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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
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Art Vandilay
Member
No way in hell Nintendo sells a dock only Switch for $99. You're lost, Sawyer.
Hard to say, I like the concept of the hardware and such. Butttt then there's some real "Not like this, Nintendo..." stuff such as the voice chat through phone app, a free NES/SNES game each month that doesn't carry over to the next month, etc.
Zelda has me too hyped and I tentatively have one pre-ordered, but I'm firmly in the 'a bit better than Wii U/GameCube' camp as far as sales go.
Zelda has me too hyped and I tentatively have one pre-ordered, but I'm firmly in the 'a bit better than Wii U/GameCube' camp as far as sales go.
Calcium
Banned
Especially considering it'll be available for the Wii U. I can't fathom people buying a Switch just to play Zelda when they can just get it for the Wii U, but that's what Nintendo is banking on. They deliver the Zelda, you give them your money. Same old Nintendo, which is why I don't see them improving their position.
I'm sure people who skipped out on the Wii U will get Zelda on the Swtich, but yeah. That isn't saying much since it would probably only be the Zelda faithful. Riding on Zelda alone to drive units was not what I was expecting for Nintendo to do.
I wanted them coming out swing left and right but lol
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
This is all Nintendo has, they're going to probably pull out all stops on trying to make it successful. It goes against the SWITCH name, though, which is why they may not do it...but the hardware inside the unit isn't anywhere near impressive or expensive, and certainly will be very cheap to produce in a year or two (if not now).
They could easily release a very cheap dock. The sooner they do this the better, IMHO.
Personally expecting another Wii U situation. Aside from the great JRPG's they showed. They don't have the 3rd parties that will sell systems. It's not getting COD, Mass Effect, RDR, Battlefield etc.
I talked a lot of shit yesterday, but I still put in a preorder on amazon, but real talk. The launch lineup is terrible. Of course the main draw is Zelda, but outside of that there is nothing that would sell a system, You have to wait over a month for a port of Mario Kart with some bells and whistles. Only a tentative Summer 2017 for Splatoon. And Mario in the holiday. And for some reason I doubt XB2 comes out this year.
I just don't think outside of the nintendo faithful and outside of that hardcore that this has much appeal right now.
I talked a lot of shit yesterday, but I still put in a preorder on amazon, but real talk. The launch lineup is terrible. Of course the main draw is Zelda, but outside of that there is nothing that would sell a system, You have to wait over a month for a port of Mario Kart with some bells and whistles. Only a tentative Summer 2017 for Splatoon. And Mario in the holiday. And for some reason I doubt XB2 comes out this year.
I just don't think outside of the nintendo faithful and outside of that hardcore that this has much appeal right now.
Yeah it's that's the size it's already dead in 2014. It died before the GameCube because WOHA
LiquidSolid
Member
I went into the reveal event thinking it'd basically be a Nintendo handheld, down from the 3DS because of current trends but better than most of their consoles. With that price, games lineup and online system, however, no fucking way, not unless there's a big price cut and relaunch. So I'll go with Gamecube tier at this point.
Art Vandilay
Member
See my edit. $99 is a pipe dream.
A "success?" Yes. A resounding triumph? Maybe not.
I think it has enough broad appeal and good engineering to do quite well when backed up by Nintendo's top-tier software. I also think it will be an indie darling, and breakout indie hits are only getting more common with time.
Additionally, though it will never appeal to the crowd that idealizes graphical fidelity, it will offer some crossover functionality to some of them by virtue of being portable and closer to the experience that they are used to than other portables.
However, I think it will fall short of Wii levels of success due to how much more ubiquitous high-end experiences are in 2017 than ever before. Big name third party devs are chasing that visual cutting edge in a sort of arms race, and the Switch has opted to disarm in a traditional sense. This was true during the Wii's run as well, but not on the level that it is now.
I think the direction is a wise one for them, but it's the nature of the market now that focusing on A) pure power vs price and B) third party BIG hitters is the path to #1. See PS4.
That said, I think it will be a phenomenal system that Nintendo fans love and that the casual market will embrace for a while before letting it go. Casuals are as casual about their attention span as they are their indulgences, after all. Revisions and other form factors based on the same scalable platform could help as well.
I hate making sales predictions, but the OP was clear, so... Considering iterations of the platform going forward as well:
Lifetime: 55m
I think it has enough broad appeal and good engineering to do quite well when backed up by Nintendo's top-tier software. I also think it will be an indie darling, and breakout indie hits are only getting more common with time.
Additionally, though it will never appeal to the crowd that idealizes graphical fidelity, it will offer some crossover functionality to some of them by virtue of being portable and closer to the experience that they are used to than other portables.
However, I think it will fall short of Wii levels of success due to how much more ubiquitous high-end experiences are in 2017 than ever before. Big name third party devs are chasing that visual cutting edge in a sort of arms race, and the Switch has opted to disarm in a traditional sense. This was true during the Wii's run as well, but not on the level that it is now.
I think the direction is a wise one for them, but it's the nature of the market now that focusing on A) pure power vs price and B) third party BIG hitters is the path to #1. See PS4.
That said, I think it will be a phenomenal system that Nintendo fans love and that the casual market will embrace for a while before letting it go. Casuals are as casual about their attention span as they are their indulgences, after all. Revisions and other form factors based on the same scalable platform could help as well.
I hate making sales predictions, but the OP was clear, so... Considering iterations of the platform going forward as well:
Lifetime: 55m
TheSadRanger
Banned
Kinda bugs me that Gamecube gets so backhanded at times......-_-
That was the last little console Nintendo put out that actually competed against the competition in terms of visuals/performance and had a pretty damn awesome little library with at least some third
party support.
/shrug, Honestly I enjoyed my Gamecube more as a whole during it's time in the early 00's than my N64 in the mid-late 90's
That was the last little console Nintendo put out that actually competed against the competition in terms of visuals/performance and had a pretty damn awesome little library with at least some third
capcom
/shrug, Honestly I enjoyed my Gamecube more as a whole during it's time in the early 00's than my N64 in the mid-late 90's
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
I was exaggerating a bit, but I think if they get a dock only priced at $150 that is an achievable number while still being profitable.
I fucking LOVED the Gamecube!!
sssstententen
Member
When people talk about the gamecube in that way they mean units/financial success. The gamecube was not a smash hit. It did fine, but it had issues, and didn't sell as well as it could have.
People around here loved the Gamecube, it had fantastic hardware, amazing software, and a nice third party following. Don't take it personally, people are referring to its financial success first and foremost.
My wife and I are both big Nintendo fans and play Wii and Wii U together regularly and neither of us are impressed. 1-2 Switch looks horrible - I wouldn't play it more than once even if it was free. Arms looks like a $10 game - maybe fun for an hour or two at most. Zelda looks great but I already have a Wii U. Splatoon 2 looks like a minor upgrade and if I have to pay to play it online I probably won't bother. Mario Odyssey does look fantastic but I can't justify the cost just for one game. Nintendo better show off a few more killer games at E3 (Pokemon ya dummies) to be released by the end of the year otherwise there is no chance I buy it until next year at the earliest. If a hardcore Nintendo household like mine with 20+ Wii U games isn't interested then I think Nintendo is in big trouble.
joecanada
Member
Holy shit I thought it would take at least till first npd to see this
MegaSackman
Member
I'll do well enough for us to get the Super Nintendo Switch, I mean since we didn't get the Super Nintendo Wii.
If the price goes down to $200 MSRP it will probably be 3DS 2.0. Otherwise I don't see the average consumer being interested. $60 per game will also be hard to swallow if potential buyers are used to $40 3DS games.
As a $300 system it's competing head-on with PS4 and XB1, and buyers in that group value eye candy and game diversity over portability and Nintendo exclusives. The Switch has to be perceived as a desirable handheld to be a success and the main factor that determines that (price/value) is still under Nintendo's control, unlike hardware specs which are fixed and have determined the Switch's fate as a gimped home console in today's market.
As a $300 system it's competing head-on with PS4 and XB1, and buyers in that group value eye candy and game diversity over portability and Nintendo exclusives. The Switch has to be perceived as a desirable handheld to be a success and the main factor that determines that (price/value) is still under Nintendo's control, unlike hardware specs which are fixed and have determined the Switch's fate as a gimped home console in today's market.
WhiteWaterM00se
Member
If Switch had honest level of third party support as good as Gamecube, it would be successful for Nintendo. Better than 3ds I would suspect.
Garrett Hawke
Member
I think when it gets a 3ds style ambassador program it'll be fine. probably go on to outsell the wii u handily.
going to be a rough first year tho lmao
going to be a rough first year tho lmao
Art Vandilay
Member
They could definitely sell it cheaper without a screen and different battery. I just don't see that happening.
[Insert Lost reference]
Fine Ham Abounds
Member
The problem is the market for the next Wii is gone. It's been gone for almost a decade. GAF is down on the Switch because of power and price, two things everyone else still interested in consoles is. GAF however is also full of the Nintendo clique who play nothing else or Nintendo + PC exclusively, so it's also fairly representative of the defense and hyperbolic hype this is also getting.
This thing will probably sell well at launch, tank enormously under expections afterwards, and then recover modestly should they have the sense to price drop as quickly as they did the 3DS.
Personally I'm in the camp who don't really play anything but PC anymore because I don't see the point of iterative consoles. I'll get a Switch after a price drop because Nintendo has the only console exclusives I care about.
Weltall Zero
Member
"Exaggerating a bit" is saying you can bench press 60 Kg when you can only reliably press 50 Kg. Expecting a dock-only Switch for $99 is "being on drugs". Not smoking a joint, mind you, I'm talking the kind of stuff you have to travel to other countries and ask the tribe witch doctor for.
For that matter, $150 seems squarely in fantasy land too, but at least the areas of it where you can still see the real world from, if you squint.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
"GAF is full of elitist shut-ins"
"My friends and I already planned a launch LAN party for the latest iteration of an obscure decades-old Japanese puzzle game."
This is something else.
Killer Queen
Banned
I see Wii U part 2
Fuck what Nintendo and their fans claim. It's a handheld, it looks like a handheld, it acts like a handheld, it plays like a handheld, it's just one that happens to connect to a TV and thus should be priced accordingly.
It's not powerful enough nor does it have the library to compete with either the Xbox or the PS4 so there's really no excuse for it being priced higher than either
It also doesn't have the online games library or infrastructure to make paid online worth it and their ideas for it already seem terrible.
It was postponed to being shown in 2017 so they could showcase games and even then the only thing of note they have ready for launch is something that they've been showing for years and is available on the Wii U.
I want to love this console and was ready to preorder but Nintendo has lost its mind if it thinks this is the way to go about things.
Fuck what Nintendo and their fans claim. It's a handheld, it looks like a handheld, it acts like a handheld, it plays like a handheld, it's just one that happens to connect to a TV and thus should be priced accordingly.
It's not powerful enough nor does it have the library to compete with either the Xbox or the PS4 so there's really no excuse for it being priced higher than either
It also doesn't have the online games library or infrastructure to make paid online worth it and their ideas for it already seem terrible.
It was postponed to being shown in 2017 so they could showcase games and even then the only thing of note they have ready for launch is something that they've been showing for years and is available on the Wii U.
I want to love this console and was ready to preorder but Nintendo has lost its mind if it thinks this is the way to go about things.
I thought that about the Wii U.
Calcium
Banned
EA has their own conference where they show games for the PS4/XB1. It's a different situation with the Nintendo Switch. People want to see what the games are going to look like on the Switch, see how the controllers work with the games. Nintendo has always struggled with third party support, these power point presentations didn't help that image.
SporeCrawler
Member
it has pokemon. that alone will prevent a wiiu situation
Will it though? Because I would rather just play pokemon on my 3ds.
Killer Queen
Banned
So does the 3ds which is much cheaper and has free online play.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
EA isn't asking people to buy hardware. The consequence of EA not having any software is that consumers don't have anything to buy. If they announced Burnout and it doesn't come out until 2025 then the worst problem is that people take extra therapy sessions to cope with their existential terror over the state of the world.
The consequence of a hardware manufacturer not having software is that consumers are put in a tough spot as to whether or not it's worth buying the hardware to get the games they do have. Suppose I want Mario, but I'm not going to spend $360+tax for Mario. I am taking a risk because I am uncertain as to whether I will have enough games to justify the hardware purchase. In a short term sense, whether I have enough games to buy the hardware. In the long term sense, whether I can trust the company to keep delivering.
Not even much cheaper. Much much much cheaper. A used og 3ds is like 80 dollars.
Edit: and isnt the 2ds 80 dollars at retail?
First off, GAF is representative of the enthusiast gaming audience, not a political analyst consortium. The election comment makes zero sense.
It's clear from the reaction that Nintendo has a huge upward battle to convince hardcore gamers to buy this device. The problem is that this is the exact same problem the Wii U had, and it flopped hard. So that means they need to count on the casual audience to makeup the difference, and they shot themselves in the foot with the pricing and lack of compelling launch titles.
Nintendo is not in a good spot right now.
The 3DS started at $250, had a tiny form factor perfect for handhelds, had a pretty amazing gimmick at the time (glassesless 3d) with good marketing, and it still bombed. It needed a huge price cut by $80 six months after launch to get it unstuck and rolling, which eventually did save the unit.
This is $300, huge, paid online, possibly worse battery than the 3DS's already awful battery, and 6 years later in a timeline where consumers are even more entrenched in phones and tablets.
Pokemon as a 'savior' is definitely going to have to fight uphill on this one, like up a cliff.
And when is this game coming?
Oh shit lol.
--//--
A unified ecosystem was a neat idea. A unified console isn't. I'd never take this thing outside of its dock more than once a year, tops, and yet I would have to pay for all these nonsense features like a screen, a dock, and removable controllers (and another $70 for standard controller). The launch window game selection is sad, even including the Zelda game probably held back to give people a reason to even want the console. Despite that this is only 6 weeks away, people are saying to give Nintendo and third parties the time/a chance to announce their games?
What a disaster. Nintendo hasn't learned anything and this is why people want to see them fail.
At launch it's DOA, because the software isn't there. Outside of Zelda, I just don't understand what the hell Nintendo's internal teams have been working on for the past few years.
That said, I think it's eventually going to sell a shit load, if Nintendo is smart enough to make Pokemon Stars a Switch exclusive. No 3DS release.
Nothing moves Nintendo hardware like Pokemon.
This first year is going to be fucking sad though.
That said, I think it's eventually going to sell a shit load, if Nintendo is smart enough to make Pokemon Stars a Switch exclusive. No 3DS release.
Nothing moves Nintendo hardware like Pokemon.
This first year is going to be fucking sad though.
Can you point me to where they talked about an imminent and huge Pokemon game last night?
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