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[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

amazon back at it with a 25$GC bundle for 250 ps4

 

[Elandyll]

But the question would be, do those third party bundles cause more consumers to buy a PS4? Going with WindowsCentral 1.1M PS4's, would a CoD bundle have the PS4 doing 1.1M plus an additional amount of what the CoD bundle would sell or would the end result still be 1.1M, just with less UC4 bundles?

Sony probably figured CoD or Watch Dogs 2 would not help sell more consoles than what they were already projecting.

Yes, I think they would definitely be selling more (to what extent i unknown) with a recent AAA packed in, and with the (normally that is) appeal of a COD particularly, as demonstrated by last year's sales of the Blops III bundle.

Now, the big question probably was: is the extra cost of packing-in a 3rd party $60 title offset by the extra appeal vs a 1st party game (0 cost) that's 6 months old and not particularly known for it's long term MP appeal (though probably good, I'm not sure that the UC MP has much draw, but that' only afaik)?

Imo it looks like Sony (at least SIEA, as SIEE arrived to a different conclusion) decided that they had their market covered between the slim and the pro, and that there was no need to spend extra on a 3rd party bundle for this Holiday.
We'll see in January with the December sales if they were correct, but an (allegedly) 28% down yoy in Nov with a brand new Hardware sku in that same month is already a sign that they weren't imo.

 

[Boke1879]

What a waste to have CoD marketing with no bundle. Lost opportunity.

What a waste it would be to bundle it with a game with literally half the interest of it's previous iteration. You're probably looking at a bundle that would barely move the needle while costing more at the same price.

 

[blakep267]

What a waste it would be to bundle it with a game with literally half the interest of it's previous iteration. You're probably looking at a bundle that would barely move the needle while costing more at the same price.

That's hindsight though. Bundling COd with the slim or even the pro would've helped early on when people didn't know it sucked

 

[Boke1879]

Yes, I think they would definitely be selling more (to what extent i unknown) with a recent AAA packed in, and with the (normally that is) appeal of a COD particularly, as demonstrated by last year's sales of the Blops III bundle.

Now, the big question was probably was: is the extra cost of packing-in a 3rd party $60 title offset by the extra appeal vs a 1st party game (0 cost) that's 6 months old and not particularly known for it's long term MP appeal (though probably good, I'm not sure that the UC MP has much draw, but that' only afaik)?

Imo it looks like Sony (at least SIEA, as SIEE arrived to a different conclusion) decided that they had their market covered between the slim and the pro, and that there was no need to spend extra on a 3rd party bundle for this Holiday.
We'll see in January with the December sales if they were correct, but an (allegedly) 28% down yoy in Nov with a brand new Hardware sku in that same month is already a sign that they weren't imo.

Both consoles were down yoy even with MS having a popular pack in and a MC bundle. . Both consoles were going to be down yoy regardless. Like Welfare said how much would that bundle have really done? I think it would be negligible.

 

[KillerMan91]

It is hard to impose some kind of order on the market right now, but I'm gonna stab at it.

One thing that gets lost is discussions is churn. I understand that the console market has tremendous churn, lots of people leave the market which means a bunch must enter if things are to stay in equilibrium. Exits occur when gameplayers change life stages, eg going to uni, entering workforce, getting married, etc. Exits may also be gradual, as interest tapers instead of a cold turkey dinner thing. Age of exit is probably 18-40, depending on how long it takes individuals to get to the various stages.

When do people enter the console market? The bulk probably enter as kids, and usually at Christmas: I'm guessing 8-16.

So, if the console market starts to see a reduction in new player aquisition assuming the exit rate remains the same, how will that be reflected in sales? Well, fewer consoles under trees and fewer sales of big Christmas season releases while other releases remain mostly unaffected at the start.

Is that happening here? Couldn't tell you because I'm just throwing out baseless ideas here, but modelling an unstable, high churn population is an interesting exercise.

We have seen pretty much opposite direction this gen. Christmas season is bigger and bigger part of the whole year sales. I mean the story around both PS4 and Xbox One during these starting years has been doom around non-holiday months and then huge gains against PS3 and X360 during holiday seasons. I mean if this 1.1 million figure is real for PS4 it's still bigger amount than PS3 did during any November in its life. Also 1 million for Xbox One is still more than X360 did 2008 (836k) even if the whole year comparison is going to X360.

 

[Boke1879]

That's hindsight though. Bundling COd with the slim or even the pro would've helped early on when people didn't know it sucked

The game came out long before Black Friday. The interest just wasn't there. I know this is NPD, but the PS4 has more WW appeal, and no matter what people want to say the UC4 bundle is selling while earning a nice bit of money.

If they hit their target of 60 million this FY then this convo doesn't really mean much.

 

[Elandyll]

Both consoles were down yoy even with MS having a popular pack in and a MC bundle. . Both consoles were going to be down yoy regardless. Like Welfare said how much would that bundle have really done? I think it would be negligible.

The XB1 didn't have a new Hardware sKU with 3 months worth of pre orders in that same month.

 

[Welfare]

Http://venturebeat.com/2016/12/15/n...units-in-november-in-the-united-states-alone/

NES Classic sold 196K

Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare
Battlefield 1
Pokémon Sun*
Pokémon Moon*
Titanfall 2
NBA 2K17
Madden NFL 17
Watch Dogs 2
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim*
FIFA 17

3DS up 59% YoY

“The PlayStation 4 was the top-selling hardware system in the month, driven by the PS4 Slim System 500GB Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End Bundle,” said Naji. “This SKU accounted for 30 percent of all hardware units sold.”

Pokemon Sun Moon up 8% from B&W

 

[Clear]

We have seen pretty much opposite direction this gen. Christmas season is bigger and bigger part of the whole year sales. I mean the story around both PS4 and Xbox One during these starting years has been doom around non-holiday months and then huge gains against PS3 and X360 during holiday seasons. I mean if this 1.1 million figure is real for PS4 it's still bigger amount than PS3 did during any November in its life.

Its also a win when you consider its historically always been MS strongest month in the US .

To be honest I think a lot of the shock value is coming from the realization that better performance hardware for the same software library/ecosystem isn't that much of a system seller for the mass market. I think that Scorpio is going to perform very similarly next holiday season.

 

[allan-bh]

Http://venturebeat.com/2016/12/15/n...units-in-november-in-the-united-states-alone/

NES Classic sold 196K

I thought would sell better. Famicom Mini sold ~260k first week in Japan.

 

[NateDrake]

Http://venturebeat.com/2016/12/15/n...units-in-november-in-the-united-states-alone/

NES Classic sold 196K

That's a really low allocation for a hot device during the holiday season. Nintendo failed to gauge demand for this product.

 

[Boke1879]

The XB1 didn't have a new Hardware sKU with 3 months worth of pre orders in that same month.

I'm not sure the point you're trying to make? but still the PS4 slim and Pro probably made more money for Sony than adding another 3rd party bundle with less margins for $250.

WW Sony saw their best Black Friday ever, and they are at 50 million sold. I just don't see why they would be in a rush to put out 2 bundles consumers don't really seem to be clamoring for.

 

[Boke1879]

That's a really low allocation for a hot device during the holiday season. Nintendo failed to gauge demand for this product.

and they need to get shit for it.

 

[allan-bh]

Pokémon Sun/Moon biggest debut in franchise history. 8% better than Black/White with 19 fewer days.

 

[slavesnyder]

The truth is, Nes classic brought down console sales. It will be counted in the toys caregory.

 

[blakep267]

That's a really low allocation for a hot device during the holiday season. Nintendo failed to gauge demand for this product.

They really did. In a few months nobody is going to care about it so they should've capitalized as much as possible now while its hyped

 

[KillerMan91]

I thought would sell better. Famicom Mini sold ~260k first week in Japan.

I would assume it's completely sold out. At least here in Finland next shipments are in January....

 

[SneakersSO]

It looks like there really are no plans for any other PS4 bundles this year. That is just insane to me. Did they just way overstocked UC4 bundles or something?

Tons of UC4 bundles + higher profit margins + higher MC scoring title in the box is a much better deal, imo. Yes, CoD is a bigger name, but this is literally the year to skip on COD, seeing as how interest is at an all time low, as well as sales figures. On the flipside, BF1 is a tremendous bundle for MS, on the back of a much higher selling title.

Its honestly hard to say just what would've happened if a CoD bundle were on shelves this year for Sony, but Sony is obviously going a more high-margin/safe route when it comes to their business plan this year. To be fair, this is literally the year to go conservative if you can, when next year they have deals signed on almost every major fall/holiday 3rd party with the exception of maybe Assassin's Creed Egypt.

This was clearly a hardware holiday season for Sony. I wasn't a big fan of the business plan, but these machines (PS VR, Pro) needed to launch at some point. Might as well do it now.

 

[Mpl90]

Of course the NES Classic is sold out, we've heard so many reports about the availability problems.

...What the fuck at that small shipment. It's smaller than the one for Japan, the hell happened.

 

[allan-bh]

Pokemon Black & White sold ~2.5 million, so Pokemon Sun/Moon sold ~2.7 million

 

[Sterok]

The story isn’t all about pocket monsters. Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare also launched in November, and it would top the list if you don’t combine Pokémon Sun and Moon into one game.

Wait, so did Pokemon actually win?

 

[hanspampel]

so 3ds sold ~550k if my numbers are correct

 

[Elandyll]

I'm not sure the point you're trying to make? but still the PS4 slim and Pro probably made more money for Sony than adding another 3rd party bundle with less margins for $250.

WW Sony saw their best Black Friday ever, and they are at 50 million sold. I just don't see why they would be in a rush to put out 2 bundles consumers don't really seem to be clamoring for.

My point, as we've been discussing, is that sony America left sales on the floor (to which amount, again is unknown) by not having a choice of 3rd party pack in like last year. They chose to prioritize profit over unit sold.

In contrast, sony Europe had not only great prices but also a ton of bundles to choose from (3 COD IW, 1 Watchdog, 3 Holiday bundles), and it looks like they had record sales (if we are to believe sony and their "best Black Friday week ever) and the UK sales.
The Ps4 i also selling very well in Japan atm and has multiple bundles as well (P5, FFXV, Yakua6...)

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2...t-for-ps4-hardware-sales-since-console-launch

However you look at it, the drop in the Us (again if the numbers we have are correct) is much, much more severe for Ps4 than the XB1 too, particularly when the Pro hardware release is taken in account.

 

[hanspampel]

Wait, so did Pokemon actually win?

no CoD IW would still win, if pokemon sun and moon would be one combined sku.
but just on a revenue base including digital sales (pokemon is without digital)
not on a physical only unit base.
COD IW is <2.4m units

 

[allan-bh]

so 3ds sold ~550k if my numbers are correct

350k last year, so ~556k.

Too bad for my 750k prediction.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Wait, so did Pokemon actually win?

By phrasing, overall. If counting the two games separately, then Infinite Warfare comes out ahead.

 

[RoKKeR]

Seems like a solid bounce-back for Titanfall 2?

 

[Blanquito]

As all titles outside of the top 3 grew a combined 12% vs a year ago, it's the top three for grouping that drove the year on year decline.

Interesting.

 

[Loris146]

Pokemon Black & White sold ~2.5 million, so Pokemon Sun/Moon sold ~2.7 million

Amazing result.

 

[allan-bh]

Seems like a solid bounce-back for Titanfall 2?

Great news, the game is amazing.

 

[KillerMan91]

Its also a win when you consider its historically always been MS strongest month in the US .

To be honest I think a lot of the shock value is coming from the realization that better performance hardware for the same software library/ecosystem isn't that much of a system seller for the mass market. I think that Scorpio is going to perform very similarly next holiday season.

I mean I was one of those people that tought that with Pro model at least PS4 should be flat yoy this November but it seems that wasn't a case. So I eat crow for that. But now in hindsight when you consider sw situation this holidays season it was pretty poor. BF1 is pretty much only title selling really well compared to past entries. Cod and WD are massively down and Dishonored 2 was pretty much non factor even before release. Next holiday season looks better already even if we are 1 year away from it. Battlefront 2 with new Star Wars movie, Battlefield 5, Destiny 2, RDR2 (after absolutely huge GTA V) and maybe new COD does better than Infinite Warfare. Maybe some of these titles will get delay but if not it will be absolutely huge holiday season.

 

[noshten]

Seems like a solid bounce-back for Titanfall 2?

Expected result.

Weren't most of Titanfalls sales once the price went down a bit? Sure it had a good launch but it was a new Shooter IP that had average reviews due to lacking SP(or whatever) during times where the new gen machine were strived for games.
I don't know it might have been a big launch but it was around spring/early summer.
I'm sure with good discounts and some promotion Titanfall 2 could do well in the holidays.

In terms of commercial failure unless we know how much was invested - we can't really speculate on the numbers. I'm sure a lot of people might look at Titanfalls overall sales but the games could be bought for $5 on PC in less than 6 months of launch. I don't know where the expectations of Titanfall being able to rival franchises with dedicated fans came from - the launch date still makes sense for me unless they really sank a lot of money into the game. Simply put if your first game sold at a lower price but you were happy with this model releasing the second game before the holidays - discounting it 50% might be a more financially viable strategy.

350k last year, so ~556k.

To bad for my 750k prediction.

Hey 750k is fine I had no idea 3ds was such an unattractive thing to buy I always fail at my NPD predictions... I was expecting a million due to 2DS pricing.

so 3ds sold ~550k if my numbers are correct

350k last year, so ~556k.

Too bad for my 750k prediction.

BTW what are you guys basing these numbers on?

 

[SneakersSO]

I mean I was one of those people that tought that with Pro model at least PS4 should be flat yoy this November but it seems that wasn't a case. So I eat crow for that. But now in hindsight when you consider sw situation this holidays season it was pretty poor. BF1 is pretty much only title selling really well compared to past entries. Cod and WD are massively down and Dishonored 2 was pretty much non factor even before release. Next holiday season looks better already even if we are 1 year away from it. Battlefront 2 with new Star Wars movie, Battlefield 5, Destiny 2, RDR2 (after absolutely huge GTA V) and maybe new COD does better than Infinite Warfare. Maybe some of these titles will get delay but if not it will be absolutely huge holiday season.

There is no Battlefield gaming launching next year; EA has said we will not be seeing the next entry for Battlefield for some time, and are choosing to support BF1 instead. Battlefront 2 is their shooter for next year.

Next year we also get Destiny 2, RDR 2, a new CoD, and an Assassin's Creed game. 4 out of the 5 projected 'big' holiday 3rd party titles for fall/holiday 2017 have deals with Sony that we know of. If there is going to be any year to push software and hardware, next year is the one to do it.

 

[hanspampel]

[3DS] 650K +/- 150K
[PS4] 1250K +/- 200K
[WIU] 150K +/- 50K
[XB1] 1550K +/- 100K

despite my big overestimate for xbox one, i did quite good

 

[Old Gimlet Eyes]

I mean I was one of those people that tought that with Pro model at least PS4 should be flat yoy this November but it seems that wasn't a case. So I eat crow for that. But now in hindsight when you consider sw situation this holidays season it was pretty poor. BF1 is pretty much only title selling really well compared to past entries. Cod and WD are massively down and Dishonored 2 was pretty much non factor even before release. Next holiday season looks better already even if we are 1 year away from it. Battlefront 2 with new Star Wars movie, Battlefield 5, Destiny 2, RDR2 (after absolutely huge GTA V) and maybe new COD does better than Infinite Warfare. Maybe some of these titles will get delay but if not it will be absolutely huge holiday season.

Pretty sure EA said no new battlefield for next year...

 

[blakep267]

I'm interested in the titanfall numbers. It charted well but the concurrency numbers are still pretty bad on the Xbox

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

What a waste it would be to bundle it with a game with literally half the interest of it's previous iteration. You're probably looking at a bundle that would barely move the needle while costing more at the same price.

Yeah you're right, but I think even a weak CoD would probably get more attention than a UC4 bundle.

 

[Toki767]

The way Titanfall 2 prices dropped like a rock it better have charted.

Those NES Classic numbers though. Leaving money on the table in classic Nintendo fashion.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

The way Titanfall 2 prices dropped like a rock it better have charted.

Those NES Classic numbers though. Leaving money on the table in classic Nintendo fashion.

Yup and you just know they'll respond too late and then overproduce and have loads of them just sit there like how Amiibos are now.

Who needs to meet demand when demand is high when you can oversupply when there's little to no demand?

 

[SneakersSO]

Yeah you're right, but I think even a weak CoD would probably get more attention than a UC4 bundle.

CoD isn't getting attention on its own, and thats with a remaster of CoD4 & IW going on sale. Sure, they might move maybe 100k units more, maybe 150k, but this way they get a larger profit margin on each unit sold, which they're obviously going to need if SIEA is planning on countering the Scorpio in NA with 4 major 3rd party marketing deals next year.

 

[Mister Megative]

Hey guys, did I miss the funeral for consoles?

 

[Boke1879]

CoD isn't getting attention on its own, and thats with a remaster of CoD4 & IW going on sale. Sure, they might move maybe 100k units more, maybe 150k, but this way they get a larger profit margin on each unit sold, which they're obviously going to need if SIEA is planning on countering the Scorpio in NA with 4 major 3rd party marketing deals next year.

While also dropping the price of Slim and Pro when Scorpio launches.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

Hey guys, did I miss the funeral for consoles?

Consoles died so hard there was no money for a funeral.

 

[foltzie1]

Hey guys, did I miss the funeral for consoles?

Consoles died so hard there was no money for a funeral.

Should have saved some of those 360 coffins.

 

[Welfare]

Where is the actual NPD thread? All those split threads are clutter.

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

Where is the actual NPD thread? All those split threads are clutter.

gone with the numbers, breh

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

Hardware sales down 35%

 

[zeroOman]

gone with the numbers, breh

so we don't have the number yet

 

[cakely]

despite my big overestimate for xbox one, i did quite good

You predicted 1500k for the Xbox One? And an Xbox One win? That's not good, that's simply wrong.