SinCityAssassin
Member
He has a point though. Just because you have a fallback doesn't mean you can keep throwing things at the wall to see if it sticks and failing the venture.
That was how they got to near bankruptcy the first time.
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Pokémon Go: unprecedented retention, 2x the average ARPDAU, higher than Candy Crush
- Thread starter maxcriden
- Start date
He has a point though. Just because you have a fallback doesn't mean you can keep throwing things at the wall to see if it sticks and failing the venture.
That was how they got to near bankruptcy the first time.
I think the best arguement for the long term health of this game is how quickly businesses are jumping on board to cash in. If a whole lot of highly successful businesses are going to have a symboitic relationship with this game it will have legs for a very long time.
In Sydney Australia on Monday a local landmark is dropping lures for 2 hours just to increase traction (as many smaller businesses have done) this steady stream of income from the business community is unprecedented for a mobile game as far as I'm aware
In Sydney Australia on Monday a local landmark is dropping lures for 2 hours just to increase traction (as many smaller businesses have done) this steady stream of income from the business community is unprecedented for a mobile game as far as I'm aware
People like him are always cynical about Nintendo though! This company strives on doing different things and bringing about new ways to play games. Sony and Microsoft may get away with releasing gradual living room closed box PC's, but we need at least one company that tries to do something different.
Everything I've seen from VR so far shows that companies like Sony are good at making great hardware, but really can't make compelling software to drive people to want it obsessively. Just look at 2 failed systems from both companies in the WiiU and the Vita. Looking at both, Nintendo has far more compelling software that showcases the hardware than Sony's has done with either the Vita or accessories like the Move and Eyetoy.
I kinda agree, but having successes like this only leads to a higher chance of Nintendo's next ventures doing well. If the NX can somehow capitalise on even half the active users of Pokemon Go then they've already sold over 10 million units.
Never change please
Basileus777
Member
To people discrediting it and saying it is only X amount of time, these trends are indicative of things to come and there's absolutely no reason to expect this game to crash all of a sudden.
DeuceGamer
Member
Yea, it will defintely make money. I'm wondering if it's not already profitable though since a lot of the stuff apparently came from Ingress. Not exactly sure what all they had to create but it shouldn't have cost too much to create, right?
Basileus777
Member
The game is making multiple millions per day, there is no doubt that they will make back a lot more than whatever they invested into it.
DeuceGamer
Member
Yea, I'm not questioning that. My interest is in what the development actually cost them and if they have already made that back. It's been out a week and was projected to make 1.6 million a day on iOS. That's over 10 million already on just iOS. I'm guessing they have either already made back their money on development costs or will very, very soon.
They really need to add casual battles. Eventually, people aren't going to want to JUST fight against the really high cp Pokemon at gyms. My strongest is 777, but most gyms around me have Pokemon in the 1000 range. It's not fun fighting those. And they are going to want to battle against their friends. Even if it's still the same basic battle system, they have to add it
7DollarHagane
Banned
It could lose half its users in a month and still would probably make 200 million.
And many of those will come back for updates. But there's no way they're losing that many users.
The social ties to this game are real. Real in person social interactions. No "post to your friends on Facebook" there are groups of people making this a part of their evening routines or multiple times a week.
There will be many stories of real life friendships and relationships that started from this game. The atmosphere is like a summer camp right now.
lol that's what I was thinking. Maybe a fake GPS app or something? Even that seems unlikely.
Calamari41
41 > 38
My anecdotal experience is that this is escalating by the day, rather than waning. At the beginning of the week, my local map was decently populated with lures and gyms and so on. Tonight, looking at the same map is like looking at Disneyland during the fireworks.
They do though. They've already outlined that they want to add trainer battles and trainer trading. There are bugs to work out but the last two days have been the most stable the servers have been since the APK leaked during the AUS/NZ leak.
Wyndstryker
Member
And still doomed to many people.
With how much of the game is based on the framework of Ingress, I can't see their development costs being too high. They'll already be profitable, or will be very soon.
Colonel Mustard
Banned
Yup. Just got back from the park (11 at night in a smallish WV town) and there were nearly a 100 people there in different groups, chatting, laughing and catching Pokemon.
This is the real deal.
Nintendo is the Zombie of Gaming industry lol. When you thought they are finished, they are back stronger and bigger lol.
i see crowds over 100 everyday in parks that used to be vacant. its just as big as people think it is.
victreeb3l
Member
I have spent $20+ on this game and will probably spend even more.
Need those bag upgrades and incense / lures @_@
Need those bag upgrades and incense / lures @_@
I love Nintendo and wish them lots of success, but the thing is though.. This game is only partly made by them, and nothing Nintendo has released in quite a while has brought hype to the average consumer.
But yeah, let's hope this is a turning point for Nintendo's downfall and a rising success with the NX, future mobile games and everything else they have in store.
7DollarHagane
Banned
It's necessary. Niantic can't make a game nearly as popular without Nintendo characters Nintendo can't have the map data and infrastructure without niantic. Same deal with App Store/android.
HarryDemeanor
Member
And they spell disaster for humanity.
SinCityAssassin
Member
If Nintendo's serious about trying to get their other apps a fraction of this lightning in a bottle, they'll observe how Pokemon Go does through the month.
I doubt it, but then again, they would be fools if they didn't update it frequently to keep interest going.
Still waiting in Thailand..
BudokaiMR2
Member
I really don't think the naysayers understand the mobile market or the psychological factor inherent in mobile retention rates.
Once these users have started putting in money they are almost guaranteed to come back periodically. I expect a lot of people to stop playing it constantly but as with most F2P apps once the hooks are in its very rare for everyone to just forget about it completely.
I have always felt that part of it is a psychological process wherein once you have put in a certain amount you feel obligated to get the most out of the app in the long term, especially considering how easy it is to just play the games casually on your commute etc.
Are there any examples of F2P games that have KPI through the roof like this which have only lasted a few months in the spotlight? As someone who actually researches this stuff, it seems like that is a rare occurrence and far from the norm. Have I missed something?
Once these users have started putting in money they are almost guaranteed to come back periodically. I expect a lot of people to stop playing it constantly but as with most F2P apps once the hooks are in its very rare for everyone to just forget about it completely.
I have always felt that part of it is a psychological process wherein once you have put in a certain amount you feel obligated to get the most out of the app in the long term, especially considering how easy it is to just play the games casually on your commute etc.
Are there any examples of F2P games that have KPI through the roof like this which have only lasted a few months in the spotlight? As someone who actually researches this stuff, it seems like that is a rare occurrence and far from the norm. Have I missed something?
Tony Iron Man Stark
Banned
I paid 13 cents of real money, along with $20.87 in Google Play credit...
mhayze
Member
Understandable doubts. But here are some figures & facts:
Over 25 million active daily players after 10 days, and it's not out in China, Japan and Korea, all of which can reasonably be expected to add millions of players, and arguably Brazil and India as well.
Average monetization per daily user so far is = $0.25/day, so it's making ~$6.25M/day that it keeps those numbers.
Let's say with the far east releases they grow by another 15 million to 40 million, even counting the inevitable fall-off for some players (being very conservative there) and that
the falloff is 25% per quarter, you will have a slightly non-standard bell curve of users, and I expect they could make something like:
Obviously some speculation here, but reasonably conservative, since it doesn't consider merchandise, spin-offs, money from businesses and other deals.
I think they will make over a billion dollars this year, unless it falls off the rails, and even then several hundreds of millions. Best case - over $2B.
Now that is money to Ninantic and Nintendo, and I don't know what the revenue sharing deal is with Google. In 2015, Nintendo made $4.5 Billion or thereabouts, so even if they keep half, that's going bolster income in a big way.
SinCityAssassin
Member
From what I see, Niantic's money is mostly through investments. 20 million dollars and an additional 10 million after milestones. Most of the revenue is split between Google, Pokemon Company, and Nintendo through their investing in Niantic (and Pokemon Company as a publisher). Because of their 1/3 ownership of the Pokemon Company, Nintendo would take 11% of the 33% of money that Pokemon Company receives from sales, along with their 1/3 share because of the investment.
Google obviously takes more money from Android platforms, but Nintendo is generally getting around a third of all the revenue from both platforms. So if Pokemon Go maintains a high grossing momentum (at least top 5) while expanding more countries and your hypothetical estimate of around 2 Billion is reached, it would net Nintendo revenue in the range of 600 million bucks. Without the Go Plus sales taken into the account also.
Do you have anything to back that up? I don't think Nintendo is getting close to a third of the revenue considering they only have 1/3rd of a stake in just one of the three companies you listed getting revenue from the app.
The success of the app and the subsequent profits from it seem to have very, very, very, little to do with Nintendo at all. The only thing they're getting is an investment boost because of the app's popularity. It's a Nintendo associated property and it's only good press for them.
SinCityAssassin
Member
I'm only voicing what I read in the article that was on neogaf earlier.
http://www.shacknews.com/article/95801/how-much-money-is-nintendo-going-to-make-off-of-pokemon-go
But yes, the success of the app is not from direct involvement from Nintendo. That does not mean they don't greatly benefit financially.
well of course they're benefiting from it. I just don't think it's nearly to the amount that people are suggesting, the biggest boost they seem to be getting is their stock shooting way up because of the app's huge success. Direct revenue and profits from the app I think is going to be way less, maybe breaking even on their investment with Niantic by the end of the year. About 30 million.
Who was near bankruptcy?
SinCityAssassin
Member
Even 11% through its ownership of Pokemon Co would still net them around 100 million if the app generates even $1 Billion.
After Nintendo branched out of their original playing card business, they went through several different ventures to see what would stick, like taxis services and love hotels. All of them failed and they were losing almost all the money until they created toys.
yeah, i responded before reading your link like a dummy, I thought they only invested through the Pokemon Co itself. Which would make my number make a bit more sense.
jellies_two
Member
I don't think the development of the game can keep up with the demand for complexity. It feels like everyone playing is catching them all for some future purpose that is unclear. The rate they are catching is much faster than any possible use we have. So those that dont see the ultimate pointlessness coming, and quit, those left will end up with the best CP 1000 to CP 2000 pokemons, and level 20+ at which point the backlash will start. It won't matter what decisions you made, really. Or if it did it will be dumb chance who played better and who played worse, because we have no idea what the ultimate purpose is.
That point will happen before they add clans, fighting, trading, tournaments and all the other stuff necessary to retain the zeitgeist.
Like twitch they are gps spoofing and cleaning up and probably making a lot of viewers, but omg it has got to be so boring for the streamers, without the socIal outdoor thing happening.
When most people have 100 or so collected the social thing starts to fall apart. Hey guys there is a pikachu over there! So what. I have him, we all do.
That point will happen before they add clans, fighting, trading, tournaments and all the other stuff necessary to retain the zeitgeist.
Like twitch they are gps spoofing and cleaning up and probably making a lot of viewers, but omg it has got to be so boring for the streamers, without the socIal outdoor thing happening.
When most people have 100 or so collected the social thing starts to fall apart. Hey guys there is a pikachu over there! So what. I have him, we all do.
frankie_baby
Member
1/3 of the pokemon company, a percentage of creatures inc that in turn own 1/3 of the Pokemon company and a percentage of niantic, overall nintendo will be doing very well out of this
Right, the link Sin posted cleared things up for me in regards to shareholder's and company stake Nintendo has in the developers of the app.
Before I assumed the only invested interests was Nintendo's 33 percent majority stake in the Pokemon Co.
They aren't factoring that Nintendo has also a minority stake in Creatures Inc.
Not to talk by the additional revenue brought in by Pokemon GO Plus.
SinCityAssassin
Member
There is a bluetooth accessory coming out called the Pokemon Go Plus, which allows you to perform the basic functions of catching and accessing pokestops (ad other functions presumably) without looking at your phone. $34.99 and manufactured directly by Nintendo. Preorders have been sold out almost everywhere for months. EBay listings reach up to 150 dollars in bids.
No, there is going to be an accessory with the same name sold for about US$ 35 :
https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01HIJ4RHC/
dreamcastmaster
Banned
It does not work in China, I've tried.