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[Palette Swap]

The whole stance over Ukraine and how eastern Europe countries need their borders redefined in relation to Russia was downright scary. I was as flabbergasted as Hamon when it was said, while everybody else nodded in approval. I would love them to react to a Russian statement about the Basque Country or Corsica.

I didn't see this part but from what I'm reading, Mélenchon and Fillon very explicitly restated their pro-Russia stances. As usual, they frame it as pacifism like nice little Chamberlains.

 

[Staab]

I didn't see this part but from what I'm reading, Mélenchon and Fillon very explicitly restated their pro-Russia stances. As usual, they frame it as pacifism like nice little Chamberlains.

It isn't quite as clear cut, Mélenchon truly is a pacifist, not pro Russia, he wants to avoid conflicts at all cost, so yes, once something is done and couldn't be prevented, he'll negotiate pretty largely.

Fillion is just pro-economy and wants to start trading with Russia again, Putin or no Putin.

 

[Alx]

It isn't quite as clear cut, Mélenchon truly is a pacifist, not pro Russia, he wants to avoid conflicts at all cost, so yes, once something is done and couldn't be prevented, he'll negotiate pretty largely.

That makes the comparison with Chamberlain quite appropriate. (well, not saying that Poutine is Hitler 2, but wanting to avoid war at all costs is exactly what the UK did in 1938).

 

[Coffinhal]

The whole stance over Ukraine and how eastern Europe countries need their borders redefined in relation to Russia was downright scary. I was as flabbergasted as Hamon when it was said, while everybody else nodded in approval. I would love them to react to a Russian statement about the Basque Country or Corsica.

That's pretty stupid, these regions have nothing to do with Russian history like Crimea does.

Caricatures on these topics are everywhere with little to no understanding of the history of the different approach in geopolitics and international relations.

That makes the comparison with Chamberlain quite appropriate. (well, not saying that Poutine is Hitler 2, but wanting to avoid war at all costs is exactly what the UK did in 1938).

This is an easy comparison but as you just stated this doesn't work (even putting aside the lack of context and understanding of the complex history of pre-WW2)

Probably not. His numbers have been literally flat for a while now, while everyone else besides MLP has seen some movement. It's shockingly consistent.

What is your source ? There's no indication of date or time of the polls here.

Besides with still one month to go and the real campaign finally starting there's still time for undecided people to him. See what happened to Fillon in the primary, it started less than 2 weeks before the 1st round. If Hamon continues to drop JLM's curve might very well go above Hamon's and he could start to rise to 15+. He did well in the debate, lots of non-politized people were talking about him on twitter.

Anyway I don't believe he did this campaign to win but rather to set the agenda fo a new left, for a new generation of young (urban and educated) people and for the next election. Hamon winning with kind of the same platform was his first victory.

 

[Alx]

Woah, Fillon's case seems to get worse, as he's now suspected of providing fake documents to hide his wife's job.
http://www.lemonde.fr/affaire-penel...de-faux-et-usage-de-faux_5098534_5070021.html

"S'il continue comme ça il va finir par trouver du pétrole".

 

[whyamihere]

What is your source ? There's no indication of date or time of the polls here.

Besides with still one month to go and the real campaign finally starting there's still time for undecided people to him. See what happened to Fillon in the primary, it started less than 2 weeks before the 1st round. If Hamon continues to drop JLM's curve might very well go above Hamon's and he could start to rise to 15+. He did well in the debate, lots of non-politized people were talking about him on twitter.

Anyway I don't believe he did this campaign to win but rather to set the agenda fo a new left, for a new generation of young (urban and educated) people and for the next election. Hamon winning with kind of the same platform was his first victory.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/france-presidential-election-round-1

It's even more obvious over a longer timeframe, which I also posted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

I mean, if you want to say, there's room to grow!, k. But he really hasn't. Maybe he will, but there's no real evidence that his message has grown beyond the ~11-13% who have supported since since the outset.

JLM dropping a bit in the OpinionWay poll while Hammon is up a bit.

http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1

Completely stagnant in Ifop as Hammon drops

http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_21-03-2017.pdf

There is zero evidence that JLM is gaining.

 

[Palette Swap]

Woah, Fillon's case seems to get worse, as he's now suspected of providing fake documents to hide his wife's job.
http://www.lemonde.fr/affaire-penel...de-faux-et-usage-de-faux_5098534_5070021.html

"S'il continue comme ça il va finir par trouver du pétrole".

I wonder how Le Roux's case will make Fillon's look, in the sense that Le Roux's is embarrassingly immoral, but at least they got rid of him quickly and aren't crying about the media or our justice system.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

As usual with those kind of debates each fans/party will say his/her candidate won.
- I understand why Macron is the winner for BFMTV. He had the most to lose and was able to dodge and neutralize attacks from Hamon/Fillon/Lepen (with the Athena exclamation with Hamon/Melenchon on her for burkini and such). Also, the fact that he was able to praise each candidate at least once comforts his fanbase that he's left of the right, right of the left. He wasnt magnificient but I expected much worse.
- Melenchon was clearly the most charismatic, he was just dominating the room during speech on immigration, education and such. He might have preyed on Hamon fanbase but I cant see any other voters saying "man I'm voting for Melenchon" after this debate.
- I thought Lepen was very bad. As much as I dislike her, she is usually in control and taking possession of the debate. Here, she was trapped several times, lost control with Macron (on burkini and europe) or Fillon. More importantly, she was just screaming and shouting by the end which is bad because she tried to look like a real human being for the past few months.

Lmao

 

[G.O.O.]

Someone found the actual graph from earlier apparently.
Hmm, don't know what I'll trust more :

or

(Source : https://data.oecd.org/chart/4LMf)

I don't know if you guys are on twitter but showing a graph with no context and no argument to back it is exactly how the FN's cyber army operates most of the time. It's quite funny to see MLP doing the very same thing on TV.

 

[Palette Swap]

According to Le Canard, Fillon was paid $50,000 to introduce a Lebanese businessman to Putin.
An honest and serious family man with untainted foreign policy views.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-pres...selon-le-canard-enchaine_5098571_4854003.html

 

[Coffinhal]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/france-presidential-election-round-1

It's even more obvious over a longer timeframe, which I also posted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

I mean, if you want to say, there's room to grow!, k. But he really hasn't. Maybe he will, but there's no real evidence that his message has grown beyond the ~11-13% who have supported since since the outset.

JLM dropping a bit in the OpinionWay poll while Hammon is up a bit.

http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1

Completely stagnant in Ifop as Hammon drops

http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_21-03-2017.pdf

There is zero evidence that JLM is gaining.

I'm not saying that "JLM is gaining" so please don't put fake words into my mouth.

Also changes in % within the margin of error are insignificant statistically. These rolling polls are not worth analysing. Btw the only good poll with a good sample is the one with Le Monde/Ifop/Cevipof, released every two weeks IIRC.

 

[Funky Papa]

According to Le Canard, Fillon was paid $50,000 to introduce a Lebanese businessman to Putin.
An honest and serious family man with untainted foreign policy views.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-pres...selon-le-canard-enchaine_5098571_4854003.html

💀

 

[Sinsem]

I wonder how Le Roux's case will make Fillon's look, in the sense that Le Roux's is embarrassingly immoral, but at least they got rid of him quickly and aren't crying about the media or our justice system.

The fact taht he resigned so quickly won't help Fillon's case. The PS handled that way better than Les Republicains and no one will ever talk about that again. It's just less excuses available for Fillon now.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

 

[Ac30]

I don't know if you guys are on twitter but showing a graph with no context and no argument to back it is exactly how the FN's cyber army operates most of the time. It's quite funny to see MLP doing the very same thing on TV.

Hey, it worked for the Donald.

Woah, Fillon's case seems to get worse, as he's now suspected of providing fake documents to hide his wife's job.
http://www.lemonde.fr/affaire-penel...de-faux-et-usage-de-faux_5098534_5070021.html

"S'il continue comme ça il va finir par trouver du pétrole".

LOL

According to Le Canard, Fillon was paid $50,000 to introduce a Lebanese businessman to Putin.
An honest and serious family man with untainted foreign policy views.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-pres...selon-le-canard-enchaine_5098571_4854003.html

LMAO

About sums up his campaign

 

[G.O.O.]

The fact taht he resigned so quickly won't help Fillon's case. The PS handled that way better than Les Republicains and no one will ever talk about that again. It's just less excuses available for Fillon now.

I would agree with you but then I saw this

explain this shit

 

[Khaz]

That's pretty stupid, these regions have nothing to do with Russian history like Crimea does.

Caricatures on these topics are everywhere with little to no understanding of the history of the different approach in geopolitics and international relations.

It doesn't matter, it's not up to presidential candidates to declare that another sovereign country should have their border redefined in favour of their powerful neighbour. It's simply irresponsible.

 

[mo60]

I wonder if Melenchon will finish in third in the first round eventually because of the scandals that keep on plauging fillon.

 

[whyamihere]

I'm not saying that "JLM is gaining" so please don't put fake words into my mouth.

Also changes in % within the margin of error are insignificant statistically. These rolling polls are not worth analysing. Btw the only good poll with a good sample is the one with Le Monde/Ifop/Cevipof, released every two weeks IIRC.

You said "Besides with still one month to go and the real campaign finally starting there's still time for undecided people to him." I believe those are your exact words.

But there's absolutely zero evidence that he's gained thus far in any poll! Or in any aggregate, which are more important than any specific poll (again that you seem ready to dismiss?). He's been completely stagnant thus far. There's no evidence anything he's done this far to change his standing in the race.

Maybe he'll gain. I'm not a psychic. But nothing JLM has done thus far has worked. I don't really expect anything to change. Maybe JLM gets 4th by virtue of Hamon's slow trajectory downward in most aggregates. But that doesn't mean that JLM's numbers are going up. It seems that most of Hammon's % goes to Macron.

 

[Carn82]

Fillon 'got $50k to fix meeting between Putin and Lebanese billionaire'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ladimir-putin-lebanese-billionaire-allegation

Now, these are still allegations; but how credible is this?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The fact Hamon and Melenchon are both continuing to run when there's a hair's breadth between large parts of their platforms is still incredibly annoying.

 

[Alx]

Is it illegal anyway ? His consulting activities are known, so is his friendship with Poutine. It may not be a good image for him, but doing some networking can be a professional activity I suppose.

 

[dosh]

Is it illegal anyway ? His consulting activities are known, so is his friendship with Poutine. It may not be a good image for him, but doing some networking can be a professional activity I suppose.

It's not illegal in the sense that his consulting firm was conveniently created between his Matignon and Assemblée Nationale gigs, but if this doesn't sceam influence peddling and conflict of interests I don't know what does.

Same goes with the suits: it's not illegal, but when it turns out that the guy who offered them to Fillon was Roger Bourgi, well...

 

[Sinsem]

Now, these are still allegations; but how credible is this?

It is, Le Canard Enchainé has some really good journalists, I don't remember them not being careful with revelations like that.

Is it illegal anyway ? His consulting activities are known, so is his friendship with Poutine. It may not be a good image for him, but doing some networking can be a professional activity I suppose.

Yeah, nothing illegal, but this is killing his image even more. It's about morality now.

 

[Palette Swap]

Yeah, it's worth looking into at the very least.
Beyond the legality of it all, it's a terrible look when it looks like you went out of your way to set up your consultancy days before your mandate to bypass transparency rules.

Nevermind the blatant dishonesty when back in January he said none of his clients were Russian businesses or the Russian government.

 

[G.O.O.]

The fact Hamon and Melenchon are both continuing to run when there's a hair's breadth between large parts of their platforms is still incredibly annoying.

An alliance would only make sense on the paper. A lot of JLM voters hate the PS and a lot of Hamon voters think JLM is crazy (especially on Europe and international policies). That kind of thing would fly with disciplined right-wing voters but leftists are just too... principled, I guess ?

Plus they need to embody their party's leadership after the defeat

 

[Slaythe]

Since Hamon and JLM both agree with their "power to the people" thing, I don't see why they just don't join forces, and then organize referendums about the parts that they don't agree upon.

Instead we have to watch the scam artist Macron win it all.

It's maddening.

I won't even comment on Fillon and Lepen at this point.

 

[Souldriver]

Since Hamon and JLM both agree with their "power to the people" thing, I don't see why they just don't join forces, and then organize referendums about the parts that they don't agree upon.

Instead we have to watch the scam artist Macron win it all.

It's maddening.

I won't even comment on Fillon and Lepen at this point.

Why is Macron a scam artist?

It's an honest question, since I don't know a lot about him. I'm inclined to root for him since he's a viable centrist candidate against Le Pen, and he's pro EU. I only heard of the criticism that he's a bit light on actual policy stances.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

An alliance would only make sense on the paper. A lot of JLM voters hate the PS and a lot of Hamon voters think JLM is crazy (especially on Europe and international policies). That kind of thing would fly with disciplined right-wing voters but leftists are just too... principled, I guess ?

Plus they need to embody their party's leadership after the defeat

I'm not even saying an explicit alliance, just that as long as both are in the race, neither can win, and each would prefer the other to win rather than any other candidate. Just frustrating. I understand why neither does - PS can't just admit it can't even properly contest a presidential election and Macron can't concede any credit to the PS because of what might come after Hamon - but it still sticks in the craw.

Another casualty of the ridiculous two round system. Thanks, de Gaulle.

 

[EmiPrime]

Since Hamon and JLM both agree with their "power to the people" thing, I don't see why they just don't join forces, and then organize referendums about the parts that they don't agree upon.

Instead we have to watch the scam artist Macron win it all.

It's maddening.

I won't even comment on Fillon and Lepen at this point.

What are you on about?

They are diametrically opposed on foreign policy, NATO, EU membership, protectionism and defence spending; these are irreconcilable differences. On many key topics Melenchon has more in common with the FN than he does with Hamon and is too much of a narcissist to give way to Hamon anyway.

 

[G.O.O.]

Since Hamon and JLM both agree with their "power to the people" thing, I don't see why they just don't join forces, and then organize referendums about the parts that they don't agree upon.

We all know what they mean when they say power to the people even JLM's communist allies tried to prevent him from running

Why is Macron a scam artist?

It's an honest question, since I don't know a lot about him. I'm inclined to root for him since he's a viable centrist candidate against Le Pen, and he's pro EU. I only heard of the criticism that he's a bit light on actual policy stances.

From day 1 critics have said that he was all style and no substance, a Hollande bis, that he has no program, that he's a media bubble etc.

However his program is certainly more technocratic than it is political. I think that's not a bad thing but I understand some might want something else.

 

[Sinsem]

On many key topics Melenchon has more in common with the FN than he does with Hamon and is too much of a narcissist to give way to Hamon anyway.

Oh, please, stop with that argument. The FN uses part of the historical left programm, not the other way around. With that kind of thinking, you could say that 1981 Mitterand is close to Marine Le Pen.

Also, it's not about Hamon, or narcissism. It's about the PS. It's Hollande who waited too long before saying he wasn't running again, it's the surprise victory of Hamon during the primary while half of the party is leaving for Macron to keep with Hollande politics, which is exaclty what left voters don't want.
Yes, it's a mess, but it's not about anyone ego.
Melenchon is polling about the same as in 2012, meaning his base is still here. The PS score went from 29% to 12 for Hamon, because a huge chunk of it went for Macron, who also snatched most of the centrists and some of the right.

 

[Chibrou]

Yeah at this point, I don't need someone who makes me dream or hope of "lendemain qui chantent" but just someone moderate enough. I'll take bland over corrupted/xenophobic/hypocrite/nazis in girl scout uniform

 

[Ghostandgoblin]

An interesting website for the french speaking (well... reading) gaffers :
https://www.jevote.info/
Answer questions about the different programs without knowing who's behind it to know who you're more supposed to vote for.

It is intellectually very interesting to only judge by the ideas (even if you know some of the candidates propositions or if some are blatantly far rightish). I had some surprises, but nothing major in my case.

 

[mo60]

Since Hamon and JLM both agree with their "power to the people" thing, I don't see why they just don't join forces, and then organize referendums about the parts that they don't agree upon.

Instead we have to watch the scam artist Macron win it all.

It's maddening.

I won't even comment on Fillon and Lepen at this point.

Even if they joined forces they would not be beating Macron in the polls. Some of their supporters will be pissed off at them that they joined forces and as a result whoever is left between the two will probably get a big polling boost but it won't be enough to overtake Macron.

 

[Palette Swap]

An interesting website for the french speaking (well... reading) gaffers :
https://www.jevote.info/
Answer questions about the different programs without knowing who's behind it to know who you're more supposed to vote for.

It is intellectually very interesting to only judge by the ideas (even if you know some of the candidates propositions or if some are blatantly far rightish). I had some surprises, but nothing major in my case.

I had no surprise, honestly. Including the fact that I'm only at 40 with my top candidate, with only one other being in the positive.
What's interesting with these for me (I took a couple of others) is how I'd have spontaneously voted Juppé while right now, Fillon is always second to last.

 

[Ghostandgoblin]

I had no surprise, honestly.

Well for me it was more on some details of the programs that I wasn't aware of, like Hamon wanting to expand the military budget. But yeah, in the end it wasn't a reality changer

 

[DiipuSurotu]

An interesting website for the french speaking (well... reading) gaffers :
https://www.jevote.info/
Answer questions about the different programs without knowing who's behind it to know who you're more supposed to vote for.

It is intellectually very interesting to only judge by the ideas (even if you know some of the candidates propositions or if some are blatantly far rightish). I had some surprises, but nothing major in my case.

I'll still vote Macron due to "vote utile", lol

 

[ebil]

I'll still vote Macron due to "vote utile", lol

I like how you basically agree with nobody, lol.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

I like how you basically agree with nobody, lol.

I actually skipped a lot of questions ("ne se prononce pas") as I don't think I'm knowledgeable enough to have a strong opinion and stance on many of the topics. I gave answers mostly against the more obvious radical/extreme ideas.

 

[mo60]

People within fillon's camapign may have been sending him SMS's during the recent presidential debate.

http://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/Penda...conseille-en-direct-par-SMS-855883#xtor=CS1-4

It would be insane if this ended up being true.

 

[BaronLundi]

An interesting website for the french speaking (well... reading) gaffers :
https://www.jevote.info/
Answer questions about the different programs without knowing who's behind it to know who you're more supposed to vote for.

It is intellectually very interesting to only judge by the ideas (even if you know some of the candidates propositions or if some are blatantly far rightish). I had some surprises, but nothing major in my case.

I'd say this works reasonably well.

 

[Alx]

So in the latest polls Macron ties with Le Pen, or is sometimes ahead. It will be nice if it reflects in the first round results ; even if we can reasonably hope she won't be elected in the end, it's still a bad message to see her reach first position.
Mélenchon is getting ahead of Hamon, too.

 

[Palette Swap]

Fillon is tripling down on the conspiracy claims.
The guy is a complete lunatic.

http://www.lemonde.fr/affaire-penel...-fillon-face-a-l-enquete_5099452_5070021.html

 

[G.O.O.]

An interesting website for the french speaking (well... reading) gaffers :
https://www.jevote.info/
Answer questions about the different programs without knowing who's behind it to know who you're more supposed to vote for.

It is intellectually very interesting to only judge by the ideas (even if you know some of the candidates propositions or if some are blatantly far rightish). I had some surprises, but nothing major in my case.

there's also this one

https://www.crowdpac.fr/alter-ego-politique

got it pretty close to Macron, like 90% or something. However I wonder if people who take these tests while knowing who they'll vote for often land far from their candidate. I only remember someone from 2007 who was a sarkozist and ended up being closer to Royal

 

[whyamihere]

Crazy that Fillon isn't really dropping. He's just flat. Macron continues to steal from Hammon.

Also lol at Dupont-Aignan rising. Not what MLP needs. Sad!

Also wow, Macron's second round vote % is growing.

 

[Ac30]

Crazy that Fillon isn't really dropping. He's just flat. Macron continues to steal from Hammon.

Also lol at Dupont-Aignan rising. Not what MLP needs. Sad!

Also wow, Macron's second round vote % is growing.

Seems the debate helped, thank God.

 

[LordKano]

ICYMI, Fillon is getting completely screwed live in France 2 by a rogue women writer.

 

[Ac30]

ICYMI, Fillon is getting completely screwed live in France 2 by a rogue women writer.

What's she saying?

 

[LordKano]

What's she saying?

A lot of things, wouldn't be able to sum it up properly, but basically she was going against what they were supposed to discuss and bursted out (about all his policies) against him, in front of his fans sitting behind dim.