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[Frankfurter]

People need to keep their expectations in check.
AMD had a 2.7 Tflops GPU ready 4 years before the PS4 launched. ~Three years from the supposed launch (in 2020), AMDs top end card gets ~13 Tflops right now. Now that card also draws ~300W and is a 500mm²+ chip, while HD5870 was below 350mm² and drew ~200W. I know this is a little simplified, but going by these numbers, I'd expect something with less than those 13 Tflops.
If they go all-in-ish, maybe we'll be looking at ~15 Tflops.

 

[Akai__]

I answered your question: more expansive, immersive and bigger open world experiences.

Don't believe me? I don't care. Just bookmark this post and keep it for future reference.

I don't believe you for a reason. You are completely ignoring how past generation switches worked and how the minimum requirements changed.

 

[Negotiator]

I don't believe you for a reason. You are completely ignoring how past generation switches worked and how the minimum requirements changed.

Oh yeah, please educate me on how much VRAM requirements have increased ever since current-gen (not cross-gen) games started becoming the norm?

I still fondly remember people saying that PS4's GPU is akin to a GTX 480 and that a GTX 660 Ti would run circles around it... I wonder how's that going for you?

Spoiler

People just never change.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/how-the-ps4-and-xbox-have-raised-pc-system-requirements/

 

[Eylos]

In what way could it have been more "cutting edge", without taking a huge loss on the hardware?



Hope PS5 manages to match a 21 billion transistor GPU, that is going to cost many thousands of dollars?

Let's not, because to do so is madness.

I didnt say to use a volta card, but to Hope that the graphics achieved is closer to that

I dont think Sony is in a hurry to abandon that 60+ million install base anytime soon. I think we got a long generation ahead of us.

You can say this to every generation change.

 

[Hermii]

You can say this to every generation change.

Hence last gen was the longest gen of all time.

With dev cycles and budgets getting larger every gen, it only makes sense to have longer gens.

 

[Skeff]

You could expect about 10-12tf in 2019 or 15tf in 2020. Numbers out of my ass but make sense.

EDIT: I expect a 2020 launch from the various technology road maps that are out there right now.

 

[owasog]

With dev cycles and budgets getting larger every gen, it only makes sense to have longer gens.

That's why I can't see a 2019 release. For example, we've only seen 2 Bioware RPGs compared to the 5 released last gen. Only 1 Bethesda open world game vs 3(or 4) last gen. And Rockstar hasn't even managed one game if you count GTA V as a last gen port.

This gen is just starting, we've barely left the crossgen stage for crying out loud!

 

[Killer Queen]

You could expect about 10-12tf in 2019 or 15tf in 2020. Numbers out of my ass but make sense.

EDIT: I expect a 2020 launch from the various technology road maps that are out there right now.

This is my opinion too.

 

[SlipperyFishes]

Yes, but can it do 240fps

Downsampled to 30.

Spoiler

i know downsampling isn’t something compatible in this context but they’d try and sell us that

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

That's why I can't see a 2019 release. For example, we've only seen 2 Bioware RPGs compared to the 5 released last gen. Only 1 Bethesda open world game vs 3(or 4) last gen. And Rockstar hasn't even managed one game if you count GTA V as a last gen port.

This gen is just starting, we've barely left the crossgen stage for crying out loud!

Which is odd given the simplified PC like make up of PS4, improved dev tools and the much touted "time to triangle". To give one example ND pumped out Uncharted trilogy plus TLOU whilst growing from ~70 to 250+ members on PS3.

I honestly don't think the games have moved on as much this gen compared to jumps with previous gens to account for this apparent slow down in output?

 

[Hermii]

Which is odd given the simplified PC like make up of PS4, improved dev tools and the much touted "time to triangle". To give one example ND pumped out Uncharted trilogy plus TLOU whilst growing from ~70 to 250+ members on PS3.

I honestly don't think the games have moved on as much this gen compared to jumps with previous gens to account for this apparent slow down in output?

All that stuff is just how hard it is to take advantage of the hardware, not making the game itself. You can’t expect anywhere near uc 2 from 1’improvents in lou 2. Early gen PS4 games are much better optimized than early PS3 games.

 

[thelastword]

8gb of ram was also laughed off when the idea was brought up

Read some of the replies in this thread. fucking lol.

Yeah, every single time I tell you...

I hope you guys link this thread when PS5 is announced.......

 

[AmyS]

RAM: 16-128GB of "Nexgen Memory"

Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/55875/amd-launch-monster-navi-10-2019-next-gen-ram/index.html

What kind of sorcery is this?!

I thought "Nexgen Memory" was HBM3 which tops out at 64GB?!

Dual GPU Navi - 64GB x2, like for a Navi version of Radeon Pro Duo.

If 128GB becomes a reality (is HBM4 a thing?), then I could see PS5 having a cost-reduced 64GB variant.

HBM4 hasn't been announced yet, but SK Hynix showed a long term HBM roadmap a few years ago that had bandwidth increasing upto 2023, which is 3-4 years on from when HBM3 is meant to happen (2019/2020).

128GB would offer a true 16x leap (like every new PS does), but 100GB optical discs (UHD BD-ROM) would probably not suffice (RAM is always smaller than the game storage medium), unless they devoted half the RAM for caching purpopes/instantaneous loading via HBCC (?)

I will say that for sure, I don't expect PS5 to have less than 32 GB RAM, and I think 64GB would be the max.

 

[ZOONAMI]

You realize the specs your listing are for like a $2000+ gpu

 

[99Luffy]

15tf would be great.
But I think we might have to look at the very real possibility that Sony and MS go the Nintendo switch route next gen..

 

[Negotiator]

Dual GPU Navi - 64GB x2, like for a Navi version of Radeon Pro Duo.

Dual Navi 10 Estimated Specifications

GPU: 7nm Navi 10 (128 NCUs) x 2 (256 NCUs total)

RAM: 32-256GB of "Nexgen Memory"

Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/55875/amd-launch-monster-navi-10-2019-next-gen-ram/index.html

The 128GB variant is a single GPU.

Maybe these numbers are fake... too good to be true.

Hell, even the RPM/2xFP16 numbers are not correct:

Performance: 100TFLOPs+ half precision, 60TFLOPs single precision

Performance: 50TFLOPs+ half precision, 30TFLOPs single precision

 

[Instro]

15tf would be great.
But I think we might have to look at the very real possibility that Sony and MS go the Nintendo switch route next gen..

Microsoft is up in the air with the performance of the One, and if the One X doesn't take off, but I can't imagine Sony will change up anything drastically on their hardware priorities given how well the PS4 has done for them.

 

[AmyS]

Dual Navi 10 Estimated Specifications

GPU: 7nm Navi 10 (128 NCUs) x 2 (256 NCUs total)

RAM: 32-256GB of "Nexgen Memory"

Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/55875/amd-launch-monster-navi-10-2019-next-gen-ram/index.html

The 128GB variant is a single GPU.

Maybe these numbers are fake... too good to be true.

Hell, even the RPM/2xFP16 numbers are not correct:

Performance: 100TFLOPs+ half precision, 60TFLOPs single precision

Performance: 50TFLOPs+ half precision, 30TFLOPs single precision

Holy shit.

Edit: certainly could be fake. I think tweaktown is probably much less reliable than even wccftech.

 

[Last_colossi]

Yeah, every single time I tell you...

I hope you guys link this thread when PS5 is announced.......

That thread is awesome to look at now.

They might be thinking way down the line. For example, if Sony and MS's next console hit in 2013, they'll last maybe up until 2019-2020.

Who knows what kind of memory games that far down will take...

Shinobi is like a damn fortune teller.


But to get back on topic I would really be surprised if the next gen consoles get even close to that number, I think we'd be looking at 15 TFLOPS with 16 to 32GB of RAM if they release in 2019 and 20TFLOPS with 32GB of RAM in 2020.

 

[Hermii]

15tf would be great.
But I think we might have to look at the very real possibility that Sony and MS go the Nintendo switch route next gen..

Not going to happen imo. The Switch uniquely makes sense for Nintendo for a lot of reasons. Their handhelds have always done better, they haven't been about power since the gamecube and it lets them unify their software development to name 3. None of those reasons are valid for Sony or MS.

 

[Liliana Eileen]

People thinking next gen will be anywhere near 20flops let alone 30 are in for a surprise. Not going to be anywhere near that for the console market.

 

[Bsigg12]

15tf would be great.
But I think we might have to look at the very real possibility that Sony and MS go the Nintendo switch route next gen..

Neither will go that route. Microsoft is moving to an iterative model and I expect to see console refreshes from them every ~3 years as new technologies become available and cheap.

For Sony, I expect them to do what Microsoft is planning. Introduce a new family of devices (your console generation) and introduce tiers of consoles, the high end or budget, all designed to run the same games at varying degrees of quality.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

All that stuff is just how hard it is to take advantage of the hardware, not making the game itself. You can’t expect anywhere near uc 2 from 1’improvents in lou 2. Early gen PS4 games are much better optimized than early PS3 games.

Yes that is correct. Sort of one of the points I was trying to make.

Was it Deano C from Ninja Theory that said with PS3 1st, 2nd and 3rd gen games would show huge improvements with 3rd gen games being amazing? And he was right.

With PS4 the simplified/standardised nature of the HW means there isn't this stark progress as the generation goes on. It is in many ways a good thing but we have all seen how disappointed we can be when a sequel of a game comes out that doesn't really show much improvement or even goes backward in some respects to allow other improvements (I saw those FM5, 6 ,7 shots earlier).

Now I know this is the reality and it isn't going to change but I have noticed the lack of output from Sony first party this gen and hope it isn't a sign of bad times to come.

 

[Laiza]

People thinking next gen will be anywhere near 20flops let alone 30 are in for a surprise. Not going to be anywhere near that for the console market.

Yeah, 10TFLOPS might be low-balling it, but 20 is completely wishful thinking. If you're looking for that kind of power you're better served looking at the high-end GPU market, not heavily standardized and power-constrained consoles.

For reference: the GTX 1080 Ti hits around 11.5 TFLOPS, and that's a $700+ GPU with a 250w TDP versus, for example, a $400 PS4 Pro that hits around 4 TFLOPs on a 150w TDP. Frankly, a PS5 with GTX 1080 Ti-level power would actually be pretty damn respectable. The CPU will likely remain a weak link, however, especially if they continue to go with laptop processors.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

XBX isn't really liquid cooled. I mean, technically vapor chamber has a small amount of liquid involved, but it's much more akin to a regular heatsink than what's usually thought as liquid cooling. Also, vapor chambers are not as esoteric as people tend to think.

Whilst I agree that a vapour chamber cooler shouldn't really be put under the same class of cooler as traditional closed-loop liquid coolers, strictly speaking, they're closer to heatpipes in terms of the heat transfer mechanics than a solid metal heatsink.

I'm sure when you said they're closer to heatsinks, what you really mean is the full CPU air cooler assembly; with CPU block, heatpipes, radiator and fans, as opposed to a solid finned-metal block that sits ontop of the processor.

Vapour chambers, like heat pipes are really designed to spread the heat, generated across the surface area of the processor, out and away from the chip. They're incredibly efficient at transferring heat (more so than closed-loop liquid cooling systems), however, they're far more limited in terms of distances they can transfer heat across (obviously) as well as their operating temperatures; since their design relies on fluid boiling within the vacuum chamber, thus they will run at the fluid boiling temperature and that's pretty much it.

Liquid cooling, relies on sensible heating of water within a closed loop. So is less efficient at removing heat (i.e. in terms of Watts transferred per unit of fluid mass). On the other hand, with liquid cooling loops, you can run at much lower temperatures by varying the fluid flowrate, thus overall cooling capacity can be higher than a vapour chamber.

 

[sneas78]

That thread is awesome to look at now.



Shinobi is like a damn fortune teller.


But to get back on topic I would really be surprised if the next gen consoles get even close to that number, I think we'd be looking at 15 TFLOPS with 16 to 32GB of RAM if they release in 2019 and 20TFLOPS with 32GB of RAM in 2020.

I was going to quote Shinobi ..as well Wow perfect prediction.

 

[jdstorm]

That's why I can't see a 2019 release. For example, we've only seen 2 Bioware RPGs compared to the 5 released last gen. Only 1 Bethesda open world game vs 3(or 4) last gen. And Rockstar hasn't even managed one game if you count GTA V as a last gen port.

This gen is just starting, we've barely left the crossgen stage for crying out loud!

Thats all a matter of perspective really. It sort of felt like last gen was split into 2 halves. 2005-2011* then 2012-2017 with that not quite aligning with Sony/Microsofts 10 year plan. However the games still came out in that same cycle.

If you make the cut off 2012 then this gen looks a lot better. Mass Effect 3, Borderlands 2, Dishonored, Destiny, Tomb Raider 2013, The Last of Us, GT6, GTAV, Journey ect

This gen just becomes a bit wierd because its prime was twice inpacted by new consoles

 

[Obliterator]

8gb of ram was also laughed off when the idea was brought up

Read some of the replies in this thread. fucking lol.

Whoa that thread is hilarious to read now in retrospect

 

[n0razi]

Highly doubt it. Unless you want to spend $600+

$300 Nintendo Switch, $500 XB1X, $1000 iPhone X all selling out... it's definitely possible

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

Whoa that thread is hilarious to read now in retrospect

The ironic thing is that those skeptics were right. Both consoles only have 5GB for games....

 

[Negotiator]

The ironic thing is that those skeptics were right. Both consoles only have 5GB for games....

By this logic, last-gen consoles didn't have 512MB of RAM for games either.

 

[bitbydeath]

You realize the specs your listing are for like a $2000+ gpu

You have to keep in mind, that GPU whether it reaches that TF on the console or not is the most likely to be put in a PS5 due to its size.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

By this logic, last-gen consoles didn't have 512MB of RAM for games either.

No they didn't, but then I don't remember complaints/warnings from devs 2.5 years before they launched that they required a certain RAM amount?

My beef here is that the devs demanded 8GB and patted themselves on the back when they "got" it but then forgot to re-complain when actually they only had 5GB!

 

[Deleted member 465307]

My randon intuition says we'll be looking at a 10-15 TFLOP GPU, a Ryzen CPU, and 16-32 GB of RAM for PS5. So I guess I'm being relatively conservative.

What I do wonder is how Nintendo fits into these next gen projections. We're seeing that Switch can easily get last gen ports and, with significant compromises, current gen ports. We're also seeing Nintendo pursue third-party support. But what happens when Switch is no longer somewhere between last gen and current gen and is actually behind both last gen and current gen? Will Nintendo have a Switch 2 ready to push them forward and somehow launch them to that inbetween space again? Will mobile tech even be capable of matching a PS4 in 2020-2021? Can Nintendo use the elusive and legendary SCDs to help with this?

I'm guessing next gen on PS5 will treat 4K as 1080p was treated this gen, eating into the power leap, and if Nintendo sticks with a 720p screen, that 9x resolution gap should make things a liiiittle easier to manage on Nintendo's hardware on the GPU side. (And maybe a smart dock to push the system to a checkerboard 4K output when docked could be used if the market demands it.) But I'm really wondering what next gen will mean for 3rd party support for Nintendo and how Nintendo plans to fit their tablet into this potential 30+ TFLOP/Ryzen future. I'm sure they're thinking a lot about this right now as they build out their third-party relationships.

 

[Negotiator]

No they didn't, but then I don't remember complaints/warnings from devs 2.5 years before they launched that they required a certain RAM amount?

My beef here is that the devs demanded 8GB and patted themselves on the back when they "got" it but then forgot to re-complain when actually they only had 5GB!

You're overthinking it.

When they say 8GB, they mean the actual hardware specification, not what's available for games.

Same goes for CPU cores and even GPU ALUs (there's a reservation there for OS functions AFAIK).

Has anyone actually complained about lack of RAM in this gen? RAM was the biggest complaint last-gen (even in the beginning, not just towards the end) and they definitely future-proofed both machines in that regard.

 

[kswiston]

OG PS4 is what? 1.8 teraflops?

Based on previous trends, I'd guess around 15 teraflops for the PS5. A bit less than 4x what the pro has. More than 8x what the OG PS4 has.

Typically, we also get around an 8x increase in RAM, but I doubt that we see more than 32GB in next gen (4x increase).

 

[Nintendo's Witch]

Yes, but can it do 240fps?

The last genius.

Shine on crazy Ken

 

[kswiston]

You're overthinking it.

When they say 8GB, they mean the actual hardware specification, not what's available for games.

Same goes for CPU cores and even GPU ALUs (there's a reservation there for OS functions AFAIK).

Has anyone actually complained about lack of RAM in this gen? RAM was the biggest complaint last-gen (even in the beginning, not just towards the end) and they definitely future-proofed both machines in that regard.

I think that the huge bump in RAM this generation is one of the reason why next gen's bump won't be that impressive. Nvidia was making 4GB video cards back in mid 2012. What's their current largest card? 12GB?

It doesn't seem feasible to expect 64GB consoles in two years (assuming late 2019 launches) if we are nowhere near that on the PC front. Even when looking at $1k+ cards. Unless we magically start seeing 32GB cards by this time next year.

 

[Negotiator]

My randon intuition says we'll be looking at a 10-15 TFLOP GPU, a Ryzen CPU, and 32-64 GB of RAM for PS5. So I guess I'm being relatively conservative.

What I do wonder is how Nintendo fits into these next gen projections. We're seeing that Switch can easily get last gen ports and, with significant compromises, current gen ports. We're also seeing Nintendo pursue third-party support. But what happens when Switch is no longer somewhere between last gen and current gen and is actually behind both last gen and current gen? Will Nintendo have a Switch 2 ready to push them forward and somehow launch them to that inbetween space again? Will mobile tech even be capable of matching a PS4 in 2020-2021? Can Nintendo use the elusive and legendary SCDs to help with this?

I'm guessing next gen on PS5 will treat 4K as 1080p was treated this gen, eating into the power leap, and if Nintendo sticks with a 720p screen, that 9x resolution gap should make things a liiiittle easier to manage on Nintendo's hardware on the GPU side. (And maybe a smart dock to push the system to a checkerboard 4K output when docked could be used if the market demands it.) But I'm really wondering what next gen will mean for 3rd party support for Nintendo and how Nintendo plans to fit their tablet into this potential 30+ TFLOP/Ryzen future. I'm sure they're thinking a lot about this right now as they build out their third-party relationships.

Nintendo is very lucky for the fact that both consoles have Jaguar cores and A57 isn't that far behind (apart from frequency and core count, of course).

I'm not sure how A72/A73 could potentially compete (?) with even a Mobile Ryzen Pro. They'd definitely need an A11-tier CPU to compete with Ryzen, but that will never happen obviously. A Xavier-like SoC would most likely bring PS4+ performance in a mobile form factor in 2020-2021, which sounds good enough for a Switch 2.

Then again, you also have to remember that PS5/XB2 will get lots of cross-gen ports during the first 2-3 years (until 2022-2023), so overall Nintendo should be fine, I think.

Hell, PS360 games are still being released to this very day (mainly sports games like Pro/Fifa/NBA etc.)

 

[Tagyhag]

8gb of ram was also laughed off when the idea was brought up

Read some of the replies in this thread. fucking lol.

Yeah, every single time I tell you...

I hope you guys link this thread when PS5 is announced.......

I mean, the fact that you guys think 8GB RAM is equivalent to a 30FLOPS GPU should tell you how above your technical knowledge this is.

Edit: Not to mention that during that time RAM was incredibly cheap for that time only (like some users mentioned), a stick that I bought around that time is more than twice the cost now. You shouldn't assume that because some users are wrong in that thread, people will be wrong about this.

That said, if next-gen is in 2025, you guys have a chance.

 

[jdstorm]

My randon intuition says we'll be looking at a 10-15 TFLOP GPU, a Ryzen CPU, and 16-32 GB of RAM for PS5. So I guess I'm being relatively conservative.

What I do wonder is how Nintendo fits into these next gen projections. We're seeing that Switch can easily get last gen ports and, with significant compromises, current gen ports. We're also seeing Nintendo pursue third-party support. But what happens when Switch is no longer somewhere between last gen and current gen and is actually behind both last gen and current gen? Will Nintendo have a Switch 2 ready to push them forward and somehow launch them to that inbetween space again? Will mobile tech even be capable of matching a PS4 in 2020-2021? Can Nintendo use the elusive and legendary SCDs to help with this?

I'm guessing next gen on PS5 will treat 4K as 1080p was treated this gen, eating into the power leap, and if Nintendo sticks with a 720p screen, that 9x resolution gap should make things a liiiittle easier to manage on Nintendo's hardware on the GPU side. (And maybe a smart dock to push the system to a checkerboard 4K output when docked could be used if the market demands it.) But I'm really wondering what next gen will mean for 3rd party support for Nintendo and how Nintendo plans to fit their tablet into this potential 30+ TFLOP/Ryzen future. I'm sure they're thinking a lot about this right now as they build out their third-party relationships.

I'm guessing Nintendo will deal with it by having a faster refresh cycle. If they launch a Switch variant every 2 years they might be OK. A 2019 Switch 2 with an upgraded CPU should put them closer to Par with the base PS4 (likely going to be the baseline for a few cross gen years)

Nintendo can then launch the "Switch 3" in 2021/2 which should push the CPU close enough to par with a 2019/20 console baseline.

Resolution will likely be stay stagnant at 720p. Potential biggest selling point could be if Nvidia gives Nintendo a good deal on a Gsync display.

Nintendo may also sell external GPUs to scale games to 1080p/4K

Nintendo games will still target Switch 1 specs for the next 5-6 years though.

Thats my bet anyway.

TLDR: BiAnnual upgrades for those that want portable AAA games. First Party and Nindie support for 5-6 years

 

[teh_pwn]

30 TFLOPs in a console is 2025 not 2020. Too much heat and cost in 2020.

 

[Carn82]

It will be souped up Raven Ridge, most likely. Which will be a massive boost compared to the jaguar architecture.

 

[TLZ]

I'm ok sticking with the PS4 pro until we have a proper leap. The visuals we have now look good enough and impressive.

No need to rush for only 10tf.

 

[K.Jack]

I didnt say to use a volta card, but to Hope that the graphics achieved is closer to that.

That's my point, though. You're pointing to a $4,000 GPU, as reference to the power level you hope to see the PS5 achieve.

This is madness.

That's like wanting SSGSS Vegeta on a Piccolo budget.

 

[Souldestroyer Reborn]

I'm more interested in what the cooling solution will be for next gen consoles.

I wonder if Sony or MS would go down a closed loop liquid cooling set-up?

 

[TakeItSlowDude]

People thinking next gen will be anywhere near 20flops let alone 30 are in for a surprise. Not going to be anywhere near that for the console market.

I don't think being near 20TFlops would be crazy with a similar power profile to the Xbox One X in late 2020 or 2021.

The transition from 14nm/16nm to 7nm looks to be more significant than the transition from 28nm to 14nm/16nm by the projected metrics of the Globalfoundries/TSCM/Samsung. Globalfoundries projections for 7nm show area and power scaling to 0.40 of 14nm, this would make a 2.5x improvement possible using the same die size and TDP. Globalfoundries looks to have 3 Gens of 7nm, with the last one being significantly reliant on EUV and aiming to have power and area improvements over Gen 1. This would make more than a 2.5x improvement possible, let be conservative and say 10%. Granted these are advertised metrics, but 14nm/16nm gave close to their advertised metric in certain power regimes.

Then there are also improvements available through architecture changes, I doubt AMD could ever pull off a single gen improvement of 1.3x like Nvidia did with Maxwell given the relative lack of resources available to their GPU engineering team. Though I don't think it would be crazy to think that Polaris to Vega to Navi could yield a 1.2x improvement.

Putting it all together: 2.5(14nm->7nm)*1.1(Gen1-Gen3 7nm)*1.2(Polaris->Navi) = 3.3 improvement per Watt and mm^2 of die, a 3.3x improvement on the Xbox One X is 20TFlops. This is a back of the envelope calculation and assumes the best when it comes to various metrics, but it shows that 20TFlops is within the possible with 7nm+ and architecture improvements.

 

[dr_rus]

HBM4 hasn't been announced yet, but SK Hynix showed a long term HBM roadmap a few years ago that had bandwidth increasing upto 2023, which is 3-4 years on from when HBM3 is meant to happen (2019/2020).

I will say that for sure, I don't expect PS5 to have less than 32 GB RAM, and I think 64GB would be the max.

I hope you do realize that they are having issues hitting HBM2 promised bandwidth for about a year now so it's not really clear how close to reality this slide even is. Then there's the fact that HBM2 is still too expensive for a wide usage and the likely outcome that whatever will come after it will probably be focused on cost reduction, not further bandwidth increase.

And that's even disregarding the simple fact that HBM will probably be too expensive for consoles for another ten or so years.

 

[Proelite]

I don't think being near 20TFlops would be crazy with a similar power profile to the Xbox One X in late 2020 or 2021.

The transition from 14nm/16nm to 7nm looks to be more significant than the transition from 28nm to 14nm/16nm by the projected metrics of the Globalfoundries/TSCM/Samsung. Globalfoundries projections for 7nm show area and power scaling to 0.40 of 14nm, this would make a 2.5x improvement possible using the same die size and TDP. Globalfoundries looks to have 3 Gens of 7nm, with the last one being significantly reliant on EUV and aiming to have power and area improvements over Gen 1. This would make more than a 2.5x improvement possible, let be conservative and say 10%. Granted these are advertised metrics, but 14nm/16nm gave close to their advertised metric in certain power regimes.

Then there are also improvements available through architecture changes, I doubt AMD could ever pull off a single gen improvement of 1.3x like Nvidia did with Maxwell given the relative lack of resources available to their GPU engineering team. Though I don't think it would be crazy to think that Polaris to Vega to Navi could yield a 1.2x improvement.

Putting it all together: 2.5(14nm->7nm)*1.1(Gen1-Gen3 7nm)*1.2(Polaris->Navi) = 3.3 improvement per Watt and mm^2 of die, a 3.3x improvement on the Xbox One X is 20TFlops. This is a back of the envelope calculation and assumes the best when it comes to various metrics, but it shows that 20TFlops is within the possible with 7nm+ and architecture improvements.

12tflop minimum, 15 tflops is what I expect, 20 best case AMD get their shit together scenario.

16 thread Zen successor at 3.0ghz
32-64GB ram
15 tflop GPU

Target native 4k, checkerboard 8k, and VR glasses with foveated rendering.

 

[Nocturno999]

My prediction is that it will be a tower of Gamecubes duck-taped together.