this whole mess is a good thing. MS tried the living room shit, totally misread the market, and now they have to peddle this piece of crap... So maybe all contenders will think twice next gen, realise that people want consoles for games first.

 

[Bgamer90]

I'm still perplexed as to what the entire point of this was, I mean I get the goal of MS with it, but the fact that no one thought to say "hang on a minute chaps, you can get Internet, Facebook, Skype, NetFLicks, You Tube etc.. on your TV already, have you not seen these...

And they come with Wiimote style wands...

I have an XBone, for the life of me I don't know why I didn't just sell it when I had the chance... anyway... if I am going to use one of the Apps above I am going to use the TV, I could be watching that film on Netflicks before the xbone has even booted.

Already have a TV? want the apps? $500 on an Xbox or $100 on a smart Bluray player ?

I dunno... maybe this whole mess is a good thing. MS tried the living room shit, totally misread the market, and now they have to peddle this piece of crap... So maybe all contenders will think twice next gen, realise that people want consoles for games first.

The thing with this is that MS originally pushed the Xbox One as media box that also has AAA games (e.g.: Call of Duty during the system's reveal). That's something that those cheaper media boxes don't have. MS is still definitely focused on media with the Xbox One (as recent updates as well as updates coming in the future have shown) but it has obviously taken a backseat -- it's not at the forefront anymore.

And in terms of smart TVs, many of them have pretty terrible user interfaces from my experience.

 

[freefornow]

And in terms of smart TVs, many of them have pretty terrible user interfaces from my experience.

And not every gamer has one with many I know gaming on monitors (console).

 

[kinoki]

The thing with this is that MS originally pushed the Xbox One as media box that also has AAA games (e.g.: Call of Duty during the system's reveal). That's something that those cheaper media boxes don't have. MS is still definitely focused on media with the Xbox Onw (as recent updates as well as updates coming in the future have shown) but it has obviously taken a backseat -- it's not at the forefront anymore.

And in terms of smart TVs, many of them have pretty terrible user interfaces from my experience.

What I think is interesting is that Sony seem to be targeting the Smart TV crowd with PlayStation Now. Buy a controller and you're set. We'll see if it takes off.

 

[Clintizzle]

Wow this thread.

 

[Bgamer90]

Just thinking out loud here. Since we haven't had a real pic drop here, we might see a price drop this year if this continues. Great for me.

$350 n $450 would be awesome.

Don't think we will see an official price drop this year (think we will see it next year) but I'm positive that there will be many Xbox One deals this holiday season. Deals on games, SKUs, bundles, etc.
____________________

And not every gamer has one with many I know gaming on monitors (console).

Yep. I know with me, I purposely bought a TV that didn't have apps since it was cheaper. Didn't see the point when I already had the apps on my console.

 

[MilkyJoe]

The thing with this is that MS originally pushed the Xbox One as media box that also has AAA games. That's something that those cheaper media boxes don't have. They are still definitely focused on media (as recent updates as well as updates coming in the future have shown) but it has obviously taken a backseat -- it's not at the forefront anymore.

And in terms of smart TVs, many of them have pretty terrible user interfaces from my experience.

Agreed, but the point is that people that are interested in AAA games are the gamers, the TV only people would buy the TV or the Bluray player, the Gamers seemed to have mostly gone for the better, cheaper console option. That's why I feel this is a product that came too late to the party regarding it's media features and under-dressed regarding it's gaming capabilities. Under-dressed but not turned away, just kinda sitting in the corner feeling a bit out of place...

Yeah some are a bit clunky, My tv is perfectly fine, my blu ray player is a bit slow, but it came free with the TV so I have no need to use it for anything other than a BR player anyway. My mothers Sony BR player is far from clunky, it is as if it's soul purpose is to search Love film & Netflicks. That was only £90 if memory serves.

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

Wow this thread.

You can't just say that and not tell us which side of the argument you're falling on.

 

[stonesak]

Of course GAF rushes immediately to unfounded conclusions. We haven't even gotten the full numbers yet, and the consoles haven’t even been out a full year, and yet GAF is still ready to proclaim this generation's winner.

I’m not dismissing raw sales numbers. I’m stating – as I have stated from the beginning – that the sales delta between the two platforms is not as great as the raw numbers lead the average consumer to believe. There are absolute sales numbers for XBO not fully understood, and there are things about PS4 numbers as well, that bring the two systems into balance.

People DO understand that Microsoft has some of the smartest game developers IN THE WORLD. They CREATED Halo, the standard console FPS that everyone else has been apeing for years. So while people laude Sony for their HW skills, do you really think MS don’t know how to build a game optimized for maximizing console sales? Seriously? There is no way they're giving up a 30%+ sales advantage to Sony. And ANYONE who has been involved in an Online console warz discussion could say there is a sizable number of fans for both systems. If there was really a huge installed base difference – it would be obvious.

I get a ton of hate for saying this – but it’s been the same EVERY generation. Sony fans claim more sales for their system, they did it with the PS3, saying last year it had surpassed the 360 worldwide, and they are doing it again. And, in the end, console sales for Microsoft's system ended up the same or better.

I’m not saying Sony haven’t built a good system – I’m merely saying that anyone who wants to die on their sword over this 30%+ sales advantage are going to be fighting an uphill battle over the next 10 years…

Spoiler

Credit goes to hydrophilic attack for the epic post.

PS3 at 599 was expensive but you did get a high quality blue ray player that is still great to this day. At the time you were EASILY getting 100 dollar movie player.

Xbox one does not benefit from any vale add in like this.

Kinect 2.0 can see my junk. Put a price on that.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Of course GAF rushes immediately to unfounded conclusions. We haven't even gotten the full numbers yet, and the consoles haven’t even been out a full year, and yet GAF is still ready to proclaim this generation's winner.

I’m not dismissing raw sales numbers. I’m stating – as I have stated from the beginning – that the sales delta between the two platforms is not as great as the raw numbers lead the average consumer to believe. There are absolute sales numbers for XBO not fully understood, and there are things about PS4 numbers as well, that bring the two systems into balance.

People DO understand that Microsoft has some of the smartest game developers IN THE WORLD. They CREATED Halo, the standard console FPS that everyone else has been apeing for years. So while people laude Sony for their HW skills, do you really think MS don’t know how to build a game optimized for maximizing console sales? Seriously? There is no way they're giving up a 30%+ sales advantage to Sony. And ANYONE who has been involved in an Online console warz discussion could say there is a sizable number of fans for both systems. If there was really a huge installed base difference – it would be obvious.

I get a ton of hate for saying this – but it’s been the same EVERY generation. Sony fans claim more sales for their system, they did it with the PS3, saying last year it had surpassed the 360 worldwide, and they are doing it again. And, in the end, console sales for Microsoft's system ended up the same or better.

I’m not saying Sony haven’t built a good system – I’m merely saying that anyone who wants to die on their sword over this 30%+ sales advantage are going to be fighting an uphill battle over the next 10 years…

Spoiler

Credit goes to hydrophilic attack for the epic post.

Thats was actually a parody of what an actual MS employee said lol : Penello.

I think its clear PS4 is going to "win" this generation.

 

[BKK]

Ireland is more like 10% of France/Germany. I don't know if there's much data out there apart from global market values. We used to have Irish charts via Chart-Track, but they stopped now. Anyway, they were All Format charts, so it's hard to tell if there's a strong bias towards one console. Paging Gofreak.

Ireland is ~5% of the UK market going by software unit sales;

     IR   UK
2008 4.2m 83.2m (5.0%)
2009 4.0m 74.7m (5.4%)
2010 3.3m 62.9m (5.2%)

http://web.archive.org/web/20110428110937/http://www.eraltd.org/downloads/stats/IrishMarket.pdf
http://web.archive.org/web/20110515192453/http://www.eraltd.org/downloads/stats/GamesMarket.pdf

 

[Xando]

I mean

126k XB1's sold in France in 2013, 36k in Spain in 2013, 100k in Germany in 2013, 66k in Australian Launch

So while not particularly impressive it does have sales outside the US just not as much usually

As much as i heard from my local Gamestop XB1 sales fell from a cliff in 2014 here in Germany. Now i dont now if this is the case everywhere in Germany but its the biggest Gamestop in Germanys 2nd largest city (Hamburg).

 

[Game Guru]

Agreed, but the point is that people that are interested in AAA games are the gamers, the TV only people would buy the TV or the Bluray player, the Gamers seemed to have mostly gone for the better, cheaper console option. That's why I feel this is a product that came too late to the party regarding it's media features and under-dressed regarding it's gaming capabilities. Under-dressed but not turned away, just kinda sitting in the corner feeling a bit out of place...

Yeah some are a bit clunky, My tv is perfectly fine, my blu ray player is a bit slow, but it came free with the TV so I have no need to use it for anything other than a BR player anyway. My mothers Sony BR player is far from clunky, it is as if it's soul purpose is to search Love film & Netflicks. That was only £90 if memory serves.

Yep... That was MS's big issue... While in prior generations, the media functions were a value add that made buying a console worth it, this generation has tons of Smart TVs, set top boxes, and Blu-Ray Players that can do those same media functions which leaves gamers as the only ones who will buy a console.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

I'm still perplexed as to what the entire point of this was, I mean I get the goal of MS with it, but the fact that no one thought to say "hang on a minute chaps, you can get Internet, Facebook, Skype, NetFLicks, You Tube etc.. on your TV already, have you not seen these...

Applying my most cynical possible filter, the purpose of the initial launch plan Xbox One was a method of displaying adverts to a consumer without having to produce any content of their own.

They created a box that would sit between your actual TV box and your television, that would enable them to apply an additional highly targetted advertising layer, but without having to enter the TV provision sector. Despite not providing product, the use of kinect would allow for extremely accurate measurements of user attention, and user demographics, and as the box was its own 'layer' could display adverts directly at any time the box is active, rather than waiting for a traditional commercial break, or even apply adverts to ad-free content (such as netflix).

As a system with better than average targetting of consumers, and of better than average visibility of adverts, advertising space could command a premium revenue.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Applying my most cynical possible filter, the purpose of the initial launch plan Xbox One was a method of displaying adverts to a consumer without having to produce any content of their own.

They created a box that would sit between your actual TV box and your television, that would enable them to apply an additional highly targetted advertising layer, but without having to enter the TV provision sector. Despite not providing product, the use of kinect would allow for extremely accurate measurements of user attention, and user demographics, and as the box was its own 'layer' could display adverts directly at any time the box is active, rather than waiting for a traditional commercial break, or even apply adverts to ad-free content (such as netflix).

As a system with better than average targetting of consumers, and of better than average visibility of adverts, advertising space could command a premium revenue.

Yeah, the whole concept of the Xbox One is built around reinserting themselves, their ads and their services and their interests into usage patterns that have completely passed them by. That includes plastering their own ads on top of your cable TV's ads, but also trying to put smart-phone style apps on your TV screen to do exactly what people use their smartphones and tablets for while they're watching TV. Both are utterly unneeded and benefit no one but Microsoft.

Just think about this: Threes! was announced as an ID@Xbox game and had a ton of people talking about how great it will be to snap the game so they can play it while they watch TV. Except I play Threes! while I watch TV all the time, and I don't have to waste a third of my TV screen to do so. That kind of experience is immeasurably better on a secondary device like a phone or tablet. Microsoft is just desperate to roll the clock back on things we all of us have been able to do for years and act like it's innovation.

 

[Percy]

As a business school graduate I can tell ya. They are doing freaking great.

I almost choked on my latte at this.

 

[Nokterian]

The thing with this is that MS originally pushed the Xbox One as media box that also has AAA games (e.g.: Call of Duty during the system's reveal). That's something that those cheaper media boxes don't have. MS is still definitely focused on media with the Xbox One (as recent updates as well as updates coming in the future have shown) but it has obviously taken a backseat -- it's not at the forefront anymore.

And in terms of smart TVs, many of them have pretty terrible user interfaces from my experience.

I got this new Sony Bravia KDL 40W 605 BBAEP.

When using the menu and even Netflix for example it's exactly the same as on PS3/4. Works amazing also have Youtube and Pathé home (that's VOD) for example. Interface is pretty slick and i use my phone as a remote to navigate through menu's etc. Yes there are terrible tv's but this one to me takes the cake in terms of navigation and how to handle it properly.

 

[jelly]

Applying my most cynical possible filter, the purpose of the initial launch plan Xbox One was a method of displaying adverts to a consumer without having to produce any content of their own.

They created a box that would sit between your actual TV box and your television, that would enable them to apply an additional highly targetted advertising layer, but without having to enter the TV provision sector. Despite not providing product, the use of kinect would allow for extremely accurate measurements of user attention, and user demographics, and as the box was its own 'layer' could display adverts directly at any time the box is active, rather than waiting for a traditional commercial break, or even apply adverts to ad-free content (such as netflix).

As a system with better than average targetting of consumers, and of better than average visibility of adverts, advertising space could command a premium revenue.

Yeah, the whole concept of the Xbox One is built around reinserting themselves, their ads and their services and their interests into usage patterns that have completely passed them by. That includes plastering their own ads on top of your cable TV's ads, but also trying to put smart-phone style apps on your TV screen to do exactly what people use their smartphones and tablets for while they're watching TV. Both are utterly unneeded and benefit no one but Microsoft.

Just think about this: Threes! was announced as an ID@Xbox game and had a ton of people talking about how great it will be to snap the game so they can play it while they watch TV. Except I play Threes! while I watch TV all the time, and I don't have to waste a third of my TV screen to do so. That kind of experience is immeasurably better on a secondary device like a phone or tablet. Microsoft is just desperate to roll the clock back on things we all of us have been able to do for years and act like it's innovation.

It's so hard to imagine they thought it had a chance, that clueless is actually scary. The water coolers were spiked.

 

[mrklaw]

I got this new Sony Bravia KDL 40W 605 BBAEP.

When using the menu and even Netflix for example it's exactly the same as on PS3/4. Works amazing also have Youtube and Pathé home (that's VOD) for example. Interface is pretty slick and i use my phone as a remote to navigate through menu's etc. Yes there are terrible tv's but this one to me takes the cake in terms of navigation and how to handle it properly.

I just use netflix/youtube on my ipad and cast it to the TV - it'll have DiAl which is basically the same tech as chromecast only without the snappy marketing name.

Thats the problem I have with many smart TVs - the need to choose the app to use, then find the content you want. I want it the other way round. The original Xbox One reveal showed pinned shows and you could see whether it was on TV, or on one of your installed media apps. Thats what I want (and what it doesn't yet offer)

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

Look for threads here in 2007 talking about shipments. Pretty sure X360 thread will follow the "MS stuffing the channel".. "That seems low numbers", while PS3 threads will be "Good numbers. Go Sony".. "catching up the X360".

You're honestly trying to imply this site is hard on MS last gen when we STILL have threads asking who won gen 7, when Nintendo still has as +15 million unit lead? If there was any bias at all last gen on GAF, it was against the Wii.

Just because YOU frequent MS threads and see downplaying, doesn't mean it didnt happen to the others, ESPECIALLY Nintendo.

Fact is, Gaffers are critical of everything, and MS isn't some special snowflake that can avoid pessimism. Happened to Sony, happened to Nintendo (the most), and it happened to Microsoft.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

It's so hard to imagine they thought it had a chance, that clueless is actually scary. The water coolers were spiked.

Bear in mind we live in a world where people embrace Android as an OS, which is solely designed to maintain Googles search presence and advertising revenues

 

[MilkyJoe]

Applying my most cynical possible filter, the purpose of the initial launch plan Xbox One was a method of displaying adverts to a consumer without having to produce any content of their own.

They created a box that would sit between your actual TV box and your television, that would enable them to apply an additional highly targetted advertising layer, but without having to enter the TV provision sector. Despite not providing product, the use of kinect would allow for extremely accurate measurements of user attention, and user demographics, and as the box was its own 'layer' could display adverts directly at any time the box is active, rather than waiting for a traditional commercial break, or even apply adverts to ad-free content (such as netflix).

As a system with better than average targetting of consumers, and of better than average visibility of adverts, advertising space could command a premium revenue.

From day one I thought this, I'd get called a cynic, but that's the end game of controlling the living room. Nice to see a fellow tinfoil hatter...

 

[Panajev2001a]

From day one I thought this, I'd get called a cynic, but that's the end game of controlling the living room. Nice to see a fellow tinfoil hatter...

I think his/her analysis is actually a very fair assessment of the Xbox One strategy, it backfired but they did have their business case made for the strategy they took.

 

[Majine]

I hope sales pick up. Owner of an XBO and I am fairly happy with it.