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Pokémon Go: unprecedented retention, 2x the average ARPDAU, higher than Candy Crush

M

maxcriden

Member
Sorry. Last Pokémon Go article because I'm sick of posting them. But, this is news, and newsworthy.

image01-2.png
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We estimate that yesterday just under 26 million Americans played Pokémon GO on Android and iOS. This is unprecedented for a mobile game, and makes it a top 10 app by daily active users. More people use the maps in Pokémon GO (which is powered by Google Maps) than use Google Maps itself.
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image03-2.png
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Pokémon GO’s early retention results couldn’t look much better. Roughly 7 out of 10 people who download the game return to it the next day. For context, the average rate of next-day return (usually termed “D1 retention”) for games is closer to 3 out of 10 returners.
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image02-2.png
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When talking about Pokémon GO it’s hard not to resort to hyperbole. The game’s ability to make money is no exception. We estimate Pokémon GO’s average revenue per daily active user (ARPDAU) at around $0.25. This is twice the average for casual games, and higher than even the famously profitable Candy Crush Saga. That is incredible.
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Much more at the link: https://www.surveymonkey.com/business/intelligence/early-pokemon-go-retention/
 
H

HStallion

Now what's the next step in your master plan?
I can't wait for all the Pokemon Go rip off games we are going to start getting from every damn publisher.
 
K

killroy87

Member
I'll still be curious to see how this does in the months ahead, but I'm really glad to see a certifiable win for Nintendo.
 
B

border

Member
It is a phenomenon to be certain.

I think people will burn out, since it seems like the PVP/gym part of the game will be mostly inaccessible to people that aren't willing to pump huge amounts of time and money into the game. What's the point of collecting Pokemon if you aren't fighting them?
 
C

CryptiK

Member
The actual staying power is whats going to be interesting. 4 Days and I already have all the Pokemon(besides the obvious ofc).

They need Shiny Pokemon, Trainer Battles and Trading for it to even have a life beyond a couple of weeks. Only one of those is confirmed.
 
D

DorkyMohr

Banned
Neoleo2143 said:
Will it hold for months though? I doubt it, unless updates and polishing come quickly.
Click to expand...

I don't get why this is being constantly brought up in Pokemon Go / Nintendo threads. Mobile games are hit driven business. They don't have to retain their users months on end. It's already a success given the traction it's had to date.
 
R

Rootbeer

Banned
I never realized how popular snapchat is. I never use it. Tried to a few times, the interface is weird to me.

Pokemon Go however...
 
M

mangochutney

Member
Few things from those graphs, and I can't see answered in the article:
How does the retention compare to the other mega-games, such as Candy Crush or a Clash title?

Interesting they compare revenue to Candy Crush but not retention - possibly lower?

And the second question is that Candy Crush's revenue now, or back during it's peak? I'd imagine that's fallen off a lot.
 
A

Aztechnology

Member
Come on... it's been out for like a week? All of these articles. It's a cultural phenomenon. It's going to take a lot lot more than it has now to maintain a healthy position. It's actually getting ridiculous how much people are writing about this. (Not Gaffers, but business journals, finance etc.)
 
F

Ferr986

Member
CryptiK said:
The actual staying power is whats going to be interesting. 4 Days and I already have all the Pokemon(besides the obvious ofc).

They need Shiny Pokemon, Trainer Battles and Trading for it to even have a life beyond a couple of weeks. Only one of those is confirmed.
Click to expand...

All? It's been a week and I barely have something more than Pidgeys, Rats and Bats. I think I have 20ish Mons in my Pokedex.

Guess my town completely sucks for PoGo.

Otakumegane said:
China.

China.

Guys it's not out.
Click to expand...

And will never be.
 
K

kaioshade

Member
People are going to get pissed and leave if you cant actually play the damned thing, or the glitches keep getting more severe. The footstep glitch is almost as infuriating as the ct half of the users cant even log in today.
 
S

SalvaPot

Member
And Japan still has no access.

This is Red/Blue all over again, only now its getting all the age groups. And the kids that played on 4th grade are now adults with jobs and income, buying away at the microtransactions. Even I am tempted to drop a few bucks for an incubator.
 
NOLA_Gaffer

NOLA_Gaffer

Banned
kaioshade said:
People are going to get pissed and leave if you cant actually play the damned thing, or the glitches keep getting more severe. The footstep glitch is almost as infuriating as the ct half of the users cant even log in today.
Click to expand...

Bingo. I'd love to play the damn thing but I can't log in half of the time so I tossed it from my iPhone for now. I'll try it again in a few months once things have stabilized. (And hopefully it's a bit cooler outside.)
 
A

Aztechnology

Member
Dion Blaster said:
It seems like some people here are rooting against its success for some reason
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No we're rooting against the obscene over hyping of its ability to maintain a strong position. The game is a cool experience but it's shallow as hell. Personally I'm getting sick of reading how it's the second coming.
 
S

Somnid

Member
So the reason we have KPIs is to help predict sustainability. If the KPIs are through the roof it casts extreme doubts that it's going to let up anytime soon. You don't have to wonder if it'll fall off soon or not, that's exactly what this data is trying to demonstrate.

Aztechnology said:
No we're rooting against the obscene over hyping of its ability to maintain a strong position. The game is a cool experience but it's shallow as hell. Personally I'm getting sick of reading how it's the second coming.
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It is literally the second coming*

*Of Pokemon
 
NOLA_Gaffer

NOLA_Gaffer

Banned
Dion Blaster said:
It seems like some people here are rooting against its success for some reason
Click to expand...

I hope the game has a long successful lifespan, but mobile "gamers" are fickle and may tire of the game sooner rather than later especially if the server issues persist and the developer isn't quick to add features. (It's pretty bare-bones at the moment.)
 
J

jax

Banned
Dion Blaster said:
It seems like some people here are rooting against its success for some reason
Click to expand...
Last night at the mall there were two dudes walking behind me when we were catching a Magmar. They seemed like gamers, so I said "there's a Magmar over here" they looked confused. So I asked "do you have Pokémon Go?" They said no, in an very condescending manner. (Like "play a REAL game") They walked the opposite direction.

Just a few minutes I walked by and they were both catching pidgeys.

But didn't catch the Magmar.

TLDR people are haters
 
Zomba13

Zomba13

Member
Dion Blaster said:
It seems like some people here are rooting against its success for some reason
Click to expand...

It's popular. That is reason enough.

Though some are rightfully sceptical. We could look back at Ingress and try and predict how things will go but even then it's unsure because that was a new IP whereas this is Pokémon and has that nostalgia factor that pulls in lapsed fans while also appealing to people of all ages. But it could just be a fad that'll last two weeks or a month with slight resurgences when it's officially available in a country and then every time a new generation or feature is added. Or it could be the second coming of Pokémania and last for years where you fairly consistently see people doing gym and pokéstop stuff.

Right now it's hard to tell but it does seem to be on an upward trajectory despite not being officially available in most of the world yet.
 
C

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Dion Blaster said:
It seems like some people here are rooting against its success for some reason
Click to expand...

Nintendo success + casuals enjoying a game is something not many people are fond of here...remember the Wii/DS era and so called "hardcore" gamer acting like manchilds because of it.
 
NOLA_Gaffer

NOLA_Gaffer

Banned
cw_sasuke said:
Nintendo success + casuals enjoying a game is something not many people are fond of here...remember the Wii/DS era and so called "hardcore" gamer acting like manchilds because of it.
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But that was the most entertaining time in videogames ever. So much salt.
 
J

Jebusman

Banned
Dion Blaster said:
It seems like some people here are rooting against its success for some reason
Click to expand...

I mean let's be reasonable for a second.

The juggernauts of mobile games had to prove multiple things:

1. Downloads
2. Retention
3. Longetivity

While Pokemon Go has definitely seen both 1 and 2 happen in spectacular faction, we really have no idea how long this will last. If all of a sudden the fad dies and the numbers just absolutely bottom out, rather than go down a slow decline, it's not going to look pretty.

Making $6 million+ a day is impressive, but the question is can they sustain that? So every article that comes out singing the praises of how this app is a cultural revolution, some people are going to be hesitant to believe that after only a week.

And yes there is a mix of "I hate that Nintendo is successful on Mobile" because it ruins the narritive that "Nintendo doesn't need to go to mobile to survive" for a lot of people, or resistance to the idea of Nintendo on mobile at all.
 
A

Aztechnology

Member
Somnid said:
So the reason we have KPIs is to help predict sustainability. If the KPIs are through the roof it casts extreme doubts that it's going to let up anytime soon. You don't have to wonder if it'll fall off soon or not, that's exactly what this data is trying to demonstrate.



It is literally the second coming*

*Of Pokemon
Click to expand...

Ok this is deserved

159.gif
 
D

Daft Punk

Banned
I know this is pretty big, but I think people are hyping this up beyond what it is. Giving us these stats months later? Fine. A week later? Really?
 
PepperedHam

PepperedHam

Member
Whether it lasts another two weeks or two years I'm going to soak this up and enjoy every moment it lasts. I've met so many new friends, seen my public square so alive so late at night (compared to being empty with a bum on a bench), and have reconnected with a lot of old high school buddies to go out and catch stuff. There's no real reason to be on the side that roots for this to fail. There are no negatives to any of the experiences I have had. The app is unstable as hell but with the sheer amount of people poking and prodding at it it's to be expected, it's annoying as fuck yeah, but not a reason for me to hope it goes the way of the shitter. This goes beyond the game for me and I'm sure many others as well.

People hype it up so much because of the sheer amount of fun they're having. This isn't pre-release hype. The hype people are seeing is created by the actual product itself. Yeah it's barebones and shallow from a systems perspective but like I said - it goes beyond the game for many. This has been a super fun week and I'm happy for anyone involved in the project and outside of it.
 
J

Jeffrey

Member
will they change up the pokemon available in areas over time?

I've basically caught everything around my house and work commute, not too interested in the gym stuff (raising pokemon seems like a huge grind).
 
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