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March 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

ZhugeEX

Banned
Poor Dreamcast

No one cares about the Dreamcast.

But if you insist.

USALTDDC_zpsx5uje7xf.jpg
 
Is donny going to allow that edit? Deadline was last night.

And it's still not the right format. This is.

[PS4]
[XB1]
[3DS]
[WIU]

No! He should learn to do it properly.

1) Search for a post with numbers that sound about right and a format that seems to look correct.
2) ctrl+c, ctrl+v
3) change the numbers by +/- 10%
4) add something like: Well, here is my guess...
 

RexNovis

Banned
Interesting to see if the PS4 will reach those 360 sales in the US.

Well how many units did they sell in the IS during their first year? We can kinda get a rough idea of what to expect after 6 years by estimating % of sales depreciation and then multiplying by 6. I'd imagine it'd be pretty damn close of not more than the 360. But PS4 could be very front loaded in sales given mass production resulting in more stock available from day one. Mostly I'd say it will hinge on whether or not Project Morpheus gives the system a second wind kids like kinect did for 360.

I don't think so. This gen might be shorter then the last one.

I agree but I think it could be prolonged provided again that Project Morpheus proves incredibly successful. It would allow Sony to eek more sales out of the hardware before being forced to iterate.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Well how many units did they sell in the IS during their first year? We can kinda get a rough idea of what to expect after 6 years by estimating % of sales depreciation and then multiplying by 6. I'd imagine it'd be pretty damn close of not more than the 360. But PS4 could be very front loaded in sales given mass production resulting in more stock available from day one. Mostly I'd say it will hinge on whether or not Project Morpheus gives the system a second wind kids like kinect did for 360.

PS4360_zpsubspkzod.jpg


Year 6 was when Kinect came out.
 

Javin98

Banned
I don't think so. This gen might be shorter then the last one.
True, but if the PS4 is selling better than the 360, it might catch up.

Well how many units did they sell in the IS during their first year? We can kinda get a rough idea of what to expect after 6 years by estimating % of sales depreciation and then multiplying by 6. I'd imagine it'd be pretty damn close of not more than the 360. But PS4 could be very front loaded in sales given mass production resulting in more stock available from day one. Mostly I'd say it will hinge on whether or not Project Morpheus gives the system a second wind kids like kinect did for 360.
I have no idea what the sales were, but Zhuge posted it in the last page. Interesting to see what Morpheus could bring to sales.
 

Welfare

Member
Interesting to see if the PS4 will reach those 360 sales in the US.

Those 360 sales have thanks to 9 years of selling, Kinect, being the console to pick up besides the Wii (which went after a different market), and the PS3 not being a very good competitor.

PS4 will pass the PS3 at least, but with the Xbox One, it won't pass the 360 in sales. Unless something happens that causes the PS4 to just run away with sales soon, or even the Xbox One, neither of them are reaching +42 million sales barring an increase in the market.
 

Elandyll

Banned
I don't think so. This gen might be shorter then the last one.

A lot will edge on the (possible) price drop to $299 this year imo.
If it happens, I don't see why the PS4 couldn't outdo the 360 (in NA) when all is said and done. (WW, I think that unless things turn south for Sony, the PS4 is poised to outsell the 360).

I am also curious to see in (hopefully) 2016 how Morpheus will (if at all) impact sales tbh.

Not related to this, and just for March reference, here were the sales rankings on Amazon Internationally (where I know Amazon keeps monthly rankings anyway):

US:
#6 - PS4/ $399
#19 - XB1 ACU Bundle/ $349
#66 - WiiU / $299
#69 - PS4 Batman special Ed Bundle / $449 (pre order)

UK:
#29 - PS4/ £314.99
#90 - XB1 ACU Bundle / £310
#99 - White PS4/ £321

DE:
#3 - PS4 The Order bundle/ e499
#61 - PS4/ e390
#78 - PS4 FIFA bundle/ e409
#90 - XB1/ e321
#94 - PS4 White/ e399

FR:
#18 - PS4/ e382
#65 - PS4 Bundle The Order/ e436
#90 - PS4 Bundle GTA V/ e439
#100 - XB1/ e332
 

Javin98

Banned
Those 360 sales have thanks to 9 years of selling, Kinect, being the console to pick up besides the Wii (which went after a different market), and the PS3 not being a very good competitor.

PS4 will pass the PS3 at least, but with the Xbox One, it won't pass the 360 in sales. Unless something happens that causes the PS4 to just run away with sales soon, or even the Xbox One, neither of them are reaching +42 million sales barring an increase in the market.
But if you look at the graph Zhuge just posted, the PS4 has been outselling the 360 in the US so far. Of course it may change, but the PS4 still has a chance to hit 42 million.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
In the USA, the PlayStation 2, Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii are the best selling consoles of all time with total cumulative sell through for all 3 exceeding 130 million units.

Here is PS4 sales (first 2 years) in the USA compared to these 3 top selling consoles.

USALL_zpsrbcbnmvp.jpg


I'm expecting PS4 sales to exceed 6 million units sold through to end users in 2015.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
I don't know if PS4 will have a better LTD than 360 in US, because 360 had an abnormal and intense sales increase rather late in its life, due to Slim + Kinect making the platform much more interesting for a more casual audience. No other console had a late big spike as 360, so saying that, since PS4 is selling more than 360 at the same time will mean it'll sell better at LTD ignores other factors.

Also, it seems Sony has some problems in getting the more "casual" audience in US: several titles aimed to that dempgraphic (Skylanders/Lego/Just Dance) had better sales on Xbox One. And Wii U. So, I have doubts they can achieve a similar phenomenon late in its life span.

I don't doubt PS4 will outsell PS3 (which, IIRC sold better than 360 in the region) in Europe though. It's going to beat PS3, and probably in a good way.
 

Patapwn

Member
Back on December 19, Vince said they were aproaching 8 million unique users.

Sales are going to be close to that, and with Christmas and 3 extra months, I'd say it's over 8 million.

Is there any way to gauge how entitlements translates to copies sold? Like dividing by half or a forth or something... is there any hard sales data coupled with number of entitlements?

http://www.gameinformer.com/b/news/...s-deluxe-edition-drops-in-on-november-25.aspx

Ehh... It really too bad EA is being like this with sales data.
 

RexNovis

Banned
PS4360_zpsubspkzod.jpg


Year 6 was when Kinect came out.

Ah for some reason I thought it was year 4. Yea I don't see this gen lasting more than 7 years personally (unless again Project Morpheus hits it out of the park) so if 360 got its kinect bump at year 6 I'd say the chances of PS4 exceeding its sales in the U.S. Are slim to none. Would be awesome if it does though. Would prove that the home console user base is still a growing market.
 

gtj1092

Member
Tomorrow at 4pm the numbers are released to subscribers. 6pm - 6:30pm is when PR gives any information they want to share.



Back on December 19, Vince said they were aproaching 8 million unique users.

Sales are going to be close to that, and with Christmas and 3 extra months, I'd say it's over 8 million.

That's quite a generous interpretation of that PR. Do tell where they sold these 8 million copies. Must be all digital.
 
Titanfall sold slightly under a million on it's first NPD month.

Bloodborne would be lucky to get even 50% of that.

Edit : because I was wrong about it being over a million.
 
No.....

Titanfall sold 925,000 units at retail across Xbox One and PC during March 2014. The PC number isn't going to be that high.

Excluding bundles, right?

I remember that inc.bundles, it was slightly over a mil?

Bloodborne versus Titanfall. Which will sell the most lifetime?

Titanfall. It won't even be close.

Even comparing launch, Titanfall did tremendously well, amazing for a new IP with limited platforms. The only reason it was percieved to fall short was due to the narrative of how it 'failed to defeat the PS4/save the Xbox One', and that it didn't become the Call of Duty killer, but simply becoming another top-tier competitor instead.

Furthermore, Titanfall has had extremely generous discounts over the course of it's release.
 

Chobel

Member
An individual who has played the game.

This could be that they bought the software and played it, they logged into a friends Xbox One to play the game, they downloaded a free trial etc....
By Gamertag I would assume, so we can't really guess how much that is in copies sold because their could be average 3 unique accounts per console playing the same retail game.

Thanks!
 
Guys

I came across an amazon sales translation posted by an author. It wasn't for video games but i books and the author was asked to take it down by amazon. But this author did post what 1-5 5-10 and so on translates to in actual book sales.

Do I need a mods approval to post that?
 
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