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Pachter Predicts: Xbox One outsold PS4 in September (dance, you puppets)

Klocker

Member
While I would bet Pachter is wrong, and this prediction seems crazy, maybe we are underestimating the power of the Madden bundle and impulse buyers. The "casual" crowd might start to move in... (Just trying to make sense of this)


AKA the majority of console buyers.
 

mocoworm

Member
With the software line-up that MS have on XONE since launch and for the rest of 2014, I am not surprised that consumers are starting to pick up the console. Especially now that the price has dropped and Kinect is optional.
 

Riky

$MSFT
I find this hard to believe after the White Destiny bundle, maybe the X1 was closer than people imagined though.
 

madmackem

Member
I don't agree with calling value adds desperate. They happen all the time, it's not something that's exclusive to the trailing product.

If it were, you wouldn't see similarly or better value bundles for the PS4. They can be seen as a soft way of passing on savings to the consumer while still retaining the base value of the product.

I thought you didnt save on the bundles in the usa its one of the reasons he says xbox outsold the ps4 last month because the cheaper packed in games.
 

sobaka770

Banned
Can we stop listening to this bloke if Sony wins in September? For an industry insider, he's very mediocre...

Just off the top of my head (very approximately), with Destiny mega-launch, no apparent advantage of Forza sales over Driveclub (European benchmarks here) and FIFA outpacing on PS4, I'm confident that Sony has September well into their pocket. I also think that the margin will be quite significant.

A glove in your face, Pachter.
 

mocoworm

Member
I find this hard to believe after the White Destiny bundle, maybe the X1 was closer than people imagined though.

I think people will be looking at upcoming titles though. A white Destiny bundle is nice for PS4, but when they can get Destiny on XONE and they see MCC collection, Sunset Overdrive, Titanfall, Forza5, FH2 etc all in 2014 or available now, and the console is the same price... it would make sense that people could be swayed to MS console.
 
I don't agree with calling value adds desperate. They happen all the time, it's not something that's exclusive to the trailing product.

If it were, you wouldn't see similarly or better value bundles for the PS4. They can be seen as a soft way of passing on savings to the consumer while still retaining the base value of the product.

If I'm not mistaken Microsoft has always ran offers that include games with their consoles. So has every console company from what I can remember. If it isn't the companies themselves then the retailers do.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
how does he get paid, honestly

From what I understand, pretty well.

What he is paid for? He tries to understand the strategy, management, value proposition and details of how the companies he analyzes work. Then he makes some educated guesses on how they are going to succeed in the broader business landscape and writes reports on what he expects to happen to the share price of those companies in the future. Institutional investors use this insight to make decisions on where to keep their billions of dollars. And considering that he has managed to keep his job, he is apparently pretty good at it.

What does his job have to do with predictions of how Xbox One sells in relation to PS4 in the US in September? Very little. Quite honestly, his clients don't care at all. He's doing this just for shits and giggles.
 

dolemite

Member
Not unreasonable. We have a $400 XBone with Destiny vs $450 PS4 with Destiny. There is also a Madden game included with the XBone for good measure.
 
I think people will be looking at upcoming titles though. A white Destiny bundle is nice for PS4, but when they can get Destiny on XONE and they see MCC collection, Sunset Overdrive, Titanfall, Forza5, FH2 etc all in 2014 or available now, and the console is the same price... it would make sense that people could be swayed to MS console.

I think you missed a couple of games there.
 

scoobs

Member
From what I understand, pretty well.

What he is paid for? He tries to understand the strategy, management, value proposition and details of how the companies he analyzes work. Then he makes some educated guesses on how they are going to succeed in the broader business landscape and writes reports on what he expects to happen to the share price of those companies in the future. Institutional investors use this insight to make decisions on where to keep their billions of dollars. And considering that he has managed to keep his job, he is apparently pretty good at it.

What does his job have to do with predictions of how Xbox One sells in relation to PS4 in the US in September? Very little. Quite honestly, his clients don't care at all. He's doing this just for shits and giggles.
I don't know... I see him on cnbc in the morning being interviewed about these tech companies all the time. I think people actually believe he is a reliable source on these things, even though he is rarely right
 

Duxxy3

Member
While I would bet Pachter is wrong, and this prediction seems crazy, maybe we are underestimating the power of the Madden bundle and impulse buyers. The "casual" crowd might start to move in... (Just trying to make sense of this)

I remember during the free deal week they had madden bundles, alongside the free game, and any other deals as well. By midweek it was very hard, to impossible, to find those madden bundles anymore.

Did we all grossly underestimate the number of those bundles?
 

Toparaman

Banned
It's on, Pachter. Your predictions have been wrong time and again, but I don't think you're going to live down this one.

I will eat a sandwich if I'm wrong.
 

mocoworm

Member
I think you missed a couple of games there.

I know that PS4 has exclusives out, but SONY are pushing Destiny as their main game with nothing of note really dropping until 2015. It just seems like the MS exclusive software offering is far more appealing to people who are looking to pick up a console for the holidays, and their marketing is much more prominent... at least it is here in the UK.
 

dose

Member
I know that PS4 has exclusives out, but SONY are pushing Destiny as their main game with nothing of note really dropping until 2015. It just seems like the MS exclusive software offering is far more appealing to people who are looking to pick up a console for the holidays, and their marketing is much more prominent... at least it is here in the UK.
MS exclusives more appealing? I disagree, I don't think either consoles' exclusives are appealing right now.
 

keram

Member
The confusing thing is not his opinion itself, but the fact that someone pays him for his opinion. wired world ...
 

barit

Member
How this guy still have a job is beyond me

The most time he is ALWAYS wrong. And he spout that "MS Xbone will overtake this and then bla bla" since the damn thing is out
 
The prediction seems far-fetched but it would be an interesting turn of events if true. It would certainly cement my belief that most people mainly care about price, not specs.
 
As far as I could tell, the Madden bundle was available for like two weeks at most, one week in August, one week in September with maybe a couple stores that retained stock after that. I don't think one week [the 2nd week] of bundle sales is going to have a large impact on a 5 week month when it was clearly a very limited promotion. There are of course other reasons at play but the Madden bundle somehow being the thing that pushed XB1 over PS4 for any length of time seems unlikely to me
 

Jack cw

Member
Cant wait for Thursday. If that prediction comes true then Microsoft not only outsold Sony, but gained the consumer trust back within a few weeks. Ergo, not possible.
 

Prine

Banned
Long term investment is debatable and nebulous. What position am I taking that's clutching straws? Software sales are where money is. The added value is great for a consumer. It's not necessarily great for a company, especially if they end up losing money that would have been better spent on say, advertising.

It could be part of their marketing budget, an investment, they could have cut a deal with the publishers we dont know, but I don't see this impacting the company that already has deep pockets and if the result is what Patcher estimates, they get their consoles into homes and build base to generate money from
 
I do wonder what is newsworthy about his NPD predictions, or perhaps phrased more accurately: his NPD stabs in the dark.

But for the sake of argument, let's say this guy's opinion is important. That is, his predictions are so vital that they require two separate articles:

http://venturebeat.com/2014/10/13/d...predicts-big-dip-in-september-software-sales/

http://venturebeat.com/2014/10/13/xbox-one-outsold-ps4/

...then at least put in enough effort to spell his name right:

“We estimate Destiny’s NPD unit sales figures for September will be 2.75 million units,” said Pacther.

“I kind of think that free Destiny [on Xbox One] was better than [paying] for Destiny on PS4,” Pacther told GamesBeat.
 
Pachter's "prediction" is so absolutely LOL worthy.... it isn't even funny anymore.
The Xbone numbers won't even be near the PS4 sales.

So it's actually unbelievable that even here, in this thread, we can see posts like:

They were doing some crazy deal where you get a free retail game (that could even be a new release like Destiny) with the purchase of a new XBone last month, weren't they?

I don't think it's completely loony to think that the XBone deal boosted sales for it more than Destiny did for PS4.

Big LOL!
Seriously
 
I've heard his name mentioned and that the opposite usually happens to what he states!
Don't understand who'd be stupid enough to employ him?

imgur_gallery_hZSfl_Its_Time_to_Stop_Posting.jpg
 
Yup, Xbone beating PS4 3 months after its price cut certainly proves that belief.

If you read my earlier posts you'll see that I don't think simply matching the PS4's price is enough. I said that the XBox One needs to be at least $50 cheaper since it's weaker specwise and with a free game included it actually is cheaper now. So it will be interesting to see what happens.
 

big_z

Member
Ive seen a lot of people pick up xbones lately but I don't know if its going to beat ps4 simply because of destiny. Those white ps4's were mostly sold out about 3 weeks after launch and I cant imagine sony shipping a miniscule amount of them.
Then again I know 3 people that bought a xbone for destiny so who knows, maybe the game was the jumping in point for halo fans.

I'll buy an Xbone next month if this is true.

quoting for future use.
 

Ace001

Member
I think people will be looking at upcoming titles though. A white Destiny bundle is nice for PS4, but when they can get Destiny on XONE and they see MCC collection, Sunset Overdrive, Titanfall, Forza5, FH2 etc all in 2014 or available now, and the console is the same price... it would make sense that people could be swayed to MS console.

When you wrote this, did you for one moment consider taking into account current and upcoming ps4 games?
 
I've heard his name mentioned and that the opposite usually happens to what he states!
Don't understand who'd be stupid enough to employ him?

Just because I act like who I am on GAF doesn't mean I'm not a competent white collar professional deserving of my pay cheque.

Pach is clearly more than competent in many aspects of his career. It's just that he doesn't bring that to his console predictions, for some reason.
 

Tak3n

Banned
Yosp: damn Pachter was right... Ok, release the firmware

competition is king....

all the people hoping for PS4 to wipe the floor with Sony, will in the end regret it, history is littered with evidence of how bad companies can act when they are the dominant force..

One could argue that is already happening depending on how you view things...

Firmware updates?

Features added?

PSN is just well.... a joke and Xmas is looming and will likely get even worse

of course Sony would deny any link to those not being updated because of their dominance...

but that is not the question, the question should always be..

Would the PS4 still be as it is if they were in Microsoft position in terms of sales?
 

MRMagoo

Neo Member
The prediction seems far-fetched but it would be an interesting turn of events if true. It would certainly cement my belief that most people mainly care about price, not specs.

Well the fact the WiiU is not doing too well kinda blows your idea out of the water already doesnt it.
 
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