Well, I suppose so, yes. I just find it hard to believe we got sales reports from the biggest countries outside of the US and UK, and somehow the smaller countries totaled still more sales. I found the 3M figure hard to swallow at the time, and I guess I feel like then multiplying it out simply illustrates my point that there's no way Italy is buying this many XBones.
Actually your wording is incorrect because we have no data that objectively proves theres "
no way Italy is buying this many XB1's". Is it unlikely XB1 has sold 10M units in Italy alone? Sure that's has an almost 0% probability but we don't
know that. [10M is purposeful hyperbole btw
]
Besides its Italy, Australia [not including launch], Austria, Brazil, Canada, Ireland, Mexico and New Zeland.
I just don't see the rationale in MS lying about 3M consoles sold WW when like a day later they were shown up by Sony's 4.2M announcement
I'm not saying the burden of proof is on you. I suppose the burden of proof would be on MS. I'm saying that, by your own admission, the original data is completely unsupported, so I would think you would be similarly skeptical about its accuracy, especially in light of the fact that your own machinations seem to highlight flaws in the original methodology of, "Let's believe whatever MS tell us." It's not really "empirical data," BTW. They themselves called it "internal estimates," and it was produced within hours of the year actually ending, as I recall. Anyway.
There is no empirical data that argues that MS lied about the 3M numbers. There is literally a lack of data on the subject. You realize that right? So the only "supported" argument is that MS sold 3M WW in that timeframe by MS's admission and you can choose to believe that or not. But the lack of numbers from other regions doesn't somehow support MS was lying.
As per my belief on MS's 3M WW announcement, it's clearly internal data because it has to be just like PS4 or Wii U WW numbers since not all markets are tracked accurately or at all. I think they were close enough to announce it so at best they had good data on hitting 2.8M or 2.9M and projected the last 100k or 200k. That's as far as my disbelief on the matter goes.
Right, and the actual ratio is basically the only thing we disagree on. Your estimates are based on the ratio shifting from 60% at launch as much as five points to 65% now. I'm saying that MS "estimates" may have been a little off, and the ratio has instead gone from 64% at launch to 68% currently.
Ok? So changing up past data that we've been given to better fit your estimation better fits your estimation? If you expect WW XB1 sales to be around 4.2M right now then yes a 64% US:WW sales ratio would better lead to that outcome but that doesn't mean it's anymore accurate than anything else I've seen and honestly has less weight behind it
Neither of us will ever know the truth, but it seems like my sales are at least easier to explain, at launch and especially now.
How? All you're saying is I don't think MS sold, I don't know, around 500k in Italy, Australia [not including launch day], Austria, Brazil, Canada, Ireland, Mexico and New Zeland through YTD 2013. That's the crux of our "argument". There's nothing "easier" about it, you simply hold a different opinion to me on the matter.
Sorry, I didn't mean to mischaracterize what you were saying. It seemed like you were stuck on a minimum of 4.5M to date, but instead it sounds like you're stuck on a minimum of 3M in 2013, which is perfectly reasonable, if you don't look too hard at the numbers.
No worries I simply wanted to clarify I never made that assumption.
However I have looked more into the 3M numbers than most as clearly shown by my continued correspondence in this thread with you. We're again still pretty much arguing about a "phantom" 500k that "couldn't possibly" have been sold in the unaccounted for regions of Italy, Australia [not including launch day], Austria, Brazil, Canada, Ireland, Mexico and New Zeland through YTD 2013.
So forgive me if I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume the 3M number is correct or close enough to assume so.
My bad.
You posted 8.68M, but I remembered 8.86M several hours later. ><
It's fine. I've made several different PS4 WW estimates recently, the one I think is most accurate is probably 8.68M til end of June although it's very possible it's quite a bit higher with maybe European stock being readily available for some months now. Hard to say
As I said, I never saw the original claims. I showed up late to the 3M thread, asking how they got to 3M and was told that "insiders" had pegged it at 2.8M. That's all I know, but it made sense then, and seems to make even more sense now.
That's like your opinion though? Without any sort of supporting evidence
Well, software splits would suggest a lower estimate for the number of XBones out there, especially if, as NPD suggests, XBone owners buy more games per console. If they're all buying extra games, their software share should exceed their hardware share, right?
But you don't how much more XB1 owners buy over PS4 owners at a WW level, nor do you know if purchasing habits of XB1 buyers are the same in the ROTW as they are in the US. Maybe in the US XB1 is mostly primary consoles whereas in ROTW [or Germany] it's a secondary console.
You are making large assumptions which while certainly not impossible by any means do not have anything but your own opinion and subjective data to back it up.
IE I'm pretty damn sure that in Germany, PS4 is selling much better than XB1 relative to the holiday months but that's a subjective take on it that I can't accurately adjust my numbers for.
I'd actually considered that, but I think it's too early in the generation to have had much effect on the PS4/XBone split, apart from simply making people decide to buy the PS4 in the first place, I suppose. This early in the generation, I can't imagine there are tens of thousands of people who own both platforms, so I don't think there are a significant number of people saying, "Okay, I'll get Black Flag for my PS4, and Ghosts on the Bone." I think that nine months in, people are just buying for whatever platform they have, even if they'll eventually "get the other one once the price drops." Even those that do already own both, they're gonna favor one or the other for their multiplats, and if they're already choosing their PS4, why would that suddenly change mid-generation?
Uh maybe the co-marketing encouraged a lot of people who already own PS4 to buy Watch Dogs while not encouraging to the same extent a lot of XB1 owners? Or are you suggesting that the absolute number of sales of Watch Dogs on PS4 would be the same with or without the co-marketing?
In other words I imagine the marketing deal led to a greater attach rate on PS4 for it and a lower attach rate on XB1 as would follow logicially
