Certain sales don't count for reasons.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Certain sales don't count for reasons.
Yeah I think get too passionate and have difficulty to differentiate the now and the after.
You can enjoy a game as much as you want, discussing if it have a bright future ahead souls not impact your fun now.
And to be clear I don't think the poor NPD performance brings any type of risk to Halo as a franchise. But it's a interesting discussion try to imagine how MS will push the games from now on, and the type of expectations that they'll have.
Trigonometrize.
Member
I gave you the reasons. Looking at it from a certain perspective still gives you a look at Uncharted doing worse than Wooly World in terms of established install bases. I don't deny that more copies of Uncharted are probably in the hands of people (if you go look at that one "do bundle sales count" thread I even say they should), but that stat doesn't exist in a vacuum and you shouldn't ignore the other side of things... for reasons.
unapersson
Member
Just look at The Order: 1886 *sob*.
In the case of Destiny, it makes a lot more sense to be brought up as every Xbox One purchased during the week of the Destiny launch came with one free game (of which most chose Destiny). As a soft bundle, it's the same thing as the PS4 bundles, only unit sales actually get counted.
Trigonometrize.
Member
Ah, I see. I forget about that. That changes that scenario.
unapersson
Member
One is also a new game, while the other is a remaster, maybe a lot of the existing base had played it already and weren't in a rush to play it again. I bought both, though could swear I bought Wooly World in the Summer.
Maybe I didn't followed a conversation, but why are you comparing the numbers of a remaster with a brand new game?
Remaster are know for selling only a fraction of brand new installments of the same games.
Enter The 36 Chambers
Member
Halo was #1. How is that anyway bad
I'm expecting overperformances from Destiny, Toys-To-Life, and FIFA this year. I could be wrong.
Wonder why it always has to be one or the other. Why can't the sales have been driven by both Wii sports and big mascot games? I can't put a "majority" either way.
Didnt we see that Mario kart Wii still sold like 240k last quarter? And brawl somewhere in the 100k?
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
I tend to think that instead of viewing the console market as "shrinking" (as defined by total number of hardware units sold), I think the industry is going through massive consolidation this generation, but the active userbase isn't necessarily decreasing. And this goes for hardware as well as software.
What I mean by consolidation is that it was a lot more common last generation to own multiple consoles. As the core demographic begins to age, there's less time in general to devote to multiple devices. So we're seeing right now that many are opting just to get a PS4 as their main console, to the detriment of competitors. Whereas, in the past it may have been far more likely to own all three systems.
In one space, you have Nintendo which has basically relinquished control of the casual market to mobile, and similarly (but not nearly as much) the Xbox One has lost every single territory they once had. I think Halo 5's lack of success is in large part something that has to hugely concern Microsoft even though they'll remain relevant in a few large regions -- there's very little to differentiate the Xbox One from the PS4. There's no standout set of exclusives that gravitates people towards their platform anymore.
A big failing of theirs is resting on their laurels and key franchises, many of which have never been wildly popular and are now encountering a large decline. Microsoft should have used the console transition to innovate and develop new IPs, but they're doubling down on their core audience which is shrinking. Destiny is basically the new Halo, and they decided to let go of Bungie which was a big, big mistake since they wanted them to turn into a Halo factory rather than allowing them to innovate and expand.
I think Sony has the right approach with their first party studios -- in general, let them do what they want EVEN if it means that you sometimes fail. Sure, Sony Santa Monica had a huge project canned after a few years of work. Millions of dollars wasted. On the other token, Naughty Dog took a risk with The Last of Us and it was hugely popular. I think as a platform holder you have to be willing to take those risks in order to re-excite the core audience. Microsoft has simply failed to do that.
Multiplatform titles have taken over, and Sony has seemingly secured that market with strategic partnerships on nearly all major titles. Their first party initiatives are icing on the cake, and the consumer has followed towards the PS4 platform while Microsoft isn't really presenting a quality case for why this consumer should also buy an Xbox One. Sony managed to make a decent comeback in the US despite a horrible start with the PS3 due in large part to making a compelling case for the consumer to ALSO buy a PS3, and I feel Microsoft should adopt this strategy but there's no evidence that they currently are.
The same consolidation is happening in the software space. Slip up once and you have a title like AC:S that bombs at retail. Meanwhile, Fallout 4 ships 12 million in its first week. Absolutely ridiculous numbers. There's clearly TONS of active core users, but they are all vying for limited time across fewer titles that feature TONS of hours of playtime.
So it's really difficult to quantify a "shrinking market".
What I mean by consolidation is that it was a lot more common last generation to own multiple consoles. As the core demographic begins to age, there's less time in general to devote to multiple devices. So we're seeing right now that many are opting just to get a PS4 as their main console, to the detriment of competitors. Whereas, in the past it may have been far more likely to own all three systems.
In one space, you have Nintendo which has basically relinquished control of the casual market to mobile, and similarly (but not nearly as much) the Xbox One has lost every single territory they once had. I think Halo 5's lack of success is in large part something that has to hugely concern Microsoft even though they'll remain relevant in a few large regions -- there's very little to differentiate the Xbox One from the PS4. There's no standout set of exclusives that gravitates people towards their platform anymore.
A big failing of theirs is resting on their laurels and key franchises, many of which have never been wildly popular and are now encountering a large decline. Microsoft should have used the console transition to innovate and develop new IPs, but they're doubling down on their core audience which is shrinking. Destiny is basically the new Halo, and they decided to let go of Bungie which was a big, big mistake since they wanted them to turn into a Halo factory rather than allowing them to innovate and expand.
I think Sony has the right approach with their first party studios -- in general, let them do what they want EVEN if it means that you sometimes fail. Sure, Sony Santa Monica had a huge project canned after a few years of work. Millions of dollars wasted. On the other token, Naughty Dog took a risk with The Last of Us and it was hugely popular. I think as a platform holder you have to be willing to take those risks in order to re-excite the core audience. Microsoft has simply failed to do that.
Multiplatform titles have taken over, and Sony has seemingly secured that market with strategic partnerships on nearly all major titles. Their first party initiatives are icing on the cake, and the consumer has followed towards the PS4 platform while Microsoft isn't really presenting a quality case for why this consumer should also buy an Xbox One. Sony managed to make a decent comeback in the US despite a horrible start with the PS3 due in large part to making a compelling case for the consumer to ALSO buy a PS3, and I feel Microsoft should adopt this strategy but there's no evidence that they currently are.
The same consolidation is happening in the software space. Slip up once and you have a title like AC:S that bombs at retail. Meanwhile, Fallout 4 ships 12 million in its first week. Absolutely ridiculous numbers. There's clearly TONS of active core users, but they are all vying for limited time across fewer titles that feature TONS of hours of playtime.
So it's really difficult to quantify a "shrinking market".
Katana_Strikes
Member
Read through the thread a bit. It's been discussed many times. But a huge drop in sales is the reason in a nutshell. Being no.1 does not constitute success alone in anyway.
theprodigy
Member
well I'm expecting these to show up (not necessarily in this order):
Call of Duty: Black Ops III
Star Wars Battlefront
Fallout 4
Madden 16
NBA 2K16
FIFA 16
Destiny: The Taken King
I don't think Skylanders/Disney Infinity/etc. are gonna do particularly well, last 3 spots probably go to whatever has super cheap Black Friday discounts
What do you feel people will be buying for their younger children in this scenario? Battlefront potentially?
People who were buying their children games like Pokemon and Smash Bros will presumably be buying their children something this year.
I believe the Star Wars Disney Infinity PS4 bundle has launched at Walmart.
That game will most likely sell a fuck ton as well.
Yokai watch. believe
But probably Disney infinity over battlefront
Nintendo could clean up if they priced splatoon really low and actually had a cheaper wii u bundle
Right, the pricing and lack of competition is why I expect it to overperform (plus the Star Wars mania).
Skylanders has some reasonable pricing this Black Friday as well.
LEGO strikes me as too expensive to move a gigantic number of units during the sale season.
What are peoples predictions for Xenoblade and how did the first game sell?
Is it going to be lucky to get up to 50K or are we thinking 100K+? Will it perform about the same as #FE next year (even though that has all the waifu stuff going for it)?
I'd add something more substantial to start the discussion but I don't really have any frame of reference to start from. The localisation is using some fairly big names so I think Nintendo will have relatively high expectations for the game, for what it is.
Is it going to be lucky to get up to 50K or are we thinking 100K+? Will it perform about the same as #FE next year (even though that has all the waifu stuff going for it)?
I'd add something more substantial to start the discussion but I don't really have any frame of reference to start from. The localisation is using some fairly big names so I think Nintendo will have relatively high expectations for the game, for what it is.
250k in December NPD.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
175k-350k It'll be interesting to see how it does.
That's pretty high. How did the original do? I know it had a very limited run in the US.
It has A INTERE month of sales ( 5 weeks), and not a normal month, but December, and has a bundle with Wii U.
We have not official numbers for XenoBlade in Wii, but 250,000 doesn't look that high.
It's a niche title on the third-placed console. It's no Yoshi or Mario. 150k tops, but likely around 100k.
Sad, I know, but realistic based on the genre and the platform. And of course the timing, which is just too late in the season.
Trigonometrize.
Member
A lot of the first page is people being shocked at Yoshi beating Uncharted and then people proceeded to defend Uncharted in saying it sold through bundles. This is a general line of defense that people will surely use for new games as well.
slavesnyder
Member
So more or less than Tomb Raider November NPD?
slavesnyder
Member
Teasing. People are so serious here.300k for Tomb Raider, so less, but i wonder why you ask this.
Xenoblade was never on my radar and it seemed not very US-appealing. Plus on the small WiiU installbase making 250k - that would be astonishing.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Not sure why because PS4 and Xbox One are extremely close in the U.S. A few hundred thousand bundles that are not counted for sales is significant. Plus as the person above mention Xbox had copies given away in unofficial bounties counted for sales while Sony didn't.
I know many people hate Amazon, but you should see this.
And with ONLY 2 days of pre orders.
They annunced the limited on 29 August, and is at #34 in the August month.
Also, the game is already in TOP 100 in the hourly, which is something...
Imo, 250k seem reasonable since it has 5 weeks of sales in December and a bundle.
And the "small user base" argoment is death after the >50% attach rate of Mario Kart.
slavesnyder
Member
Does this make sense?
Maybe the existing fanbase bought the bundle. Uncharted had not been on PS4 before, so it's a good opportunity to start this gen with it.
MCC was the same.
Nevertheless no numbers to open champaign bottles. November sucked the air out of October. So we will have to wait a little for the whole picture.
Xenoblade X is a giant open-world RPG, which in theory should be very appealing to the west. The problem is that it's unknown whether or not the audience for that kind of game is on the Wii U. Still, Nintendo has noted they've seen a lot of excitement in the west for it, so it's not impossible for it to pull better than expected numbers. And it's a Nintendo December game, which traditionally perform relatively well. I'd go with 200K personally.
Well, I personally don't know why people are shocked. The past remasters performance were all in line with the UC collection.
And I don't agree that we should discount the bundled copies. If someone was thinking about buying the console and the game he/she got a better deal with the bundle. Sure the Uncharted bundle was the cheaper option that was available right now, but even with that I wouldn't 100% exclude this sales.
One more important point is that Nintendo exclusive games tend to sell at least decently. (you can even say that as Wii u has less game options people just buy the same games in greater quantity) =)
StrongBlackVine
Banned
We don't know this for sure. Maybe some of the costs, but not all. If either party predicted a flop of this nature the deal probably does get done.
slavesnyder
Member
Thanks. Good info. August was slow month but this is remarkable nevertheless.
Userbase IS small, mariokart IS Nintendo.
And about the Amazon hate... I don't get it either. We were discussing for weeks referring to Amazon numbers and now it suddenly is not good enough? Plain stupid. No one says that Amazon charts are always accurate and only dummies try to read numbers out of it. But it's a good indicator. Not more, not less.
Also: those who say "it's only 8% of the market" should read a bit about statistics. And notice how small the sample used in polls normally is.
But you are the wrong one to yell at. You know your stuff excellently.
MastaKilla
Member
Excuse me for not reading through 111 pages =\, but is it normal for consoles to be selling in the 270-300k as late as October? Especially in what i would expect to be one of the prime years in the console cycle? My gut reaction is that these numbers seem awfully low.
theprodigy
Member
Amazon is relatively reliable for hardware, however for software not so much
that being said, Xenoblade Chronicles X shooting that high up the monthly chart in August has to count for something
(it would be REALLY NICE if we had US sales for the original *cough*)
that being said, Xenoblade Chronicles X shooting that high up the monthly chart in August has to count for something
(it would be REALLY NICE if we had US sales for the original *cough*)
CosmicQueso
Member
Your gut is truth.
So, about numbers, what do you think?
Not saying if you agree / disagree with my 250k prediction, but when i talk about sales, i always wanna know the numbers. xP
Square2015
Member
slavesnyder
Member
I. Have. No. Idea.So, about numbers, what do you think?
Not saying if you agree / disagree with my 250k prediction, but when i talk about sales, i always wanna know the numbers. xP
Bundles excluded below 200k.
Included below 250k.
Whats wrong with popping on the internet now and again, Yeh a got a passing interest in how the sales are comparing but come on checking on Amazon everyday etc zzzzzzzzzzzz
I say 250k retail and bundle + digital, withouth bundle and digital probabily under 200k, so yeah, seem reasonable.
theprodigy
Member
I wonder if Nintendo's December NPD PR will include "Xenoblade Chronicles X outsold Xenoblade Chronicles in its debut month by x%"
slavesnyder
Member
Amazon is a Sales Gaffer's ESPN.
We would all be happy if Walmart, Gamestop and Hank's PlayBoutique offered the same tracking service, but they don't. So we take what we can get and live astonishingly well with it.
Nintendo December PR:
"XenoBlade Chronicles X breaks all records and hits $400,000,000 revenue in it's first week"
lol
Current state of US Amazon sales in november:
Software:
#1 Fallout 4 [PS4]
#2 Fallout 4 [Xbone]
#3 Blops3 [Xbone]
#4 Blops3 [PS4]
#8 Twilight Princess [WiiU]
#10 Battlefront Deluxe [PS4]
#13 Halo 5
#14 Battlefront Deluxe [Xbone]
#16 Battlefront standard [PS4]
#17 MGSV [PS4]
#19 Battlefront standard [Xbone]
#26 Rise of the Tomb Raider [Xbone]
#274 Rise of the Tomb Raider [X360]
Hardware:
#15 PS4 1TB Blops3 LE $430
#18 PS4 Uncharted $350
#24 PS4 Battlefront LE $400 [#26 in Oct, #16 in Sept]
#25 PS4 Battlefront $350
#31 Xbone 1TB Fallout4 $400
#40 Xbone Gears $329
#59 Xbone 1TB Madden $386
#65 Xbone 1TB holiday bundle $395
Software:
#1 Fallout 4 [PS4]
#2 Fallout 4 [Xbone]
#3 Blops3 [Xbone]
#4 Blops3 [PS4]
#8 Twilight Princess [WiiU]
#10 Battlefront Deluxe [PS4]
#13 Halo 5
#14 Battlefront Deluxe [Xbone]
#16 Battlefront standard [PS4]
#17 MGSV [PS4]
#19 Battlefront standard [Xbone]
#26 Rise of the Tomb Raider [Xbone]
#274 Rise of the Tomb Raider [X360]
Hardware:
#15 PS4 1TB Blops3 LE $430
#18 PS4 Uncharted $350
#24 PS4 Battlefront LE $400 [#26 in Oct, #16 in Sept]
#25 PS4 Battlefront $350
#31 Xbone 1TB Fallout4 $400
#40 Xbone Gears $329
#59 Xbone 1TB Madden $386
#65 Xbone 1TB holiday bundle $395
ninjablade
Banned
Pretty simple answer, those mascot games have always been on Nintendo consoles, n64, GC and wiiu and if you combine all three it's still 45% lower sales then wii.
Hopefully they update everything in like a week. Can't wait to see how much everything changes.