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November 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 6th

Welfare

Welfare

Member
Not going to lie, 1.1m for PS4 is pretty garbage. 1 million is also very disappointing for XB1 but wow.

I remember NDP_Mulcair made a post on how November usually results in ~1.9m/~2m total sales between the top 2, which made 2015 look even better, but I guess it happened this year if you take away Pro.

Actually, thinking about it more, much more disappointed in Xbox. I actually expected PS4 to do <1.2m originally but I expected XB1 up, so I adjusted numbers around that. Damnit.
 
D

donny2112

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Alright, I'm out.

I have a take on the market that isn't popular. I get it. I hope I'm wrong, would love to see growth and everything doing great everywhere.

See you in December, SalesGAF.

EDIT: No drama. It's all good. Happy Holidays all!
Click to expand...

Thought we expected down YOY for PS4/XB1 in their 4th Novembers, since that was the historical trend. Shouldn't be too surprising. Love to hear 3DS is having a comeback. I'm under no delusion that the dedicated handheld market is in good shape, but it's a great system so still happy to see it perk up at the end here. (^_^)

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, CosmicQueso! May all your cheese be bright.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Welfare said:
Not going to lie, 1.1m for PS4 is pretty garbage. 1 million is also very disappointing for XB1 but wow.

I remember NDP_Mulcair made a post on how November usually results in ~1.9m/~2m total sales between the top 2, which made 2015 look even better, but I guess it happened this year if you take away Pro.

Actually, thinking about it more, much more disappointed in Xbox. I actually expected PS4 to do <1.2m originally but I expected XB1 up, so I adjusted numbers around that. Damnit.
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BTW, Welfare, I just thought about this. If we assume the US has maintained the 33% of global sales for PS4 ratio and these numbers are correct, the PS4 sold roughly 4 million systems globally in October and November. Meaning, by the end of September, it was indeed 46 million sold through, probably a bit less since 50 million was as of 6th December, supposedly.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Javin98 said:
BTW, Welfare, I just thought about this. If we assume the US has maintained the 33% of global sales for PS4 ratio and these numbers are correct, the PS4 sold roughly 4 million systems globally in October and November. Meaning, by the end of September, it was indeed 46 million sold through, probably a bit less since 50 million was as of 6th December, supposedly.
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Closer to 45m since 50 million includes Cyber Monday week. That should be close to 1 million if Black Friday week was over 2 million.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Welfare said:
Closer to 45m since 50 million includes Cyber Monday week. That should be close to 1 million if Black Friday week was over 2 million.
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Yep, but still don't want to sound arrogant or anything, but I told you so. :p

On a more serious note, this is a good chance to see how the rest of the world has possibly been doing in 2016. We have the sold through numbers by the end of 2015, we have the ballpark as of October 2016, and we have the NPD numbers up to that point. I don't have the data with me, so it would be nice if someone does it.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Welfare said:
Okay, thanks!
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Now, I don't mean to boast or anything, Welfare, but for the sake of sales discussion and knowledge, could you obtain an estimate of the US:WW ratio from January to September 2016? I had the data before, but a few weeks ago, I lost all the numbers because I had to reformat my phone. :(
 
D

donny2112

Member
1.1m PS4 and 1m XB1 fits with the down YOY (although, much else could fit with down YOY, too). Haven't looked into WindowsCentral, yet, but a retweet from Xbox chief seems positive for confirmation, even if he's retweeted something bad in the past. Looking at VGC, these could be based off of their numbers, but the week of Thanksgiving/Black Friday isn't up on the site so can't be sure.

I'm willing to go with them for now, though. Will see if that works out.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Nevermind, just realized I posted them in the thread. Okay, for anyone reading this, keep in mind that these are rough estimations and if the leaked data of 1.1 million PS4's sold is incorrect, disregard this whole post.

So, by the end of September 2016, the YTD of the PS4 in the US was 2.186 million. Globally, the PS4's LTD was at least 45 million, since we know that it's at 50 million as of 6th December. In October and November, the PS4 sold around 4 million globally*, so 1 million in Cyber Monday and the week beyond seems reasonable. By the end of 2015, the LTD was 35.9 million. So, that puts the YTD figures at roughly 9.1 million. Unless I missed something, this could put the US:WW ratio at only 24%. Pretty low, I understand, which is why I wanted to hear what you guys think.

*Assuming that the US:WW ratio was back to a third in October and November
 
L

Liabe Brave

Member
Javin98 said:
Now, I don't mean to boast or anything, Welfare, but for the sake of sales discussion and knowledge, could you obtain an estimate of the US:WW ratio from January to September 2016? I had the data before, but a few weeks ago, I lost all the numbers because I had to reformat my phone. :(
Click to expand...
PS4 sold 2.175m in NPD from January to September. It shipped 9.7m worldwide. Assuming 2m units shipped were not sold-through, the US would be 28% of Sony's business. Assuming 4m units were not sold-through, the US would be 38% of Sony's business.

EDIT: I see you have slightly different numbers for NPD (mine are likely off), and calculated a different way. But it's about the same conclusion: that the US represents a third or less of worldwide sales for Sony. (And note my approach isn't affected by whether the 1.1m November is correct.)
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Liabe Brave said:
PS4 sold 2.175m in NPD from January to September. It shipped 9.7m worldwide. Assuming 2m units shipped were not sold-through, the US would be 28% of Sony's business. Assuming 4m units were not sold-through, the US would be 38% of Sony's business.
Click to expand...

PS4 YTD is 2,188,100 up to September.

I would estimate US to now be down to ~32% of the WW total as of 50m. (14.83m as of October + 1.1m November + ~300k Cyber Monday week = ~16.2m / 50m = 32.4%)
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
Liabe Brave said:
PS4 sold 2.175m in NPD from January to September. It shipped 9.7m worldwide. Assuming 2m units shipped were not sold-through, the US would be 28% of Sony's business. Assuming 4m units were not sold-through, the US would be 38% of Sony's business.

EDIT: I see you have slightly different numbers for NPD (mine are likely off), and calculated a different way. But it's about the same conclusion: that the US represents a third or less of worldwide sales for Sony. (And note my approach isn't affected by whether the 1.1m November is correct.)
Click to expand...

US being a third or around there has been the norm for Sony if you look at there past system.
So i guess nothing has change that much .
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
Javin98 said:
Well, my new estimation seeks to question that. It may not be accurate, but I feel it could be worth discussing.
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Well this gen not done yet so it can go up on down a few percent .
Still so far it look like it in line with other gens if you look at old systems LTD numbers .
It going to be interesting to see how it goes in the next few years and what the % end up being .
 
M

MacTag

Banned
gundamkyoukai said:
Well this gen not done yet so it can go up on down a few percent .
Still so far it look like it in line with other gens if you look at old systems LTD numbers .
It going to be interesting to see how it goes in the next few years and what the % end up being .
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Given Japan's stagnation/collapse, does that mean PAL is taking up more than usual then if NA is only consistent?
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
MacTag said:
Given Japan's stagnation/collapse, does that mean PAL is taking up more than usual then if NA is only consistent?
Click to expand...

PAL is picking up some of the slack but it also other market in the rest of the world.
Like Asia , Middle east and a few more growing markets .
 
N

Nightengale

Member
Unlike US/UK/parts of Europe that enjoy lavish discounts and good deals, that is a lot rarer in parts of East Asia where prices are generally very stiff to RRP and deals are rare, so by nature, there is less big boost in said markets, but growth should be more stable since the impulse of early purchasing or deal-buys are much much rarer here.
 
R

Rymuth

Member
Nightengale said:
He did? Then I retract my statement. Will wait to see if real or not from other sources.
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In one instance, he added the Wii U's numbers to the fold and combined both PS4/XB1 numbers. Thus, making the numbers more impressive than they are. Both Cosmic and Zhuge called him out on it.
 
T

tattooed_dwarf

Member
ethomaz said:
I can see US down for PS4 but not 20-30% down.... 1400k is the minimum I see for PS4 this November.
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Are you ok, ethomaz?

Quite a drop for both, especially PS4 with Pro preorders. Though Sony didn't have bundles like last year. Seems just that many took Sony BF PR granted and forgot what was conveniently left out, that's that they clearly talked about WW numbers.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Friends of crapgamer cannot be bad people. If Greenberg tweets them that's proof enough to trust them.
Only sad WiiU got ignored once again.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
tattooed_dwarf said:
Are you ok, ethomaz?

Quite a drop for both, especially PS4 with Pro preorders. Though Sony didn't have bundles like last year. Seems just that many took Sony BF PR granted and forgot what was conveniently left out, that's that they clearly talked about WW numbers.
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It is a disaster for both consoles... for PS4 is even looks ridiculous with the launch of Pro unless 1.1m is just non-Pro consoles but the site says family.

BTW are these numbers confirmed???

No company is happy this month that makes the price cuts for December a desperate move due the weak performance in November.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
ethomaz said:
It is a disaster for both consoles... for PS4 is even looks ridiculous with the launch of Pro unless 1.1m is just non-Pro consoles but the site says family.

BTW are these numbers confirmed???
Click to expand...
Yes because Greenberg retweeted it. Pretty bad on both sides but software really helps explain why both are down so much. This November was both barren and garbage for console software.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
ethomaz said:
No company is happy this month that makes the price cuts for December a desperate move due the weak performance in November.
Click to expand...

This make no sense since they did the same thing last year and they had much better bundles and software .
In fact Sony most likely made more money this year comapre to last year .
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Welfare said:
Yes because Greenberg retweeted it. Pretty bad on both sides but software really helps explain why both are down so much. This November was both barren and garbage for console software.
Click to expand...
Another source except Greenberg confirmed it?

I expect the software being down most because CoD drop but even accounting for that the hardware numbers are pretty bad.
 
C

Chocolate & Vanilla

Fuck Strawberry
Welfare said:
Yes because Greenberg retweeted it. Pretty bad on both sides but software really helps explain why both are down so much. This November was both barren and garbage for console software.
Click to expand...


I mean, his job in this instance is to perpetuate the idea that the gap is small. Him retweeting it does not alone confirm its accuracy. Only that it fits with their PR goal of diminishing the chances of people thinking there is any kind of significant gap.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
ethomaz said:
Another source except Greenberg confirmed it?

I expect the software being down most because CoD drop but even accounting for that the hardware numbers are pretty bad.
Click to expand...

You forget that fallout 4 and battlefront came out last year Nov .
Nothing this year comes close to the 2 of them plus COD being way down .
 
J

Jarod McChicken

Member
Based on those numbers, the Pro was barely enough to achieve a very small win, which is probably not even a win considering that the PS4 is now down YoY in the US for the sixth month. For Xbox, being suddenly down YoY in November is also pretty disappointing.

With little impact from the Pro in December, the multiple Xbox One bundles (hello Minecraft) should surpass easily the one and only PS4 bundle, even with the 250$ week.

Extremely disappointing results for Sony in the US this year. Fortunately, the 50 million PR already told us everything we need to know about the state of the PS4 worldwide. I don't think they will achieve the 20 million target for the fiscal year, but they will be close, and damn, 2017 is looking fantastic on the software side.

The tone of Windows Central is a fanboy joke though. Painting the PS VR numbers in a bad light (at least tells us what it did in October if you have the numbers, because even Aqua did not whisper those one to the followers) when no one has a real perspective of it (what are the numbers of Oculus and Vive ? what numbers was Sony expecting ?) and saying that the PS VR is "competing with Windows-based VR solutions" is a complete joke.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Like wow, holy shit. Why would Greenberg retweet that if it wasn't accurate? 1m and 1.1m are the rounded results. That is the best source.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Jarod McChicken said:
Based on those numbers, the Pro was barely enough to achieve a very small win, which is probably not even a win considering that the PS4 is now down YoY in the US for the sixth month. For Xbox, being suddenly down YoY in November is also pretty disappointing.

With little impact of the Pro in December, the multiple Xbox One bundles (especially Minecraft) should surpass easily the one and only PS4 bundle, even with the 250$ week.

Extremely disappointing results for Sony in the US. Fortunately, the 50 million PR already told us everything we need to know about the state of the PS4 worldwide. I don't think they will achieve the 20 million target for the fiscal year, but they will be close.

The tone of Windows Central article is a fanboy joke though. Painting the PS VR numbers in a bad light (at least tells us what it did in October if you have the numbers) when no one has a real perspective of it (what are the numbers of Oculus and Vive ?) and saying that the PS VR is "competing with Windows-based VR solutions" is a complete joke.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm inclined to believe that Xbox One will take december.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Welfare said:
Like wow, holy shit. Why would Greenberg retweet that if it wasn't accurate? 1m and 1.1m are the rounded results. That is the best source.
Click to expand...
Greenberg retweet any article somebody quote him that talks good about Xbox even when the article uses banned site data.

I'm not saying he is lying this time I just want a second confirmation ;) while that didn't happen I will believe the numbers are true.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
ethomaz said:
Greenberg retweet any article somebody quote him that talks good about Xbox even when the article uses banned site data.
Click to expand...

I think you have to realize that these rounded numbers are most likely the real thing.

I know that you had high expectations for PS4, but apparently didn't happened.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Bitch Pudding said:
Because no one in his position - and with his insights - would tweet false numbers. That's just not imaginable, because no one with a right mind would believe a single word he sais ever again.
Click to expand...
I was more questioning why you say his "last bit" of professional credibility is at stake, but whatever.

And like you said, he wouldn't retweet a lie. Greenberg is literally the best source for this right now and you don't need to question it.
 
B

blakep267

Member
Guymelef said:
1.1M for PS4+Pro is Scorpio dead before born.

MS should be worried, Europe isn't going to save them.
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I just think Sony didn't a terrible job of marketing the Pro and didn't really fully commit to it.it felt half hearted In the sense that they really didn't tell consumers that this is what you need, it felt more like this is a nice thing to have of you want it.

I expect MS to go hard with the Scorpio and pretty much stop talking about the S when the time comes(they are still going to sell the S of course). Also I think they are saving a few games to make it really feel like a "new" console launch. By saving games I mean I expect them to have all those games they announced( Crackdown, State of Decay, Scalebound) & maybe Forza & something else all ready for the Scorpio launch date as showcases
 
G

Guymelef

Member
blakep267 said:
I just think Sony didn't a terrible job of marketing the Pro and didn't really fully commit to it.it felt half hearted In the sense that they really didn't tell consumers that this is what you need, it felt more like this is a nice thing to have of you want it.

I expect MS to go hard with the Scorpio and pretty much stop talking about the S when the time comes(they are still going to sell the S of course). Also I think they are saving a few games to make it really feel like a "new" console launch. By saving games I mean I expect them to have all those games they announced( Crackdown, State of Decay, Scalebound) & maybe Forza & something else all ready for the Scorpio launch date as showcases
Click to expand...

So they are saving games to send them to die against Star Wars, Destiny, Red Dead 2...
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Guymelef said:
1.1M for PS4+Pro is Scorpio dead before born.

MS should be worried, Europe isn't going to save them.
Click to expand...

I think Microsoft strategy is different. Scorpio it's kind of a Xbox One successor. I believe the machine will be marketed and seen as a deeper step compared with PS4 Pro.
 
C

chromatic9

Member
Liabe Brave said:
If the Windows Central leak is true--and they are usually reliable--the numbers are pretty bad for both companies.
Click to expand...

Windows Central guy Jez Corden goes on the Mooch/crapgamer podcast. Did he give them the info or did he get it from them and made an article?

Probably true as we've seen lots of game sales down in the US so it wouldn't surprise me and Xbox S is doing really well against the PS4 and Pro but shit all round.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
blakep267 said:
I just think Sony didn't a terrible job of marketing the Pro and didn't really fully commit to it.it felt half hearted In the sense that they really didn't tell consumers that this is what you need, it felt more like this is a nice thing to have of you want it.

I expect MS to go hard with the Scorpio and pretty much stop talking about the S when the time comes(they are still going to sell the S of course). Also I think they are saving a few games to make it really feel like a "new" console launch. By saving games I mean I expect them to have all those games they announced( Crackdown, State of Decay, Scalebound) & maybe Forza & something else all ready for the Scorpio launch date as showcases
Click to expand...

Sony will market the Pro more when the times comes .
I don't know why people expect big Pro sales in this Nov .
If Sony wanted they could have cyber monday deals going on much longer like they have for the slim .
Sony could also have better slim bundles but for what ever reason they take it easy this year .
 
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