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[LiquidSolid]

A large multinational corporation talking about the sales of its newest hardware product holds a lot more weight to me then any particular forum poster with no inside information or track record.

It doesn't matter at the end of the day if you don't think there could be I don't know 300k or 400k consoles sold in the likes of Brazil, Italy, Australia, NZ etc. last year because that by itself will always be some personal opinion.

MS announcing 3M is not. It's a carefully planned corporate strategy and I don't understand how you can't see the difference?

Is it possible that MS intentionally lied about the 3M number? Sure it's possible but I don't see why it would be worth it to them. They were almost immediately quieted by Sony's announcement. They had to have known they would be below Sony's numbers easily

Weren't January Xbone sales horrendous because NPD counts returned systems as negative sales? Maybe Microsoft's counting those systems as sales?

 

[theprodigy]

Weren't January Xbone sales horrendous because NPD counts returned systems as negative sales? Maybe Microsoft's counting those systems as sales?

you're thinking of the Wii U, and even that's merely speculation

 

[Death2494]

Weren't January Xbone sales horrendous because NPD counts returned systems as negative sales? Maybe Microsoft's counting those systems as sales?

wat are we questioning the 3 million sold to consumer number that was reported at the end december 2013?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Weren't January Xbone sales horrendous because NPD counts returned systems as negative sales? Maybe Microsoft's counting those systems as sales?

Returns most likely did occur but I doubt they were large enough to cause a several 100k worth of sales error

In that vein of thought I'm more curious to how gray market console sales count and where they count towards the total

All those pictures of XB1's in Tier 2 countries etc., albeit I doubt the number in those countries would total to more than maybe 200k and even that is probably overestimation

 

[serversurfer]

The basis of your claim for MS lying to us is that 491k XB1's did not sell in the following markets in 2013 YTD: Brazil, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Austria, Australia [after launch], Ireland, and Mexico

Say an additional 100k in Australia [after launch], 150k in Canada, and 40k on average in the other 6 countries and there you have your so called impossible sell through data.

That's impossible to believe? Yes there's historical precedent but I don't have enough data about those countries to feel comfortable trying to extrapolate sales based on what little information we have. If you want to that's fine but I can't understand how you think it makes a compelling argument for others as proof that MS lied about their sell through information?

I'm not turning a blind eye I just don't see any compelling data to suggest otherwise. Maybe NZ sold 60k and only 20k sold in Brazil. Maybe Ireland ate up 80k at launch because they wanted it badly. I don't know but you can easily play with the numbers and get perfectly logical combinations that suggest they hit 3M

I'm seriously not sure if you're just fucking with me or what.

We just established that historically, Canada would be ~103K if US was 1800K, and you toss out 150K for Canada instead. The US doubles their launch numbers by the end of the year, but Australia increases theirs by like 165%. Ireland is good for 18K, but maybe they bought 4.4x as many because reasons. You say you're putting out these numbers because you have no reason to think they're wrong — despite the evidence saying precisely that — yet I'm the one tossing out unsupported numbers to prop up ass-sourced estimates.

Spoiler

Microsoft's ass, not yours. <3

=/

Yes because a corporation having some astroturfer post crap on some web forum is the same thing as letting every damn news outlet run with specific sell-through numbers. Ok

Sorry, but I'm not sure what you're saying here.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I'm seriously not sure if you're just fucking with me or what.

We just established that historically, Canada would be ~103K if US was 1800K, and you toss out 150K for Canada instead. The US doubles their launch numbers by the end of the year, but Australia increases theirs by like 165%. Ireland is good for 18K, but maybe they bought 4.4x as many because reasons. You say you're putting out these numbers because you have no reason to think they're wrong — despite the evidence saying precisely that — yet I'm the one tossing out unsupported numbers to prop up ass-sourced estimates.

Spoiler

Microsoft's ass, not yours. <3

=/

The problem I have arguing with you is you're trying to use vague estimations like I do for console WW LTD to prove that some company lied about sales numbers.

My estimation attempt for the XB1 WW sales could be completely and wholly inaccurate, but so will almost certainly trying to say market x is 10% of market y in these instances and thus must only represent Z number of sales

Thus MS is lying!

It's not a particularly strong argument just like any WW estimation for XB1 LTD is not going to be of particularly strong accuracy.

Sorry, but I'm not sure what you're saying here.

The lies are not nearly equivalent if they both are lies. IE MS lying intentionally about how many systems they sold WW for a new important product versus some employee going off half-cocked on an internet forum about power specs and what not

 

[LiquidSolid]

you're thinking of the Wii U, and even that's merely speculation

What? No, I'm not. The Xbone sold 141K in the January NPD but then suddenly jumped up to 258K in February with no game releases to help it. The theory that went around at the time was that January number was hit by a significant amount of post-Christmas returns, since it obviously wasn't supply constrained at the time.

And Nintendo reporting negative shipments in their quarterly report last year wasn't speculation, it was fact.

Returns most likely did occur but I doubt they were large enough to cause a several 100k worth of sales error

In that vein of thought I'm more curious to how gray market console sales count and where they count towards the total

All those pictures of XB1's in Tier 2 countries etc., albeit I doubt the number in those countries would total to more than maybe 200k and even that is probably overestimation

That's a good point too. It'd be interesting to hear how those are worked out.

 

[serversurfer]

The problem I have arguing with you is you're trying to use vague estimations like I do for console WW LTD to prove that some company lied about sales numbers.

No, no, you've got me all wrong. This basically started with me looking at your estimate of 4.5-4.8M and thinking, "1.6-1.9M sales outside the US? That seems like a lot. Wasn't it supposed to be bomba in Germany?"

That's what started me poking around at all, and then doing so reminded me that the initial 3M sounded fishy to me, and now after arguing with you about it all day and actually looking at the markets in question, I'm even more suspicious of the original claim.

I'm sorry if you feel like you were tricked in to proving MS lied or something, but I'm basically just posting stuff as it occurs to me. I'm trying to figure out where those 3M could've possibly sold. Regardless, I assure you it's not some kind of personal attack on you though; I know you're not the source of the 3M claim.

Edit: Maybe I'm using bad terminology, I'm trying to figure out where those 3M could've reasonably sold. Better?

The lies are not nearly equivalent if they both are lies. IE MS lying intentionally about how many systems they sold WW for a new important product versus some employee going off half-cocked on an internet forum about power specs and what not

Oh, I see what you mean. Didn't MS just get in a bunch of trouble for trying to make people think Surface was a lot more successful than it really was?

 

[SwiftDeath]

No, no, you've got me all wrong. This basically started with me looking at your estimate of 4.5-4.8M and thinking, "1.6-1.9M sales outside the US? That seems like a lot. Wasn't it supposed to be bomba in Germany?"

That's what started me poking around at all, and then doing so reminded me that the initial 3M sounded fishy to me, and now after arguing with you about it all day and actually looking at the markets in question, I'm even more suspicious of the original claim.

I'm sorry if you feel like you were tricked in to proving MS lied or something, but I'm basically just posting stuff as it occurs to me. I'm trying to figure out where those 3M could've possibly sold. Regardless, I assure you it's not some kind of personal attack on you though; I know you're not the source of the 3M claim.

Whew thank god. Dodged a bullet there

And yes like I said you're perfectly in your own right to disbelieve MS's 3M claim and all. I just believe it and will continue to do so and thus consider it an important data point in potentially estimating [albeit poorly] the current WW install base for XB1

Oh, I see what you mean. Didn't MS just get in a bunch of trouble for trying to make people think Surface was a lot more successful than it really was?

I think they had some of the original surfaces in warehouses but had claimed to sell them or something. I do remember a fishy report about that

 

[theprodigy]

What? No, I'm not. The Xbone sold 141K in the January NPD but then suddenly jumped up to 258K in February with no game releases to help it. The theory that went around at the time was that January number was hit by a significant amount of post-Christmas returns, since it obviously wasn't supply constrained at the time.

And Nintendo reporting negative shipments in their quarterly report last year wasn't speculation, it was fact.



That's a good point too. It'd be interesting to hear how those are worked out.

No, the theory at the time was that the shit weather caused all non-PS4 consoles to tank, and the returns thing was January 2013 NPD for the Wii U (and this is neither the same time nor region as that one negative shipment).

 

[serversurfer]

Whew thank god. Dodged a bullet there

And yes like I said you're perfectly in your own right to disbelieve MS's 3M claim and all. I just believe it and will continue to do so and thus consider it an important data point in potentially estimating [albeit poorly] the current WW install base for XB1

Fair enough. You can base your estimates on their statement, and I'll base mine on the historical performance of the markets in question, fortified with leaked data where available. At this point, I guess I'm committed to researching those last few countries anyway. lol

I think they had some of the original surfaces in warehouses but had claimed to sell them or something. I do remember a fishy report about that

Well, you can add that to your "Why should I think they'd lie about their real performance?" column.

 

[serversurfer]

Well, I managed to find some historical data for the XBone launch countries for which we got no leaks, if anyone is interested.

First to recap, per NPD via GAF 1.8M XBones had been sold in the US through 2013, and per MS 3M had been sold worldwide.

So we've got the 1.8M from NPD. We got leaked reports of 364K from UK, 126K from France, 100K from Germany, 36K from Spain, and 66K at launch from Australia.

So let's get to estimating. The US had doubled their launch numbers by the end of the year, so we'll go ahead and put Australia down for 130K. Looking at PS2 sales, we saw Canada sitting at 5-6% of the US, so we'll put them down for 103K. Ireland is about 5% of UK, which puts them at 18K. Brazil has about 1% of the Gen7 consoles in the wild, so we'll give MS the benefit of the doubt and assume they sold as many as 30K XBones.

Now it starts getting tougher to find numbers. Back in the PS2 days, Mexico was running about 2% of the US installed base. I've heard they've doubled their overall video game spending since then, and I don't know how much of that was specifically spent on consoles, or how it compares to US spending since 2007, but we'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say 3% of US, or 54K.

I couldn't find anything for NZ specifically, but I found this showing Gen7 numbers from mid-2008 for Australia and New Zealand combined and compared them to NPD for the same time. Long story short, compared to the US, they had 4.2% as many Wiis, 3.9% as many XB360s, 5.9% as many PS3s, and 4.4% as many consoles overall. Here's the problem, 4.4% of the US market is only about 80K units, and we know 66K were sold in Australia, and we've already estimated 130K for Australia, leaving roughly -50K to be sold in NZ. So, yeah. We may have overestimated Australia, especially since they sorta sound like PlayStation territory, but for now, I guess we'll give NZ the 14K we don't know for-sure were sold in Australia. So yeah, looking for any solid numbers anyone has from NZ. lol

I couldn't find any unit numbers for Italy, but I found this which showed they spend about half of what Germany spends on consoles, so it seems safe to put them down for 50K.

Last and apparently least is Austria. I had to reach back to the PS1 era to find any firm info on them, but apparently a year after it launched, Austria was already a quarter of a percent of the global market!! lol But that was a long time ago, so I'll put them down for a full percentage point, just like Brazil.

So where does that leave us? Well, we've got 1814K from NPD per GAF, so we'll assume that's a reasonably solid number. We've got our reports out of Europe and Australia totaling 692K, giving us 2506K consoles we can account for with reasonable certainty. My estimates for non-leaked countries total 299K, plus the post-launch 64K I gave Australia brings us to an estimated 363K units. That's 2869K, assuming I estimated correctly, and I think I was being fairly generous with my assumptions, particularly Australia.

That said, 100K either way may not seem like much to quibble over, but to hit 3M, you'd need to inflate my historical estimates by 36-65% to actually hit 3M — depending on how badly I've overestimated Australia — and I've already been giving countries significant bumps over their actual, referenced historical performance, like 4x sales in Austria. A 35-65% adjustment across the globe is a pretty significant shift in buying behavior with nothing in particular to explain it, so I'm inclined to believe such an adjustment isn't necessary. Particularly because of Australia, I'm inclined to call it ~2.8M in 2013, but we'll call it a "generous" 2850K for now.

So if they were at 1814K in the US in 2013, and 2850K worldwide, that would represent a concentration of almost 64% in the US. They're now up to 2.9M in the US, which would give them a worldwide number of 4.5M if they're at that same 64% concentration. If the anecdotes are true, and non-US sales have dropped off dramatically in 2014, further concentrating US sales to, say 69%, that would give them worldwide sales of 4.2M.

So I can say with reasonable confidence — based on NPD, leaked Euro data, and historical data — that XBone sales through June 2014 are probably in the 4.2-4.5M range, likely favoring the lower end, as non-US demand seems slight. That may sound harsh, but I tried to do all of my guesstimating in Microsoft's favor. Lemme know if anyone sees any glaring errors, has more data to add, etc.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

You fail on so many levels.
You should have added April's number and the 360 platform to TitanFall sales if you wanted to do that correctly. Even doing that the numbers still wouldn't have worked in your favor. Also according to you original statement, you never stated that you were speaking about 3rd party titles only. You just mentioned software sales are....solid and hundred of times
better. I was addressing that specific claim.

You tried to make that your point only after theprodigy and Dragonborn posts. Nice try though

WiiU had third party support and in 99% it resulted in massive flops. As I've said XB1 software sales are solid and hundreds of times better than WiiU's despite having a lower install base.

It might not been clear but I was talking about third party sales all along. Wasn't the whole conversation about third party support lol.

Also your sales by day comparison is just laughably bad.I was just trying to make fun out of it.

 

[kinoki]

Being a citizen of a tier 2 country where the XBO hasn't launched but where it is readily available (and has even charted with games), I have one question. Where would our units count toward the total? If our stock comes from UK, do these units count toward UK or Sweden (or other tier 2 countries)?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Lemme know if anyone sees any glaring errors, has more data to add, etc.

I don't suppose you have taken any data analysis courses over the years?

If you did you would know that the further from the starting time the data points are the less powerful the prediction. I mean reaching back 7 years for a Mexican PS2 LTD to determine the size of the market is one thing but going back to 1996, 18 years for Austria? Yeah that's probably not a very worthwhile data point not that I think Austria matters one way or the other really.

Honestly you seem hellbent on trying to show that there is around a 140k of XB1's sold 2013 YTD that you don't think fit within whatever historical evidence you have for those countries but a few percentage change on any of those countries could mean 10's of thousands of consoles.

I mean defining the size of the Candian market by its PS2 sales seems a bit of a reach. I mean if Canadian's launch was 8% of the US's you're talking about an extra 50k units sold there. Same goes with any other territory that's calculated in the same vein

Your methodology isn't wrong necessarily because neither of us know the true numbers but the extrapolation is incredibly weak. Even my own estimates would be poor form in that light but at least they revolve around data within the last 9 months

Being a citizen of a tier 2 country where the XBO hasn't launched but where it is readily available (and has even charted with games), I have one question. Where would our units count toward the total? If our stock comes from UK, do these units count toward UK or Sweden (or other tier 2 countries)?

I've been wondering about that myself actually. I would imagine those consoles are bought in bulk by Tier 2 retailers from 3rd party distributors in Tier 1 countries. If so I think it would boost the sales in Tier 1 countries?

 

[Bad_Boy]

I wonder what kind of numbers the white destiny bundle will push.

 

[spatenfloot]

That may sound harsh, but I tried to do all of my guesstimating in Microsoft's favor. Lemme know if anyone sees any glaring errors, has more data to add, etc.

If you want to guesstimate in Microsoft's favor, just go with the 3M number and assume the percentages did not drop worldwide. That would give you an upper limit of 4.83M. I don't know why you are going to such lengths to account for 150k consoles that will be statistically insignificant in just a few months.

 

[Bundy]

I wonder what kind of numbers the white destiny bundle will push.

Hm, maybe an extra 100k on launch day?

 

[spatenfloot]

Hm, maybe an extra 100k on launch day?

I think it will do much better than that. It has been charting well on Amazon ever since it was announced.

 

[spekkeh]

Microsoft had a recent history of lying about device sales
http://m.softpedia.com/microsoft-sued-for-lying-about-surface-rt-sales-375235.html
Combined with them bullishly saying the Xbox One was sold out everywhere even though it quite clearly wasn't, led to a number of GAFfers counting the numbers and coming up considerably short, back in January. Fact is though, we'll never really know (unless they get sued again which is unlikely), maybe they did, maybe it was a slight overestimation, or a purposeful lie. It doesn't really matter anymore. Xbox One is in third place and probably staying there till the end of the year at least.

 

[ShogunDarius]

Being a citizen of a tier 2 country where the XBO hasn't launched but where it is readily available (and has even charted with games), I have one question. Where would our units count toward the total? If our stock comes from UK, do these units count toward UK or Sweden (or other tier 2 countries)?

I would assume they would count to the total of wherever they were imported from

 

[kinoki]

I would assume they would count to the total of wherever they were imported from

I think there's the difference in shipped and sold, though. I would believe it would count towards shipped but not sold. Sold is from retailer. Shipped is to distributor. Right?

 

[Raist]

I couldn't find any unit numbers for Italy, but I found this which showed they spend about half of what Germany spends on consoles, so it seems safe to put them down for 50K.

Italy is a slightly smaller market than Spain, although it might be less PS-biased traditionally.
Ubisoft projected 150k XB1 sold by the end of 2014. PS4 is at 210k as of the end of June.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=849455

I think 50k is very generous

I've been wondering about that myself actually. I would imagine those consoles are bought in bulk by Tier 2 retailers from 3rd party distributors in Tier 1 countries. If so I think it would boost the sales in Tier 1 countries?

Maybe they're counted twice? Cunning plan by MS

 

[ShogunDarius]

I think there's the difference in shipped and sold, though. I would believe it would count towards shipped but not sold. Sold is from retailer. Shipped is to distributor. Right?

but the retailers would have to have bought them from say England in order to sell them abroad, so it would count as a English sale rather than say Swedish. Its not much different from an ebay seller importing and selling an item, they buy a US game it counts as a US sale despite them selling it on in a different country

 

[kinoki]

but the retailers would have to have bought them from say England in order to sell them abroad, so it would count as a English sale rather than say Swedish. Its not much different from an ebay seller importing and selling an item, they buy a US game it counts as a us sale despite them selling it on in a different country

A distributor could have extra stock and distributes to several countries (both tier 1 and 2) so they wouldn't have to pass a retailer in order to "sell" it. At least that's my understanding.

 

[spekkeh]

A distributor could have extra stock and distributes to several countries (both tier 1 and 2) so they wouldn't have to pass a retailer in order to "sell" it. At least that's my understanding.

I don't think a distributor is allowed to distribute it to the shops in those countries. What you see in tier two countries is that the big European chains like Mediamarkt redirects unsold stock from e.g. their German stores to other stores in the Benelux and Scandinavia. So I would also assume they count as German sales in this case.

 

[Death2494]

It might not been clear but I was talking about third party sales all along. Wasn't the whole conversation about third party support lol.

Also your sales by day comparison is just laughably bad.I was just trying to make fun out of it.

I know what you were trying to do you didn't do it correctly. No, you just said Xbox One did better software sales it wasn't even remotely implied that you were referring to 3rd party only.

Globally XB1 is probably only 1 million behind WiiU. WiiU has been on the market for 12 months extra. Still shows my point.

WiiU had third party support and in 99% it resulted in massive flops. As I've said XB1 software sales are solid and hundreds of times better than WiiU's despite having a lower install base.

Like I said, only after theprodigy and Dragonborn highlighted this fact, did you imply that's what you meant all along.

3rd party titles are selling the Xbox One.

Mario Kart 8 450k in 3 days. That's a 150k/d
Titanfall X1/PC 925k in 20 day. That's only ~47k/d

If you had read my comment properly, you'd see that I was never disputing that 3rd party perform better on Xbox One. The sales I cited were to show that it wasn't the same case when it came to exclusives. We don't know Titanfalls numbers are solely on the Xbox One.

Mario Kart 8 attach rate is 34% for 38 days in North America alone (3 days in May, 35 days in June) 851k with the install base of 2.5million

There is no exclusive on Xbox One that performs that well. Closes would be titanfall and it would have to have sold at least 1 million. If that had happened, you better believe we would have seen some kind of PR statement.

I like that you say my argument is laughable, but I use numbers to support my arguments. Your poor attempt at mocking those numbers tells me you're not so good with them. I'm done with arguing this with you.

Long story short, if you already own a PS4, Wii U is a better 2nd console purchase than Xbox One, IMO.

 

[Lacrus]

What? No, I'm not. The Xbone sold 141K in the January NPD but then suddenly jumped up to 258K in February with no game releases to help it. The theory that went around at the time was that January number was hit by a significant amount of post-Christmas returns, since it obviously wasn't supply constrained at the time.

And Nintendo reporting negative shipments in their quarterly report last year wasn't speculation, it was fact.



That's a good point too. It'd be interesting to hear how those are worked out.

Feb had the Titanfall beta though so.....

 

[Steroyd]

I know what you were trying to do you didn't do it correctly. No, you just said Xbox One did better software sales it wasn't even remotely implied that you were referring to 3rd party only.

Like I said, only after theprodigy and Dragonborn highlighted this fact, did you imply that's what you meant all along.




If you had read my comment properly, you'd see that I was never disputing that 3rd party perform better on Xbox One. The sales I cited were to show that it wasn't the same case when it came to exclusives. We don't know Titanfalls numbers are solely on the Xbox One.

Mario Kart 8 attach rate is 34% for 38 days in North America alone (3 days in May, 35 days in June) 851k with the install base of 2.5million

There is no exclusive on Xbox One that performs that well. Closes would be titanfall and it would have to have sold at least 1 million. If that had happened, you better believe we would have seen some kind of PR statement.

I like that you say my argument is laughable, but I use numbers to support my arguments. Your poor attempt at mocking those numbers tells me you're not so good with them. I'm done with arguing this with you.

Long story short, if you already own a PS4, Wii U is a better 2nd console purchase than Xbox One, IMO.

Forza 5 sold a million as per MS PR, with the same 30% attatch rate malarky as well, and give the Xbox One the same 20 month timeframe from when it launches and you're probably close to Halo coming out which would be an apt comparison to how big Mario Kart to Nintendo is what Halo is to Xbox.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I know what you were trying to do you didn't do it correctly. No, you just said Xbox One did better software sales it wasn't even remotely implied that you were referring to 3rd party only.

Like I said, only after theprodigy and Dragonborn highlighted this fact, did you imply that's what you meant all along.




If you had read my comment properly, you'd see that I was never disputing that 3rd party perform better on Xbox One. The sales I cited were to show that it wasn't the same case when it came to exclusives. We don't know Titanfalls numbers are solely on the Xbox One.

Mario Kart 8 attach rate is 34% for 38 days in North America alone (3 days in May, 35 days in June) 851k with the install base of 2.5million

There is no exclusive on Xbox One that performs that well. Closes would be titanfall and it would have to have sold at least 1 million. If that had happened, you better believe we would have seen some kind of PR statement.

I like that you say my argument is laughable, but I use numbers to support my arguments. Your poor attempt at mocking those numbers tells me you're not so good with them. I'm done with arguing this with you.

Long story short, if you already own a PS4, Wii U is a better 2nd console purchase than Xbox One, IMO.

lmao are you ever going to get over the misunderstanding. I meant third parties. Are you going to try and counter the point or just conveniently beat around the bush?

XB1 has sold third party software sales.
WiiU has piss poor third party software sales.

 

[Ottoni_Bastos]

I know what you were trying to do you didn't do it correctly. No, you just said Xbox One did better software sales it wasn't even remotely implied that you were referring to 3rd party only.

Like I said, only after theprodigy and Dragonborn highlighted this fact, did you imply that's what you meant all along.




If you had read my comment properly, you'd see that I was never disputing that 3rd party perform better on Xbox One. The sales I cited were to show that it wasn't the same case when it came to exclusives. We don't know Titanfalls numbers are solely on the Xbox One.

Mario Kart 8 attach rate is 34% for 38 days in North America alone (3 days in May, 35 days in June) 851k with the install base of 2.5million

There is no exclusive on Xbox One that performs that well. Closes would be titanfall and it would have to have sold at least 1 million. If that had happened, you better believe we would have seen some kind of PR statement.

I like that you say my argument is laughable, but I use numbers to support my arguments. Your poor attempt at mocking those numbers tells me you're not so good with them. I'm done with arguing this with you.

Long story short, if you already own a PS4, Wii U is a better 2nd console purchase than Xbox One, IMO.

It's not just your opnion,it's the common sense.

Ps4,xone and PC share basically the same library right now.If you have a Ps4,wiiU is the next one you should have.

 

[Death2494]

Forza 5 sold a million as per MS PR, with the same 30% attatch rate malarky as well, and give the Xbox One the same 20 month timeframe from when it launches and you're probably close to Halo coming out which would be an apt comparison to how big Mario Kart to Nintendo is what Halo is to Xbox.

Mario Kart 8 attach rate is 34% for 38 days in North America alone (3 days in May, 35 days in June) 851k with the install base of 2.5million
.

Guess you didn't read it all the way. Did you miss the part in bold?

from the link you provided....

"One-third of Xbox One owners have purchased a copy of launch title Forza Motorsport 5, Microsoft announced today on the Xbox Wire. With over 3 million Xbox Ones sold by the end of 2013, that means Turn 10's racing game has shifted more than 1 million copies to date."

I'm sure the PR statement was for worldwide and they were giving out vouchers for this game for free in EU.

.. and give the Xbox One the same 20 month timeframe from when it launches.

Why would this matter when Xbox One has a larger install base in America by 400k?

Here we go I'll do the math for you. Xbox Ones sold last quarter (Not the whole story) NPD
April 151k
May 77k
June 197k

Total: 425k

Take that way from 2.9m gives you roughly 2.475m as of March 31st after Titanfall launched March 11th. This is very close to what the Wii U's install base (2.5m) is after tracking Mario Kart for 38days(May/June NPD). Sorry numbers aren't working in your favor. Just so those isn't any misinterpretation, I was referring to North America alone.

lmao are you ever going to get over the misunderstanding. I meant third parties. Are you going to try and counter the point or just conveniently beat around the bush?

XB1 has sold third party software sales.
WiiU has piss poor third party software sales.

That wasn't a misunderstanding, you are simply trying to "save face." This is only because your original claim..

As I've said XB1 software sales are solid and hundreds of times better than WiiU's despite having a lower install base.

was factually wrong

Read my the bold in my previous post and you'll see, I stated

3rd party titles are selling the Xbox One.

You were so occupied with being objective to my original post that you missed points I've already made clear. Next time, before you start mocking, you should read everything in to post . This way you can avoid looking foolish in the future.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Guess you didn't read it all the way. Did you miss the part in bold?

from the link you provided....

"One-third of Xbox One owners have purchased a copy of launch title Forza Motorsport 5, Microsoft announced today on the Xbox Wire. With over 3 million Xbox Ones sold by the end of 2013, that means Turn 10's racing game has shifted more than 1 million copies to date."

I'm sure the PR statement was for worldwide and they were giving out vouchers for this game for free in EU.



Why would this matter when Xbox One has a larger install base in America by 400k?

Here we go I'll do the math for you. Xbox Ones sold last quarter (Not the whole story) NPD
April 151k
May 77k
June 197k

Total: 425k

Take that way from 2.9m gives you roughly 2.475m as of March 31st after Titanfall launched March 11th. This is very close to what the Wii U's install base (2.5m) is after tracking Mario Kart for 38days(May/June NPD). Sorry numbers aren't working in your favor. Just so those isn't any misinterpretation, I was referring to North America alone.

lmao are you ever going to get over the misunderstanding. I meant third parties. Are you going to try and counter the point or just conveniently beat around the bush?

XB1 has sold third party software sales.
WiiU has piss poor third party software sales.

That wasn't a misunderstanding, you are simply trying to "save face." This is only because your original claim.. was factually wrong

Read my the bold in my previous post and you'll see, I stated[/QUOTE]

Okay I was "factually wrong".

Now stop dodging this point and either refute it or agree to it:

XB1 has solid third party software sales.
WiiU has piss poor third party software sales.

This is a major reason why WiiU will be shunned by third parties.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

There is no exclusive on Xbox One that performs that well. Closes would be titanfall and it would have to have sold at least 1 million. If that had happened, you better believe we would have seen some kind of PR statement.

According to our NPD leaker, TitanFall is at 1010k stand alone unbundled for the Xbox One. That's retail USA copies only

 

[kinoki]

I don't think a distributor is allowed to distribute it to the shops in those countries. What you see in tier two countries is that the big European chains like Mediamarkt redirects unsold stock from e.g. their German stores to other stores in the Benelux and Scandinavia. So I would also assume they count as German sales in this case.

It'd be nice to know. I don't think there's any regulations a distributor has when dealing with EU countries in that regard. Regardless it'll make for an interesting September in the tier 2 countries. Those dedicated to the platform already have it and their word of mouth is already out there with the product readily available. I wonder what kind of people have waited for the Day 1 edition.

 

[Death2494]

According to our NPD leaker, TitanFall is at 1010k stand alone unbundled for the Xbox One. That's retail copies only

In North America alone? It's possible by now. But wii u has a higher attach rate with Mario kart 8. Would help if you could provide a link. We never knew the actual retail split for TitanFall. Seeing as how they released Apr statement for Forza 5, I find it strange that they wouldn't do it for titanfall especially after all the marketing.

 

[benny_a]

In North America alone?

1010k in the US alone.

Link

NPD threads. You'll figure it out. I recommend not wasting your time trying to dispute this though.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

It's not just your opnion,it's the common sense.

Ps4,xone and PC share basically the same library right now.If you have a Ps4,wiiU is the next one you should have.

That's really cool and all, but the point of the argument, is that Death moved the goalposts super hard, about which is the better companion console, when the entire crux of Psycho Mantis' point is "XB1 has good third party software sales, Wii U does not."

It's just a fact, that doesn't need all this tiresome sidestepping.

 

[Death2494]

1010k in the US alone.

Link

http://67.227.255.239/forum/showpost.php?p=104421966&postcount=1

This was all I found. If someone could provide a link. Still if Microsoft PR put out a statement about "hundreds of thousands", then why not "1 million sold in US".

That's really cool and all, but the point of the argument, is that Death moved the goalposts super hard, about which is the better companion console, when the entire crux of Psycho Mantis' point is "XB1 has good third party software sales, Wii U does not."

It's just a fact, that doesn't need all this tiresome sidestepping.

You guys are giving "blind" a whole new meaning.

3rd party titles are selling the Xbox One.

When have i ever moved the goalpost? C'mon guys all you have to do is read. What part of that statement suggest that I meant " 3rd party doesn't sell on Xbox One, and it does on the Wii U."?

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

In North America alone? It's possible by now. But wii u has a higher attach rate with Mario kart 8. Would help if you could provide a link. We never knew the actual retail split for TitanFall. Seeing as how they released Apr statement for Forza 5, I find it strange that they wouldn't do it for titanfall especially after all the marketing.

Go back through the NPD thread. I'm on 100ppp (Superior settings) and it's at page 19 or 20. Stated plainly

1010k no console bundle Xbox One US retail not digital in the NPD.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

Let me make this very simple for you:

My question is, if Xbox One continues to sell like it is, how are 3rd party studio going to justify excluding the Wii U? (Assuming the titles cross gen)

3) Software sales for XB1 have been solid unlikeWiiU where they were piss poor.

^^^Clearly referring to 3rd party sales, since this comment was responding to why 3rd parties would still consider the XB1 viable.

3. Because it's had 3rd party support. Wii U doesn't have that so of course. 1st party is a different story now isn't it?
Mario Kart 8 450k in America in only 3 days. Titanfall for Xbox One/PC (March 11 release Date) ony 925k that 3 weeks and 2 platforms

WiiU had third party support and in 99% it resulted in massive flops. As I've said XB1 software sales are solid and hundreds of times better than WiiU's despite having a lower install base.

^^Might as well, also highlight that here, Psycho_Mantis is clarifying that he is referring to third party sales. This is before Dragonborn and Prodigy ever interjected.

3rd party titles are selling the Xbox One.

Mario Kart 8 450k in 3 days. That's a 150k/d
Titanfall X1/PC 925k in 20 day. That's only ~47k/d

The issue isn't that Nintendo games don't sell. The problem is that third party titles don't sell on Nintendo hardware. At least, not the same type that sells on PS/XB

are we seriously gonna pull the "fastest selling" card?

anyway it's about 3rd party games not doing anything on Nintendo consoles, especially now that the Wii audience left

MK8 is a first party title. Point was third party titles sell abysmally.

bwahahahaahah nice spin, let me try

Titanfall X1/PC 925k in 20 day. That's ~47k/d
MK8 885k in 33 days. That's only 26.8k/d

^^^^ Confirmation that the ENTIRE point Psycho_Mantis was making was in regards to third party software.

You fail on so many levels.
You should have added April's number and the 360 platform to TitanFall sales if you wanted to do that correctly. Even doing that the numbers still wouldn't have worked in your favor. Also according to you original statement, you never stated that you were speaking about 3rd party titles only. You just mentioned software sales are....solid and hundred of times
better. I was addressing that specific claim.

You tried to make that your point only after theprodigy and Dragonborn posts. Nice try though

^^^You, missing the point, yet again. Completely.

 

[Death2494]

Go back through the NPD thread. I'm on 100ppp (Superior settings) and it's at page 19 or 20. Stated plainly

1010k no console bundle Xbox One US retail not digital in the NPD.

Checked your post history and you've made this claim before without providing a link. You're being vague with information as well. You claim that a leaker stated this but you won't give an exact thread or post number. IF it's June NPD, the thread is still open so why don't you just quote it. I have numbers straight from GAF to support my claim.

I know for a fact that Mario Kart 8 has sold 851k retail after tracking for 38 days (3 day May, 7weeks June). This results in a ~34% attach rate for North America (wii U install base is only 2.5).

Just because you say it enough times doesn't make it true. Link or PR will do just fine and i'll adjust my numbers accordingly.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Checked your post history and you've made this claim before without providing a link. You're being vague with information as well. You claim that a leaker stated this but you won't give an exact thread or post number. IF it's June NPD, the thread is still open so why don't you just quote it. I have numbers straight from GAF to support my claim.

I know for a fact that Mario Kart 8 has sold 851k retail after tracking for 38 days (3 day May, 7weeks June). This results in a ~34% attach rate for North America (wii U install base is only 2.5).

Just because you say it enough times doesn't make it true. Link or PR will do just fine and i'll adjust my numbers accordingly.

You're quoting the same thread dude. I'm on mobile. I understand you don't want to be wrong. Set your PPP to 100, go to page 19, and do a Ctrl+f for "1010"

Edit: you looked through my post history and I quoted that same exact cited post twice. Cmon.

 

[Death2494]

Let me make this very simple for you:



^^^Clearly referring to 3rd party sales, since this comment was responding to why 3rd parties would still consider the XB1 viable.


^^Might as well, also highlight that here, Psycho_Mantis is clarifying that he is referring to third party sales. This is before Dragonborn and Prodigy ever interjected.






^^^^ Confirmation that the ENTIRE point Psycho_Mantis was making was in regards to third party software.

^^^You, missing the point, yet again. Completely.

Why didn't you post my reply to Dragonborn, where I acknowledge the 3rd party doesn't sell on Wii U or the Wii?

lmao are you ever going to get over the misunderstanding. I meant third parties. Are you going to try and counter the point or just conveniently beat around the bush?

XB1 has sold third party software sales.
WiiU has piss poor third party software sales.

It wasn't clear at all which is why, Psycho_Mantis, even states that there was a misunderstanding. Nice try though. Had he laid out his argument in the way that Dragonborn did, then I would have agreed. Only after my response to Dragonborn did he try to say he meant 3rd party only, not before.

If Psycho_Mantis's point was, 3rd party titles sell better on the Xbox One than Wii U. Then yes, he is 100% correct without question
But based solely off this post, no it isn't apparent that he was solely referring to 3rd party. 3rd party isn't mentioned by him

woah woah lets get back to reality.

1) Cross gen titles are dying out. There will be none by the end of next year. Heck how many cross gen titles have been announced for 2015?

2) XB1 has sold 2.9 million in 8 months. WiiU has taken 20 months to reach 2.5 million. I think pubs can all see the difference here. One platform is going to grow far more than the other.

3) Software sales for XB1 have been solid unlikeWiiU where they were piss poor.

4) By 2016 there will be no cross gen titles (exception being EA sports). WiiU will also be ignored due to its lack of power.

3. Because it's had 3rd party support. Wii U doesn't have that so of course. 1st party is a different story now isn't it?
Mario Kart 8 450k in America in only 3 days. Titanfall for Xbox One/PC (March 11 release Date) ony 925k that 3 weeks and 2 platforms

Since he didn't clarify that he meant, I assumed he meant software as whole. So Xbox Ones sales were solid because it had 3rd party support. Wii U doesn't have it, so their software sales aren't as great. Then I clearly say, "1st party is a different story now isn't it?"

He admitted to the misunderstanding. And if everyone knew, Dragonborn wouldn't have felt the need to point it out again.

The issue isn't that Nintendo games don't sell. The problem is that third party titles don't sell on Nintendo hardware. At least, not the same type that sells on PS/XB

 

[Death2494]

You're quoting the same thread dude. I'm on mobile. I understand you don't want to be wrong. Set your PPP to 100, go to page 19, and do a Ctrl+f for "1010"

Edit: you looked through my post history and I quoted that same exact post twice. Cmon.

I have no problem with being wrong. I'm not the one claiming this, you are. I'm just asking that you back it up with a link. If others know what post you're talking about then please link it.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

Why didn't you post my reply to Dragonborn, where I acknowledge the 3rd party doesn't sell on Wii U or the Wii?



It wasn't clear at all which is why, Psycho_Mantis, even states that there was a misunderstanding. Nice try though. Had he laid out his argument in the way that Dragonborn did, then I would have agreed. Only after my response to Dragonborn did he try to say he meant 3rd party only, not before.

So... you're just going to completely ignore this?

WiiU had third party support and in 99% it resulted in massive flops. As I've said XB1 software sales are solid and hundreds of times better than WiiU's despite having a lower install base.

It was obvious to everyone except you that the discussion was on third party sales. But I guess it's too hard to admit you're wrong on the internet.

 

[Hyun Sai]

Microsoft had a recent history of lying about device sales
http://m.softpedia.com/microsoft-sued-for-lying-about-surface-rt-sales-375235.html
Combined with them bullishly saying the Xbox One was sold out everywhere even though it quite clearly wasn't, led to a number of GAFfers counting the numbers and coming up considerably short, back in January. Fact is though, we'll never really know (unless they get sued again which is unlikely), maybe they did, maybe it was a slight overestimation, or a purposeful lie. It doesn't really matter anymore. Xbox One is in third place and probably staying there till the end of the year at least.

Is there any update on the Surface RT sue ?

 

[Chobel]

Link

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=121541317&postcount=1827

 

[Xilium]

I have no problem with being wrong. I'm not the one claiming this, you are. I'm just asking that you back it up with a link. If others know what post you're talking about then please link it.

LTD for games released this year, without console bundle.

Fit - 48k
TR - 1:99k, 4:179k
DKC - 285k
LRFF13 - 1:74k, 4:139k
ToSC - 77k
PVZ - 360:295k, 1:163k
TF - 1:1010k, 360:614k
ISS - 648k
FFHD - 3:276k
SPtSoT - 360:289k, 3:236k
DS2 - 360:227k, 3:218k
WD - 4:793k, 1:500k, 360:326k, 3: 255k
&#8734; - 753k

Source

 

[Death2494]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=121541317&postcount=1827

Thanks for that. Apologies seems Titanfall is has an impressive 34.4 and Mario Kart 8 has 34.04 attach rates