• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Media Create Sales: Week 39, 2017 (Sep 25 - Oct 01)

Nyoro SF

Member
Saw this late, what can we conclude about sen 3 sales, gaf?

The sales are as expected. No way that Falcom didn't see it coming, so I think it is fine. If it were any other company I would join in the bomba parade but having studied their interviews and release methodology I see a very conservative, careful company that knows how to keep their lights on while still making fun games.
 
Saw this late, what can we conclude about sen 3 sales, gaf?
Falcom will produce a Golden Mishy LE for all three Sen releases on PS4, once the first two get ports. :^)

We don't have much consensus on how bad or good the launch sales for Sen III are and what that means, but that's okay. I appreciate discussing all this in detail. That said, I can't see this release changing much about Falcom's current goals and methods. Releasing Sen IV quickly after III makes the most sense if only because they have assets to reuse and an apparently unfinished main story.

People here seem to be sure of a Steam version, has that been already announced, or is assumed given the history of the series?
Falcom's been pushing PC ports recently. One reason XSEED likely didn't get Ys VIII is because NISA promised a quicker port to PC...which has turned out poorly for them and Falcom. Since Falcom values growth for the Trails games even more than Ys, they likely want some kind of simultaneous cross-platform launch for Cold Steel III in English.
 
Nope. FE Heroes still vastly favors Awakening/Fates whenever they do seasonal alt costume characters.

edit: you could field a whole 4-person team of Lucinas (even if one is called masked Marth), but there is still only 1 Hector.

There are 3 Xanders as well.

That's against the backdrop of those seasonal alts being the only new Awakening/Fates characters period though.

Also as for this:

You need to remember it's a reamke of the black sheep in the franchise. It's not as loved as FE1 and FE3, so of course the remake will sell less.

let's revisit an old MC thread now....
250k isn't any extraordinary number. Maybe it will be closer to 200k but still DS games give an idea of what it will sell. If you expect this remake to be close to sales of 3DS main entries it's not happening.

Lol. Wrong about there being a new 3DS FE. Now wrong about FE sales next!

Nah, I don't agree with him about FE. I think the game has potencial for >300k. Better than the DS versions for sure.

Definitely. Fans don't care if about it being a remake. Most of them weren't born when this was released.

I disagree with you here Chris actually. Even if this is a remake, i don't think it is comparable with the remake number here.

The reason i feel for this is tx to several factors actually.

1. FE Heroes push will help sell this title for sure as we had seen with Nintendo software sales number
2. FE this time just come out of a huge number which is Fates unlike FE:SD which come from FE on Wii which does not seems to resonate that much with JP gaming market.
3. FE: Gaiden is known by older fans as one of the worst FE actually. And if Echoes is promoted as the remake which repaired many of the older mistakes and with much better graphics, i can see it do better.

The only problem i feel is 3DS is on its Twilight(Lol how many twilight 3DS must have lol.) So, i can't see it going to have longer legs.

350k+ for me should be quite easy to reach here.

I think that the 3DS Fire Emblem revival will have an effect on echoes vs FE11-12 on DS. I dont see 500k, but 250k seems too low as well. Maybe 300-350k?

🤔
 

kswiston

Member
That's against the backdrop of those seasonal alts being the only new Awakening/Fates characters period though.

Also as for this:



let's revisit an old MC thread now....


🤔

FE Heroes launched with 30 Fates Characters, which was close to a third of the entire roster. We'll get more when they actually flesh out the other games.

As for Echoes, we over-estimated it in Japan. There was a popularity bump in the west though.

I am curious to see how FE Switch does next year.

Edit: Also, they largely ignored the child units from both Awakening/Fates so far. We got two in the recent banner, but it was just Lucina before that. No doubt the kids will come eventually.
 

Bebpo

Banned
Have you not seen Sen 3 Rean ?


Sen III will make you ashamed of your words and deeds.

Well, I look forward to this good MC Rean to appear in the back half of Sen III, because so far 30+ hours in, Rean is the same not-really-a-character MC as Sen 1/2 where he is just nice & polite to everyone and has no opinions of his own and basically does not really exist besides still head patting. Which is a huge step down from the strong personalities of Estelle and Lloyd.

I was talking with duckroll and honestly I think Kiryu Kazuma from the Yakuza series is more of a Kiseki/Trails protagonist that Rean. Kiryu goes around doing tons of menial tasks around town like finding lost kittens and dropped wallets, he's totally nice and golden heart, but he also kicks ass has has a ton of personality. Maybe we can get a Kiryu Kazuma-ish MC for Calvard.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
That's true but that's also why I mentioned economies of scales. Cost ramp down as numbers ramp up. You do not want to get yourself stuck with tiny production orders. This is also Japan centric. There's very few games with a break even of 800k even within those that even sell 1 million. The number with break even higher than 1k is muuuuch much higher.
Fair enough. That economic scale is only for physical products though, if i understand you correctly. It doesnt tie into game developement costs in that regards, which is what i though you were talking about first. And sure, there probably arent many games that have a break even point at 1k sales, but the total amount of money that can be lost in those cases with low sales numbers expectations are also a lot lower.

But regardless, the 1 million to 100k number was just a general example, it could be anything really. Could be Youtube views to a video for example. I just consider such a drop to be much more severe and bigger despite both cases being a 90% drop.
 

Korigama

Member
Better opening week than either the PS3 or Vita versions of CS I or II individually is interesting, but selling less overall as a result of no portable version isn't much of a surprise. Not having to compromise what they did with the game as they did in the past was still worth ditching Vita to me, as it did still hold Falcom back in spite of being niche and not bleeding edge as far as tech is concerned.
Well... was playing the series on portable not PS4, so unless they bring it to the Switch it'll stay where it is.
And even then, the quality dropped since Ao anyway so I don't miss it as much as I would if it was still as good.
No one actually familiar with CS III would say this. The gameplay and the writing are easily among the best in the series, a significant improvement over the previous two games (which are by no means bad, but are more flawed in regards to the latter compared to the old games in spite of playing better).

And while Rean is definitely a better character in this one, buying CS for Rean specifically was always a case of "doing it wrong" anyway.
 

Dragonmassag77

Neo Member
Well, I look forward to this good MC Rean to appear in the back half of Sen III, because so far 30+ hours in, Rean is the same not-really-a-character MC as Sen 1/2 where he is just nice & polite to everyone and has no opinions of his own and basically does not really exist besides still head patting. Which is a huge step down from the strong personalities of Estelle and Lloyd.

I was talking with duckroll and honestly I think Kiryu Kazuma from the Yakuza series is more of a Kiseki/Trails protagonist that Rean. Kiryu goes around doing tons of menial tasks around town like finding lost kittens and dropped wallets, he's totally nice and golden heart, but he also kicks ass has has a ton of personality. Maybe we can get a Kiryu Kazuma-ish MC for Calvard.
What Chapter are you on also was just gonna say Rean looks good width Glasses
 

Waji

Member
No one actually familiar with CS III would say this. The gameplay and the writing are easily among the best in the series, a significant improvement over the previous two games (which are by no means bad, but are more flawed in regards to the latter compared to the old games in spite of playing better).
Doesn't change 1 and 2. And since that's what I'm talking about, we're good.
If the game is released on a platform I own at some point I'll think about it, same if by for some reason I get a PS4 one day, which is unlikely as my brother has one so if I really need to play a game I'd just wait for the right moment and maybe borrow it from him in the future if we're still living close enough to each others.

But I don't want to be fooled as lots of people are also saying Sen 1 and 2 are amazing.
I just don't feel the hype of the series anymore.

Sen III will make you ashamed of your words and deeds.
Ha ha. Well, he did so poorly in the first 2 I don't think I could change my mind that easily.
One day maybe I'll play the game. For now I'll just fondly remember the 5 first titles.
 
Rean sucks.

I think it's good probably width in Falcom expectation

The sales are as expected. No way that Falcom didn't see it coming, so I think it is fine. If it were any other company I would join in the bomba parade but having studied their interviews and release methodology I see a very conservative, careful company that knows how to keep their lights on while still making fun games.

Falcom will produce a Golden Mishy LE for all three Sen releases on PS4, once the first two get ports. :^)

We don't have much consensus on how bad or good the launch sales for Sen III are and what that means, but that's okay. I appreciate discussing all this in detail. That said, I can't see this release changing much about Falcom's current goals and methods. Releasing Sen IV quickly after III makes the most sense if only because they have assets to reuse and an apparently unfinished main story.

Not so great, not so bad. Middle ground. If it manages to sell 150k in the end with digital, it will be a good result.

I get the picture, thanks gaf.
 

Yagami_Sama

Member
Another good week for Switch and for Splatoon 2.

Fire Emblem Warriors did alright, I expected it to sell a little more, but I think is okay maybe the Switch version will have some legs.
 

PK Gaming

Member
Well, I look forward to this good MC Rean to appear in the back half of Sen III, because so far 30+ hours in, Rean is the same not-really-a-character MC as Sen 1/2 where he is just nice & polite to everyone and has no opinions of his own and basically does not really exist besides still head patting. Which is a huge step down from the strong personalities of Estelle and Lloyd.

Maybe i'd actually buy this if you weren't so obviously biased. Impressions from players all over and even Shouta's translated streams make it pretty clear that Rean is a noticeably different (read: better) character in Sen III, so I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion that he's the same or that he lacks a character. I mean, even his expression alone makes it clear that he's not the same person from CS1/2 but sure, nothing's changed.

I was talking with duckroll and honestly I think Kiryu Kazuma from the Yakuza series is more of a Kiseki/Trails protagonist that Rean. Kiryu goes around doing tons of menial tasks around town like finding lost kittens and dropped wallets, he's totally nice and golden heart, but he also kicks ass has has a ton of personality. Maybe we can get a Kiryu Kazuma-ish MC for Calvard.

No I'm pretty sure Falcom's beyond hope and we'll get yet another shitty LN protagonist.
 

Korigama

Member
Doesn't change 1 and 2. And since that's what I'm talking about, we're good.
If the game is released on a platform I own at some point I'll think about it, same if by for some reason I get a PS4 one day, which is unlikely as my brother has one so if I really need to play a game I'd just wait for the right moment and maybe borrow it from him in the future if we're still living close enough to each others.

But I don't want to be fooled as lots of people are also saying Sen 1 and 2 are amazing.
I just don't feel the hype of the series anymore.
A rather flippant response. Either way, at least you admit to not actually caring enough to play it, as the developer moving on and making something for a newer platform wouldn't make any difference to you if you did (regardless of what franchise it was).
 

Bebpo

Banned
What Chapter are you on also was just gonna say Rean looks good width Glasses

At the back half of Chapter 2 right now in
Crossbell, and pretty disappointed with how Crossbell is being handled coming from Zero/Ao with parts of the city missing and most of the characters/npcs missing and the music being much much worse.
.

No one actually familiar with CS III would say this. The gameplay and the writing are easily among the best in the series, a significant improvement over the previous two games (which are by no means bad, but are more flawed in regards to the latter compared to the old games in spite of playing better).

And while Rean is definitely a better character in this one, buying CS for Rean specifically was always a case of "doing it wrong" anyway.

Eh, I disagree. I don't even think it's better than Sen 2 yet. Only better than Sen 1 so far. It's just so slow paced like Sen 1 again, maybe even slower than Sen 1. It's normal for things to get exciting at the end of one chapter only to slow down again for the start of the next chapter, but considering it's like 5-8 hours of incredibly slow school days -> 8-10 hours of slow but gradually getting more exciting adventures -> 2-3 hours of exciting chapter ending story -> back to 5-8 hours of incredibly slow school days -> repeat... the pacing is still awful like Sen 1.

If they cut out the 5-8 hours of school sim and it was just 8-10 hours of slow->exciting adventuring -> 2-3 hours of exciting chapter finale, repeat, it'd be great and that's exactly what past games in the series were. The addition of 5-8 hours of school sim at the start of every chapter in Sen 1 & 3 is really really bad. I also don't find the school characters are interesting in this one as Sen 1 so far, but that might change by the end as they get developed more. Also the school dungeon is a hell of a lot less interesting in this one since there's no lore/mystery attached and it's literally just a training dungeon.

For me Sen 2 was better just on principle of not having the school sim & school dungeon every chapter. I'm looking forward to Sen 4 not having those as well.
 

kswiston

Member
Echoes drop at west with similar with Japan.

But Awakening/Fates had much smaller bumps in Japan.

How did Echoes compare to Shadow Dragon in the US?

Pretty sure Shadow Dragon ended up around 250k LTD in the US. Someone gave us NPD numbers for the entire pre-awakening series once, but it has been many years. I can't remember specific numbers, only relative rankings.

Edit: I found a source for shadow dragon. My memory wasn't off. http://nintendoeverything.com/febru...00-combined-best-first-month-for-fire-emblem/
 

Waji

Member
A rather flippant response. Either way, at least you admit to not actually caring enough to play it, as the developer moving on and making something for a newer platform wouldn't make any difference to you if you did (regardless of what franchise it was).
That's actually the opposite. I want them to do something new and not continue with the same recipe they have been using for the last 4 games (not including Sen 3 since I didn't play it).
But my point of view on their recent games is a little complicated for me to explain completely, especially in English.
So it's easier to just say I loved it until Ao no Kiseki.
 
Hoesntly. FEW did alright.

On another topic, this reminds me that the Echoes soundtrack is releasing soon. Much more excited for that.
 

Korigama

Member
That's actually the opposite. I want them to do something new and not continue with the same recipe they have been using for the last 4 games (not including Sen 3 since I didn't play it).
I was referring to the tone you took in answering me (the "and since that's what we're talking about, we're good" bit wasn't exactly necessary in making your point, and came across as needlessly passive-aggressive).
 

Busaiku

Member
While they were relatively minor, I don't understand why a growth in Vita sales and a decline in PS3 sales signaled to Falcom that a PS4 exclusive was the way to go.

It was 3 years ago, so they likely correctly assumed a decline in Vita sales, but to give it up entirely is just baffling.
 

Thoraxes

Member
Well, I look forward to this good MC Rean to appear in the back half of Sen III, because so far 30+ hours in, Rean is the same not-really-a-character MC as Sen 1/2 where he is just nice & polite to everyone and has no opinions of his own and basically does not really exist besides still head patting. Which is a huge step down from the strong personalities of Estelle and Lloyd.
I'm like 20-25 hours in now, and I couldn't disagree more.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
While they were relatively minor, I don't understand why a growth in Vita sales and a decline in PS3 sales signaled to Falcom that a PS4 exclusive was the way to go.

It was 3 years ago, so they likely correctly assumed a decline in Vita sales, but to give it up entirely is just baffling.

Long term thinking. They believed enough of the user base had either moved over or that they could move some of the rest over and pick up the remaining outside japan. It's a Bold Strategy, let's see if it works out for them.
 
It was 3 years ago, so they likely correctly assumed a decline in Vita sales, but to give it up entirely is just baffling.
As recently as Ys VIII's release, Falcom's had to cut finished content from their games because either the Vita couldn't handle something without notable technical problems or the game size would exceed physical cart storage...Vita games don't sell much in Japan via digital. PS4 obviously has few if any technical restrictions which adversely affect the quality of their games, and they decided now was the best time to risk ditching a handheld platform to focus on PS4 while enjoying support and distribution help from Sony. I personally want Falcom to transition to Switch and ideally find a way to get simultaneous launches working on PS4 and Switch, but they're usually slow to transition between consoles.

I wonder if Vita fans would have been fine playing a clearly downgraded version of Sen III, also. Falcom's in a hard place all the time because of their development ambition paired with small development capacity.
 

Aters

Member
Well, I look forward to this good MC Rean to appear in the back half of Sen III, because so far 30+ hours in, Rean is the same not-really-a-character MC as Sen 1/2 where he is just nice & polite to everyone and has no opinions of his own and basically does not really exist besides still head patting. Which is a huge step down from the strong personalities of Estelle and Lloyd.

Last I heard, Rean will REALLY become interesting in CS4.
 

Bebpo

Banned
I'm like 20-25 hours in now, and I couldn't disagree more.

Weird. Well, agree to disagree then. All I see his him following orders and doing what he's told and not having a personality besides looking sad and not doing anything about it besides some head patting. Same as I&II Rean for me so far.

Last I heard, Rean will REALLY become interesting in CS4.

Well, just from an overall plot perspective, he has to get really interesting because of the things he will have to do. I'm sure he's gonna do some stuff later on in Sen 3, just in the first half so far imo he's not there yet so it's same old Rean, maybe a little less naive and dumb.
 

Waji

Member
I was referring to the tone you took in answering me (the "and since that's what we're talking about, we're good" bit wasn't exactly necessary in making your point, and came across as needlessly passive-aggressive).
Wow... you're getting too far. I'm not an English native speaker so it may just seem different from what I was trying to say which was just that I wasn't including Sen 3 in most of my explanation.

I'm sorry if I say things that seem offensive even though I actually don't see it at all ah ah.
 

Bebpo

Banned
We're going spoiler territory, have mercy of the fellow english-only fans >.>

Yeah, sorry for moving the discussion in this direction. I won't post any more about the game content of Sen 3 in here. Just sales talk :)
 

Korigama

Member
Wow... you're getting too far. I'm not an English native speaker so it may just seem different from what I was trying to say which was just that I wasn't including Sen 3 in most of my explanation.

I'm sorry if I say things that seem offensive even though I actually don't see it at all ah ah.
Very well, then. Sorry for the misunderstanding on my part (I wasn't aware that you weren't a native speaker).
 

Vamphuntr

Member
So they've lost about 60k sales from being PS4 only for Sen III. Ouch. Incoming Vita downgraded port and Switch port. And frankly part I and II weren't very good compared to the previous entries and they are now stretching to a 4th part for this arc so guess they are getting what they deserve.
 
Sales of Echoes in Japan make me sad as it’s my favorite FE game on the 3DS, but I don’t think much more should’ve been expected from it. It’s a remake of a notoriously unpopular game in the series that released very late in the life of the 3DS where not much software is finding a lot of success. It did alright.

Same with FEW basically. Musou games are on the decline and the FE IP is less popular than the Zelda IP worldwide, so it’s expected that it would sell less than HW. I thought being on the Switch rather than the Wii U would’ve benefited it, and maybe it will in the long run, but then again I think the roster of HW was more exciting than the roster for this game.

I don’t think the sales of these games have any bearing on how FE Switch will do. I expect that game to return to Awakening/Fates numbers in Japan, and likely more worldwide.
 
So they've lost about 60k sales from being PS4 only for Sen III. Ouch. Incoming Vita downgraded port and Switch port. And frankly part I and II weren't very good compared to the previous entries and they are now stretching to a 4th part for this arc so guess they are getting what they deserve.
Don't be so sure. Falcom's not going to clear time out of their pipeline to work on ports themselves, not if they want to get Sen IV out to regain momentum. Best case, they'll outsource a Switch port and get the first two games onto PS4 for new players somehow. Maybe a downgraded Vita port can happen, but it's been 3 years and that market's contracted in Japan (even if it's still reliable for low-end sales). Falcom only chose PS4-only after viewing all their sales data and doing some kind of analysis and deliberation on what happens next.

Falcom deserves to expand already, more than anything. I'm sure they can keep their culture and development style while adding a lot of new recruits and veterans.
 

Dragonmassag77

Neo Member
Really? I’m surprised they didn’t outsource them and have Kadokawa put out Evo full voice editions over the last year in that case.

Doesn’t make a lot of sense releasing them after 3...
Probbly for the west most likely for people who only have Ps4 and the Sen 3 comes out but you need to play the first 2 to play that but that me assuming
 

Waji

Member
So how much do you think Nintendo can raise the stock for the biggest weeks ? more than 200k ?

Very well, then. Sorry for the misunderstanding on my part (I wasn't aware that you weren't a native speaker).
No problem, writing is never accurate enough so it's perfectly understandable.
I guess at least I may not be so bad with English that it's too obvious lol...
 

PK Gaming

Member
So they've lost about 60k sales from being PS4 only for Sen III. Ouch. Incoming Vita downgraded port and Switch port. And frankly part I and II weren't very good compared to the previous entries and they are now stretching to a 4th part for this arc so guess they are getting what they deserve.

CS2 was "bad" so they deserve to suffer for it?

That's your take?
 
Top Bottom