jeremy1456
Junior Member
Oh look it's fucking starting again.
We went through posts like this with IX in regards to the PSP. I'm willing to bet you were one of the many crazies from back then.
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Media Create Sales: Week 26, 2015 (Jun 22 - Jun 28)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Oh look it's fucking starting again.
We went through posts like this with IX in regards to the PSP. I'm willing to bet you were one of the many crazies from back then.
Millions of people are also not going to go out to buy a console for DQXI. For all intents and purposes, DQ is prolific enough that it can be had in multiple forms to sate a desire to play it (and the DQVIII 3DS port makes even less sense now). People haven't thrown out their PS3s or run out to buy PS4s over FFXV en masse. The core gamers will be there (most are already there) but the vast majority (the casual gamer) are on mobile or on the 3DS, and they're obviously not enticed by a 400$ product.
The install base is anemic. Its limping along at a Squidified-WiiU rate (and that's a cultural phenomenon exception with a non-prolific property). I've been of the opinion that SE is ready to fall on its sword, and this is just another step in the same direction so it wouldn't surprise me. But just at E3... the current situation is so unfavorable in the home space that they are depending on literal promises that may as well have been written on the back of a restaurant napkin.
They've released PS4-only in the west with multiple titles.
I personally think that is the problem. people in japan don't seem to be interested in buying home consoles for 400$ just on promises alone. games have to come out!!
we have seen when games released earlier in the year alongside dqh ps4 hardware sold pretty well. when ffxv comes out alongside other releases hopefully there will be bigger boosts. even 3ds started selling in huge numbers only once games started coming out alongside a huge price drop. ps4 will be seeing a price drop this holiday. lets see if any announcements at tgs alongside persona and mgsv release if there are bigger boosts. my prediction is that there will be good boost for ps4 this holiday alongside a 100$ price cut.
I personally think that is the problem. people in japan don't seem to be interested in buying home consoles for 400$ just on promises alone. games have to come out!!
we have seen when games released earlier in the year alongside dqh ps4 hardware sold pretty well. when ffxv comes out alongside other releases hopefully there will be bigger boosts. even 3ds started selling in huge numbers only once games started coming out alongside a huge price drop. ps4 will be seeing a price drop this holiday. lets see if any announcements at tgs alongside persona and mgsv release if there are bigger boosts. my prediction is that there will be good boost for ps4 this holiday alongside a 100$ price cut.
The 3DS is half the price, is mobile, didn't start out at sub-Dreamcast levels. Software is far more numerous and production is generally a lesser hurdle than the HD consoles (the latter feeding into the former).
I don't disagree that all these titles will help with bumps along the line (like PS4 DQH) but the problem is that we see the PS4 slip after the fact. The baseline has risen to... still-dead levels, and the problem is further compounded by looking at the timeline on those promises... the promises would be great if they weren't scheduled as effectively "sometime this decade".
To be fair, SE PSV support is pretty constant: 2 games in 2011; 2 games in 2013; 3 games in 2014; 2 games in 2015; 1 game in 2016 so far.
That's quantity and not quality though. DQH2 and World of FF are bigger than anything they have released on Vita previously(maybe on par with FFX/X-2). SaGa 2015 as an exclusive is also bigger than Army Corps of Hell(their only other exclusive?).
EDIT:
Oh look it's fucking starting again.
We went through posts like this with IX in regards to the PSP. I'm willing to bet you were one of the many crazies from back then.
No but I did say they would release DQH on Vita. I was wrong, they're doing to sequel.
I also said Hyrule Warriors 3DS would be a thing at the same time and was told I was doubly wrong...
Oh look it's fucking starting again.
We went through posts like this with IX in regards to the PSP. I'm willing to bet you were one of the many crazies from back then.
speaking of crazies are you still sticking by this with regards to dq11?
It will probably be announced as a 3DS exclusive and revealed before the direct, and then showcased at it.
speaking of crazies are you still sticking by this with regards to dq11?
I went on a quest to search for Persona 5 on 3ds related posts but I failed. I'll just post these so that my journey wasn't in vain.
How many more weeks do you guys think it will take for the Wii U to start rgularly outselling the Vita on a weekly basis?
"I think DQH Vita and Hyrule Warriors (N)3DS are both pretty likely to happen. The former moreso than the latter."
They are both incredibly unlikely to happen.
Get ready for the DQXI on 3DS announcement. Square Enix gave people hope for the PS4 for this game, and I'm predicting the biggest meltdowns this forum has ever seen when it's announced for 3DS despite that being the only logical platform for the game.
theprodigy
Member
speaking of crazies are you still sticking by this with regards to dq11?
I went on a quest to search for Persona 5 on 3ds related posts but I failed. I'll just post these so that my journey wasn't in vain.
"I think DQH Vita and Hyrule Warriors (N)3DS are both pretty likely to happen. The former moreso than the latter."
lol
btw where were you searching for Persona 5 posts? maybe I'll do it
lol
btw where were you searching for Persona 5 posts? maybe I'll do it
In his post history but I was searching only in the media creates threads. I remember a lot of people that thought it was gonna be on 3DS but I can't remember who or when they said that.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Some were predicting Persona 5 for the 3DS, but others (like me) were thinking more of Persona 3DS, and that did happen, and it sold wonderfully.
Please anticipate Persona 5 Portabl3DS.
Please anticipate Persona 5 Portabl3DS.
thestopsign
Member
Who thought Dragon Quest IX would be on PSP.
Nobody expected it on DS.
I think most people were expecting it to come out on PS2 like Dragon Quest VII did late in the PSX's lifetime.
Who thought Dragon Quest IX would be on PSP.
Nobody expected it on DS.
I think when it disappeared for a while people assumed it switched platform. The exact same thing happened with MH4.
Monster Hunter 4 came out like 2 years after it was announced.I think when it disappeared for a while people assumed it switched platform. The exact same thing happened with MH4.
Who are these crazies. Are they expecting Final Fantasy XV on Wii U.
Some were predicting Persona 5 for the 3DS, but others (like me) were thinking more of Persona 3DS, and that did happen, and it sold wonderfully.
Please anticipate Persona 5 Portabl3DS.
More like Persona 5 3FPS, amirite?
I'm getting kind of tired of DQ11.
Can't it just be announced, everyone gets happy/mad and complains/rejoices so we can be done with it.
It's starting to become kind of boring with all the speculation. At least for me. How much time usually passes between announcement and release date for DQ mainline? If it's usually over a year, I really can't care yet.
Can't it just be announced, everyone gets happy/mad and complains/rejoices so we can be done with it.
It's starting to become kind of boring with all the speculation. At least for me. How much time usually passes between announcement and release date for DQ mainline? If it's usually over a year, I really can't care yet.
Monster Hunter 4 came out like 2 years after it was announced.
Who are these crazies. Are they expecting Final Fantasy XV on Wii U.
Kotaku: Rumor: Monster Hunter 4 is coming to the PS Vita
Final Fantasy XV Wii U exclusive confirmed.
thestopsign
Member
So The Phantom Pain comes out in two months, what are people's expectations for it? The franchise has been remarkably consistent in Japan afaik.
~900k LTD maybe?
No. Not without Subsistance. It would probably be around 500k if I had to guess, 900k seems pretty far-reaching. Have preorders even started for it?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
In his post history but I was searching only in the media creates threads. I remember a lot of people that thought it was gonna be on 3DS but I can't remember who or when they said that.
Persona 5 on 3DS discussions lol....oh man that was like more than 2 years ago right. I'm still waiting for that release date -____-
So The Phantom Pain comes out in two months, what are people's expectations for it? The franchise has been remarkably consistent in Japan afaik.
~900k LTD maybe?
Less than Splatoon.
Some were predicting Persona 5 for the 3DS, but others (like me) were thinking more of Persona 3DS, and that did happen, and it sold wonderfully.
Please anticipate Persona 5 Portabl3DS.
Oh God. I remember that. People were swearing up and down Atlus would make P5 for 3DS.
No. Not without Subsistance. It would probably be around 500k if I had to guess, 900k seems pretty far-reaching. Have preorders even started for it?
MGS4 managed to do ~900k without Substance/Subsistence. 500k is extremely low for a franchise that has been consistent since MGS2, even the spinoffs did better. Of course a decline is possible, but not by nearly half.
EDIT: I didn't know people were down on The Phantom Pain in the MC threads, any reason why?
The problem is that a lot of people just think about things that they want and decide they are true instead of first looking at developer statements, developer history, and market conditions (all three are important) and then coming to a conclusion.
It's one of the most toxic things in these threads.
As a side note Möbius is sitting around 50 despite the new chapter. I'd consider it to have, at minimum, notably failed to live up to its potential.
It's one of the most toxic things in these threads.
As a side note Möbius is sitting around 50 despite the new chapter. I'd consider it to have, at minimum, notably failed to live up to its potential.
As a side note Möbius is sitting around 50 despite the new chapter. I'd consider it to have, at minimum, notably failed to live up to its potential.
I'm going to keep an ear out on it from friends (I'll say if I hear anything positive), but it does seem that what I was told about it and expectations therein/therefrom did pan out for it.
Do we know of what their next venture will be for a mobile-only title?
Pennywise83
Banned
The problem is that a lot of people just think about things that they want and decide they are true instead of first looking at developer statements, developer history, and market conditions (all three are important) and then coming to a conclusion.
It's one of the most toxic things in these threads.
As a side note Möbius is sitting around 50 despite the new chapter. I'd consider it to have, at minimum, notably failed to live up to its potential.
New thread for new news?
It was pretty clear, btw. The game started collapsing after the first few days; given that it was aimed at more veteran gamers, it was always going to attract early adopters.
New thread for new news?
It was pretty clear, btw. The game started collapsing after the first few days; given that it was aimed at more veteran gamers, it was always going to attract early adopters.
I wouldn't say it was aimed at veteran gamers... if it was, it was anemic and very badly planned. Veteran gamers are heavy players and that game was ill-conceived given its launch content.
Monster Gear managed to go down, but stabilize much better as a comparison.New thread for new news?
It was pretty clear, btw. The game started collapsing after the first few days; given that it was aimed at more veteran gamers, it was always going to attract early adopters.
For Möbius I was going to wait until their fiscal report does or doesn't list it and comment on that a la Lightning Returns, but I can pull you a chart if you want to make a thread.
I'm going to keep an ear out on it from friends (I'll say if I hear anything positive), but it does seem that what I was told about it and expectations therein/therefrom did pan out for it.
Do we know of what their next venture will be for a mobile-only title?
From 1st Production Department or from Square Enix?
Square Enix's list of announced upcoming mobile Japanese games is as follows to my knowledge.
F2P:
-Final Fantasy: Brave Exvius (This is from the Brave Frontier people, so probably their biggest announced game)
-Rampage Land Rankers (Hexadrive/Nomura)
-Final Fantasy Grandmasters (White Cat competitor)
-Kingdom Hearts: Unchained Chi
-Alice Order (newest waifu game)
-Final Fantasy XI mobile version by Nexon
-Final Fantasy: Artniks Dive (GREE)
Paid:
-Final Fantasy VII
However, consider that about half their line-up goes out as stealth releases. For example, "Zhan Guo Yaraideka Luan Wu Chuan" went out with basically no marketing and actually has been doing a fair bit better than most of their releases despite no hype train. It's not a top shelf performer, but it has a much, much, much better performance than things like Legends or Agito.
It's also possible I've missed some. English resources on this topic are pretty poor.
Edit:
Oh, apparently that Dragon Quest: Monster Parade port just came out. No wonder I hadn't seen it on the charts before. You may remember it as a browser game from a few years ago.
thestopsign
Member
MGS4 managed to do ~900k without Substance/Subsistence. 500k is extremely low for a franchise that has been consistent since MGS2, even the spinoffs did better. Of course a decline is possible, but not by nearly half.
EDIT: I didn't know people were down on The Phantom Pain in the MC threads, any reason why?
Without re-releases, this is what the initial sales for Metal Gear Solid 4 were:
http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/2989
So 700k and it was aggressively bundled if I remember correctly.
test_account
XP-39C²
From what i remember, there was just one bundle to begin with. I cant remember it being heavly bundled.Without re-releases, this is what the initial sales for Metal Gear Solid 4 were:
http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/2989
So 700k and it was aggressively bundled if I remember correctly.
Monster Gear managed to go down, but stabilize much better as a comparison.
For Möbius I was going to wait until their fiscal report does or doesn't list it and comment on that a la Lightning Returns, but I can pull you a chart if you want to make a thread.
Well, once you made a thread about it being a success, and then it went down. Maybe, making a thread about it not being a success will bring it up again!
SE is ps4 basically. great for the Japanese market
What exactly is great about it for the Japanese market? Let´s be honest for a second, there are far better options to generate more revenue in Japan even within the dedicated videogame systems space. Let´s say more appropriately it´s great for Sony instead. Because more than anything this reminds me losely of Squaresofts focus on Wonderswan in the early 2000s, more than anything, with the obvious difference of bigger budgets and mainline entries of course. For the simple reason that we are talking about a system that likely won´t even close the gap with WiiU until 2016/2017, despite the latter basically just beeing supported by just 1 publisher with the occasional exception.
flaviusconstantius
Member
The 3DS is half the price, is mobile, didn't start out at sub-Dreamcast levels. Software is far more numerous and production is generally a lesser hurdle than the HD consoles (the latter feeding into the former).
I don't disagree that all these titles will help with bumps along the line (like PS4 DQH) but the problem is that we see the PS4 slip after the fact. The baseline has risen to... still-dead levels, and the problem is further compounded by looking at the timeline on those promises... the promises would be great if they weren't scheduled as effectively "sometime this decade".
The problem is the 3DS market is nowhere near as lucrative as is insisted by many here, or as would be expected by its install base. There is a top-tier of games(YK, Pokemon,MH, core FP titles) that sell really well, a tier below that of major 3rd party offerings that sell around 1 million, and then 85% of its software sells in range that might as well be on Vita. If I were attempting to make a family/kid friendly game I would put it on the 3DS, but it is far from clear that B-tier visual novel or JRPG sells any better there than on the Vita. Look how many 3DS games end in sub-100k, sub-50K, and sub 20K range. Would those clearly have done any worse on Vita. In fact, several of the multiplatform ones do better.
For instance, I have trouble seeing DQXI manage to exceed YK/Pokemon at around 2.5 million which would put it substantially below the historical performence of the franchise.
DQ is also an exception in that you are looking at the overwhelming proportion of its sales being in Japan. Something like FF or KH which relies on spectacle and has a large Western base pretty much has to be on a console, and none of the handheld spinoffs have done well enough abroad to be able to seriously contemplate a switch.
There is a time issue as well. How long with the 3DS remain viable. Would a major title be viable in late 2016? In Japan perhaps, but abroad?
If I were Square I probably would be putting more support into the 3DS than I am doing(though the lack of Unity makes it troublesome for Mobile ports), and I probably would also have tried to port my Android catalog to Vita. But making 3DS my main platform? God know. It is a one and a half trick pony.
Regarding DQXI, Square has no good options because almost any choice would result in a substantial decline. PS4 maintains the option of Vita/NX. 3DS is basically 3DS, and for a 2017 title that is a risky commitment.
The hardware numbers from MC and famitsu are quite different again. Especially for PS4. Is famitsu still a more reliable source than mc?
Famitsu was never more reliable, neither Media Create or Dengeki.
The 3 trackers are good and we don't have info to know which is the best.
thestopsign
Member
From what i remember, there was just one bundle to begin with. I cant remember it being heavly bundled.
I meant it was bundled at launch, not afterwards.
For instance, I have trouble seeing DQXI manage to exceed YK/Pokemon at around 2.5 million which would put it substantially below the historical performence of the franchise.
Where, on 3DS?
Without re-releases, this is what the initial sales for Metal Gear Solid 4 were:
http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/2989
So 700k and it was aggressively bundled if I remember correctly.
http://garaph.info/softwaregroup.php?grid=176
~900k LTD.
Pennywise83
Banned
The problem is the 3DS market is nowhere near as lucrative as is insisted by many here, or as would be expected by its install base. There is a top-tier of games(YK, Pokemon,MH, core FP titles) that sell really well, a tier below that of major 3rd party offerings that sell around 1 million, and then 85% of its software sells in range that might as well be on Vita. If I were attempting to make a family/kid friendly game I would put it on the 3DS, but it is far from clear that B-tier visual novel or JRPG sells any better there than on the Vita. Look how many 3DS games end in sub-100k, sub-50K, and sub 20K range. Would those clearly have done any worse on Vita. In fact, several of the multiplatform ones do better.
This is factually incorrect.
There are around 50 games between 200k and 1m on 3DS; there are only 10 games above 200k on PSV. There are around 40 games between 100k and 200k on 3DS; and around 20 in the same range on PSV.
PSV showed how it is basically impossible to cross the 300k mark unless you're a fairly big name (God Eater, Persona, Minecraft). Therefore, it is not fair saying that below 1m units, 3DS is basically comparable with PSV. Niche games would sell about the same on both platforms, but this is always true; if a software house would like to reach a sizeable market, PSV is really constrained by its platform and audience (while 3DS userbase is quite heterogeneous, PSV ones is more targeted).
It is also not true that those sub-100k 3DS games would have done better, or the same, on PSV; you also do not count development costs and the fact that 3DS has a better market overseas.
Even a game like Project Mirai was able to outsell a mainline PSV entry, which clearly shows how 3DS is actually a good ecosystem for third parties, while PSV is ok mainly for niche franchises.
For instance, I have trouble seeing DQXI manage to exceed YK/Pokemon at around 2.5 million which would put it substantially below the historical performence of the franchise.
This is simply wishful thinking. Dragon Quest VII sold 1.3m, basically on par with DS remakes, and Dragon Quest Monsters also sold quite well. A traditional mainline 3DS Dragon Quest game would be able to reach at least the same sales Dragon Quest VIII had, thanks to the huge installed base. 3DS showed how it can sustain multi-million sellers; in fact, last year, 5 multi-million sellers games were released in about 6 months. No other platform ever reached that.
DQ is also an exception in that you are looking at the overwhelming proportion of its sales being in Japan. Something like FF or KH which relies on spectacle and has a large Western base pretty much has to be on a console, and none of the handheld spinoffs have done well enough abroad to be able to seriously contemplate a switch.
There is a time issue as well. How long with the 3DS remain viable. Would a major title be viable in late 2016? In Japan perhaps, but abroad?
If I were Square I probably would be putting more support into the 3DS than I am doing(though the lack of Unity makes it troublesome for Mobile ports), and I probably would also have tried to port my Android catalog to Vita. But making 3DS my main platform? God know. It is a one and a half trick pony.
Regarding DQXI, Square has no good options because almost any choice would result in a substantial decline. PS4 maintains the option of Vita/NX. 3DS is basically 3DS, and for a 2017 title that is a risky commitment.
2016 is shaping up nicely for 3DS, both in Japan and abroad. Japan will have Monster Hunter X, The Snack World and Nintendo first party offers such as Mario & Luigi; in the West, Fire Emblem Fates, Yo-kai Watch, and so on.
So The Phantom Pain comes out in two months, what are people's expectations for it? The franchise has been remarkably consistent in Japan afaik.
~900k LTD maybe?
I think a 700k LTD seems pretty realistic. If nothing has changed from earlier this year until then, the split should be something like 400k PS3 300k PS4. If the audience is super receptive to the game, then a 800k LTD is possible, but I don't think it'll be much higher than that.
As a side note Möbius is sitting around 50 despite the new chapter. I'd consider it to have, at minimum, notably failed to live up to its potential.
And I remember arguing with someone who thought Mobius would convince Square to make FFXVI a mobile game lol.
Some were predicting Persona 5 for the 3DS, but others (like me) were thinking more of Persona 3DS, and that did happen, and it sold wonderfully.
Please anticipate Persona 5 Portabl3DS.
They'll just pull an FES and rerelease it on PS4.
SS
ßig
Unconfirmed Member
For instance, I have trouble seeing DQXI manage to exceed YK/Pokemon at around 2.5 million which would put it substantially below the historical performence of the franchise.
Yo-Kai Watch 2 Shinuchi and Pokemon OR/AS aren't completely new/original games, they're a re-release and and a remake. It makes no sense to think DQXI would only sell as much as these on the 3DS.
thestopsign
Member
That is with "The Best" release. I did forget that The Phantom Pain is coming to PS3 as well, that will help it a lot.
test_account
XP-39C²
I see, but i dont think that the bundle were made in a much larger number compared to other limited editions, at least not from what i've heard.I meant it was bundled at launch, not afterwards.
Even a game like Project Mirai was able to outsell a mainline PSV entry, which clearly shows how 3DS is actually a good ecosystem for third parties, while PSV is ok mainly for niche franchises.
I'm not sure how you're getting this.
Diva F:
PSV : Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA f ( SEGA ) { 2012-08-30 } - 158,009 / 217,028
PS3 : Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA F ( SEGA ) { 2013-03-07 } - 113,722 / 160,219
Diva F 2:
PSV : Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA F 2nd ( SEGA ) { 2014-03-27 } - 103,581 / 148,708
PS3 : Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA F 2nd ( SEGA ) { 2014-03-27 } - 61,438 / 96,132
Mirai:
3DS : Hatsune Miku and Future Stars: Project Mirai ( SEGA ) { 2012-03-08 } - 88,737 / 180,696
Mirai 2:
3DS : Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai Remix ( SEGA ) { 2013-11-28 } - 84,676 / 134,785
Mirai 2: For The Sequel:
3DS : Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai DX ( SEGA ) { 2015-05-28 } - 37,941 / 37,941
Even if we combine the Mirai 2 deluxe edition with the base game I'm getting:
Diva F: 377,247
Diva F 2: 244,840
Mirai 1: 180,696
Mirai 2: 172,726
theprodigy
Member
This is factually incorrect.
Even a game like Project Mirai was able to outsell a mainline PSV entry, which clearly shows how 3DS is actually a good ecosystem for third parties, while PSV is ok mainly for niche franchises.
I'm not sure how you're getting this.
Diva F:
PSV : Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA f ( SEGA ) { 2012-08-30 } - 158,009 / 217,028
PS3 : Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA F ( SEGA ) { 2013-03-07 } - 113,722 / 160,219
Diva F 2:
PSV : Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA F 2nd ( SEGA ) { 2014-03-27 } - 103,581 / 148,708
PS3 : Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA F 2nd ( SEGA ) { 2014-03-27 } - 61,438 / 96,132
Mirai:
3DS : Hatsune Miku and Future Stars: Project Mirai ( SEGA ) { 2012-03-08 } - 88,737 / 180,696
Mirai 2:
3DS : Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai Remix ( SEGA ) { 2013-11-28 } - 84,676 / 134,785
Mirai 2: For The Sequel:
3DS : Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai DX ( SEGA ) { 2015-05-28 } - 37,941 / 37,941
Even if we combine the Mirai 2 deluxe edition with the base game I'm getting:
Diva F: 377,247
Diva F 2: 244,840
Mirai 1: 180,696
Mirai 2: 172,726
irony alert
Both 3DS Miku games crawled past 200k though.
[3DS] Hatsune Miku and Future Stars: Project Mirai # <ACT> (Sega) {2012.03.08} (¥6.090) - 205.838
[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai 2 # <ACT> (Sega) {2013.11.28} (¥6.279) - 219.500
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F # <ACT> (Sega) {2012.08.30} (¥7.329) - 227.075
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F 2nd <ACT> (Sega) {2014.03.27} (¥7.350) - 152.187
[3DS] Hatsune Miku and Future Stars: Project Mirai # <ACT> (Sega) {2012.03.08} (¥6.090) - 205.838
[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai 2 # <ACT> (Sega) {2013.11.28} (¥6.279) - 219.500
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F # <ACT> (Sega) {2012.08.30} (¥7.329) - 227.075
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F 2nd <ACT> (Sega) {2014.03.27} (¥7.350) - 152.187