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NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]

If we have someone who "supposedly" works for NDP, and is authorized to share some data with us, why would he continue to leak data at risk to himself? The data is not public. Creamsugar was sticking his neck out for years, as I think was obvious from the fact that his leaks became more and more obfuscated as time went by.

That said, some posters got embarrassing in their efforts to praise NPD_George or ask for numbers. I know it is exciting to get some figures plainly stated after so long, but self-restraint people :p

You'd think that we were seeing the return of full NPD report leaks (ala the early 2000s) on GAF.

Yeah creamsugar is the leaker gaf deserves but its not the one it needs right now. He is a legendary poster due to the invaluable info he has given sales gaf over the years. Stay safe cream.
 

StevieP

Banned
People here in general are not appreciative of any kind of leaker or hints when it comes down to brass tacks. It's good to be skeptical, but when someone has been giving and giving and giving for months or even years in some of these cases, and quite literally putting their well being on the line for us, show a little bit of respect. I know I wouldn't risk my job for a lot ya the way some of you talk. Some of you guys have no idea the severity of punishment some of these leaks can cause if caught, whether it be NPD numbers or otherwise. We have had plenty examples of posters (even recently) who have had to bow out one way or another because of the ungratefulness of a handful of bad apples. All I'm saying is that some folks here should really say thank you more often, instead of "screw you".
 

kswiston

Member
People here in general are not appreciative of any kind of leaker or hints when it comes down to brass tacks. It's good to be skeptical, but when someone has been giving and giving and giving for months or even years in some of these cases, and quite literally putting their well being on the line for us, show a little bit of respect. I know I wouldn't risk my job for a lot ya the way some of you talk. Some of you guys have no idea the severity of punishment some of these leaks can cause if caught, whether it be NPD numbers or otherwise. We have had plenty examples of posters (even recently) who have had to bow out one way or another because of the ungratefulness of a handful of bad apples. All I'm saying is that some folks here should really say thank you more often, instead of "screw you".

The problem is that GAF has 10s of thousands of posters (with new ones coming every time). Not everyone knows the stuff you are posting about. Some people come into NPD with agendas to push, and get angry at reality pushing in a different direction. Some people just get overly excited at their google cleverness and want to share without thinking of repercussions.

About 900 different members have posted in this thread. Even if only 2-3% were misbehaving, that's still a decent (and noticeable) number of people.
 

StevieP

Banned
The problem is that GAF has 10s of thousands of posters (with new ones coming every time). Not everyone knows the stuff you are posting about. Some people come into NPD with agendas to push, and get angry at reality pushing in a different direction. Some people just get overly excited at their google cleverness and want to share without thinking of repercussions.

About 900 different members have posted in this thread. Even if only 2-3% were misbehaving, that's still a decent (and noticeable) number of people.

Like I said - the bad apples, right? Everywhere has them (not just here). The difference is that here we actually get pieces of real data, even before supposedly sanctioned leakers. People like cream, aqua, harker, etc don't HAVE to put their jobs/lives on the line for us to get a few pieces of data, but they do. Hopefully the few bad apples can realize that too.
 
My prediction is Halo isn't going to chart next month because it will get leaped by some of the titles doing deep discounting on Black Friday.

Not one Halo 5 hot price ad has leaked yet. But titles like NBA 2K16, MGSV, Syndicate, Arkham, GTA5, Madden and heck even MKX all have huge discounts coming. Not saying all will chart or sell more, but that's a lot of low priced competition in terms of unit sales.

One title that I'm going to pseudo-guarantee charts next month is Disney Infinity 3.0, Starter Packs will be under $40 at Best Buy, Target and Walmart.

Tomb Raider might not sniff the top 15, or even the top 20. November is always (generally) about New Releases and deep discounts.

Hah true but the whole point was to start a discussion on the topic, doesn't seem to have worked in either thread

Few people want to know how the sausage is actually made. They just want to live in their ignorance and preconceived notions of what reality is. It's comfortable. Take them out of that comfort and they either want to go back to it as quickly as possible or lash out at those trying to take them away from it. So far, you've gotten off kinda easy lol.
 

Dibils2k

Member
Previous gen to PS360/Wii was PS2/XBX/GCN.

LastGenx2vsCurrentGen_201510.png
i would like to see this without the Wii
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Here was last year:

1.) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (360, XBO, PS4, PS3, PC)
2.) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
3.) Super Smash Bros. (NWU, 3DS)
4.) Madden NFL 15 (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)
5.) Assassin's Creed: Unity (PS4, XBO, PC)
6.) Pokemon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
7.) Far Cry 4 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3, PC)
8.) Pokemon Omega Ruby (3DS)
9.) NBA 2K15 (PS4, 360, XBO, PS3, PC)
10.) Halo: The Master Chief Collection (XBO) <- This was slightly above 660K

So if you feel a game won't sell 660K in the month, it probably won't make it, though given what's out this year it's not unreasonable for the low bar to be higher.
 
Here was last year:

1.) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (360, XBO, PS4, PS3, PC)
2.) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
3.) Super Smash Bros. (NWU, 3DS)
4.) Madden NFL 15 (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)
5.) Assassin's Creed: Unity (PS4, XBO, PC)
6.) Pokemon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
7.) Far Cry 4 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3, PC)
8.) Pokemon Omega Ruby (3DS)
9.) NBA 2K15 (PS4, 360, XBO, PS3, PC)
10.) Halo: The Master Chief Collection (XBO) <- This was slightly above 660K

So if you feel a game won't sell 660K in the month, it probably won't make it, though given what's out this year it's not unreasonable for the low bar to be higher.
wow, the 360 version of AW was the best selling game?
 
I want to say, that's not bad. Every game should not have to break records just to be considered a success at launch.

Tomb Raider 2013 sold a couple million at launch and was considered a financial failure by Square Enix. It wasn't until good word of mouth hit combined with sales, giving it a great sales tail, that it was considered a successful game. 300k would be the kind of number that doesn't justify the development and marketing cost. Fortunately for Square Enix, unlike TR 2013, Microsoft is going to end up eating the costs of low sales since they already paid up their cash up front on the game to get its limited exclusivity.
 
Hopefully not to make it seem like the industry is "healthy".

I don't think the Wii needs to be removed but do think the whole "generation" concept is a distortion. ZhugeEX did a nice graph for me once that showed in a way I think makes more sense, shame I can't get him to do an update.
 

Sterok

Member
Here was last year:

1.) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (360, XBO, PS4, PS3, PC)
2.) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
3.) Super Smash Bros. (NWU, 3DS)
4.) Madden NFL 15 (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)
5.) Assassin's Creed: Unity (PS4, XBO, PC)
6.) Pokemon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
7.) Far Cry 4 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3, PC)
8.) Pokemon Omega Ruby (3DS)
9.) NBA 2K15 (PS4, 360, XBO, PS3, PC)
10.) Halo: The Master Chief Collection (XBO) <- This was slightly above 660K

So if you feel a game won't sell 660K in the month, it probably won't make it, though given what's out this year it's not unreasonable for the low bar to be higher.

I think the low bar will be slightly lower without Pokemon clogging up a fifth of the chart. Probably no GTA, and at best one Ubisoft game. No Smash equivalent either. Fallout and Battlefront can take the place of some of those, but which other notable games are releasing this November that didn't have a counterpart last year?
 
Fortunately for Square Enix, unlike TR 2013, Microsoft is going to end up eating the costs of low sales since they already paid up their cash up front on the game to get its limited exclusivity.
Really? How much did they pay? Is this sufficient for such low sales as we expect to break even?
If you know something please share the info as I don't know any details.
 
Really? How much did they pay? Is this sufficient for such low sales as we expect to break even?
If you know something please share the info as I don't know any details.

I don't know how much MS paid up for the agreement, but I imagine it had to be enough to cover the losses of not being on PC or PS4 at launch. That's the only reason I can think of why anyone would go third party exclusive with MS.
 

Boke1879

Member
Haha, I doubt it too. We only have a day left to get a good indicator for TR sales anyways.

Yea we'll have to see about TR. But many we already know COD and Fallout 4 have been huge. No doubt Star Wars will be as well.

Add in Black Friday with various game deals and $299 consoles...It'll be a good November for the industry.
 
I don't know how much MS paid up for the agreement, but I imagine it had to be enough to cover the losses of not being on PC or PS4 at launch. That's the only reason I can think of why anyone would go third party exclusive with MS.
I am sure tbey got money up front. And that's fine. Question is if they got enough and what they were estimating as sales when the deal was made about 2 years ago.
I they thought to sell 750.000 units f.ex. because MS convinced them that Xbox will have a very huge userbase and there will be no other game as heavily featured and marketed, maybe the money payed was not enough in hindsight.
Fallout 4 was yet unknown.
 

Elandyll

Banned
I have been living in the US for a few years and still trying to grasp the magnitude of Black Friday tbh.

If Abdiel is around (god knows he probably has better things to do on a Sunday, and less than two weeks away from the big day), I was just wondering in terms of videogame sales at retail just how big that day (now two days) is compared to the rest of the month of November?


Really? How much did they pay? Is this sufficient for such low sales as we expect to break even?
If you know something please share the info as I don't know any details.
Tbh Im not even sure they paid 'that much'.
Sure, they made the title into a temp platform exclusive, but at the same time as the publisher, they really aren't pushing it hard (between the release date, the $399 bundle, and it being limited to 2 vendors in the US including themselves, not to count being unavailable in its core market, the UK)...

Still trying to figure that deal tbh. My only explanation is that they paid a fixed sum to block it as a temp exclu, and then still had to pay per unit sold (unlike imho ACU/ AC4 in which case they obviously had near unlimited digital codes), hence not pushing it hard.
 
Here was last year:

1.) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (360, XBO, PS4, PS3, PC)
2.) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
3.) Super Smash Bros. (NWU, 3DS)
4.) Madden NFL 15 (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)
5.) Assassin's Creed: Unity (PS4, XBO, PC)
6.) Pokemon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
7.) Far Cry 4 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3, PC)
8.) Pokemon Omega Ruby (3DS)
9.) NBA 2K15 (PS4, 360, XBO, PS3, PC)
10.) Halo: The Master Chief Collection (XBO) <- This was slightly above 660K

So if you feel a game won't sell 660K in the month, it probably won't make it, though given what's out this year it's not unreasonable for the low bar to be higher.

nah, the cutoff will be lower without Nintendo hogging 3 spots
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Hopefully not to make it seem like the industry is "healthy".

But it is, Nintendo is just not pulling their weight. Sony and Microsoft are both doing their bit.

And this IMO is the biggest problem when looking at past gens and Nintendo. Was the success of the Wii really them pulling their weight? Or was it bucking a trend?

We do like to talk about trends when it comes to sales...

There is no doubt the contraction talk is because of the massive difference from Wii to Wii U....for home consoles.... But I said this before...if the Wii had continued Nintendo's home console trend instead of bucking it...how bad would the contraction really look. Lets not remove the Wii but give it sales based on the trend of Nintendo home consoles for discussion's sake. Removing it isnt the right thing to do IMO. Before the Wii the last time a Nintendo home console was a sales leader was the SNES with 49 million...

For comparison the lowest selling PS home console at the end of a gen is the PS3...which was last gen sitting at close to 90 million. I dont even know hot to include the MS in this...they got in so late vs Nintendo and Sony.

Last gen as a whole is an anomaly. One example of the anomaly ...3 home consoles released that all sold over 85 million and 2 are within 10 million of the sale leader which sits at approx. 100.
 

EGM1966

Member
Agreed, but you see now and again the comment that you quoted being used as a defense against low sales.
True enough.mmi mean sales shouldn't affect your actual enjoyment but as you say ignoring them if you like the franchise is silly as they can affect future instalments.
 

maxiell

Member
It's not the console sales that make the Halo 5 numbers so wretched. This game and MCC were heavily promoted and the strength of Xbox One last fall has to be partially attributed to Halo anticipation.

953,000 including bundles is so underwhelming and I think a huge part is the campaign/general direction of the story. Making Locke a co-main character hurt the focus and comprehension of the overall universe.
 
he is assuming whoever made the deal for square did a good job.
I know, and don't want to sound impolite, but do we know he did?
Making TR a one year timed exclusive for Xbox seem to be a horrible decision, especially for the franchise as a franchise.
Only thing that could cure this is money of course. So I wonder how much they got and if it was enough.
Would MS pay, let's say, 20 mio. for 1 year exclusivity for a game like this?

On the other hand: every penny they already got is safe. AssCreed would be happy about that.
 

EGM1966

Member
And this IMO is the biggest problem when looking at past gens and Nintendo. Was the success of the Wii really them pulling their weight? Or was it bucking a trend?

There is no doubt the contraction talk is because of the massive difference from Wii to Wii U....for home consoles.... But I said this before...if the Wii had continued Nintendo's home console trend instead of bucking it...how bad would the contraction really look. Lets not remove the Wii but give it sales based on the trend of Nintendo home consoles.

Last gen as a whole is an anomaly. One example of the anomaly ...3 home consoles released that all sold over 85 million and 2 are within 10 million of the sale leader.
The Wii was definitely an anomaly in my book. For a start I firmly believe sales were driven (majority of them) by Wii Sports, Wii Fit and motion control titles rather than Mario, Zelda and the usual franchise entries. It stood alone and sales faded when it plateaued market wise. Sales of popular motion titles continued to sell too: like dance titles.

Wii U failed to capture any attention with the tablet and I don't think Wii to where felt any need to "upgrade" if the were still active so I'd argue it does represent a return to former trends after an "out loud of the blue" spike with Wii.
 
"Don't forget about bundles" is a bad caveat for the platform with the biggest install base and I'm tired of hearing it. Ignoring digital sales, it still means that the significantly higher established PS4 install base bought less copies of Uncharted than the lower install base of Wii U bought Wolly World. The same line of defense was up when Destiny was doing better on Xbox One than PS4 at launch and it makes little sense to me.
 
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