If there's one thing we can bet the house on it would be that a new PS4 SKU will launch between 'Q4 16 and Q1 '17 that has 4K blu-ray support. Why? Promises to Netflix that 4K support is coming, increasing demand for 4K blu-ray compatibility, hints of new console hardware from AMD, prototypes being circulated to devs.
The potential of a new SKU that also has moderate or above increases in performance is less certain. Are these rumors so confusing because Sony is considering multiple new SKUs? Let's consider these 5 scenarios and rank them for plausibility:
Scenarios involving a new PS4 SKU taking the place of the old
(1a) PS4 with 4K blu-ray, no power enhancement (or just a cpu core unlock)
(1b) PS4 with 4K blu-ray, moderate gpu power enhancement
Scenarios involving a new PS4 SKU being sold alongside the PS4
(2a) PS4 remains the same, new PS4K released with 4k blu-ray and no power enhancement (or just cpu core unlock)
(2b) PS4 remains the same, new PS4K released with 4k blu-ray and moderate gpu power enhancement
(2c) PS4 gets replaced with a new SKU with 4K blu-ray and no power enhancement, as well as another new SKU with 4K blu-ray and moderate or major gpu power enhancements
Which are the most likely scenarios given what we know?
I would rule out (2c) since I can't see how Sony would market the two without an easy 4K branding differentiator. At the same time, can you really see Sony continuing to sell a console that doesn't have 4K blu-ray support? Sony wants all new console adopters to eventually be tempted into new 4K tvs and purchasing 4K "remastered" replacements for all their blu-rays/dvds. Therefore, I don't think they'll leave a non 4k system out on the market for long, which rules out all the of the "along side" scenarios. What seems most likely to me is that scenario 1b is the plan, with a short period of overlap with old SKU to get rid of inventory. Scenario 1a would be similar to the transition from non-mini to minis but I'd say Sony goes the moderate performance route here to ensure against whatever hardware MS and Nintendo have cooking.