Yeah right, a 6tflop XB1X when a 4.2 tlop ps4pro has been availible for more than a year by the time of launch? they should not bother.
Or maybe, you can't talk about technology and financial realities without taking some bitter pills
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Speculation: Nextgen to be 30TFLOPs+?
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
Yeah right, a 6tflop XB1X when a 4.2 tlop ps4pro has been availible for more than a year by the time of launch? they should not bother.
Or maybe, you can't talk about technology and financial realities without taking some bitter pills
That's about as realistic as OP's predictions.
I was pretty pessimistic there. I think things seemed pretty grim for high end console hardware at the time. 8GB was a nice surprise. Also I said PCs would be rocking 32GB RAM but I only have 16 :/
Ok either way the next gen of consoles will have at least 64GB of RAM.
See:
Don't ignore the reality of our present day. Things are different this time around.
Even moreso when things have been slowing down very noticeably over the past several years. Don't expect things to continue at the same pace they have been in the past.
Welfare
Member
I'm thinking PS5 launches in 2020 with ~12F and 24GB of RAM. Basically double the Xbox One X.
PS5 is going to be strong enough to play next gen games at 4K non checkerboard, but not so powerful as to raise the price above $399, or the loss per unit being ridiculously small.
Xbox Two should be +15TF if it's a 2021 release.
PS5 is going to be strong enough to play next gen games at 4K non checkerboard, but not so powerful as to raise the price above $399, or the loss per unit being ridiculously small.
Xbox Two should be +15TF if it's a 2021 release.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
I said it ages ago but 24GB is probably a good bet for next gen with 32GB depending on the pricing situation. More RAM is always great though as long as it doesn't come at too much of a cost that it leads to sacrificing performance elsewhere.
Last gen was the longest of all for a host of reasons, the huge increase in development budgets from the jump to HD might've played a role as well but it had more to do with how much money Sony and Microsoft sunk into their seventh gen consoles and trying to recoup as much of that as possible and coming out with successor hardware that could provide a large enough boost that wouldn't require them to repeat what they did with the PS3 and XB360. Last gen lasting as long as it did actually hurt developers/publishers.
Considering the PS5 is likely to be fully backwards compatible with the PS4 to the point where many games could also be released in a single SKU as playable on either (despite the architectural differences that will be there especially with CPUs) in a better utilized version of what's done with the PS4/Pro there's not nearly as much holding Sony back from bringing out a PS5. The barrier in swiching over production and building everything for new hardware is a much lesser issue than it's probably ever been.
Last gen was the longest of all for a host of reasons, the huge increase in development budgets from the jump to HD might've played a role as well but it had more to do with how much money Sony and Microsoft sunk into their seventh gen consoles and trying to recoup as much of that as possible and coming out with successor hardware that could provide a large enough boost that wouldn't require them to repeat what they did with the PS3 and XB360. Last gen lasting as long as it did actually hurt developers/publishers.
Darkstorne
Member
Yep, and I think with a Zen CPU we shouldn't be getting worried that the GPU TF count isn't insane. We're getting a colossal boost to the CPU next gen with at least 16GB of RAM (probably 24+), and with the focus on open world gameplay we've been seeing this gen, that's going to lead to some pretty awesome results when devs are coding to exact hardware specs.
Negotiator
Member
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Interesting....So my 12nm guess could work (Picasso) for a 2019 PS5?
Edit: 7nm could then be used when mature/cheaper for PS5 Pro if they wish or just a standard cost reduction if they don't.
If it's 12nm then I don't have high hopes for the GPU specs. The Pro is 16nm and I really think that 7nm is necessary for the expected jump. CPU would be good though.
dr_rus
Member
12nm is essentially the same thing as 14nm at GloFo, just an update of the current process. Future consoles won't use that one as it's somewhat already being used in both Neo and Scorpio.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
But then if both TSMC and GF are using a lot of resources on 12nm over the next year+ for refreshes of bigger non-mobile chips then that means 7nm is likely to be that much further down the line to be both mature and cheap enough for a console.
Unless PS5 is now 2021 in which case it would be a generation even longer than the last, which was said to go on far too long.
I just can't believe we have all these hints of PS5 from various sources plus the threads here if isn't launching for 4 years. Makes no sense to me.
Negotiator
Member
12nm just won't cut it.
They should delay next-gen for as long as it takes, even if it means a 2020-2021 release. Nobody is in a hurry, not even devs themselves.
They should delay next-gen for as long as it takes, even if it means a 2020-2021 release. Nobody is in a hurry, not even devs themselves.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Seems to be good enough for Nvidia's next gen monster GPUs and now AMD's GPU refreshes. Why wouldn't it be good enough for the next consoles?
Like I said before why is PS5 being discussed/rumoured/hinted at if 2020/21 is the most likely launch timing? I honestly don't think Matt would be commenting has he has if PS5 is that far out?
Hispanic! At the Disco
Member
30TFlops, on Jaguar.
AquaWateria
Member
They better price it right because no one is gonna buy a $700 console.
eso76
Member
Eh, but XB1X and PS4Pro are a mid gen refresh only good for running the same games as last gen with better IQ, not what i'd call next gen.
10TF.. don't bother or wait until the tech is cheap enough to give us a proper upgrade.
Ps4pro and XB1X really messed with the natural progression of consoles generations, i say wait 5/6 more years (and maybe drop support for vanilla ps4 and xbo at some point).
It's "good enough" for Nvidia and AMD's desktop GPUs, because they have no choice but to release new cards on a regular basis. They also have the luxury of being in a market where pricing and power draw targets are through the roof, relative to the console maker's tight budgets.
The consoles on the other hand, are one shot deals, where Sony and Microsoft can't release a better console every year.
The longer they wait, the more they can pack in at reasonable prices.
I HOPE they wait until 2020/2021.
PS5 is not the same as Pro though.....just the ability to make exclusive games makes the impact of a machine at that level on a completely different scale than a Pro or a XB1X, even given the relative closeness of components.
No its not that. What you are talking about is an upgrade not a generational leap. And thats what every generation up until now was. We did not expect the pro to be 10Tf ... honestly I didnt even expect for the one x to be even 6TF.. because it was upgrade .. not next gen.. Again Im coming at it from a Next Gen. Hope this helps you not force your reality on us. Even if your right. I wont accept this being Next Gen. At 10TF. So its not about not accepting the reality that it will be 10TF. Get it now?
THE:MILKMAN
Member
The most interesting aspect for me is that Shinobi is the thread starter and says "Lol, good one Crytek XD"
Four minutes later....
"They might be thinking way down the line. For example, if Sony and MS's next console hit in 2013, they'll last maybe up until 2019-2020.
Who knows what kind of memory games that far down will take..."
Fastest turnaround ever! Did an insider/dev shoot him a PM!?
Spladam
Member
This is reasonable and highly likely. It's not going to be over 20TFLOPS, that's for sure, and if I HAD to guess, I'd say 12TFLOP performance in the PS5.
Seriously though, what are you thinking OP?
dr_rus
Member
Which is what I've been telling you all for some time - the next generation will most likely be limited by the readiness of a new production process. Currently this is expected to be 7nm (both at GloFo and TSMC) which will probably be able to produce a console sized APU some time in 2019, likely closer to its end. But there is no guarantee that this will pan out as expected since process updates have become highly unreliable, with even Intel struggling to go below 14nm for almost two years now.
Basically, no one should expect a new gen of consoles before the end of 2019 and it's highly possible that we're looking at 2020 even.
And as for hints of PS5 - I haven't seen yet even a single hint of PS5 being anything but a long term plan for now. Devs hiring people to work on "next gen games" is not an indication of anything since we hardly know when these games are planned to launch or what they even mean by "next gen".
shameless report:
quite some threads to post this, but I ended up with this one.
first Raven Ridge benchmarks (ryzen mobile APU), Mandolin platform.
http://www.guru3d.com/news-story/geekbench-results-for-raven-ridge-2500u.html
- Seems to be the 'entry-level' Raven Ridge APU
- 2ghz base clock
- singlecore/multicore: 3561/9421
https://liliputing.com/2017/09/amd-ryzen-5-2500u-benchmarks-hint-ryzen-coming-laptops-soon.html
And found this on Reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Amd/commen...ce_amd_ryzen_5_2500u/?st=j832ciem&sh=1e6685e3
My take: if Raven Ridge will be the base-platform for the PS5 / Nextbox (which sounds plausible) it will be major leap CPU wise compared to the current Jaguar based chips.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
Like already said, they're using it because they don't have any other choice and while them there's plenty of room for improvement considering their 14/16nm cards are pretty much just die shrinks of the previous generation's architecture, well in AMD's case the same architecture they've been tweaking for over five years and NVIDIA's Pascal being a shrunk down version of Maxwell. But with the TDP and price points (and silicon size along with it) Sony and MS are going to be looking to hit, they need a major die shrink to provide something more than a a relatively small (for hardware that's going to last five or so years) performance boost of refined processes and architectural improvements. Neither MS or Sony is going to do much better than what Microsoft as with the 6TF XBO X and its already large and more expensive APU and that would be their only option, go bigger and go more expensive on 14nm and no one should want that.
jim2point0
Banned
This was a good laugh. Thanks, OP =)
Shin
Banned
TSMC already building 3nm Fab: http://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?action=detail&language=E&newsid=THWQGOHITH
According to the same site TSMC said they want to start producing 5nm in 2019 so yeah.
According to the same site TSMC said they want to start producing 5nm in 2019 so yeah.
They could opt to go for a relatively hot/big die to hit a preferred release date, if they expect to be able to update within 12-18 months to a process shrink and cost reduction
I don't know what your basis of "next gen" is, but going from a 1.84tflop 8GB RAM 1.6 Jaguar to a 10tflop 16GB RAM 3.0 Zen2 is most assuredly enough to make next level experiences with exclusive games.
Blam
Member
Nope. Because 2D games will still continue to lag on these systems.
Negotiator
Member
This isn't true.
XB1X has a smaller die size than OG XB1. ~360mm2 isn't too big of a chip.
We still haven't seen what a "monstrous" (like 500-600mm2) APU could do...
3nm sounds like pure fantasy (quantum tunneling effects).
I'll believe it when I see it. Even IBM's 5nm will take a while.
dr_rus
Member
"3nm" is just a marketing name. We don't know the actual specs this process will have. By now TSMC have 20nm, 16nm and 12nm which are all somewhat close in their physical dimensions and differ only in architecture and tools.
Shin
Banned
I wouldn't call it "fantasy" per say, they aren't spending millions/billions for nothing.
Somewhat agrees with this because TSMC tends to be really vague/different with their process nodes.
Tarin02543
Member
I think we will see an evolution of the class system. Today you have the slim and the pro, with the ps5 we will see the following:
Just like today if you buy a Porsche 911 you can go for the entry Carrera or go for the ultimate, the RS2.
- launch system
- slim
- pro level
- Ti system - above pro
- super performance
Just like today if you buy a Porsche 911 you can go for the entry Carrera or go for the ultimate, the RS2.
Small steps is kind of the idea behind doing the Pro/New tick/tock thing.
And people are still going to be demanding Switch ports.
bitbydeath
Gold Member
Its more of a WOW, 60TF could be a thing in 2019, maybe my initial prediction of 10-12TF is quite low balled
I see a lot more people here are now willing to go higher than 10-12TF where as previously it was laughed at, now its in the possible range.
Negotiator
Member
8TF to run current-gen games at native 4K. Big difference.
Running next-gen games at native 4K will require a far more beefier machine...
LelouchZero
Member
Same, I've been hoping for a 2020+ console release as the later they release the better their hardware could be.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
I was going off memory... Yeah, the XBO's APU was still slightly larger, I had the sizes mixed up in my head... Also I meant relatively compared to the PS4, obviously 360mm isn't that big over all. Still, the bigger you go the more expensive it's going to be.
I need sleep.
Okami Haundo
Member
TF count sounds realistic, but I think 24GB of RAM is overly optimistic. Personally, I'd expect 10-12TF and 16GB of RAM at the most, but I'm also kind of expecting a 2019 launch.
A 33% increase over XB1X / Scorpio Engine GPU ( 6TF --> 8TF) isn't enough for a PS5 in 2019, much less if it comes in 2020.
tapantaola, exactly, yeah.
I think PS5 GPU will be, at minimum, 12 TFlops.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
No it isn't? PS4 is 1.84TF so 10X would mean 18.4TF.
I think it much more reasonable and realistic to expect 11-12TF tops for PS5 in a sooner rather later launch i.e. 2019/20. PS4 Pro was 3 years after PS4 and was a 2.3X boost even with a full node shrink. 3X that for PS5 with a proper new GPU architecture, new CPU and say 16GB of really fast RAM (GDDR6?) after another 3 years (2019) seems perfect to me.
Launch at the aggressive $399 price point and see it fly off the shelves.
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