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ITT crowbrow explains the scientific method so that us proles can finally agree to defer morality to scientists

crowbrow

Banned
“Science” is not the monolith you believe it to be.
Well then but there are scientific consensus until proven otherwise and youtube videos don't amount as serious proof. It's a waste of time to even consider that as a serious challenge to conclusions reached through scientific research.
 

Ornlu

Banned
Just because people can't deal with opinions that don't fit in their worldview doesn't mean I'm pretending or not being real?.Quit being such snowflakes maybe, some people don't think like the mass of you, deal with it.

Nobody knows what your actual opinions are on any given subject; all we know is that you're a self-proclaimed scientist from a growing list of countries, who somehow shifts any given subject over to how bad the US is.

If you're saying that's what you genuinely believe about every topic under the sun, then shine on you crazy diamond.
 

Papa

Banned
“Science” is not the monolith you believe it to be.

There are a vast amount of scientists all of whom having varying ideas and opinions. They argue and bicker amongst themselves as well, and indeed that arguing and bickering is a very important part of the scientific process. If an idea cannot hold up under scrutiny, then it is worthless, and the only way to know if it can hold up to scrutiny is to scrutinize it.

But one cannot thoroughly scrutinize speculation, because it is ultimately a game of assumptions. You cannot objectively disprove future events until they (don’t) happen. For ANY given speculative position taken by a scientist, one can find an example of the exact opposite position being taken by an equally-qualified scientist.

Most of all, it’s not a buffet to pick and choose which bits you like and which you don’t, and which you want to include in your Yelp review.
 

lock2k

Banned
I browsed through the first page and saw him quote the Journal of the Chinese Medical Association, which seems to be a legit source.
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Sandyman

Neo Member
Is this one of those threads were basically everyone is arguing with each others google search results?

Those always screw up my targeted ads and you-tube suggestions...
Don’t you love it? It’s like that one show about the dude who has incest families beat each other up in front of a live audience only it’s the internet.
 

LordKasual

Banned
But one cannot thoroughly scrutinize speculation, because it is ultimately a game of assumptions. You cannot objectively disprove future events until they (don’t) happen. For ANY given speculative position taken by a scientist, one can find an example of the exact opposite position being taken by an equally-qualified scientist.

All of this is so, so, so wrong...what is going on in here....

Sorry, i just.....I can't let this shit slide:

But one cannot thoroughly scrutinize speculation, because it is ultimately a game of assumptions.

The only "speculation" anyone cares about as it pertains to Science is the speculation of actual scientists. And "Science is ultimately a game of assumptions" is EXTREMELY misleading because these are assumptions that are REQUIRED to be backed by overwhelming evidence.

So, the mere act of speculating does NOT mean your speculation has any merit. (More on this at the bottom.)

You cannot objectively disprove future events until they (don’t) happen.

This is complete nonsense. That's functionally no different from saying "you can't objectively say i'm not a wizard because i can't turn my kitchen table into an apple", with your only saving grace being that quantum physics maintains that there is an actual non-zero chance of that random event being possible.

There's a word in the scientific community for things that cannot be disproven.....they're called "laws". There's no clause that says we have to refrain from calling it a fact because it can be changed in the future -- that's inherent.

But as far as everyday life goes, it's completely irrelevant. If nearly all the scientists are saying something is one thing....it's effectively safe to assume it's objectively true for all intents and purposes.


Example: Newtonian gravity was a law, until it was proven objectively wrong by Einstein.....But that doesn't mean it didn't still perfectly explain the way Gravity worked on earth for engineers and every other instance imaginable at the time.


For ANY given speculative position taken by a scientist, one can find an example of the exact opposite position being taken by an equally-qualified scientist.

Equally-qualified, yes, but that does NOT mean that the opposite position has equal weight, and is the ENTIRE POINT of the scientific method as it pertains to scientific consensus.

Having a dissenting opinion does not mean you have a valid argument.



This entire quote is like, 'The Conspiracy Theorist's Handbook on Dismissing Science By Claiming It's Scientific'.


And i don't know what the fuck yall are talking about, but if this has to do with Science in POLITICS, then there's like a 99% chance that whatever "other opinions" you're talking about are complete bullshit.
 

oagboghi2

Member
I claimed the origin points towards it being in China in the same thread you are referring to but the origin of this particular virus is not what the thread is about. It is about the increasing dangers of pandemics and the factors that are making this danger increase and how unprepared the current system is to handle this type of crisis because its priorities are all fucked up.
The thread where you continued your "both sides, it's everyone fault, America is just as much to blame as China for Wuhan, etc etc" bullshit?
 

Whitesnake

Banned
And "Science is ultimately a game of assumptions" is EXTREMELY misleading

Thankfully I didn’t say that.

I said speculative science is a game of assumptions.

That’s what speculation is.

This is complete nonsense. That's functionally no different from saying "you can't objectively say i'm not a wizard because i can't turn my kitchen table into an apple", with your only saving grace being that quantum physics maintains that there is an actual non-zero chance of that random event being possible.

You’re right, there is no functional difference between saying that there is a substantial chance that the scientists are wrong about climate change causing another pandemic, and claiming that wizards exist.

Those are exactly the same statement.

Thank god I had a smart cookie like you around to confirm that those statements are, indeed, identical by every possible metric.


Equally-qualified, yes, but that does NOT mean that the opposite position has equal weight, and is the ENTIRE POINT of the scientific method as it pertains to scientific consensus.

Having a dissenting opinion does not mean you have a valid argument.

Who are you to judge the weight of each scientific proposal?

You (and the person you are arguing on behalf of) proclaim that we should not think critically or form our own opinions and should instead defer to “scientists“ for any and all matters. This ideology doesn’t really work for matter that is contentious even among scientists, and in this case the premise is entirely conjectural. Any shmuck can say “(X) is going to happen!”. If that is the barrier to entry for something being accepted as science, then surely you must believe that Nostradamus is the greatest academic mind in the history of humanity, to the point of making Einstein look like a water-headed lobotomite.

On matters on conjecture, especially the future effects of climate change, the alarmist scientists do not have a great track record. How many climate-induced doomsdays were supposed to have happened by now? How many are still set to happen? Are they still holding on to “12 years”, or have they finally moved on to a further date that makes them look slightly less ridiculous? This shit reminds me of Y2K or Harold Camping.

Since you seem to have a hard time with reading comprehension, let me perfectly clear. I am not saying that we should never listen to scientists. I’m not saying that climate change isn’t real. Hell, I’m not even saying that they’re necessarily wrong about this particular claim.

What I am saying is that I know better than to blindly believe the words of politicized scientists making alarmist claims speculating large-scale threats to humanity. Claims which are then pushed by mainstream media because headlines that convey the message of “OMG humanity will be wiped out” tend to get a lot of clicks and viewtime from stupid people.

Perhaps you should spend less time talking about how awful my skepticism is, and more time criticizing the alarmism that’s actually been making climate-change discourse a complete shitshow.
 
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Papa

Banned
You (and the person you are arguing on behalf of) proclaim that we should not think critically or form our own opinions and should instead defer to “scientists“ for any and all matters.

This is the crux of the issue. They then want to interpret the scientists’ opinions for us and chastise us when we say “hold on a minute”. They approach science as though it’s a religion, which is the most unscientific thing one could do.
 

crowbrow

Banned
You (and the person you are arguing on behalf of) proclaim that we should not think critically or form our own opinions and should instead defer to “scientists“ for any and all matters.
I can entertain criticism to scientific theories and methods, afterall theories are just theories but then I expect a serious criticism not decontextualized youtube videos of a garbage truck dumping waste on a river to counter decades of scientific research in climate change and the destruction of the environment. Being open to serious critical approaches is not the same as having your mind open to any garbage (pun intended) a random forum poster throws your way.
 

LordKasual

Banned
Thankfully I didn’t say that.

I said speculative science is a game of assumptions.

That’s what speculation is.

See, the whole reason i bothered replying is because your logic is slanted towards a decidedly non-scientific conclusion....I couldn't confirm it in my first post which is why my answers weren't specific to YOU, but you've confirmed what i feared by your responses.

This is a long ass post with all these quotes so imma spoiler this:

You’re right, there is no functional difference between saying that there is a substantial chance that the scientists are wrong about climate change causing another pandemic, and claiming that wizards exist.

Those are exactly the same statement.

Thank god I had a smart cookie like you around to confirm that those statements are, indeed, identical by every possible metric.

The statements are NOT identical in reality, but they follow the same fallacy which seems to be core in your argument.

Who are you to judge the weight of each scientific proposal?

^ And here is where it starts.

You (and the person you are arguing on behalf of).....

first off, i have absolutely no clue who you're arguing with. I'm literally only replying to you.

.....proclaim that we should not think critically or form our own opinions and should instead defer to “scientists“ for any and all matters. This ideology doesn’t really work for matter that is contentious even among scientists, and in this case the premise is entirely conjectural. Any shmuck can say “(X) is going to happen!”. If that is the barrier to entry for something being accepted as science, then surely you must believe that Nostradamus is the greatest academic mind in the history of humanity, to the point of making Einstein look like a water-headed lobotomite.

And this is the conclusion i was alluding to, and i saw it coming a mile away from the language you used in the first post i quoted. See, the problem with your logic is that you have a very abstract concept of what "contentious" means in the context of science.

I think, in your mind, this concept is alot less rigid than it actually is in practice. You're setting yourself up to be able to say "if they can't claim it with 100% certainty, then I don't have to take their conclusion into consideration with any more weight than another". Which is a strawman position to take, firstly because no science is "100%", but mainly because it essentially means that you're able to bypass the most important part of the scientific process -- Scientific Consensus.

Multiverse theory is contentious. Black Holes are contentious. The design of reactors pursuing fusion energy on earth, VERY contentious.

Climate change is NOT a contentious subject in science, and no amount of saying otherwise will change this because the overwhelming majority of scientists all assert the same thing. You can argue about the implications all you like, but the CONSENSUS is:

1) it's definitely happening
2) we are definitely causing it, and
3) it's going to be very bad for every living thing on earth when it reaches a certain point.

saying "I dont deny the science" but then crying over the specifics of #3 is fucking asinine because if you believe any one part of the science that confirms this, it's almost impossible to veer away from an endgame that isn't catastrophically bad. That's just a fact.

On matters on conjecture, especially the future effects of climate change, the alarmist scientists do not have a great track record. How many climate-induced doomsdays were supposed to have happened by now? How many are still set to happen? Are they still holding on to “12 years”, or have they finally moved on to a further date that makes them look slightly less ridiculous? This shit reminds me of Y2K or Harold Camping.

If you're going to focus on alarmist scientists, then why aren't you focusing on the comparatively quiet ones who have been echoing the same things for decades, and who's "WORST CASE SCENARIO OUTCOME" projections are consistently beaten and replaced with even more ridiculous "worst case scenarios"? The effects of climate change have been wrecking this planet for YEARS.......just not yet to the point where it actively is wrecking humans, which are famous for surviving regardless of minute changes that would drive a lesser species to extinction. But at that point it will already be recursively accelerating and far too late to do anything about it.

So if you claim to actually pay attention to the opinions of "scientists", why do you choose to only take the accounts of THE most extreme and politicized scientists you can find? Especially when you know that the scientific community that compiles and engines all this data into readable predictions are abundant? I don't buy it.

Since you seem to have a hard time with reading comprehension, let me perfectly clear. I am not saying that we should never listen to scientists. I’m not saying that climate change isn’t real. Hell, I’m not even saying that they’re necessarily wrong about this particular claim.

What I am saying is that I know better than to blindly believe the words of politicized scientists making alarmist claims speculating large-scale threats to humanity. Claims which are then pushed by mainstream media because headlines that convey the message of “OMG humanity will be wiped out” tend to get a lot of clicks and viewtime from stupid people.

Then don't listen to the alarmists. Fucking done, wasn't that easy?

There are hundreds of peer reviewed papers with citations on climate science that end in potentially horrible scenarios for humanity that you can go read for yourself without all the dumbfuck screaming going on between non-scientists. You have access to Google just like everyone else.

It sounds to me like your decision on who to pay attention to is guided more by politics than by actual science. Just because one side has "alarmists" doesn't change anything.

There were "alarmists" about nuclear weapons. Did the world end? No. Are nuclear weapons a severe threat to human civilization? Absolutely. We literally go to war over the possibility of them.

Perhaps you should spend less time talking about how awful my skepticism is, and more time criticizing the alarmism that’s actually been making climate-change discourse a complete shitshow.

Honestly, i don't really give a fuck. Why i should be vocally responsible for the idiots on one side when NOBODY seems to be responsible for the idiots on the other, who instead of being alarmist for heeding scientists are just actively dismissive, to the point we have entire swathes of stupid ass humans taking the opinions of literal politicians with ZERO scientific background at face value, over people who dedicate their lives to informing the public/governments on how to keep humanity safe. The "other side" is actively fueling an anti-science sentiment in the nation. If you think alarmists forcing people to think about the environment more is worse than encouraging fucking idiots to believe literally whatever they want to, then i don't really know what to say to you.

Anyway, anyone who has actually (ACTUALLY) read any of the real science on this would understand that the real threat of climate change is not the weather, but the destablizing effects it's going to have on the ecosystems and relatively stable world economy that absolutely cannot deal with the pressure of a globally changing climate.

And also, honestly? I didn't even know you were a skeptic. But like i said, the language you used in your original post made it very obvious that you likely were. "Skeptical" and "Scientific" are NOT the same thing. Inquisitiveness is far more important, skepticism is just something that naturally follows.
 
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Whitesnake

Banned
See, the whole reason i bothered replying is because your logic is slanted towards a decidedly non-scientific conclusion....I couldn't confirm it in my first post which is why my answers weren't specific to YOU, but you've confirmed what i feared by your responses.

This is a long ass post with all these quotes so imma spoiler this:

The statements are NOT identical in reality, but they follow the same fallacy which seems to be core in your argument.



^ And here is where it starts.



first off, i have absolutely no clue who you're arguing with. I'm literally only replying to you.



And this is the conclusion i was alluding to, and i saw it coming a mile away from the language you used in the first post i quoted. See, the problem with your logic is that you have a very abstract concept of what "contentious" means in the context of science.

I think, in your mind, this concept is alot less rigid than it actually is in practice. You're setting yourself up to be able to say "if they can't claim it with 100% certainty, then I don't have to take their conclusion into consideration with any more weight than another". Which is a strawman position to take, firstly because no science is "100%", but mainly because it essentially means that you're able to bypass the most important part of the scientific process -- Scientific Consensus.

Multiverse theory is contentious. Black Holes are contentious. The design of reactors pursuing fusion energy on earth, VERY contentious.

Climate change is NOT a contentious subject in science, and no amount of saying otherwise will change this because the overwhelming majority of scientists all assert the same thing. You can argue about the implications all you like, but the CONSENSUS is:

1) it's definitely happening
2) we are definitely causing it, and
3) it's going to be very bad for every living thing on earth when it reaches a certain point.

saying "I dont deny the science" but then crying over the specifics of #3 is fucking asinine because if you believe any one part of the science that confirms this, it's almost impossible to veer away from an endgame that isn't catastrophically bad. That's just a fact.



If you're going to focus on alarmist scientists, then why aren't you focusing on the comparatively quiet ones who have been echoing the same things for decades, and who's "WORST CASE SCENARIO OUTCOME" projections are consistently beaten and replaced with even more ridiculous "worst case scenarios"? The effects of climate change have been wrecking this planet for YEARS.......just not yet to the point where it actively is wrecking humans, which are famous for surviving regardless of minute changes that would drive a lesser species to extinction. But at that point it will already be recursively accelerating and far too late to do anything about it.

So if you claim to actually pay attention to the opinions of "scientists", why do you choose to only take the accounts of THE most extreme and politicized scientists you can find? Especially when you know that the scientific community that compiles and engines all this data into readable predictions are abundant? I don't buy it.



Then don't listen to the alarmists. Fucking done, wasn't that easy?

There are hundreds of peer reviewed papers with citations on climate science that end in potentially horrible scenarios for humanity that you can go read for yourself without all the dumbfuck screaming going on between non-scientists. You have access to Google just like everyone else.

It sounds to me like your decision on who to pay attention to is guided more by politics than by actual science. Just because one side has "alarmists" doesn't change anything.

There were "alarmists" about nuclear weapons. Did the world end? No. Are nuclear weapons a severe threat to human civilization? Absolutely. We literally go to war over the possibility of them.



Honestly, i don't really give a fuck. Why i should be vocally responsible for the idiots on one side when NOBODY seems to be responsible for the idiots on the other, who instead of being alarmist for heeding scientists are just actively dismissive, to the point we have entire swathes of stupid ass humans taking the opinions of literal politicians with ZERO scientific background at face value, over people who dedicate their lives to informing the public/governments on how to keep humanity safe. The "other side" is actively fueling an anti-science sentiment in the nation. If you think alarmists forcing people to think about the environment more is worse than encouraging fucking idiots to believe literally whatever they want to, then i don't really know what to say to you.

Anyway, anyone who has actually (ACTUALLY) read any of the real science on this would understand that the real threat of climate change is not the weather, but the destablizing effects it's going to have on the ecosystems and relatively stable world economy that absolutely cannot deal with the pressure of a globally changing climate.

And also, honestly? I didn't even know you were a skeptic. But like i said, the language you used in your original post made it very obvious that you likely were. "Skeptical" and "Scientific" are NOT the same thing. Inquisitiveness is far more important, skepticism is just something that naturally follows.

You still seem to have this problem where you believe I should relinquish all thought, because of course scientists will do the thinking for me, but you are still unable to determine which scientists that does and does not apply to. Why should I trust your judgement when you and clownbrow are arguing that we should always defer to “science”? You believe we should defer to science right up until the science disagrees with you? This is the core problem with this line of thinking, you appeal to authority (“scientists know better than you, so thus their argument is infallible”) until the authority disagrees with you, and then you appeal to popularity (“okay so these scientists who disagree with me are fallible, but the scientific consensus is infallible”) even though firstly you haven’t proved that this hypothesis is even all that popular (a grand total of two opinions from scientists have been provided that support the claim) and secondly you haven’t taken into account that a consensus can still be wrong, especially of the scientists are being influenced or have some ulterior motive. A scientist has a lot to gain by making shocking statements that appeal to existing biases.

You have proclaimed that both the scientists denying the effects of climate change AND the scientists decrying the end times are both wrong. You do this without evidence and without an argument. The fact that you did that shows that you support my core point; You agree that the fact that a scientist says something does not mean we should immediately trust it.

Similarly, I do not trust this particular scientist claiming that climate change will create circumstances that will cause another pandemic, for much the same reason I don’t trust the ones saying the world will end in 12 years. It’s conjecture built on shaky grounds that isn’t really useful by itself, and will pretty much only ever see use by either the mainstream media, who will use it as clickbait, or fools on the internet who will try to use this alarmism to try to bolster their arguments regarding climate change by saying “see, this scientist says it’ll cause the end times soon, so any argument I make regarding climate change’s severity must be true!”

Oncemore, that which we call “science” is not a monolith by any metric.


Also “skeptical” in this case means skeptical of the claim that climate change will directly cause another black plague. You seem to think the term ”skeptic” implies something more than that, but it does not.
 
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LordKasual

Banned
You still seem to have this problem where you believe I should relinquish all thought, because of course scientists will do the thinking for me, but you are still unable to determine which scientists that does and does not apply to. Why should I trust your judgement when you and clownbrow are arguing that we should always defer to “science”? You believe we should defer to science right up until the science disagrees with you? This is the core problem with this line of thinking, you appeal to authority (“scientists know better than you, so thus their argument is infallible”) until the authority disagrees with you, and then you appeal to popularity (“okay so these scientists who disagree with me are fallible, but the scientific consensus is infallible”) even though firstly you haven’t proved that this hypothesis is even all that popular (a grand total of two opinions from scientists have been provided that support the claim) and secondly you haven’t taken into account that a consensus can still be wrong, especially of the scientists are being influenced or have some ulterior motive. A scientist has a lot to gain by making shocking statements that appeal to existing biases.

The concept of scientific consensus is a result of peer review and integrity, it's basically saying "we have all beat our heads across this from different angles, and this is the aggregate of our best interpretations of what's right and wrong", from the mouths of supporters and skeptics alike.

The thing that always gets me about people who argue against consensus is that it's not as though you're just blindly accepting the word of some unknown group of scientists -- this is typically PEER REVIEWED and PUBLISHED work. They have citations, they have names, they have references. You can literally read it for yourself. Don't agree? You can find papers to the contrary. This is the beauty of science, and while this isn't available for ALL subjects (as some get more attention than others, or have harder research to publish work for), Climate Change in particular is a subject that has no shortage of material.

Choosing to give more merit to what's popular in the scientific community isn't "appealing to authority" or popularity....it's just usually the smartest choice, as the heavy lifting was already done for you....and yes, by people who are smarter than you.

But that's not to say you HAVE to listen to them...REAL scientists do not announce conclusions without evidence. Else they'd be no different from regular people with regular opinions.

You have proclaimed that both the scientists denying the effects of climate change AND the scientists decrying the end times are both wrong. You do this without evidence and without an argument. The fact that you did that shows that you support my core point; You agree that the fact that a scientist says something does not mean we should immediately trust it.

I have done no such thing. I've only suggested that the evidence for climate change being a real thing, and evidence for the effects being catastrophic is abundant....and it is.

And I didn't provide you with any sources because that's not my fucking job, dude. You have access to the same resources as I do. If you hand me CREDITABLE information contrary to what i'm saying from sources that are deemed scientifically sound, i will read it and respond accordingly.

Similarly, I do not trust this particular scientist claiming that climate change will create circumstances that will cause another pandemic, for much the same reason I don’t trust the ones saying the world will end in 12 years. It’s conjecture built on shaky grounds that isn’t really useful by itself, and will pretty much only ever see use by either the mainstream media, who will use it as clickbait, or fools on the internet who will try to use this alarmism to try to bolster their arguments regarding climate change by saying “see, this scientist says it’ll cause the end times soon, so any argument I make regarding climate change’s severity must be true!”

Oncemore, that which we call “science” is not a monolith by any metric.

Homework!

copy paste these into google:

"effect of arctic ice on global temperature"
"effect of carbon emissions on global temperature"
"thermohaline circulation climate change"
"Ocean carbon sink"
"methane greenhouse gas"
"permafrost methane"
"climate destabilization" or "climate tipping point"
"climate change positive feedback"
"climate change earth timelapse"
"climate change ecosystem collapse"
"economic effects of climate destablization"
"climate change coastal cities"

If you can honestly research all of this and conclude that there is no reason to take serious action, then there's nothing much else to chat about. And if you choose to be a "science" or "logic" minded individual, yet you only choose to be informed by "extremists" and "alarmists", then i think you've got some work to do.

I understand you're angry at alarmists, but i do not see what they have to do with actual scientists. In fact, i don't even understand how you conflate the two.

We're living in a time where The Flu+1 has brought society and the economy to its fucking knees and people still think its a joke lol
 
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Whitesnake

Banned
Don't agree? You can find papers to the contrary.

I said literally this exact same thing in the comment that started this conversation, but you told me earlier that I cannot trust those papers, with the implication being that I can only trust the ones that came to the same conclusion that you did.


And I didn't provide you with any sources because that's not my fucking job, dude.

My point wasn’t that you should’ve provided sources, dum-dum, my point was that you dismissed those scientific positions entirely, which has a way higher burden of proof than me saying “I’m not sure this prediction will be accurate”.

If you’re willing to just deny the findings of these scientists out-of-hand, surely you can sympathize with me being skeptical about one specific claim?


If you can honestly research all of this and conclude that there is no reason to take serious action, then there's nothing much else to chat about.

I’ve said nothing about climate change or taking action. I’ve only ever discussed the merit of this specific claim that global warming will cause another pandemic.

That fact that you somehow read that as “I don’t believe in climate change, period” says an awful lot about your mindset.


We're living in a time where The Flu+1 has brought society and the economy to its fucking knees and people still think its a joke lol

The Wuhan virus has nothing to do with climate change.

The prediction you are defending states that human expansion will cause more animals to wander into human settlement, thus increasing both direct and indirect interaction between animals and humans, which would be a vector for another virus.

THIS virus is believed to have been transmitted from a dead bat at a wetmarket. The bat was actively sought and killed by humans, and did not transfer the virus until it was dead and sold. These conditions would’ve happened regardless of climate change.
 
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I can entertain criticism to scientific theories and methods, afterall theories are just theories but then I expect a serious criticism not decontextualized youtube videos of a garbage truck dumping waste on a river to counter decades of scientific research in climate change and the destruction of the environment. Being open to serious critical approaches is not the same as having your mind open to any garbage (pun intended) a random forum poster throws your way.
You provide less evidence to your nonsense than terrible YT video. Less. Let that sink in. Less.
 
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