I really hope Nintendo is taking notes. They should create a division dedicated entirely to new IPs. Make the Garage initiative a full division basically.
-------------------------------------------------------------
| | Mario Kart 8 | Splatoon | Difference |
| | [WIU] (2014/05/29)| [WIU] (2015/05/28)| |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | SPLTN - MK8 |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 1 | 325.892| 325.892| 144.818| 144.818| -181.074|
| 2 | 73.051| 398.943| 68.913| 213.731| -185.212|
| 3 | 42.261| 441.205| 53.198| 266.929| -174.276|
| 4 | 28.112| 469.316| 43.653| 310.582| -158.734|
| 5 | 23.520| 492.837| 37.458| 348.040| -144.797|
| 6 | 19.386| 512.223| 34.135| 382.175| -130.048|
| 7 | 15.143| 527.366| 26.136| 408.312| -119.054|
| 8 | 14.992| 542.358| 22.557| 430.869| -111.489|
| 9 | 18.129| 560.487| 24.289| 455.158| -105.329|
| 10 | 18.067| 578.554| 28.256| 483.413| -95.141|
| 11 | 20.860| 599.414| 35.620| 519.034| -80.380|
| 12 | 28.221| 627.635| 41.361| 560.394| -67.241|
| 13 | 12.075| 639.710| 23.874| 584.268| -55.442|
| 14 | 11.148| 650.858| 23.403| 607.670| -43.188|
| 15 | 8.221| 659.079| 18.826| 626.497| -32.582|
| 16 | 6.839| 665.918| 17.490| 643.987| -21.931|
| 17 | 6.396| 672.313| 16.772| 660.759| -11.554|
| 18 | 5.936| 678.250| 20.736| 681.495| 3.245|
| 19 | 4.517| 682.767| | | |
| 20 | 3.996| 686.763| | | |
| 21 | 3.625| 690.387| | | |
| 22 | 2.821| 693.208| | | |
| 23 | 3.170| 696.378| | | |
| 24 | 3.210| 699.588| | | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Total -|1.126.412| -| 681.495| -444.917|
-------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------
| | Rhythm Fever | Rhythm the Best+ | Difference |
| | [WII] (2011/07/21)| [3DS] (2015/06/11)| |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | RHtB+ - RHF |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 1 | 118.173| 118.173| 157.591| 157.591| 39.418|
| 2 | 81.938| 200.112| 66.416| 224.008| 23.896|
| 3 | 62.597| 262.709| 42.718| 266.726| 4.017|
| 4 | 63.590| 326.300| 34.467| 301.193| -25.107|
| 5 | 48.190| 374.489| 24.650| 325.844| -48.645|
| 6 | 25.063| 399.552| 17.650| 343.493| -56.059|
| 7 | 22.762| 422.314| 16.110| 359.603| -62.711|
| 8 | 15.600| 437.913| 14.382| 373.985| -63.928|
| 9 | 14.647| 452.560| 18.852| 392.837| -59.723|
| 10 | 17.354| 469.914| 27.356| 420.193| -49.721|
| 11 | 11.468| 481.382| 12.083| 432.276| -49.106|
| 12 | 10.731| 492.112| 13.716| 445.991| -46.121|
| 13 | 13.202| 505.315| 9.293| 455.284| -50.031|
| 14 | 12.377| 517.691| 7.079| 462.363| -55.328|
| 15 | 9.251| 526.943| 5.866| 468.228| -58.715|
| 16 | 8.581| 535.523| 6.830| 475.059| -60.464|
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Total -| 722.910| -| 475.059| -247.851|
-------------------------------------------------------------
Nirolak what would be a decent number for ps4 next week?
Splatoon should be around two million worldwide by now.
Rhythm Heaven slowly but surely going for that sweet sweet 500k sales.^_^
Splatoon and SMM carrying the weight of Wii U like a boss too.^_^
Seeing that Poke Mystery Dungeon is doing better than Gates of Infinity, it seems 300k is still reachable but, the formula is not really attractive for fans anymore. It seems the time is ripe for Pokemon Conquest 2.^_^
I'm not as much of a numbers person as a qualitative analysis type, so I don't have lots of historical benchmarks on hand, but basically they need to show a significant upswing from their old baseline that lasts more than 2-3 weeks.
In the back half of the Summer they were 15-20K every week. If they're not getting at least a 5-10K per week benefit out of this price cut, all they've done is lower their margins, or shown that they had to take significant moves just to sustain what's honestly a pretty poor baseline even if it doesn't look that bad by 2015's very low standards.
Splatoon become the faster seller Wii U game in japan, over Mario Kart 8.
Don't forget, Pokémon may be a "kids orientated franchise" (which I take exception to and could write an essay on how wrong you are), but this is still a Mystery Dungeon game. Pokémon Mystery Dungeon games are the best selling of them and they are not for everyone.
This is on par with how the previous ones did, except the first ones.
I pulled a bunch of random weeks out of 2011 and the PSP was fluctuating between 25-75K a week for much of the year, often being quite high even when nothing too meaningful was coming out. The PS4 won't do that well, but it gives a sense of how even end of generation PSP was doing compared to how things are now.
Last time we had WW numbers it was 1.62M. We've had at the very least 300K in Japan alone since then.
Hope you don't mind me using the chart in reddit
I'm actually pleasantly surprised by the SMM numbers - are MK8 bundles still stocked in Japan or are all shops just stocked with the SMM Bundle.
Another 4000 uninformed customers. However IIRC there were 4000 customers who bought 3DS too right before whopping $100 price drop, so I shouldn't be surprised I guess.
I'll answer this question tomorrow.
MK8 bundle is not being shipped anymore, but there were still copies available at stores the last time I checked (Sep 18).
Splatoon will sell over 5,000,000 lifetime, 6,000,000 is possible.
Aren't they (the 4000 PS4) still sold with a free copy of Bloodborne? If that's the case I can understand buying PS4 now if the PS4 price drop doesn't include a free copy of Bloodborne
Splatoon is selling faster than MK8 in Japan but I don't think the same its happening on the west so I don't see that happening. In addition, WiiU's remaining life is not long.
Splatoon will sell over 5,000,000 lifetime, 6,000,000 is possible.
No problem dude.
Splatoon is selling faster than MK8 in Japan but I don't think the same its happening on the west so I don't see that happening. In addition, WiiU's remaining life is not long.
Mario Kart 8 will sell 8,000,000 lifetime.
Splatoon will not sell so much, but 5,000,000 is realistic, 6,000,000 only with lucky.
4-4.5 million seem too low for me.
Where did Aqua Plus sell 100k units of Utawareru Mono: Itsuwari no Kamen? The game barely scratched the 50k mark during its first week.
Bad results for PS4 ports of Saint Seya and The Witch and the Hundred Knights.
I feel better comparison would be PS3 as it's also an home console. It fluctuated between 20-30k for much of its life if I remember right. Really not that much higher than PS4 this summer. In 2009 it had big second half though because of Slim and FF XIII.
13./16. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.03.19} (¥2.592) - 10.770 / 343.434 (+31%)
I think that's a bit too optimistic... Fuck it, not going to bet on it, as Splatoon destroyed all predictions until now.
doesn't that look a bit to opimistic
mk would be a 50% attachrate at 16m installbase
if the installbase is growing, the attachrate should slow down (that is normal behaviour)
mk 6 - 7.5 million
spaltoon 3 - 4 million
still huge numbers
I'm not as much of a numbers person as a qualitative analysis type, so I don't have lots of historical benchmarks on hand, but basically they need to show a significant upswing from their old baseline that lasts more than 2-3 weeks.
In the back half of the Summer they were 15-20K every week. If they're not getting at least a 5-10K per week benefit out of this price cut, all they've done is lower their margins, or shown that they had to take significant moves just to sustain what's honestly a pretty poor baseline even if it doesn't look that bad by 2015's very low standards.
That was the shipment, not sell-through.
About Saint Seya and TWATHK...SS is very, very low, but it seems Namco completely launched it with no fafare at all. Still, very low. What did the original TWATHK sell at launch? Can't remember right now.
The Witch PS3 sold 52k FW / 83k LTD; last Saint Seiya game sold poorly on PS3 as well, 22k FW / 27k LTD.
As for Utawareru Mono, going by Famitsu shipment ratio, and considering the worst case scenario (PSV game selling 60% of its shipment and PS4 / PS3 game selling 80% of its shipment), we would have 37.8k shipped units on PSV, 21.6k units on PS4, and 14.4k units on PS3... Around 73k units. Were 100k units including digital? Did it really sell 30k units on PSN? That would mean a +50% digital ratio which is, in fact, quite high.
This is true. If we judge by the PS3, the PS4 is nearing its performance.
It's just that I don't consider the PS3 to have actually been a very healthy system overall. It lost over half the install base of the PS2 while the PSP got pretty near the PS2's performance, and was in a lot of ways the turning point for home consoles in Japan.
Now, it did actually manage to catch up to the Wii in the end, but mostly by the latter's implosion.
If the PS4's performance ends up living around 70-80% of what the PS3 did, while that's still a userbase you could sell software to and make a living on, it's essentially just cementing dedicated home consoles as a largely finished industry. It's especially painful for Sony given they're losing their portable product line.
That said, this is exactly what I expect to happen...
It seems like Famitsu's sell-through ratio doesn't have 2nd and 3rd batch of shipment included to the numerator.
So how does it work? When did the new shipment arrived in stores?
PS: isn't the shipment included into the denominator?
Well all I know is Aquaplus did send additional shipment in 2 batches but don't know how those arrived to stores (checked Yodobashi and it's still lacking PS3 copies, and PS4 copies are replenished in some stores). Since assuming 30K people went digital is unrealistic I think Famitsu's sell through ratio isn't counting later shipments.
And yes I meant denominator, thank you for the correction
Is it a fact that Famitsu is not counting later shipments, or just a guess? If so, it'd be weird because for new shipments you have the denominator fixed and the numerator increasing so not anymore a 0-100 scale.
It's just a guess. All I'm saying is if the shipment arrived to stores this week it doesn't get counted to last week's denominator.
Wasn't Aqua Plus president referring to 100k in 5 days? That would be in line with Famitsu data since the game was released on Wednesday and had 5 days of sales in the rankings.